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Wow... people are naive.

Firstly, on Peter Dutton becoming leader. People used to think that Tony Abbott was unelectable as Prime Minister. He was literally known as "the mad monk". Not only did he end up opposition leader, but he ended up Prime Minister. You can argue about how terrible a Prime Minister he was, but he still got there. And the Liberals managed to carve out three terms on the back of Abbott's win. Make no mistake about it... Dutton can win an election and that should be a very, very scary prospect.
I totally get why Dutton is being touted as the federal opposition leader.

Remember that from Kevin07 to December 2009, Nelson and Turnbull (both moderates) as opposition leaders were never able to land a significant hit on Rudd - who enjoyed high approval ratings throughout most of this period.

In December 2009, Abbott (right-wing) becomes opposition leader and, over the course of the next six months, he is able to land a number of blows on Rudd and turn around the approval ratings to the point where Rudd was knifed internally - inciting three years of public instability that tarnished the federal Labor brand for the next decade and losing a net 28 seats over the subsequent two elections where Abbott ran as opposition leader.

So based on this precedent - do you go for a moderate simp or a right-wing attack dog?

Personally, I think the media landscape, social values and maybe even economic values, have shifted significantly over the last decade - to the extent that Dutton may not have the same success as Abbott - but we are also entering a very uncertain geopolitical and economic era - one in which a Dutton like figure could potentially thrive.
 
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Ned_Flanders

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I totally get why Dutton is being touted as the federal opposition leader.

Remember that from Kevin07 to December 2009, Nelson and Turnbull (both moderates) as opposition leaders were never able to land a significant hit on Rudd - who enjoyed high approval ratings throughout most of this period.

In December 2009, Abbott (right-wing) becomes opposition leader and, over the course of the next six months, he is able to land a number of blows on Rudd and turn around the approval ratings to the point where Rudd was knifed internally - inciting three years of public instability that tarnished the federal Labor brand for the next decade and losing a net 28 seats over the subsequent two elections where Abbott ran as opposition leader.

So based on this precedent - do you go for a moderate simp or a right-wing attack dog?

Personally, I think the media landscape, social values and maybe even economic values, have shifted significantly over the last decade - to the extent that Dutton may not have the same success as Abbott - but we are also entering a very uncertain geopolitical and economic era - one in which a Dutton like figure could potentially thrive.

That's not just it. Who is a moderate in the libs who can take control of the party and potentially lead the nation?

Tudge is now the most senior moderate in the lower house.
 

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nut

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Do the 20 MPs and xx senators in the lnp queensland get to vote both for lib leader and nats leader?

They’ll have to split up surely ?

Or do they go completely stupid and merge across the country ?
 

Ned_Flanders

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Do the 20 MPs and xx senators in the lnp queensland get to vote both for lib leader and nats leader?

I'd assume they vote for the liberal leader.

the LNP is a division of the liberal party, but an affiliate of the national party
 

Ned_Flanders

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Do the 20 MPs and xx senators in the lnp queensland get to vote both for lib leader and nats leader?

They’ll have to split up surely ?

Or do they go completely stupid and merge across the country ?

I'd assume they vote for the liberal leader.

the LNP is a division of the liberal party, but an affiliate of the national party

okay, its messier

as an LNP member, you choose to align yourself with either the Nats or the Libs. Its why Truss was the Nats leader at one time

a curious note however, some have previously considered having the LNP members sit as their own party (not liberal or national). given their dominance now, be interesting if this comes up again
 

Blue1980

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The LNP will win the 2025 federal election. The ALP will be too busy drinking their own bath water to notice that the public support has evaporated just like KRudd the dud.

Continue to dream.

Will LNP achieve this by going ultra right?
 

Xtreme

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Continue to dream.

Will LNP achieve this by going ultra right?

They'll win because the public will get sick of Albo forgetting the rba cash rate and unemployment figures. The nail in the coffin will be when he gets busted lifting his speech from Independence Day!
 

QuietB

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okay, its messier

as an LNP member, you choose to align yourself with either the Nats or the Libs. Its why Truss was the Nats leader at one time

a curious note however, some have previously considered having the LNP members sit as their own party (not liberal or national). given their dominance now, be interesting if this comes up again
What are the actual numbers?

Are the Nationals a chance to become the senior coalition partner?

There are 26 Liberals
10 Nationals
21 LNPQ

How many of that 21 are Nationals? How close are they to controlling the coalition?
 

Ned_Flanders

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What are the actual numbers?

Are the Nationals a chance to become the senior coalition partner?

There are 26 Liberals
10 Nationals
21 LNPQ

How many of that 21 are Nationals? How close are they to controlling the coalition?

from wiki:

As of February 2022 in the current parliament, out of the LNP's 29 federal MPs and Senators, 21 sit with the Liberals while eight sit with the Nationals. The eight LNP MPs and Senators who sit with the Nationals are:

 

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QuietB

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from wiki:

As of February 2022 in the current parliament, out of the LNP's 29 federal MPs and Senators, 21 sit with the Liberals while eight sit with the Nationals. The eight LNP MPs and Senators who sit with the Nationals are:

I don't believe only 8 Queenslanders sit with the Nationals.

Surely all of Leichhardt, Cappricornia, Herbert, Dawson, Maranoa, Flynn, Wide Bay, Hinkler, Groom, Wright, Longman, Fisher and others are National seats. All this secrecy is ridiculous.
 

Ned_Flanders

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I don't believe only 8 Queenslanders sit with the Nationals.

Surely all of Leichhardt, Cappricornia, Herbert, Dawson, Maranoa, Flynn, Wide Bay, Hinkler, Groom, Wright, Longman, Fisher and others are National seats. All this secrecy is ridiculous.

its not a secret - its on wiki after all :)

While incumbent MPs retained their previous federal affiliations, the LNP has worked out an informal agreement with its federal counterparts regarding the affiliations of newly elected members. Members who regain seats from Labor will sit with the previous Coalition MP's party – i.e., if the LNP takes a seat off Labor that was previously held by a Liberal, the LNP member will sit with the Liberals. A division of seats was decided upon for new seats or seats that have never been won by the Coalition.[22] In practice, most LNP MPs from Brisbane and the Gold Coast sit with the Liberals, while those from country seats usually sit with the Nationals.

The party has considered forming a separate party room in the Federal Parliament (i.e., separate from the federal Nationals who are formed by NSW and Victorian members). As a separate party the LNP would be the second largest party of the Coalition and would theoretically have a claim to the Deputy Prime Minister's post in any Coalition government.[23]

Llew O'Brien sat with the Nationals until 10 February 2020. He has since opted to sit within the Coalition party room, but not with the Nationals or Liberals, following his call for a leadership spill against Michael McCormack the week before. O'Brien rejoined the federal Nationals parliamentary party in December 2020.




And one issue that is raising its head is the merged Liberal National Party in Queensland.

On polling day, those people north of the border will vote for a single candidate from the combined party. There will be no three-cornered contests, and candidates will campaign under a LNP masthead.

But once in Canberra, MPs have to choose a party room.

It will work like this:

Current MPs, who are re-elected, will sit in the same party room they are in now.

If the Conservatives take a seat off Labor which has previously been held by the Coalition, the new LNP MP will sit in the party room where the former conservative MP sat.

The third category involves those MPs who win in new seats, and the Coalition says that has been negotiated amicably on an electorate-by-electorate basis, principally on where the boundaries fall. If the Conservatives take Flynn off Labor it will add to the National Party room in Canberra; and if Wright is won by the LNP, the victorious MP will sit with the Liberals.

It seems straight up and down. But let's take these two examples.

Firstly, an environmental issue which might ignite differences between the traditional National and Liberal view, in the way that the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme did. The most prominent National Senator, Barnaby Joyce, highlighted the deep divisions between his party and many in the Liberal Party.

Secondly, it was also Nationals Senator Barnaby Joyce who spoke a different language to his Liberal party frontbench colleagues on the economy.

His change of portfolios won't change it as an issue, once the election campaign swings into order.

Indeed Labor insiders say they will deliberately try and "drive a wedge'' between the two federal Coalition parties on those two fronts, and was now "scouting around for a big environmental issue'' to replace the CPRS ahead of the campaign.

Those on the Coalition campaign team dismiss the threat saying there were as many divisions within the Liberal party as there were between the two Coalition parties on the CPRS and Tony Abbott's leadership had put that issue to rest.

The LNP had also suffered no policy differences since its birth almost two years ago, and it would not be an issue in voters' minds, according to the Coalition.

That might or might not be true, but two MPs from the State Party quit this month to become independents, saying the LNP had lost its way, and behind the scenes differences continue to simmer.
 

QuietB

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its not a secret - its on wiki after all :)

While incumbent MPs retained their previous federal affiliations, the LNP has worked out an informal agreement with its federal counterparts regarding the affiliations of newly elected members. Members who regain seats from Labor will sit with the previous Coalition MP's party – i.e., if the LNP takes a seat off Labor that was previously held by a Liberal, the LNP member will sit with the Liberals. A division of seats was decided upon for new seats or seats that have never been won by the Coalition.[22] In practice, most LNP MPs from Brisbane and the Gold Coast sit with the Liberals, while those from country seats usually sit with the Nationals.

The party has considered forming a separate party room in the Federal Parliament (i.e., separate from the federal Nationals who are formed by NSW and Victorian members). As a separate party the LNP would be the second largest party of the Coalition and would theoretically have a claim to the Deputy Prime Minister's post in any Coalition government.[23]

Llew O'Brien sat with the Nationals until 10 February 2020. He has since opted to sit within the Coalition party room, but not with the Nationals or Liberals, following his call for a leadership spill against Michael McCormack the week before. O'Brien rejoined the federal Nationals parliamentary party in December 2020.




And one issue that is raising its head is the merged Liberal National Party in Queensland.

On polling day, those people north of the border will vote for a single candidate from the combined party. There will be no three-cornered contests, and candidates will campaign under a LNP masthead.

But once in Canberra, MPs have to choose a party room.

It will work like this:

Current MPs, who are re-elected, will sit in the same party room they are in now.

If the Conservatives take a seat off Labor which has previously been held by the Coalition, the new LNP MP will sit in the party room where the former conservative MP sat.

The third category involves those MPs who win in new seats, and the Coalition says that has been negotiated amicably on an electorate-by-electorate basis, principally on where the boundaries fall. If the Conservatives take Flynn off Labor it will add to the National Party room in Canberra; and if Wright is won by the LNP, the victorious MP will sit with the Liberals.

It seems straight up and down. But let's take these two examples.

Firstly, an environmental issue which might ignite differences between the traditional National and Liberal view, in the way that the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme did. The most prominent National Senator, Barnaby Joyce, highlighted the deep divisions between his party and many in the Liberal Party.

Secondly, it was also Nationals Senator Barnaby Joyce who spoke a different language to his Liberal party frontbench colleagues on the economy.

His change of portfolios won't change it as an issue, once the election campaign swings into order.

Indeed Labor insiders say they will deliberately try and "drive a wedge'' between the two federal Coalition parties on those two fronts, and was now "scouting around for a big environmental issue'' to replace the CPRS ahead of the campaign.

Those on the Coalition campaign team dismiss the threat saying there were as many divisions within the Liberal party as there were between the two Coalition parties on the CPRS and Tony Abbott's leadership had put that issue to rest.

The LNP had also suffered no policy differences since its birth almost two years ago, and it would not be an issue in voters' minds, according to the Coalition.

That might or might not be true, but two MPs from the State Party quit this month to become independents, saying the LNP had lost its way, and behind the scenes differences continue to simmer.
I get the feeling Barnaby is angling to blow the LNPQ up.

The fact Dutton will be Liberal leader and is a Queenslander complicates things for Barnaby.

Either way, there is zero chance of the LNP moving back to the centre while Barnaby and Dutton duke it out.
 

Ned_Flanders

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I get the feeling Barnaby is angling to blow the LNPQ up.

The fact Dutton will be Liberal leader and is a Queenslander complicates things for Barnaby.

Either way, there is zero chance of the LNP moving back to the centre while Barnaby and Dutton duke it out.

you have to remember the history. the reason for the merger was because the queensland libs were in such a poor state, and post Sir Joh the Nats couldnt resonate in the cities

Those pressures have not gone from QLD, and its ultimately a state party decision, not one from the federal offices
 

QuietB

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you have to remember the history. the reason for the merger was because the queensland libs were in such a poor state, and post Sir Joh the Nats couldnt resonate in the cities

Those pressures have not gone from QLD, and its ultimately a state party decision, not one from the federal offices
But that is the play Barnaby is making. The Liberals are their weakest in their history. They have 26 seats + whatever is theirs in Queensland. The Nationals are the senior coalition partner in WA state politics.

Power is the only thing thee muppets care about and Barnaby is making his play.

They are going to eat each other alive.
 

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Please elect Dutton as leader. PLease.
As I said. If Dutton is the liberal/ national coalition leader in the 2025 election, he won't win. Dutton will have that similar stench and stains and hate and baggage like Scott Morrison had in this 2022 election.

Coalition at best can win the 2028 election at the earliest.

The coalition is bare on leadership, even if Scott Morrison won the 2022 election.

They need a clean out and get some new people in. Just like Labor did after getting thrashed in that 2004 election.
 

Ned_Flanders

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But that is the play Barnaby is making. The Liberals are their weakest in their history. They have 26 seats + whatever is theirs in Queensland. The Nationals are the senior coalition partner in WA state politics.

Power is the only thing thee muppets care about and Barnaby is making his play.

They are going to eat each other alive.

i'll repeat, Barnaby doesnt give two *s about the LNP winning the QLD state election, but the queensland branch do.

they dont kill their changes in QLD to make Barnaby (a dude from NSW) happy
 

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Jane Hume on the radio.
"Liberal values are very much Australia’s values, and I don’t think that Australia understands that anymore.”
Just a stunning lack self awareness.
 

Pessimistic

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its not a secret - its on wiki after all :)

While incumbent MPs retained their previous federal affiliations, the LNP has worked out an informal agreement with its federal counterparts regarding the affiliations of newly elected members. Members who regain seats from Labor will sit with the previous Coalition MP's party – i.e., if the LNP takes a seat off Labor that was previously held by a Liberal, the LNP member will sit with the Liberals. A division of seats was decided upon for new seats or seats that have never been won by the Coalition.[22] In practice, most LNP MPs from Brisbane and the Gold Coast sit with the Liberals, while those from country seats usually sit with the Nationals.

The party has considered forming a separate party room in the Federal Parliament (i.e., separate from the federal Nationals who are formed by NSW and Victorian members). As a separate party the LNP would be the second largest party of the Coalition and would theoretically have a claim to the Deputy Prime Minister's post in any Coalition government.[23]

Llew O'Brien sat with the Nationals until 10 February 2020. He has since opted to sit within the Coalition party room, but not with the Nationals or Liberals, following his call for a leadership spill against Michael McCormack the week before. O'Brien rejoined the federal Nationals parliamentary party in December 2020.




And one issue that is raising its head is the merged Liberal National Party in Queensland.

On polling day, those people north of the border will vote for a single candidate from the combined party. There will be no three-cornered contests, and candidates will campaign under a LNP masthead.

But once in Canberra, MPs have to choose a party room.

It will work like this:

Current MPs, who are re-elected, will sit in the same party room they are in now.

If the Conservatives take a seat off Labor which has previously been held by the Coalition, the new LNP MP will sit in the party room where the former conservative MP sat.

The third category involves those MPs who win in new seats, and the Coalition says that has been negotiated amicably on an electorate-by-electorate basis, principally on where the boundaries fall. If the Conservatives take Flynn off Labor it will add to the National Party room in Canberra; and if Wright is won by the LNP, the victorious MP will sit with the Liberals.

It seems straight up and down. But let's take these two examples.

Firstly, an environmental issue which might ignite differences between the traditional National and Liberal view, in the way that the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme did. The most prominent National Senator, Barnaby Joyce, highlighted the deep divisions between his party and many in the Liberal Party.

Secondly, it was also Nationals Senator Barnaby Joyce who spoke a different language to his Liberal party frontbench colleagues on the economy.

His change of portfolios won't change it as an issue, once the election campaign swings into order.

Indeed Labor insiders say they will deliberately try and "drive a wedge'' between the two federal Coalition parties on those two fronts, and was now "scouting around for a big environmental issue'' to replace the CPRS ahead of the campaign.

Those on the Coalition campaign team dismiss the threat saying there were as many divisions within the Liberal party as there were between the two Coalition parties on the CPRS and Tony Abbott's leadership had put that issue to rest.

The LNP had also suffered no policy differences since its birth almost two years ago, and it would not be an issue in voters' minds, according to the Coalition.

That might or might not be true, but two MPs from the State Party quit this month to become independents, saying the LNP had lost its way, and behind the scenes differences continue to simmer.

Any energy or climate legislation will be a wedge for these jokers. Don’t even need to design it thus.

Any claims of wedge (after Albo saying he won’t seek to wedge) should be taken with a pinch of salt
 

Ned_Flanders

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Any energy or climate legislation will be a wedge for these jokers. Don’t even need to design it thus.

Any claims of wedge (after Albo saying he won’t seek to wedge) should be taken with a pinch of salt

its queensland - they still to mass land clearing, i dont think their libs give two *s about carbon reduction targets
 

Mateyman

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For every Steggal there is a Patrick or a Phelps. A lot of these teal seats will return to the libs just because that's their natural party of preference.
Patrick hasn't been voted out? And Phelps only had 6 months to establish herself after a by-election - not really comparable to a full 3 year term.
 

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