The cock up that is the east coast energy market

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Kwality

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This mess deserves its own thread.
Remember its an east coast snafu, WA looked after itself more than 15 years ago.

The failure of the State Governments of SA, Vic, NSW & Q have failed their residents & the political nuffies are trying to blame it on the Feds

Here is an update from a reputable renewable energy industry media outlet:


Points made include:
The electricity price chaos afflicting Australia’s energy markets continued over the weekend and into the new week, as new data showed how multiple outages has pushed coal generation to a record low in the country’s main grid.

Energy authorities and analysts say the blame for Australia’s record high electricity prices reflect a mix of international events, such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the resulting high price of coal and gas in the Australian market, and added local problems such as multiple coal outages and coal supply shortfalls.

Coal output in the National Electricity Market has hit a record low – both in rolling seven day average and 24 hour average – highlighting the supply, maintenance and production problems at the country’s ageing coal fleet.

According to Geoff Eldridge from NEMLog, the average coal share in the NEM fell to 52 per cent over a 24 hour period, and to 55 per cent over a rolling seven day average. Both figures are record lows.

Around the same time, wind energy is also posting new records – this time for maximum rather than minimum output – although the boost has offered only temporary reprieves from the high prices because of the domineering influence of expensive coal and gas which generally control the price settings.

According to the NEMLog data, wind achieved a record share of 25.2 per cent of the NEM output for the 24 hours to 1830 AEST on Sunday, while both South Australia and Victoria posted state records as a result of the big front that swept through on the weekend.

South Australia, which went from feat to famine last week (its wind output fell to less than one megawatt last Tuesday evening) posted a new record peak of 1,934MW at 2105 AESTbon Saturday, and the 24 hour output through to 1630 AEST on Sunday was a record average of 96.1 per cent.

Prices in the state remained volatile, however, after the Australian Energy Market Operator declared a “Protected Event” for the potential “loss of multiple transmission” lines due to destructive winds.

Its intervention changed the generation mix and was designed to avoid any chance of a repeat of the 2016 statewide blackout.

However, as WattClarity documented, there were numerous different outages across a range of generators – both gas and wind – which added complexity to the situation.

In Victoria, a new maximum Instantaneous output of wind energy was also recorded at 0030 AEST on Sunday, when the output reached 2,970.9MW, more than 242MW above its previous record set on May 156 this year.

That blast of wind – averaging more than 2,500MW for more than 12 hours – was enough to push prices into negative territory in that state before the gas generators pushed it back up above $400/MWh to cover their newly inflated cost of generation.

Average wholesale prices in NSW so far in June have been an eye-watering $470/MWh, up nearly 50 per cent from the already sky-high level of $320/MWh averaged over May.
In Queensland, they have jumped to $443/MWh, up from $347MWh in May, and even in South Australia they have jumped to $320/MWh.

Theres more, see this link:Market chaos as outages push coal output to record low, despite new wind peaks

IT IS a BLOODY MESS !!!
Good luck to the Feds ..... Mr Bowen needs to knock their heads off & take control of this before the lights go out. Yeh, the same States cant organise a fix for the Murray Darling Basin, go figure.
 

kaka

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Blaming the states is kinda absurd. Lack of a coherent federal policy has resulted in states trying to go it alone or make their own decisions.

Need a coherent energy policy driven from the Commonwealth as need an integrated energy grid.

Culture wars over energy sources have held back progress, but the current situation would still have occurred in some form. Russia invading Ukraine is such an unknown wildcard which has driven fuel shortages.
 

dockerfemme

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Blaming the states is kinda absurd. Lack of a coherent federal policy has resulted in states trying to go it alone or make their own decisions.

Need a coherent energy policy driven from the Commonwealth as need an integrated energy grid.

Culture wars over energy sources have held back progress, but the current situation would still have occurred in some form. Russia invading Ukraine is such an unknown wildcard which has driven fuel shortages.
What do you think a coherent federal energy policy would cover?
 

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QuietB

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What do you think a coherent federal energy policy would cover?
It would help the three eastern seaboard states coordinate and cooperate properly with each other for a start.

We have undoubtedly moved to a national grid for pretty much all of eastern Australia and we do not have a national energy policy.
 

dockerfemme

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It would help the three eastern seaboard states coordinate and cooperate properly with each other for a start.

We have undoubtedly moved to a national grid for pretty much all of eastern Australia and we do not have a national energy policy.
I totally agree that the energy supply on the eastern seaboard doesn’t seem to be well planned and coordinated. The bureaucracy that surrounds the NEM (AEMO, AEMC, AER, ESB), the privatisation of electricity supply to the grid, and the management by committee of all of this seems like a recipe for disaster. For all that, electricity and gas supply is the responsibility of the states and to lay the blame with the feds seems wrong to me. If the states have created something they can’t manage then that is their lookout.

Trying to have major change to something that is very complex in a technical and operational sense, and also complex in a bureaucratic sense must be very difficult.

I still don’t understand what a federal energy policy would cover.
 

Carn The Berries

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The contradictions in this debate at the moment are staggering. WA is being (rightfully) held as a beacon of success due to the DomGas arrangements that were built into the industry framework (much to the dislike and financial disadvantage of gas companies) yet on the east cost apparently it's the Commonwealth's problem to solve??

Where are the fingers being pointed at state governments (of both persuasions) on the eastern seaboard for not having the foresight to guarantee domestic gas supply?

As was noted in the press today, trying to retrospectively implement a gas reserve program in Qld/NSW/Vic will be next to impossible, companies have based their investment decisions upon the prevailing conditions, which is that they can sell their gas wherever they want.

Wouldn't matter whether it was the ALP or LNP in power federally, a domestic gas reserve is a pipe dream at present.
 

Elroo

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The contradictions in this debate at the moment are staggering. WA is being (rightfully) held as a beacon of success due to the DomGas arrangements that were built into the industry framework (much to the dislike and financial disadvantage of gas companies) yet on the east cost apparently it's the Commonwealth's problem to solve??

Where are the fingers being pointed at state governments (of both persuasions) on the eastern seaboard for not having the foresight to guarantee domestic gas supply?

As was noted in the press today, trying to retrospectively implement a gas reserve program in Qld/NSW/Vic will be next to impossible, companies have based their investment decisions upon the prevailing conditions, which is that they can sell their gas wherever they want.


Wouldn't matter whether it was the ALP or LNP in power federally, a domestic gas reserve is a pipe dream at present.
You, and previously Kwality raised this years ago and I corrected him then, who does the state of NSW & Vic sell their gas to if it's not the domestic market? Out of the 3 States raised, only QLD has an industry that exports significant amounts of gas through Gladstone LNG.
 

Carn The Berries

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You, and previously Kwality raised this years ago and I corrected him then, who does the state of NSW & Vic sell their gas to if it's not the domestic market? Out of the 3 States raised, only QLD has an industry that exports significant amounts of gas through Gladstone LNG.
Happy to be corrected - It makes the point even more moot regarding a gas reserve.
 

Pessimistic

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Blaming the states is kinda absurd. Lack of a coherent federal policy has resulted in states trying to go it alone or make their own decisions.

Need a coherent energy policy driven from the Commonwealth as need an integrated energy grid.

Culture wars over energy sources have held back progress, but the current situation would still have occurred in some form. Russia invading Ukraine is such an unknown wildcard which has driven fuel shortages.

A former liberal pm said so, and Rudd said something similar. Failed by their own targets

Now even harder to fix in a crisis which we should have been ready for
 

Elroo

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Happy to be corrected - It makes the point even more moot regarding a gas reserve.
Kwality has previously, and on numerous occasion pointed the finger at SA/VIC/NSW & QLD and blamed them for not having a domestics gas reservation policy in-place like WA. And, despite Kwality being corrected on this in regards to SA/VIC & NSW not having any sort of significant if any exports of gas, continues to blame a lack of "domestics gas reservation policy" for the current gas problems.
 

HairyO

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Carn The Berries

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Kwality has previously, and on numerous occasion pointed the finger at SA/VIC/NSW & QLD and blamed them for not having a domestics gas reservation policy in-place like WA. And, despite Kwality being corrected on this in regards to SA/VIC & NSW not having any sort of significant if any exports of gas, continues to blame a lack of "domestics gas reservation policy" for the current gas problems.
That's not entirely wrong. Given the eastern seaboard is interconnected if there was a domestic reservation policy in place to quarantine some of the Qld export volumes that would go some way to mitigating the current issue.
 

Carn The Berries

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Not much hope when the new Minister pulls the sexism card on her 3rd day on the job...


Also wants coal plants brought back online. The Greens wont be much pleased.
The sexism reference is drawing a long bow but saying that plants who were experiencing "unplanned outages" need to get themselves back on-line ASAP is hardly a revelation. She's not talking about re-starting plants that have been closed down, merely returning current plants to their operating capacity.

It would be political suicide to suggest anything else. If you were to say "nah just let those plants run at way under capacity when there is no alternative and let the market set the price on reduced supply" how do you think that would be received by the electorate?

Even the most staunch Green supporter would have a hard time selling that!
 

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HairyO

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The sexism reference is drawing a long bow but saying that plants who were experiencing "unplanned outages" need to get themselves back on-line ASAP is hardly a revelation. She's not talking about re-starting plants that have been closed down, merely returning current plants to their operating capacity.

It would be political suicide to suggest anything else. If you were to say "nah just let those plants run at way under capacity when there is no alternative and let the market set the price on reduced supply" how do you think that would be received by the electorate?

Even the most staunch Green supporter would have a hard time selling that!

Correct. But I suspect there are still plenty of Greens who would be thinking that since those coal plants are currently off they should just remain off.

Germany shut down a bunch of nuclear reactors without any thought to the constraints that introduced.
 

Elroo

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That's not entirely wrong. Given the eastern seaboard is interconnected if there was a domestic reservation policy in place to quarantine some of the Qld export volumes that would go some way to mitigating the current issue.
Is it?

Gas map - high res.jpg



QLD LNG for export is mainly sourced from Coal Seam Gas (CSG) in the Surat & Bowen Basins.
 
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Carn The Berries

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Given that those purple pipes are called "transmission pipelines" I would say... yes.

When surplus supply is available Gippsland Basin gas is sent to Qld for liquification and export. So a reserve scheme for the Qld production (though entirely impractical now given the commercial constraints) would free up supply that could be disbursed across NSW/Vic/SA.
 

Elroo

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Given that those purple pipes are called "transmission pipelines" I would say... yes.

When surplus supply is available Gippsland Basin gas is sent to Qld for liquification and export. So a reserve scheme for the Qld production (though entirely impractical now given the commercial constraints) would free up supply that could be disbursed across NSW/Vic/SA.
Given that those purple pipes are called "transmission pipelines" I would say... yes.

You do understand that the "purple pipe" as you call them, from MOOMBA is gas supply to NSW, not from NSW?

When surplus supply is available Gippsland Basin gas is sent to Qld for liquification and export.
When is this surplus gas supply sent from Gippsland to QLD for export?

You're falling for the Kwality school of posting?
 

Carn The Berries

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You do understand that the "purple pipe" as you call them, from MOOMBA is gas supply to NSW, not from NSW?


When is this surplus gas supply sent from Gippsland to QLD for export?

You're falling for the Kwality school of posting?
"The Longford Gas Plant, servicing the Gippsland Basin, achieved record high production in 2017, some of which was shipped to Queensland for LNG exports"

https://www.aer.gov.au/system/files...pter 4 - Gas markets in eastern Australia.pdf

Page 187. Feel free to continue your argument with the Australian Energy Regulator.
 

Kwality

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Kwality has previously, and on numerous occasion pointed the finger at SA/VIC/NSW & QLD and blamed them for not having a domestics gas reservation policy in-place like WA. And, despite Kwality being corrected on this in regards to SA/VIC & NSW not having any sort of significant if any exports of gas, continues to blame a lack of "domestics gas reservation policy" for the current gas problems.

Indeed why is there a discussion over east coast electricity?
Why is gas in that mix?
Why is Ms King looking to coal*?

An almighty cock up down the east coast !

* Quickest fix to gas crisis is to bring coal plants back online, Resources Minister says

Quite happy to own your critical analysis Elroo.
 

Elroo

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Elroo

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Indeed why is there a discussion over east coast electricity?
Why is gas in that mix?
Why is Ms King looking to coal*?

An almighty cock up down the east coast !

* Quickest fix to gas crisis is to bring coal plants back online, Resources Minister says

Quite happy to own your critical analysis Elroo.
Good too see you're appeared, what is about the 3rd or 4th time you've attempted to run the line that a lack of a domestic gas reservation policy in SA/NSW& Vic is to blame for the high gas prices in those states?
 

Taylor

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I thought this was the plan? Shut down the cheap options for slightly cleaner ones that are used by regular people, demand will drive up prices getting people to re-think if they want to use energy as much.

This was the goal. It's working. Now either they stick to the plan and wear some political suffering or they revert to the cheaper, higher quality of life but less environmentally friendly option and wear a different political cost.
 

Elroo

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I thought this was the plan? Shut down the cheap options for slightly cleaner ones that are used by regular people, demand will drive up prices getting people to re-think if they want to use energy as much.

This was the goal. It's working. Now either they stick to the plan and wear some political suffering or they revert to the cheaper, higher quality of life but less environmentally friendly option and wear a different political cost.
What plan and by who?
 

Taylor

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What plan and by who?

The reason the likes of AGL pivoted away from cheaper power, decommission working cheap energy production facilities and push the market into dependency on less abundant and less expensive - but greener - alternatives.\

It's why keystone was binned, it works with the plan to move away from fossil fuels - the first step of which is to make it unattractive to be dependent on them - it makes more expensive options more cost effective.

The regular person just suffers a bit in the meantime.
 

Kwality

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Good too see you're appeared, what is about the 3rd or 4th time you've attempted to run the line that a lack of a domestic gas reservation policy in SA/NSW& Vic is to blame for the high gas prices in those states?

Origin Energy* has predicted smaller electricity retailers face collapse due to soaring wholesale energy prices and has called on governments to prioritise coal supply for power stations to ease a growing energy crisis.

Yes, I've raised the prospect of power shortfalls before, & you are welcome to your criticism. Its welcome.

The good thing about having the discussion AGAIN is hopefully it can be had in a less partisan political atmosphere that such BF issues are held.

*https://www.theaustralian.com.au/bu...s/news-story/4c159c79c89ae1dca9ff114fb1706572
 

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