The cock up that is the east coast energy market

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SaintsSeptember

TheBrownDog
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Everything would work better if it was integrated.

For example, Aluminium smelters need lots of uninterrupted electricity , they can't allow the aluminium to solidify.
The drawback for molten salt batteries is that they require several hundred degrees to keep the salt molten to operate.

Solar Power Station, Molten Salt Batteries, Aluminium Smelter....may i introduce you to each other.
 

kranky al

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the difference in our discussion is you are comparing Germany to Australia

where I am comparing Germany to leading such as NZ, Ontario, france, Tassie, Yukon, Sweden, Norway etc. Then asking should we follow dirty Germany or follow the nations that have achieved results 10 to 30 times better than Germany

10-30 times eh?

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Not seeing 10-30 times better there sport.
 

SaintsSeptember

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Apart from anything else , Germany have some massive companies such as Siemens.
Investing in a wind etc has a flow on effect back through german companies.

We don't have that.
 

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Power Raid

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oh dear me, we are in a thread about energy markets. with the posts, of mine, you are replying to are referring to power generation not co2 per head.

can you try and remain focused?



the leading nations are 10 to 30 times better than Dirty Germany's power generation

1659179801268.png




SHould we invest in our power generation to replicate Germany's dirty failed model? or replicate successful models?
 
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Power Raid

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Everything would work better if it was integrated.

For example, Aluminium smelters need lots of uninterrupted electricity , they can't allow the aluminium to solidify.
The drawback for molten salt batteries is that they require several hundred degrees to keep the salt molten to operate.

Solar Power Station, Molten Salt Batteries, Aluminium Smelter....may i introduce you to each other.

to be accurate, alumina refining is one of heat

so taking the waste product (heat) from power stations is their preferred model, that's why many refineries are right next door to power station. In fact 82% of Australia's energy consumption is not electricity but heat...............something that renewables don't produce.

Molten salt is high corrosive and too low a temperature for alumina (other than assisting). Further, molten salt requires gas to keep the temperature when renewables aren't working. Salt is probably in the sweet spot to produce hydrogen though.
 

SaintsSeptember

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to be accurate, alumina refining is one of heat

so taking the waste product (heat) from power stations is their preferred model, that's why many refineries are right next door to power station. In fact 82% of Australia's energy consumption is not electricity but heat...............something that renewables don't produce.

Molten salt is high corrosive and too low a temperature for alumina (other than assisting). Further, molten salt requires gas to keep the temperature when renewables aren't working. Salt is probably in the sweet spot to produce hydrogen though.

Exactly.,.....But.

Aluminium refineries need more heat than molten salt needs.

While they are using electricity to keep the aluminium molten ( and they usually use electricity ), they could keep the salt molten with the same heat.
 

kranky al

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oh dear me, we are in a thread about energy markets. with the posts, of mine, you are replying to are referring to power generation not co2 per head.

can you try and remain focused?



the leading nations are 10 to 30 times better than Dirty Germany's power generation

View attachment 1460863



SHould we invest in our power generation to replicate Germany's dirty failed model? or replicate successful models?
The

Amount

Of

Total

Co2

Germany

Expell

Yearly

Has

Gone

Down

Since

The

70’s

Down

Is

The

Opposite

Of

Up


Literally noone in the universe bar you give a rolled red rats turd about your arbitrary statistic.

If every single country in the world had replicated what the germans have done since the 70’s the world would be emitting 75% of its emissions since then - instead its gone up by 90%.

We wouldnt have a crisis now - wed be nearly there.
 

SaintsSeptember

TheBrownDog
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The

Amount

Of

Total

Co2

Germany

Expell

Yearly

Has

Gone

Down

Since

The

70’s

Down

Is

The

Opposite

Of

Up


Literally noone in the universe bar you give a rolled red rats turd about your arbitrary statistic.

If every single country in the world had replicated what the germans have done since the 70’s the world would be emitting 75% of its emissions since then - instead its gone up by 90%.

We wouldnt have a crisis now - wed be nearly there.

They used around 30% renewables in 2021.

If you replace your coal with gas you can decrease emissions by 50%
If you replace coal with Nuclear ( Germany currently 13% ) its close to 100%.

You want us to replicate that?

Shall we ignore the part about rolling out nuclear power , then decommissioning it without using it?
Shall we ignore the part about decommissioning coal then re-commissioning it.?
 

Kwality

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Its a good day for Victoria.

At the moment, ( low demand day ) about 2GW wind, 2GW Solar and 3GW Coal.
Prices at the moment are negative? They were $300/mwh before the sun came up.

Tasmania are importing around 30% of their electricity from Victoria. ( 407 Mw ).

Just reading about Basslink in wikipedia. Doesn't really make me think investing in much longer cables to Singapore would be a great idea. They had a fault in the cable offshore in 2015. Took a while to fix it.
---------------------------------------------------------

On 12 November 2021, the companies that owned and operated the Basslink undersea power cable between Tasmania and Victoria were placed into voluntary administration. The company owed $A40 million to the Tasmanian state government and Hydro—Tasmania for the 2015 outage.

On 10 February 2022, the Tasmanian Government through Hydro Tasmania terminated the Basslink Services Agreement (BSA) contract.[14] The interconnector cable would remain in service while negotiations continue with the administrators of Basslink to alter contract terms during the period of receivership, with Hydro Tasmania offering a one month extension of key BSA terms as an interim solution whilst alternative arrangements are discussed.[15] However, this proposed interim arrangement was rejected by Basslink on 16 February 2022

Fyi, its a tad chillier today down here in the Latrobe Valley.

Basslink is currently being offered for sale by the Administrator:
'The undersea cable that provides two-way access of 500MW of power between Tasmania and the mainland collapsed into the hands of receivers in November.

This was at a time the Tasmanian government and Hydro Tasmania had claimed damages worth $105.3m from an outage of the power and internet connection with the mainland in 2015. The interconnector comprises physical connection between Tasmania and Victoria for not just power, but internet services.

In addition to smoothing Tasmania’s own power grid, it plays a role in stabilising the National Energy Market when power demand fluctuates in the summer months.'

'The sale process is being run by the receiver FTI Consulting, and it has been a busy few weeks for the insolvency firm, which is also working as voluntary administrator for printing company Ovato, debt collector Collection House and mining company Wiluna Mining Corporation.'

Basslink is a significant component of the cocked up grid.
 

SaintsSeptember

TheBrownDog
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Fyi, its a tad chillier today down here in the Latrobe Valley.

Basslink is currently being offered for sale by the Administrator:
'The undersea cable that provides two-way access of 500MW of power between Tasmania and the mainland collapsed into the hands of receivers in November.

This was at a time the Tasmanian government and Hydro Tasmania had claimed damages worth $105.3m from an outage of the power and internet connection with the mainland in 2015. The interconnector comprises physical connection between Tasmania and Victoria for not just power, but internet services.

In addition to smoothing Tasmania’s own power grid, it plays a role in stabilising the National Energy Market when power demand fluctuates in the summer months.'

'The sale process is being run by the receiver FTI Consulting, and it has been a busy few weeks for the insolvency firm, which is also working as voluntary administrator for printing company Ovato, debt collector Collection House and mining company Wiluna Mining Corporation.'

Basslink is a significant component of the cocked up grid.

Yep i think it will be a while before they start farming pineapples in thorpdale.

Q:
Was the previous owner doing something drastically wrong or is an unviable business model?
If the latter , then why would anyone want to buy it.

Perhaps the old SECV can buy it, give themselves something else to do apart from selling electricity at a loss to aluminium plants.

If it is an integral part of national infrastructure does it not make sense for the government to own it.
If it is an integral part of the national infrastructure , did it really help anyone apart from lawyers for the Tasmanian government to sue?
Jesus they were prepared to throw more than that at a football team.
 

Kwality

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Yep i think it will be a while before they start farming pineapples in thorpdale.

Q:
Was the previous owner doing something drastically wrong or is an unviable business model?
If the latter , then why would anyone want to buy it.

Perhaps the old SECV can buy it, give themselves something else to do apart from selling electricity at a loss to aluminium plants.

If it is an integral part of national infrastructure does it not make sense for the government to own it.
If it is an integral part of the national infrastructure , did it really help anyone apart from lawyers for the Tasmanian government to sue?
Jesus they were prepared to throw more than that at a football team.

Seems there is nothing wrong at Basslink as long as its operating. Or so it appears.

'Basslink, which is owned by the Singapore based Keppel Infrastructure Trust, ran into financial troubles triggered by a prolonged outage of the interconnector caused by a failure of its undersea cable in 2015.'

'As a consequence of the outage, Basslink owes utility Hydro Tasmania around $40 million in damages, which led to Basslink’s owners opting to put it into administration while its future is resolved.'

In an interesting manoeuvre, a potential bidder APA Group, has bought the debt of Hydro Tas.
I have a high opinion of the APA management team was more interested in their potential involvement than the background of how this particular bit of the cock up came about.

PS: damn fine spuds out of Thorpdale. A top drop at the pub, but if you are motoring down Trafalgar way, there is always the Spud Shed: https://www.happycow.net/reviews/the-spud-shed-trafalgar-85806
 

Power Raid

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The

Amount

Of

Total

Co2

Germany

Expell

Yearly

Has

Gone

Down

Since

The

70’s

Down

Is

The

Opposite

Of

Up


Literally noone in the universe bar you give a rolled red rats turd about your arbitrary statistic.

If every single country in the world had replicated what the germans have done since the 70’s the world would be emitting 75% of its emissions since then - instead its gone up by 90%.

We wouldnt have a crisis now - wed be nearly there.

and we are discussing the energy market and thus the relevant fact are what the CO2 per kwh is, when assessing what investment Australia should make in our energy grid


Should we copy Dirty Germany and deliver an outcome 10-30 times worse than if we invest to replicate successful nations when it comes to clean energy? Yes or No



and yes, I am happy to discuss the other areas of investment which German has done well. but when it comes to clean reliable energy, Germany has failed.



and yes 30 times.............wow DIRTY GERMANY'S $1.5 trillion, 50 year, blood gas strategy doesn't look so good compared to world leaders

1659179801268-png.1460863


1659246595159.png




and compared to Ontario


The greenhouse gas intensity of Ontario’s electricity grid, measured as the GHGs emitted in the generation of the province’s electric power, was 30 grams of CO2e per kilowatt-hour (g of CO2e/kWh) electricity generated in 2019. This is an 87% reduction from the province’s 2005 level of 230 g of CO2e/kWh. The national average in 2019 was 120 g of CO2e/kWh (Figure 8).
 
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SaintsSeptember

TheBrownDog
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Seems there is nothing wrong at Basslink as long as its operating. Or so it appears.

'Basslink, which is owned by the Singapore based Keppel Infrastructure Trust, ran into financial troubles triggered by a prolonged outage of the interconnector caused by a failure of its undersea cable in 2015.'

'As a consequence of the outage, Basslink owes utility Hydro Tasmania around $40 million in damages, which led to Basslink’s owners opting to put it into administration while its future is resolved.'

In an interesting manoeuvre, a potential bidder APA Group, has bought the debt of Hydro Tas.
I have a high opinion of the APA management team was more interested in their potential involvement than the background of how this particular bit of the cock up came about.

PS: damn fine spuds out of Thorpdale. A top drop at the pub, but if you are motoring down Trafalgar way, there is always the Spud Shed: https://www.happycow.net/reviews/the-spud-shed-trafalgar-85806

An offshore failure would seem like something that is not really the fault of the operator.
I wonder what other plans APA have.

( Can't get a Coffee in Bar Twenty 4 though, and if the servo is closed . 10pm? it seems you can't get one anywhere in town ).
 

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Kwality

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An offshore failure would seem like something that is not really the fault of the operator.
I wonder what other plans APA have.

( Can't get a Coffee in Bar Twenty 4 though, and if the servo is closed . 10pm? it seems you can't get one anywhere in town ).

“The successful acquisition of 100 per cent of the bad debt in Basslink provides APA with the opportunity now to work with the receivers and managers to put that link on a sustainable footing going forward,” APA CEO Rob Wheals told an investor briefing on Wednesday.
If we are successful in acquiring Basslink, we will work with Hydro Tasmania, the customer, the state of Tasmania, the Australian energy regulator and other key stakeholders to convert that link to be a regulated asset.”

APA Group has sought to position itself as an owner of assets that it sees as having significant growth potential throughout the transition away from coal as Australia’s primary source of electricity generation.

“With coal generated electricity retiring over the coming decades, we remain highly confident in the critical role for gas as a source of timely, cost effective and secure energy.” Wheals said.

“It is an essential companion for the ongoing growth in renewable energy. Gas is also the critical energy source in high heat and hard to abate sectors, supporting Australia’s industrial businesses.”

 

kranky al

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and we are discussing the energy market and thus the relevant fact are what the CO2 per kwh is, when assessing what investment Australia should make in our energy grid


Should we copy Dirty Germany and deliver an outcome 10-30 times worse than if we invest to replicate successful nations when it comes to clean energy? Yes or No



and yes, I am happy to discuss the other areas of investment which German has done well. but when it comes to clean reliable energy, Germany has failed.



and yes 30 times.............wow DIRTY GERMANY'S $1.5 trillion, 50 year, blood gas strategy doesn't look so good compared to world leaders

1659179801268-png.1460863


View attachment 1461623



and compared to Ontario


The greenhouse gas intensity of Ontario’s electricity grid, measured as the GHGs emitted in the generation of the province’s electric power, was 30 grams of CO2e per kilowatt-hour (g of CO2e/kWh) electricity generated in 2019. This is an 87% reduction from the province’s 2005 level of 230 g of CO2e/kWh. The national average in 2019 was 120 g of CO2e/kWh (Figure 8).
<<<
Emission intensity is the volume of emissions per unit of GDP. Reducing emission intensity means that less pollution is being created per unit of GDP. BUT! And this is a big ‘but’ – if GDP grows then so too do total emissions. A more concrete measure of emission reduction is an “absolute reduction”. That‘s the reduction in the total emissions. To tackle climate change total emissions must go down so an absolute reduction is the most relevant measure. Developed countries, like the US and Europe, have submitted absolute emission reduction targets reflecting their intent to reduce their total emissions.

Australia’s capacity to reduce emissions is very high. For example, our emission intensity is roughly twice that of the USA (twice as many tonnes of CO2-e* per $million GDP) and about 2.5 times that of Europe. So really, we have the capacity to reduce our emissions more than either the USA or Europe. However, because we start from such a high emission intensity we have a lot of “low-hanging fruit” and even relatively easy reductions in emission intensity will look large in terms of percentage.

*The ‘e’ in CO2-e stands for ‘equivalent’. This gives other greenhouse gases such as methane, nitrous oxide, etc. a value in CO2 based on their global warming potential. That way you can total them all, rather than having a list of different gases.


Like i keep trying to say, noone gives a scomo about your cherry picked pet statistic.

To stop climate change we need to reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions.
 

Kwality

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'To stop climate change we need to reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions.'
We ALL, including China, Russia etc ?


Meanwhile back at the ranch that is home to the east coast power cock up .... AEMO reports on record Q2 2022 - Energy Magazine

'AEMO Executive General Manager – Reform Delivery, Violette Mouchaileh, said the quarter has been one of the most complex and challenging periods, underscoring the need to accelerate the transition to the cheapest form of reliable electricity.'

YEH, reliable electricity ....... accelerate the transition, YEH ..... make sure you are going in the right direction Violette.

In cricket you first need to get the ball on the wicket ...
 

SaintsSeptember

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<<<
Emission intensity is the volume of emissions per unit of GDP. Reducing emission intensity means that less pollution is being created per unit of GDP. BUT! And this is a big ‘but’ – if GDP grows then so too do total emissions. A more concrete measure of emission reduction is an “absolute reduction”. That‘s the reduction in the total emissions. To tackle climate change total emissions must go down so an absolute reduction is the most relevant measure. Developed countries, like the US and Europe, have submitted absolute emission reduction targets reflecting their intent to reduce their total emissions.

Australia’s capacity to reduce emissions is very high. For example, our emission intensity is roughly twice that of the USA (twice as many tonnes of CO2-e* per $million GDP) and about 2.5 times that of Europe. So really, we have the capacity to reduce our emissions more than either the USA or Europe. However, because we start from such a high emission intensity we have a lot of “low-hanging fruit” and even relatively easy reductions in emission intensity will look large in terms of percentage.

*The ‘e’ in CO2-e stands for ‘equivalent’. This gives other greenhouse gases such as methane, nitrous oxide, etc. a value in CO2 based on their global warming potential. That way you can total them all, rather than having a list of different gases.



Like i keep trying to say, noone gives a scomo about your cherry picked pet statistic.

To stop climate change we need to reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions.

So Trinidad is a really good place to start saving the planet? Because they have a massive scope to reduce their intensity?
You just argued both sides.
To stop climate change we need to reduce overall greenhouse gas emission.

Yes.
Australia has less overall greenhouse gas emission than Ships do.
 

kranky al

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So Trinidad is a really good place to start saving the planet? Because they have a massive scope to reduce their intensity?
You just argued both sides.
To stop climate change we need to reduce overall greenhouse gas emission.

Yes.
Australia has less overall greenhouse gas emission than Ships do.
Heres me arguing germany gas reduced its emissions to about 75% of what it was.

Which last time i checked means its reduced its overall gg emission
 

SaintsSeptember

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Interestingly in the last 24 hours , the price of electricity in Germany has been between
EU208. and EU460.

Price in Victoria with ( currently ) a high wind percentage,
Between -$20.00 and $301.00.

NSW , $0 to $334
QLD , $0 to $359
Tas , -$6 to $398
S.A. -$81 to $310
W.A. $45 to $102.

Ontario 0 to $90 Canada monies.
 

Power Raid

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<<<
Emission intensity is the volume of emissions per unit of GDP. Reducing emission intensity means that less pollution is being created per unit of GDP. BUT! And this is a big ‘but’ – if GDP grows then so too do total emissions. A more concrete measure of emission reduction is an “absolute reduction”. That‘s the reduction in the total emissions. To tackle climate change total emissions must go down so an absolute reduction is the most relevant measure. Developed countries, like the US and Europe, have submitted absolute emission reduction targets reflecting their intent to reduce their total emissions.

Australia’s capacity to reduce emissions is very high. For example, our emission intensity is roughly twice that of the USA (twice as many tonnes of CO2-e* per $million GDP) and about 2.5 times that of Europe. So really, we have the capacity to reduce our emissions more than either the USA or Europe. However, because we start from such a high emission intensity we have a lot of “low-hanging fruit” and even relatively easy reductions in emission intensity will look large in terms of percentage.

*The ‘e’ in CO2-e stands for ‘equivalent’. This gives other greenhouse gases such as methane, nitrous oxide, etc. a value in CO2 based on their global warming potential. That way you can total them all, rather than having a list of different gases.



Like i keep trying to say, noone gives a scomo about your cherry picked pet statistic.

To stop climate change we need to reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions.

When considering an investment in our energy generation and transmission, we should consider facts that are relevant to this investment. This is CO2 per kwh.

You're right, as a nation we should also consider CO2 per unit of GDP and CO2 per capita and consider investment in double glazing, energy efficient equipment and shifting industry overseas etc. but this is not relevant to the investment in an energy grid
 

Kwality

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'As it stands, the gas trigger is a wholly inadequate measure to tackle our uncertain energy future in a globally disrupted market. It’s unfathomable why a country with abundant and diverse gas resources does not protect its domestic market more effectively. Remember – this gas crisis is an east coast problem. Western Australia put in place a domestic reservation policy years ago, which has worked exceedingly well. Over west, there is no crisis.'

the-gas-trigger-wont-be-enough-to-stop-our-energy-crisis-escalating-we-need-a-domestic-reservation-policy-188057

Read more: Why did gas prices go from $10 a gigajoule to $800 a gigajoule? An expert on the energy crisis engulfing Australia
 
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Power Raid

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'As it stands, the gas trigger is a wholly inadequate measure to tackle our uncertain energy future in a globally disrupted market. It’s unfathomable why a country with abundant and diverse gas resources does not protect its domestic market more effectively. Remember – this gas crisis is an east coast problem. Western Australia put in place a domestic reservation policy years ago, which has worked exceedingly well. Over west, there is no crisis.'

the-gas-trigger-wont-be-enough-to-stop-our-energy-crisis-escalating-we-need-a-domestic-reservation-policy-188057

Read more: Why did gas prices go from $10 a gigajoule to $800 a gigajoule? An expert on the energy crisis engulfing Australia

having gas supply secured is just part of the solution

there should be a national enquiry as to why
1) victoria did not allow for gas exploration and development, especially if a government was seeking to move away from coal to unreliable power. We'd have abundant gas, more appropriate for domestic distribution if not for the Vics (oh and QLd and NSW haven't done Australia any favours either)
2) the idea that a market is set up so fossil fuels can't make money no matter the market outcome, has resulted in under investment. Then ultimately resulting in gas power, being used not only for peaking and offsetting unreliable power it is being used for base load.
3) Gas supply comes in take or pay contracts. Meaning the gas power generation has to pay for the gas whether they use it or not. This again flows back to the market in its current form being the ACTUAL cause of market failure.

The solution is remove 6 minute immediate blocks and shift to a 1 week advance bid. This will resolve the market immediately and see a return to $0.04 - $0.08 per kwh
 

SaintsSeptember

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Even when they do use gas, they are not necessarily building the right power stations.

I guess when much of the Aussie public can only see the black/white reennooable/unreenooable options, they probably can't get their heads around different kinds of gas power stations.


I guess the Victorian government must have read that and decided we are a third world country.


NSW have 2 of 5 gas turbines with combined cycle. ( one built by Visy ). 42% of gas turbine capacity.
QLD have 9 of 16 with combined cycled. 53%
S.A. 4 of 11. 54%
Tas 1 of 2. 61%
Victoria: NONE .
W.A. 6 of 25.

I'm guessing the cheap options in Victoria reflect the economic factors you describe.


Construction of the Stratford Gas Turbine Plant, a 200 MW power station, was completed on what is now the Stratford Power Station site in June 1976.[1] It comprised four 50 MW units, each a Pratt and Whitney TwinPak of two FT4 gas turbines. The FT4 engine is the stationary version of the Pratt & Whitney JT4 aircraft engine. The plant was fired on natural gas, and the units were in open cycle configuration. The FT4 units were owned and operated (in turn) by NZED, NZE, ECNZ and Contact Energy. The four 50 MW units were decommissioned and removed in 2001, and used in the construction of the Valley Power Peaking Facility in Australia.
 

kranky al

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'As it stands, the gas trigger is a wholly inadequate measure to tackle our uncertain energy future in a globally disrupted market. It’s unfathomable why a country with abundant and diverse gas resources does not protect its domestic market more effectively. Remember – this gas crisis is an east coast problem. Western Australia put in place a domestic reservation policy years ago, which has worked exceedingly well. Over west, there is no crisis.'

the-gas-trigger-wont-be-enough-to-stop-our-energy-crisis-escalating-we-need-a-domestic-reservation-policy-188057

Read more: Why did gas prices go from $10 a gigajoule to $800 a gigajoule? An expert on the energy crisis engulfing Australia
Answer over east is just that bit more corrupt
 

dockerfemme

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I find this clip interesting and instructive.

Jesse Jenkins is a really highly regarded macro energy engineer (or something) at Princeton who was a lead on a major report about the States called Net Zero America.

I would like to know why the States needs firming electricity generation such as nuclear, hydrogen or gas with CCS and Australia doesn’t seem to see a need. I know the sun and wind on the east coast is probably as good as anywhere in the world, but I would feel better about Australia’s plans if they confronted a few hard questions.
 

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