The cock up that is the east coast energy market

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SaintsSeptember

TheBrownDog
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When did AGL buy, or be given responsibility for power generation ?
I understand electricity remains a State responsibility & Minister D'Ambrosio claims to be on top of things.
I'd prefer a map of Victoria's plans (including time frame & $s) be attached to the Ministers assurances.

We were sold renewables as cheaper because the sun & wind are free. For some reason the details (costs) around the grid were ignored & we will all be paying for for a bloody long time to come.
Was Greenpeace aware of the problems beyond the cost of generation or simply ignorant?

Victoria is in the Ministers hands, not AGL.

What you're going to send Clarkson in with his Russian mafia and force them to operate their power station against their will?

They own it. They can smash it.

Greenpeace are largely ignorant, though they are catching on to the fact that high profit corporations are able to buy "Green Electricity " without doing anything within their operations to improve their own footprint.
 

Taylor

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Greenpeace don't have to wear the costs for their political agendas. The goal is closer to how the UK is currently living in regards to energy availability but the reality of living like that will end every politician's career.

Of course their version of socialism hasn't ever been tried and if they did it right it would be different.
 

Kwality

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Ms D'Ambrosio is across energy - she's upped the targets. She should headline COP27, where increased targets ....

'The Andrews Labor Government will introduce the biggest energy storage targets in Australia – driving down power bills, creating thousands of jobs and boosting renewable energy investment across Victoria.

Premier Daniel Andrews and Minister for Energy Lily D’Ambrosio have announced the nation-leading targets alongside a $157 million package supporting renewable energy generation and storage projects across the state.

Victoria will reach a massive 2.6 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy storage capacity by 2030, with an increased target of 6.3 GW of storage by 2035 – that’s enough renewable energy to power around half of Victoria’s current homes at their peak energy use.'

Where is the plan Minister, the kpi's to deliver that plan or are we really in the hands of AGL ?
 

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SaintsSeptember

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Greenpeace don't have to wear the costs for their political agendas. The goal is closer to how the UK is currently living in regards to energy availability but the reality of living like that will end every politician's career.

Of course their version of socialism hasn't ever been tried and if they did it right it would be different.

The UK have massive gas generation capacity and its their main source of Electricity. 41%
They have wind capacity for something like 10 Loy Yang power stations, but its rare they approach that generation. 24%
They have significant Nuclear capacity. 16%

That mix makes them one of the lowest Carbon emitters in Europe.

If we ignore the countries blessed with an environment suitable for high scale Hydro Electricity.
Its France : 69% Nuclear.
Switzerland : Nuclear
Spain : Nuclear , Gas , Wind , Solar.
Denmark 42% wind. 30% coal. NOTE: When they are short , they can easily get Hydro Electricity from Sweden.
Austria : Hydro and Gas.
Great Britain and ireland.
Many of the former soviet countries are pretty good, since they have Nuclear power stations.

I don't mind them tearing down the coal stations, but they need to plan their contingency.
In Europe , you can cock it up totally, but there is always commercially available electricity from surrounding countries.
 

Kwality

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The UK have massive gas generation capacity and its their main source of Electricity. 41%
They have wind capacity for something like 10 Loy Yang power stations, but its rare they approach that generation. 24%
They have significant Nuclear capacity. 16%

That mix makes them one of the lowest Carbon emitters in Europe.

If we ignore the countries blessed with an environment suitable for high scale Hydro Electricity.
Its France : 69% Nuclear.
Switzerland : Nuclear
Spain : Nuclear , Gas , Wind , Solar.
Denmark 42% wind. 30% coal. NOTE: When they are short , they can easily get Hydro Electricity from Sweden.
Austria : Hydro and Gas.
Great Britain and ireland.
Many of the former soviet countries are pretty good, since they have Nuclear power stations.

I don't mind them tearing down the coal stations, but they need to plan their contingency.
In Europe , you can cock it up totally, but there is always commercially available electricity from surrounding countries.

Unfortunately the capacity is one thing, its whats generated that counts. See:

The U.K. went all in on wind power. Here’s what happens when it stops blowing​

BYSOPHIE MELLOR
September 16, 2021 at 7:59 PM GMT+10


Salutory lesson at the Brits expense. It does happen here.
 

SaintsSeptember

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Ms D'Ambrosio is across energy - she's upped the targets. She should headline COP27, where increased targets ....

'The Andrews Labor Government will introduce the biggest energy storage targets in Australia – driving down power bills, creating thousands of jobs and boosting renewable energy investment across Victoria.

Premier Daniel Andrews and Minister for Energy Lily D’Ambrosio have announced the nation-leading targets alongside a $157 million package supporting renewable energy generation and storage projects across the state.

Victoria will reach a massive 2.6 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy storage capacity by 2030, with an increased target of 6.3 GW of storage by 2035 – that’s enough renewable energy to power around half of Victoria’s current homes at their peak energy use.'

Where is the plan Minister, the kpi's to deliver that plan or are we really in the hands of AGL ?

Does that include the Snowy II?

6.3 GW of storage for how long ? Its meaningless to not talk about GWH of useable energy.
Only the homes , not industry?


The power in MW or GW is the maximim output. The Useable power in MWH or GWH is a measure of total energy that can be extracted.
These batteries are literally packs of AA's.
Tesla talk about 100MW/300 MWH. That's pretty impressive it can operate flat out for 3 hours.

Still 2GW Loy Yang can pretty much operate at 48GWH per day.

The $2.5 trillion reason we can’t rely on batteries to clean up the grid
 

Kwality

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Great to see Minister King addressing the cock up :thumbsu:

Labor reaches deal to bolster gas on east coast​


The federal government has reached an agreement with gas producers to add an extra 157 petajoules to the east coast gas market in 2023, according to Resources Minister Madeleine King.

She outlined the role that signing up gas exporters to a code of conduct will have on increasing transparency in the market.

“This new level of transparency, as well as increased supply, will put downward pressure on prices.

“There is no doubt gas prices are very unlikely to fall to the low points of $6 (a kilojoule) or $8 or even $10, but I do expect with increased supply there will be downward pressure on prices.”

 

DaRick

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Unfortunately, all this 'deal' does is lock in inflated gas prices.

The upshot is that inflation will be higher for longer (it would ordinarily have peaked by now) because the RBA will have to print money to give to consumers/businesses so they don't go under.

Really a lesser version of ZIM printing lots of money so they could import agricultural goods at short notice.
 

Kwality

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Unfortunately, all this 'deal' does is lock in inflated gas prices.

The upshot is that inflation will be higher for longer (it would ordinarily have peaked by now) because the RBA will have to print money to give to consumers/businesses so they don't go under.

Really a lesser version of ZIM printing lots of money so they could import agricultural goods at short notice.

The failure of State Governments to address LNG in a timely manner has come home to roost.
 

SaintsSeptember

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Great to see Minister King addressing the cock up :thumbsu:

Labor reaches deal to bolster gas on east coast​


The federal government has reached an agreement with gas producers to add an extra 157 petajoules to the east coast gas market in 2023, according to Resources Minister Madeleine King.

She outlined the role that signing up gas exporters to a code of conduct will have on increasing transparency in the market.

“This new level of transparency, as well as increased supply, will put downward pressure on prices.

“There is no doubt gas prices are very unlikely to fall to the low points of $6 (a kilojoule) or $8 or even $10, but I do expect with increased supply there will be downward pressure on prices.”


My big issue with gas exports, is that they need to add energy to liquify it.
That takes it from a relatively low carbon emitting fuel, to a higher one.

Because the energy used to liquify it is produced in Australia, it become an Australian emission and gets counted in our emissions per capita, even though it is being used to produce energy in other countries.

Without knowing too much about the process, i'm guessing that it "could" be a process that goes 100% renewable. Ie. Gas only gets liquified when there is a surplus of Solar Electricity.
Water Desalination could also use this method, but i suspect that the Wonthaggi plant has gone down the path of purchasing "green" energy instead.

Green Energy allows people with extra cash to claim that all their energy is green, even when there is none available. ( its like virtual storage ).
They are simply taking the green bragging rights from others who can't afford it. They can then point their finger at the poor people and blame them for global warming. On a day with surplus Solar and Wind, when there are no fossil fuels being used, they will tell you that you are causing carbon emissions.
 
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Kwality

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My big issue with gas exports, is that they need to add energy to liquify it.
That takes it from a relatively low carbon emitting fuel, to a higher one.

Because the energy used to liquify it is produced in Australia, it become an Australian emission and gets counted in our emissions per capita, even though it is being used to produce energy in other countries.

The EC use its own definition of renewables to include nuclear & gas as green.

The local hand wringers would have a caniption.
 

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SaintsSeptember

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The EC use its own definition of renewables to include nuclear & gas as green.

The local hand wringers would have a caniption.

Its the wrong terminology for sure.

It is more an enabler of green systems.
Nuclear is certainly green.

 

Kwality

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Thanks to Aunty for this graphical representation of the various States power usage/cost
for residential customers in the national electricity market (NEM) in 2021-22, by jurisdiction.

Composition of retail energy bill

Network costs are the largest component of retail energy bills(Source: Australian Energy Regulator, State of the Energy Market 2022, page 181)

Remember being sold the wholesale price as the cost of electricity, of course its cheaper, the sun is free & so is the wind.
 

QuietB

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Greenpeace don't have to wear the costs for their political agendas. The goal is closer to how the UK is currently living in regards to energy availability but the reality of living like that will end every politician's career.

Of course their version of socialism hasn't ever been tried and if they did it right it would be different.
Blaming rising energy costs on the transition to renewables is a lie.
  1. All coal fired power plants need to be replaced eventually. That has a cost. The market HAS decided that it will be cheaper to replace them with something else.
  2. Rising electricity prices are mostly due to rising fuel prices which in turn is 100% due to unfetted free market economics.
    • WA has cheaper power because of market intevention.
    • Vic has cheaper power because there is no external market for their brown coal
    • NSW and Qld are getting screwed over which is rising all east cost energy prices because Putin is a campaigner which is causing fuel costs to be out of control and NSW and Qld have to pay full tote odds in a world market. Which is a complete joke.
All infrastructure needs to be replaced eventually - that cost is not avoidable. We cannot run Loy Yang A for another 100 years.

The idea that we can just Keep Loy Yang A open or whatever other coal fired plant open is a LIE. You simply cannot do it for any number of reasons (life cycle, maintenance costs, financing, insurance, .......)

The notion that we cannot afford renewables is a LIE.

I know that conservatives love to simply kick the can down the road on everything, but you are running out of road.
 

SaintsSeptember

TheBrownDog
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Thanks to Aunty for this graphical representation of the various States power usage/cost
for residential customers in the national electricity market (NEM) in 2021-22, by jurisdiction.

Composition of retail energy bill

Network costs are the largest component of retail energy bills(Source: Australian Energy Regulator, State of the Energy Market 2022, page 181)

Remember being sold the wholesale price as the cost of electricity, of course its cheaper, the sun is free & so is the wind.

Larger users have significant costs based on their rolling peak use.
That means if something happens , and you use more electricity than normal one day, you wear a significant cost for it for the following year.

Its possible to use a battery to take the tops off the use, charge it off-peak ( currently night, even though there is no solar at night ), and then "somehow" discharge it when your use goes above a certain level that you've guessed. ( If you guess too high you achieve nothing, if you guess too low you flatten your battery before the peak demand subsides ).

Where i work , we suspect that we have been getting our peak readings when the power cuts out. When everything immediately starts up again at the same time it causes a higher than normal demand. So effectively the network causes our high network charges.
Luckily , if that's the cause we can overcome it with procedures.
 

Taylor

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Rising electricity prices are mostly due to rising fuel prices which in turn is 100% due to unfetted free market economics

Can I just point out that trade sanctions, embargos, cartels and government interventions locally moving away from support of fossil fuels is the exact opposite of free market economics.

When the USA could produce locally what it instead pays to have shipped on fuel hungry oil tankers from across the globe because it makes more political sense, it's not a free market.

When governments spend enough to buy over 20 nuclear reactors on green energy and then have to go back to coal - that's not a free market, it's political decisions creating the problems.
 

Taylor

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I know that conservatives love to simply kick the can down the road on everything, but you are running out of road.

I'm very much on the idea that we should be building lots of nuclear reactors now so we don't need to later be worrying about it at all. The battery demand is both relied on and ignored with renewables - we won't need to care about it.
 

Chief

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Can I just point out that trade sanctions, embargos, cartels and government interventions locally moving away from support of fossil fuels is the exact opposite of free market economics.
But you're pretending the world doesn't exist anywhere but a spreadsheet. You also forgot divestment by banks and investment funds.
 

SaintsSeptember

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Blaming rising energy costs on the transition to renewables is a lie.
  1. All coal fired power plants need to be replaced eventually. That has a cost. The market HAS decided that it will be cheaper to replace them with something else.
  2. Rising electricity prices are mostly due to rising fuel prices which in turn is 100% due to unfetted free market economics.
    • WA has cheaper power because of market intevention.
    • Vic has cheaper power because there is no external market for their brown coal
    • NSW and Qld are getting screwed over which is rising all east cost energy prices because Putin is a campaigner which is causing fuel costs to be out of control and NSW and Qld have to pay full tote odds in a world market. Which is a complete joke.
All infrastructure needs to be replaced eventually - that cost is not avoidable. We cannot run Loy Yang A for another 100 years.

The idea that we can just Keep Loy Yang A open or whatever other coal fired plant open is a LIE. You simply cannot do it for any number of reasons (life cycle, maintenance costs, financing, insurance, .......)

The notion that we cannot afford renewables is a LIE.

I know that conservatives love to simply kick the can down the road on everything, but you are running out of road.

Garbage.
Rising energy costs are due to the transition to renewables, or due to the renewables themselves.
You want to pay people to build huge amounts of surplus capacity. How can that not cost huge amounts of money.
Solar and Wind will not work unless there are huge amounts of surplus capacity, even then they will not supply electricity all the time.

Hazelwood was still running very happily from a mechanical point of view. Those sort of operations can pretty much be re-furbished forever.
There are limits to how long you want to keep doing it.

Writing LIE in capitals several times is one of the dumbest arguments on here. I'm sure that Einstein , rather than explain his ideas simply stood up and stated Newtonian Physics is a LIE i tell you, a LIE.

Here is how the transition to renewables costs you.

100% Coal. Power station charges X$ per KwH Resulting in enough money for profits , maintenance , running costs.

50% Coal. Power station has to charge extra to cover maintenance and running costs , which remain similar to when 100% utilised. Power station is expected to run whenever renewables fail.

That is not a lie. That is a clear and obvious reason why transition to renewables is costing us.

What we need is a solution for when our renewables fail ( and they will , they depend on the weather ), so we don't have a blackout.
That solution will also cost. Have a look at the price of Batteries. What is your low cost solution?
 

Taylor

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But you're pretending the world doesn't exist anywhere but a spreadsheet. You also forgot divestment by banks and investment funds.

I'm not pretending anything. When a nation reduces it's own oil production to then have the oil shipped in across the country then it's not about the environment - it's about politics.

The unfortunate truth here is that those in power are happy for regular people to suffer while their power games are playing out in Ukraine. Not just Ukraine, it's been happening for decades, it's just this time that machine has come up against an opponent who can cut off the fossil fuel that, unfortunately, is what powers our way of life.

The scale of the dependency is being shown to the world.
 

QuietB

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Garbage.
Rising energy costs are due to the transition to renewables, or due to the renewables themselves.
This is a lie.

Electricity prices have sky rocketed this year and that will continue next year and it is directly related to the wholesale cost of coal and gas.

It has zero to do with renewables.
 

Taylor

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This is a lie.

Electricity prices have sky rocketed this year and that will continue next year and it is directly related to the wholesale cost of coal and gas.

It has zero to do with renewables.

Only if you ignore that previous demand for coal dropped off because nations moved to renewables, now they are moving back to coal for security and demand has gone up.

They can't burn gas so they burn coal.

They should go nuclear, it will solve the issues - especially in Australia, but places like Germany chose to spend half a trillion on something else instead.
 

SaintsSeptember

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This is a lie.

Electricity prices have sky rocketed this year and that will continue next year and it is directly related to the wholesale cost of coal and gas.

It has zero to do with renewables.

This is a lie. You specifically mentioned Loy Yang.


The wholesale price for the first quarter in Victoria was just $57 a megawatt hour. The state relies on brown coal, which unlike black coal is not influenced by the global market because it’s not exported.

It was increasing prior the the spike in fuel prices. ( Ukraine War ).

Show me a model where renewables do not result in higher prices.
 

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