The coalition will never win the federal government again.

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BlueBayou

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Apr 28, 2016
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Albo might not make it to 2025, his own party will see to that? The knives are already out as Penny Wong looms large behind him, at some point, the strings will break and Albo will get the heave-ho. Not at the next election, but by his own colleagues! It won't take long before people realise what a terrible mistake they have just made, in the meantime get ready for some very tough times and some lunacy never before seen in Australia.
You don't know much about Australian political processes do ya? Do you enjoy flouting your idiocy?

Wong is a Senator. Cannot be PM. The ALP have a process in place to prevent rotating leaders.
 

Pie eyed

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Please elect Dutton as leader. PLease.
Dutton is a massive target.
Has nothing going for him at all in a modern society.
30% of his base will be dead before he has a chance.

It is now so blatantly obvious how ot of touch the Libs are that they think moving further to the right is going to get them there.
 

Pie eyed

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What will paranoid lefities do to entertain themselves for the next three years? No Trump, no ScoMo...it will be fascinating.
I will spit chewed up crayfish at your avatar and then sing a little victory song in memory of your abject "stupid campaignerery".

You can drown in the sea of anal lube you have been wallowing in, on the cooks line at Maccas while posting your fictional income.
 

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QuietB

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I get that, I'm not conspiracy theorizing.

More, they're not a sustainable force beyond one-two elections unless their revenue streams are capable of sustaining attacks from the major parties. Good representation only gets you so far when your opponents can hit you in the media and in public, especially when you now are not an unknown but have a record behind you.
Who was the last independent that was a failure? They are all pretty good - even Katter does a job for his electorate.
 

Seeds

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The notion of the Libs never winning federally again is a nonsense:

1) the ALP is likely to have a 1 seat - maybe 2 seat - majority, and this is off the back of one of the worst liberal governments since federation. This isnt a lot of margin to claw back, esp as the vast majority of the crossbench is conservative.

2) independents are rarely a conversion to long term "independence". their support is tied to their personality and personal connection to the community, and even if this is strong, there is no guarantee they will remain long term (ie Rex Patrick and Tony Windsor)

3) The coalition still speak for a third of the population, with another 10% supporting the far right. This is too big a base to disappear entirely. As we saw with the ALP after the DLP split, and the QLD conservatives after the nationals corruption implosion, parties reform, rebuild, and adapt


the reports of the Liberals death has been greatly exaggerated
Its not 1-2 seats. Libs need to claw back 15-20 seats To surpass labor. Its currently 72-52. Not 72-70.

we need to ignore the whole majority concept in a system with 4 parties.

if the libs go after the teals and get them back they may well lose the nationals in the process. They are 20 seats behind.
 

Ned_Flanders

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Its not 1-2 seats. Libs need to claw back 15-20 seats To surpass labor. Its currently 72-52. Not 72-70.

we need to ignore the whole majority concept in a system with 4 parties.

if the libs go after the teals and get them back they may well lose the nationals in the process. They are 20 seats behind.

For every Steggal there is a Patrick or a Phelps. A lot of these teal seats will return to the libs just because that's their natural party of preference.
 

Gethelred

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Who was the last independent that was a failure? They are all pretty good - even Katter does a job for his electorate.
At no point did I say failed or failure.

Katter's electorate is unique. Other electorates have not had independents consistently. The major parties have the funding and the metrics to know when and where to target for maximum effect, and the Teals have no record at present. Every one of them becomes vulnerable should their governance fail to reach their rhetoric; at this point, they just ousted an unpopular member of a three term government on two issues, ICAC and climate.

Next election, unless Albo fails to accomplish these two aims, what's does incumbancy bring that cannot be brought by the major parties, pooling money and porkbarrelling into an electorate for their votes?
 

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Coolangatta

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At no point did I say failed or failure.

Katter's electorate is unique. Other electorates have not had independents consistently. The major parties have the funding and the metrics to know when and where to target for maximum effect, and the Teals have no record at present. Every one of them becomes vulnerable should their governance fail to reach their rhetoric; at this point, they just ousted an unpopular member of a three term government on two issues, ICAC and climate.

Next election, unless Albo fails to accomplish these two aims, what's does incumbancy bring that cannot be brought by the major parties, pooling money and porkbarrelling into an electorate for their votes?
Accountability and trust: something Morrison bulldozed.
 

Seeds

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For every Steggal there is a Patrick or a Phelps. A lot of these teal seats will return to the libs just because that's their natural party of preference.
But it has to happen 15-20 times while not losing any other seats. If there is a phelps for every steggall there still is another 8 seats to find. Not 1-2.

ps. Phelps seat is now in independents hands. Libs didnt get it back for long. Phelps just got it early cos of the turnball debacle.
 

Ned_Flanders

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But it has to happen 15-20 times while not losing any other seats. If there is a phelps for every steggall there still is another 8 seats to find. Not 1-2.

ps. Phelps seat is now in independents hands. Libs didnt get it back for long. Phelps just got it early cos of the turnball debacle.

They don't need a majority. Teal Indi's will back a liberal govt in supply. They just need to get close enough that they only need the conservative indi's
 

Gethelred

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Accountability and trust: something Morrison bulldozed.
... two things that, while they matter to me, don't seem to matter to the electorate outside of this specific electoral cycle.

I genuinely hope this election signifies change for the better, but I'm not holding my breath. Three years is a long time, and if Albo solves the issues that saw them elected in the first place what differentiates them from a sitting member from a major party, other than a Port Adelaide colour scheme?
 

Coolangatta

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... two things that, while they matter to me, don't seem to matter to the electorate outside of this specific electoral cycle.

I genuinely hope this election signifies change for the better, but I'm not holding my breath. Three years is a long time, and if Albo solves the issues that saw them elected in the first place what differentiates them from a sitting member from a major party, other than a Port Adelaide colour scheme?
Helping Albo solve those issues by mutual support instead of trying to tear it down with hyperpartisan insanity, there's your difference. If they thought the moderate Libs could do the job, they'd still be in power.
 

BigVic

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Its not 1-2 seats. Libs need to claw back 15-20 seats To surpass labor. Its currently 72-52. Not 72-70.

we need to ignore the whole majority concept in a system with 4 parties.

if the libs go after the teals and get them back they may well lose the nationals in the process. They are 20 seats behind.
It‘s a mountain to climb in 2025 and more supposedly safe seats could turn Teal or Green.
 

Bombermania

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For every Steggal there is a Patrick or a Phelps. A lot of these teal seats will return to the libs just because that's their natural party of preference.

Eventually the teal seats will go home but it might be a few terms unless they are terrible local MP's however if they do the local stuff well then they might hold their seats for awhile.
 
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