The coalition will never win the federal government again.

Oct 2, 2007
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The most likely path for the LNP is for Dutton to become leader, continuing the party's slide into right-wing populism, its talking points generated by Sky News. That outcome will further the irreconcilable rift between its conservatives and what remains of its moderates and won't win back the blue-ribbon seats it has lost to the Teals and Greens.

That result would completely alienate women voters, who near unanimously hate Dutton with a passion.

Also what does it say to the electorate, where the leading issue for voters was Climate crisis and Climate change, and this is what ultimately led to 3-5 Green MPs, and several Teal MPs who campaigned directly on this issue, if the Coalition put this bloke in charge:



They'd wind up getting smashed next election as even more women, climate conscious voters, and inner city professionals jump onto independents, or even the Greens.

We're not America. Our Conservatives cant yield the Inner cities like the Republicans have done over there, because doing so yields the Lower house, and thus Government.

The only thing that they get from Dutton, embracing the culture wars and going down the full blown Trumpism path, is electoral wipeout.

They need to regain the confidence of inner city professional voters, who are abandoning them in droves.
 
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Can remember similar chatter when Rudd won in 07 - then we ended up with Tony Abbott.

It's really hard to know how people will respond to independents in future elections, which may make it harder for seats to return to a major party as opposed to just tossing out an unpopular government for the alternative. A strong personal impression may be influential, as we saw a few of the incumbents increase their margins, and there's examples like the North Queensland seat held by the Katter family since the 60s.
 
Last edited:
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The only thing that they get from Dutton, embracing the culture wars and going down the full blown Trumpism path, is electoral wipeout.

They need to regain the confidence of inner city professional voters, who are abandoning them in droves.
Abandoned, past tense: the inner city professional has now left them. I agree. Winning these voters back with Dutton will be impossible. The Party could, through gritted teeth, give the reigns to the moderates, but who exactly? The cupboard was already pretty bare before the Teal wave wiped out a generation of candidates. I cannot see the LNP offering the type of progressive 'woke' capitalism supported by today's inner-city professionals.
 

Not Important

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The liberal and national coalition will need to split up in order for the right side of politics to win power again.

As we move towards a greener future, any policies trying to hold back the shift will ensure they stay in Opposition.

No amount of Murdoch bullshit will work.

The LNP is dead …. The teals are here to stay ..and the Liberals will need to move left and contest safe national seats if they want to form government again.
…. And that won’t happen for atleast the next 2 elections.

Albo how long? Shitloads….
they won't split. look what happened in qld when the did. murdoch, costello, and stokes will get 'em back. there r enough suckers around to ensure it. :mad:
 
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there's examples like the North Queensland seat held by the Katter family since the 60s.

Katter is a homophobic nationalist gun nut with some out there (and harmful) views, but he does give a s**t about his electorate (and seems to genuinely care about many Indigenous issues) and does a lot of good work to go with his frequent batshit crazy racist uncle rants.

Id never vote for him, but I see why his electorate does.
 

ray1984

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The most likely path for the LNP is for Dutton to become leader, continuing the party's slide into right-wing populism, its talking points generated by Sky News. That outcome will further the irreconcilable rift between its conservatives and what remains of its moderates and won't win back the blue-ribbon seats it has lost to the Teals and Greens. Winning back those 'wets'—social liberals who like free-market capitalism—would involve a 180 on climate change and introducing party gender quotas as the bare minimum. Such changes and concessions are unlikely under Dutton and would alienate the Nationals and Sky anyway.

Basically, the Coalition has lost its liberal base and does not look inclined to get it back. This has massive repercussions because the LNP cannot find a path to government without that base. These lost votes don't go to labor: affluent inner-city wets would rather eat their own s**t (or vote Green) than vote ALP. But their desertion is a gift to labor who, as a result, can now form minority governments or modest majority governments with a low primary vote.

The moderates were first alienated under Howard, and the discord grew under Abbott and Morrison. So the divorce has been a long time coming, and it's probably too late to fix it now. The Coalition may well be in the wilderness for a long time.
No!
Under Turmoil and Scomo the current LNP and nations have been the most left leaning they have ever been! They have lost the conservatives base due to this!

Right won’t is what that one term bankrupt wonder Fraser Anning was
 

footscray1973

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From an ABC article this morning. If Andrews, Tehan and Taylor are the alternatives to Dutton, they'll be looking at 2, probably 3 terms in opposition at least, if they don't fragment first.


Screenshot_20220522-125715_Chrome.jpg
 
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Yeah interest rates are rising 1.5 percentage points in the next 12 months. There will be a bloodbath in debt. And most likely a recession.

its not labors fault but labor will be held responsible

any opposition may get in under such a landscape.
No they won't. It will likely end up in a massive redirection of votes to other parties. People won't be quick to welcome back a Lib party.

The Libs are in danger. Can't go left, can't go right.
 
The Liberals are dead in the ACT, haven't been in power locally since 2001 and are drifting further and further away as the Greens become a more viable second option.

Despite the result last night, I haven't seen anything similar happening nationally, but under Dutton and Joyce you would think that the coalition will be heading further to the right and alienating more and more Australians.
 

Blue1980

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The Liberals are dead in the ACT, haven't been in power locally since 2001 and are drifting further and further away as the Greens become a more viable second option.

Despite the result last night, I haven't seen anything similar happening nationally, but under Dutton and Joyce you would think that the coalition will be heading further to the right and alienating more and more Australians.

Victoria is a chance to get to a ALP v greens state.

Maybe even WA.
 

Tyberious Funk

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Wow... people are naive.

Firstly, on Peter Dutton becoming leader. People used to think that Tony Abbott was unelectable as Prime Minister. He was literally known as "the mad monk". Not only did he end up opposition leader, but he ended up Prime Minister. You can argue about how terrible a Prime Minister he was, but he still got there. And the Liberals managed to carve out three terms on the back of Abbott's win. Make no mistake about it... Dutton can win an election and that should be a very, very scary prospect.

Secondly, people underestimate the impact of the relentless attacks from the right-wing media. They started criticising Albanese within minutes of it becoming apparent that he had won. By next week, we will probably hear nothing other than screaming about the debt, inflation, interest rates and the cost of living. It will all be heaped onto Labor. The Liberals are already claiming that they are leaving office with the economy in tip-top shape. Remember that Rudd came to office in a landslide, and by mid-way through his first term he had been ousted as leader. And it's easy to blame the 'faceless' men of the Labor party, but it was his declining popularity due to constant criticism from the media that gave them the ammunition.

Lastly... Scott Morrison was a liar, a bully and a psychopath -- according to his own party. And yet, Labor is only just managing to squeak out a victory. After 9 turbulent years of Liberal government, disasterous handling of the bushfires, pandemic, floods... and Labor can still barely win. They don't need a huge swing to claw back government. Most parties come to power with a larger margin than Labor have ended up with. They typically lose some of that margin in their next election, but typically retain enough to hold power. Labor just don't have that sort of margin this time.

I think Albanese is a solid operator, but he is facing a hurculean task because of the narrow margin he has, and the mountain of work needed to bring things back on track.

To be honest, I'll be stunned if Labor win a second term.
 

pugsville

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Over the last decade or So maybe 2 The Liberal party has drifted every more right, in part because Labour has drifted centre and the Need to differentiate between the two. But that i s very minor.

The biggest reason is teh Abbot and Morrison among others saw culture wars, identity politics and Action on Climate change as ways to win elections. That they could wedge Labour with some of their key supporters, business and many socially conservative Australians. And it worked fairly well. But they also sidelined traditional small 'l' liberals and moderates. They also handed a megaphone to some the biggest culture warriors who took a election winning starategy as Rhetoric to live by.

There has been decline of Liberal party mebers as with mots poltical parties. Those who stay now locals do no have have much say in candidates or in th election palform, tned to bve rsutsed on types with a heavy Agenda. It's a lot more pronounced for the Liberal party. THis meant the liberal party membership has drifted stradily further right than most of the electorate.

Now within the Parliamentary Liberal party many moderate Liberals have lost their seats. The moderates were pretty powerless and ignored within the Liberal Party before this election, now they are much reduced and lack numbers even more, and hard nose right winger in Dutton looks likely to be the next leader. You;d expect a doubling down of the Rhetoric, and Morrison on steroids under Dutton.

These trends could really threaten the Liberals electabilty going forward. However the teals, independents right now will be politicians rather than outsiders next election and they can so easily trade their credibility like the Democrats did. They will have to be careful. They need to get something done but not be seen as Labour puppets. Agree to eaisly and they can be painted as stooges without principaj, dig in andt hey can idealists who get nothing done.

A Downturn could see politics move to more ecnomics focus and incumbants blamed regardless of the actual; cause. This can play out in all osrts of way,

But Dutton doubling down on the culture wars, playing to cheers from the internet.pay tv cheerleaders echo chamber could increasingly aleinate middle Austrlia,


'
 

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The most likely path for the LNP is for Dutton to become leader, continuing the party's slide into right-wing populism, its talking points generated by Sky News. That outcome will further the irreconcilable rift between its conservatives and what remains of its moderates and won't win back the blue-ribbon seats it has lost to the Teals and Greens. Winning back those 'wets'—social liberals who like free-market capitalism—would involve a 180 on climate change and introducing party gender quotas as the bare minimum. Such changes and concessions are unlikely under Dutton and would alienate the Nationals and Sky anyway.

Basically, the Coalition has lost its liberal base and does not look inclined to get it back. This has massive repercussions because the LNP cannot find a path to government without that base. These lost votes don't go to labor: affluent inner-city wets would rather eat their own s**t (or vote Green) than vote ALP. But their desertion is a gift to labor who, as a result, can now form minority governments or modest majority governments with a low primary vote.

The moderates were first alienated under Howard, and the discord grew under Abbott and Morrison. So the divorce has been a long time coming, and it's probably too late to fix it now. The Coalition may well be in the wilderness for a long time.

It’s worse than volition would have expected. In Kooyong Monique rayan might not even need preferences. Slightly ahead of fryzo right now
That result would completely alienate women voters, who near unanimously hate Dutton with a passion.

Also what does it say to the electorate, where the leading issue for voters was Climate crisis and Climate change, and this is what ultimately led to 3-5 Green MPs, and several Teal MPs who campaigned directly on this issue, if the Coalition put this bloke in charge:



They'd wind up getting smashed next election as even more women, climate conscious voters, and inner city professionals jump onto independents, or even the Greens.

We're not America. Our Conservatives cant yield the Inner cities like the Republicans have done over there, because doing so yields the Lower house, and thus Government.

The only thing that they get from Dutton, embracing the culture wars and going down the full blown Trumpism path, is electoral wipeout.

They need to regain the confidence of inner city professional voters, who are abandoning them in droves.


Morison dissapointed……that they got caught
 

Cyg1992

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Wow... people are naive.

Firstly, on Peter Dutton becoming leader. People used to think that Tony Abbott was unelectable as Prime Minister. He was literally known as "the mad monk". Not only did he end up opposition leader, but he ended up Prime Minister. You can argue about how terrible a Prime Minister he was, but he still got there. And the Liberals managed to carve out three terms on the back of Abbott's win. Make no mistake about it... Dutton can win an election and that should be a very, very scary prospect.

Secondly, people underestimate the impact of the relentless attacks from the right-wing media. They started criticising Albanese within minutes of it becoming apparent that he had won. By next week, we will probably hear nothing other than screaming about the debt, inflation, interest rates and the cost of living. It will all be heaped onto Labor. The Liberals are already claiming that they are leaving office with the economy in tip-top shape. Remember that Rudd came to office in a landslide, and by mid-way through his first term he had been ousted as leader. And it's easy to blame the 'faceless' men of the Labor party, but it was his declining popularity due to constant criticism from the media that gave them the ammunition.

Lastly... Scott Morrison was a liar, a bully and a psychopath -- according to his own party. And yet, Labor is only just managing to squeak out a victory. After 9 turbulent years of Liberal government, disasterous handling of the bushfires, pandemic, floods... and Labor can still barely win. They don't need a huge swing to claw back government. Most parties come to power with a larger margin than Labor have ended up with. They typically lose some of that margin in their next election, but typically retain enough to hold power. Labor just don't have that sort of margin this time.

I think Albanese is a solid operator, but he is facing a hurculean task because of the narrow margin he has, and the mountain of work needed to bring things back on track.

To be honest, I'll be stunned if Labor win a second term.
I worry about the same things.
 
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Any sign of turmoil in the alp ranks (ala rudd tenure or a more 'I want a turn as a minister now we're in government') and a chance to claw back government will see the libs buddy up again to moderates. We know that principles come second to maintaining power.
 
Any sign of turmoil in the alp ranks (ala rudd tenure or a more 'I want a turn as a minister now we're in government') and a chance to claw back government will see the libs buddy up again to moderates. We know that principles come second to maintaining power.

The libs should be buddying up with the teals NOW. They are old school liberals ffs
 

DaRick

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Never say never, especially in the face of an economic calamity, but they'll have to reform and pick a leader who can appeal to blue-ribbon seats. Being more of what they were will likely not cut it, and this election has exposed the limitations of Murdoch's barracking.
 

Blue1980

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Wow... people are naive.

Firstly, on Peter Dutton becoming leader. People used to think that Tony Abbott was unelectable as Prime Minister. He was literally known as "the mad monk". Not only did he end up opposition leader, but he ended up Prime Minister. You can argue about how terrible a Prime Minister he was, but he still got there. And the Liberals managed to carve out three terms on the back of Abbott's win. Make no mistake about it... Dutton can win an election and that should be a very, very scary prospect.

Secondly, people underestimate the impact of the relentless attacks from the right-wing media. They started criticising Albanese within minutes of it becoming apparent that he had won. By next week, we will probably hear nothing other than screaming about the debt, inflation, interest rates and the cost of living. It will all be heaped onto Labor. The Liberals are already claiming that they are leaving office with the economy in tip-top shape. Remember that Rudd came to office in a landslide, and by mid-way through his first term he had been ousted as leader. And it's easy to blame the 'faceless' men of the Labor party, but it was his declining popularity due to constant criticism from the media that gave them the ammunition.

Lastly... Scott Morrison was a liar, a bully and a psychopath -- according to his own party. And yet, Labor is only just managing to squeak out a victory. After 9 turbulent years of Liberal government, disasterous handling of the bushfires, pandemic, floods... and Labor can still barely win. They don't need a huge swing to claw back government. Most parties come to power with a larger margin than Labor have ended up with. They typically lose some of that margin in their next election, but typically retain enough to hold power. Labor just don't have that sort of margin this time.

I think Albanese is a solid operator, but he is facing a hurculean task because of the narrow margin he has, and the mountain of work needed to bring things back on track.

To be honest, I'll be stunned if Labor win a second term.

I agree with some of what you said but there are key differences this time to 07:

  • much higher vote for greens
  • rise of the teals
  • they are being wiped in the metro areas, everywhere

I think they will target the outer suburban areas more so, but they are starting from a long way back in most of those (especially in Melbourne).

But I wouldn’t be writing them off, they will have relentless media attacks basically beginning now.
 
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