Oppo Camp The Collingwood Board Finals Discussion 2016 (poll added)

[BoxMatrix]

Might as well get this year's thread up and running. Only two days left until the best part of the season begins. We should be in for a great finals series this year with as many as 6 teams in the hunt for the flag. Hopefully this year's finals are not as dull and predictable as last year's...

Hoping for the Swans or Crows to win the flag.

Will be going to the MCG to see the Cats and Hawks as well. Should be a belter.

So... Who will win the flag?

 

[CFC2010]

Might as well get this year's thread up and running. Only two days left until the best part of the season begins. We should be in for a great finals series this year with as many as 6 teams in the hunt for the flag. Hopefully this year's finals are not as dull and predictable as last year's...

Hoping for the Swans or Crows to win the flag.

Will be going to the MCG to see the Cats and Hawks as well. Should be a belter.

So... Who will win the flag?

I said Cats before we beat them earlier in the year............and nothing has changed my mind since.

The Swans & Cats in the Granny...........I would love for GWS to snag one this year but can't see it happening!

 

[Matt_352]

Swans v Cats granny. Swans getting up by 3 goals.

 

[frizzle]

I think the Swans will win it too. Cats or Hawks to be their opponent.

 

[The Dawes]

ABH - Anyone But Hawthorn

 

[Vicky Park]

ABH

 

[Vicky Park]

Think Sydney will win it.

 

[eddiebankbalance]

Go the Crows.

 

[MJC23]

Sydney to beat Hawthorn in the GF but agree with the posters above, ABH!

 

[Saintly Viewed]

ABH

 

[Pie eyed]

Firmly on the GWS bandwagon.
I was a member and now both my daughters are to do our bit for AFL in Canberra.

A Raiders (even though I abhor NRL) GWH premiership double would be great for the economy here since Abbott raped it and more than a few frothies may get smashed.

Nothing like a Pies flag of course, more like a B&S in Wagga.

 

[Magpie Girl]

ABHSG
(anyone but Hawthorn Sydney Geelong)

 

[Pedro]

I think Sydney will be tough to topple. I'm also in the ABH camp, but you can't write them off. All the talk that they can't win it is rubbish imo. I wouldn't mind seeing Geelong win it, but I just don't trust them. They can be very ordinary at times. If there's a side to surprise from outside the top 4, I think its Adelaide.

If form counts for anything, West Coast are right up there, but I can't see them maintaining it without NN. I can't see North & the Bullies getting past week 1.

 

[TradeDraft]

Don't really care about the Finals. Just bloody hope the Hawks don't = our Record

 

[TradeDraft]

Think Sydney will win it.

I still think GWS are a Real Dark Horse for the Flag.

I reckon they will beat Swans this weekend

 

[TradeDraft]

ABHSG
(anyone but Hawthorn Sydney Geelong)

Doubt you find the Flag Winner out of those 4

 

[steelebottom22]

the pride of south australia cmon they took seedsman off us the least we could do is support them for a month as a thankyou

 

[Maggie5]

Go the doggies and if not GWS.
If either don't make it, who cares?

 

[joff]

Definitely don't want hawks anywhere near it think I'd like to see GWS get it done,not fussed with the rest

 

[Syphoncom]

West Coast v Western Bulldogs
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​

Two teams from the 'West'; in a first, the West Coast Eagles and the Western Bulldogs open the 2016 AFL finals campaign this Thursday night over at Domain Stadium. Whilst both teams have enjoyed solid seasons, injuries have impacted both clubs heavily. With one team flying and one team faltering, will the finals opener be a fizzer?

When & Where?


Elimination Final 1, 8:10PM THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 8, 2016 at Subiaco
​

On the cusp of opening the 2016 finals series, West Coast would be balancing conflicting emotions with their season. After a loss late in the season to Collingwood, the Eagles managed to win their last four games, including victories over GWS, Hawthorn, and Adelaide. Ensuring a home final despite missing the top 4, the Subiaco has been a fortress for the Western teams, especially when they're playing well.

Contrary to the Eagle's finish, the Bulldogs managed 3-3 to round out the season, including a close win against Collingwood in round 21. Dogged by injury, they will be desperate to regain some of their fire-power for their travel West. Unfortunately for Dogs fans, if their win rate against the Eagles is poor, their chances at their home ground are even worse.

With only four wins from their nineteen outings at Subiaco, Luke Beveridge and his boys certainly have their work cut out for them Thursday.

How will it happen?

Despite injuries to key personnel both teams performed admirably this year, however with 22 home and away games the season is never balanced.

As a 2015 Grand Finalist, West Coast had an understandably tough draw. Of their nine games against other finalists this year, only three were at Subiaco. Considering they're not known for travelling well, a 5-4 record for the Eagles seems a decent return given the lengthy trip. Contrasting this the Bulldogs had five home games, including 'away' games against North Melbourne and Geelong. Still, the Dogs managed just 4 wins with a percentage of 88.9%.

On form, the Eagles are probably the better side. Yet there is no doubt something about this Bulldogs team.

With an exciting brand of football and a tenacity that's been missing for years, the Dogs have been a delight to watch. Fast paced, contested football generally means the toughest and hardest succeed in September. The one thing the Bulldogs have in spades is toughness; ranking first in contested possessions, second in clearances and in inside 50's, they will no doubt get their hands on the ball. The biggest question – what they will do with it.

The Bulldogs would believe they can control possession and pace of the game. They would say they can contain the Eagles forwards. They are after all a miserly bunch – at an average of just 73 points a game they've conceded the third fewest points. But for all their disposal dominance, they must be able to score themselves to threaten the Eagles. And for all the praise their defensive efforts deserve, the Eagles have averaged only 65 points scored against them at their home ground.

A key strategy to winning will be suppressing the Eagle's forwards, Coleman medallist Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling. Whilst the Bulldogs have recalled forward Jake Stringer, having their leading goal scorer playing at VFL level there must be massive doubt over whether they can kick a winning score.

In their only encounter this year the Dogs did triumph over West Coast, but that was at the Docklands. The expanse of Subiaco should mute the effect of the Dogs' run, and no-one does it better there than the Eagles.

What will happen?
​

As of writing, the odds are:

No surprises here, the Eagles are almost unbackable closing in on $1.20. Finals are a different beast to home and away games, so anything can happen. Here however, they do reflect the enormity of the Bulldog's task.

Last time they met:

This time they meet:​

With so much of the top 8 occupied by perennial finalists, one could see merit in hoping the Dogs make it far in 2016. Cruelled by injuries however, their season that promised so much faltered late with losses to St Kilda, Fremantle, and Geelong twice.

Although the loss of Natanui is a huge one for West Coast, their current form shows they're capable of covering the big man. And whilst the importance of first-touch and the x-factor Nic Nat brings can't be overstated, their class around the ball and up forward should prove too much for the Bulldogs to handle.

The Dogs can take a lot of experience out of Thursday night, but the Eagles should win well.

West Coast by 28.

 

[Syphoncom]

Geelong v Hawthorn
​

The biggest game of the round by far, on Friday night the two titans go head-to-head to determine the Melbourne side guaranteed a preliminary final. With a rivalry extending back to 2008, these two sides with a combined seven (that's right, seven) Grand Final victories in the previous nine years know how to put on a show.

When & Where?​

Qualifying Final 1, 7:50PM FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 9, 2016 at the MCG
​

Despite finishing second on the AFL ladder, Geelong see their “home” final against Hawthorn played at the MCG this Friday night. Although Geelong fans would have loved another final down at Kardinia Park, the stadium simply can't sustain the crowd that will descend on the G. And although statistics are thrown around in every preview – regarding the when,where, and how – one thing remains a constant for these teams in recent history. Since the Hawks four point win in 2007 down in Tasmania, every game between these two teams has been at the MCG.

For all the talk about who really has the home ground advantage, the truth is, both these teams play well here. And perhaps more importantly, they play each other well. With the atmosphere of a Friday night game under lights, this shapes up to easily be one of the games of the year.

How will it happen?​

Although recent games between the Cats and Hawks have produced larger winning margins, recent history suggests a tight contest. Remarkably since 2007, in the 21 time these two teams have faced off, there has been a net score differential of 36 points with an average margin of under 17 points.

To put this in perspective against the other four teams (Sydney/GWS lacking match history), Adelaide have a 301 point differential with a 32.4 average margin against North, whilst West Coast boast a whopping 486 point differential, and a 43.3 average margin against the Dogs, over the same period.

Simply put, these two teams couldn't be any closer.

As far as play style and game-plans go however, for two dominant teams they could hardly be more different. Geelong thrive on contested possession, heaping pressure on the opposition, and suffocating them into error. They have been so effective, they not only have the most marks inside-50 of any team, but have also conceded the least.

For Hawthorn, almost the opposite. They sit second last to Essendon in contested possessions, yet as Alastair Clarkson remarked, they “don't give a toss about that.” Unlike their counterpart, Hawthorn's strength comes from their efficiency and precision. Masters in disposal, Hawthorn have recorded the least amount of clangers this season; they rarely turn the ball over and punish on the attack. Regardless of their preferred style, there is no doubt they can match pressure with the best come finals however. With both teams locked into their respective styles, individual performances may make the difference.

The Big 3
​

Hawthorn will be looking all over the ground for their leaders to step up. Up forward Cyril Rioli, Sam Mitchell in the midfield to quell Geelong's dominance and Josh Gibson down back.

Kicking a career best 44 goals already this season, the little maestro Cyril will need to provide some x-factor in the forward half.

Mitchell will need to be at his usual best come finals to contend with the likes of Selwood and Dangerfield. The best duo in the competition, Mitchell will be forced to work hard both ways as the Hawks aren't known for tagging the opposition.

And down back the Hawks will have the ever reliable Gibson to cut off Geelong supply. Although this year he has been more damaging offensively than previous years, whether defender James Frawley or Gibson get the task on Tom Hawkins, a win there will go a long way to turning the game.

For Geelong, so much rests on their midfield. Although they still possess a wealth of experience, their biggest strength this year has been the addition of Patrick Dangerfield. Combining with Joel Selwood, their success will be what propels Geelong into another Grand Final.

This year Geelong hasn't relied heavily on any individual to kick goals, but rarely have the Cats won a finals game with their big men quiet. Tom Hawkins has been kept goalless only twice this season; if he can kick three or more against the Hawks he will have done his job.

What will happen?
​

As of writing, the odds are:

With Hawthorn stumbling towards the end of the season, Geelong rightly sit as outright favourites. Although the closest odds of any game this weekend, Hawthorn at $2.30 seem good value.

Last time they met:
​

This time they meet:
​

What a game this will be. The best time of the year, the final provides the best action from the best teams. With everything to play for and both teams fielding healthy sides, there's no obvious stand-out for this match. Despite their stylistic differences, September action is always hard, fast, and demanding of excellence.

There's no doubt the well-drilled Hawks have what it takes, and on their march to a fourth consecutive flag they will be hard to beat. But unlike in previous years, the addition of Dangerfield to the Cats has almost single-handedly elevated them to a different tier. His midfield dominance and its effect on Selwood means the Cats should edge the Hawks around the ball, and this could prove vital.

It should be a tough contest, but I believe the Cats will lead when it matters most.

Geelong by 9.

 

[Big Bryza]

If I was going put my hard earned on a team, it would be the Swans. (and I have)

I think the winner will come from the Sydney match on the weekend. GWS are a real shot to win it as well, have plenty of X factor but also the substance to go the whole way.

The Hawks might have one last shot in them but I think it's unlikely. Danger and Selwood have to fire for the Cats but again I think either Sydney club will take care of them in a final.

History says Adelaide and West Coast can't win it but they'd be the best 5th/6th sides in recent memory, you will have earnt the win if you beat them.

Dogs and Roos are beaten up, they'll have a crack but run out of legs.


All Sydney GF for mine. The AFL will love it.

 

[BoxMatrix]

I said Cats before we beat them earlier in the year............and nothing has changed my mind since.

The Swans & Cats in the Granny...........I would love for GWS to snag one this year but can't see it happening!

No love for your Hawks this year?

 

[iGNITER]

Anyone but Cats or Hawks.

Think Sydney.

Would like to see Dogs, Adelaide or GWS.

 

[CFC2010]

No love for your Hawks this year?

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