The Crows Soft Draw

[Daytripper]

Firstly they play Lions and Suns twice and no disrespect intended but they are basically 4 guaranteed wins plus a percentage booster as well.

Then they play the following teams only once.

Carlton (away)
Collingwood (away)
Hawthorn (home)
Fremantle (home)
Sydney (home)
Essendon (home)
Bulldogs (away)

It is a seriously soft draw and questions need to be asked if they don't at least make top 4 in my opinion.

 

[10571z]

Should be interesting to see if they make the most of it

 

[Tex200]

Firstly they play Lions and Suns twice and no disrespect intended but they are basically 4 guaranteed wins plus a percentage booster as well.

Then they play the following teams only once.

Carlton (away)
Collingwood (away)
Hawthorn (home)
Fremantle (home)
Sydney (home)
Essendon (home)

It is a seriously soft draw and questions need to be asked if they don't at least make top 4 in my opinion.

Is this a genuine OP or do we read that after one loss the mighty Bomber juggernaut is already dead and looking for excuses

 

[Naitawhoey]

The AFL are well aware of the bandwagoning nature of the Crows fanbase and created the draw with that knowledge in hand

The more games the Crows win, the more money they make, the higher salaries they all get paid

 

[Daytripper]

Is this a genuine OP or do we read that after one loss the mighty Bomber juggernaut is already dead and looking for excuses

Huh?

 

[ok.crows]

The AFL are well aware of the bandwagoning nature of the Crows fanbase and created the draw with that knowledge in hand

The more games the Crows win, the more money they make, the higher salaries they all get paid

This season the Crows had their 20th anniversary game, and in all those 20 years the Crows crowd has arguably varied the least of all the clubs. The Crows have finished in the bottom 4 a few years, but in all those twenty years there have only been a few weeks here and there when the Crows have been top of the ladder. I think it has happened only twice, for no more than a couple of weeks each time.

The Crows supporters would be the most non-bandwagon supporters of all.

 

[woopedazz]

I think you need to remember the AFL is a business and entertaining games max profits. Crows were cast as a bottom 8 side by all the bigwigs and as such we have multiple games against fellow bottom 8 contenders.

Consider the fact that GCFC also wants a few closer games so they don't look completely ridiculous; factor in the fact we play them twice; again a "bottom 8 contender" to make GCFC look good.

Again the business model: We play Brisbane once at home and once away. When we play them at home the AFL model predicts that we are on the cusp of the 8 against a weaker team and they will get a good showing. When we play them away (at the end of the season) they are expecting the Brisbane crowd to be ratshit and not many Crows supporters make the flight across there regularly so they are basically sacrificing revenue from this match in order to max profits from others.

We play Port twice for the revenue again.

Looking at our "weak draw" we play a whole load of probable top 8 sides (Essendon, Freo, Sydney, Hawthorn, Carlton) only once. Yet the people talking these clubs up as top 4 are overenthusiastic. We play St. Kilda, Bulldogs and Geelong twice, all of which (Geelong is arguable) will finish above every team on that list of Adelaide-like teams you provided (excluding Collingwood).

Don't get where you are going?

Also why was Essendon in that list? Playing you guys only once makes our draw harder.

 

[Daytripper]

Also why was Essendon in that list? Playing you guys only once makes our draw harder.

As you said, they have been talked about as a probable top 8 side hence thats why I included them with the others.

Not saying that their draw is some sort of AFL conspiracy, just that they seem to have come out of it really well when you analyse it.

 

[Furn]

Playing Essendon once is not a good thing. Playing 3 of the top 4 from last year twice isn't either.

Pretty middle of the road draw really.

 

[i_hate_scams]

wait, this thread is not about collingwood.....

 

[daniel4tw]

Crows also had a bye in round 2 while all the the players were still fresh, and have to travel to WA in round 22. Compare that to Essendon who have a bye in rd22, yet your arguing crows have it easy?

Of the teams listed, crows have already beaten the hawks so I would prefer to play them again, plus crows have an excellent record against the swans. As for essendon, I don't think I'd have a problem playing them twice...

There are many other top 4 potentials which crows play twice, but I suppose that didn't fit into your argument...

 

[Daytripper]

Pretty middle of the road draw really.

You can't be serious ?

No other team plays the Qld sides twice.

And they only play Bulldogs once as well - I left them out in error.

 

[Astro_]

Had Adelaide played Essendon twice then I would call it a soft draw and expect them to finish top

 

[Daytripper]

There are many other top 4 potentials which crows play twice, but I suppose that didn't fit into your argument...

Besides Geelong and St Kilda who else ?

 

[Big Sledge #32]

Then they play the following teams only once.

Carlton (away)
Collingwood (away)
Hawthorn (home)
Fremantle (home)
Sydney (home)
Essendon (home)

It is a seriously soft draw and questions need to be asked if they don't at least make top 4 in my opinion.

Just curious as to why only playing Essendon a team which finished bottom four and we demolished by 80 odd points is on that list. All the other teams were top 8 last and have a reasonable amount of expectations to improve on that. Whilst Essendon's hopes are pinned on the back of a new coach. When the AFL decided the draw they had us as a bottom 8 side from last year. The popular consensus amongst the media is that we had lost too much experience to make the top 8 this year and you could argue the AFL adjusted accordingly.

Adelaide still have Geelong & St Kilda twice so it isn't all roses, but I will back our youth in for a good showing against any team in the comp. At the start of the season if any 'expert' had us top 4 he would have been the butt end of numerous BF threads & posts.

The only serious question that needs to be asked is where the hell did Essendon supporters get their inflated value of their opinion?

 

[MarcusP2]

The six teams we play twice are Port, Brisbane, GC, Geelong, St Kilda, Eagles.

Basically a possible bottom four and two of the top four from last year. That is an excellent draw. Of course of the four possible longer interstate trips we only miss Fremantle away, and we travel to Queensland twice and Subiaco once in the last 5 weeks.

 

[daniel4tw]

Besides Geelong and St Kilda who else ?

How many top 4 teams are we suppose to play? We play two top 4 teams from the year before twice, yknow, the same as essendon.

 

[Daytripper]

Just curious as to why only playing Essendon a team which finished bottom four and we demolished by 80 odd points is on that list. All the other teams were top 8 last and have a reasonable amount of expectations to improve on that. Whilst Essendon's hopes are pinned on the back of a new coach. When the AFL decided the draw they had us as a bottom 8 side from last year. The popular consensus amongst the media is that we had lost too much experience to make the top 8 this year and you could argue the AFL adjusted accordingly.

Adelaide still have Geelong & St Kilda twice so it isn't all roses, but I will back our youth in for a good showing against any team in the comp. At the start of the season if any 'expert' had us top 4 he would have been the butt end of numerous BF threads & posts.

The only serious question that needs to be asked is where the hell did Essendon supporters get their inflated value of their opinion?

Sigh - this is not an Essendon thread but I will try and explain it for the intellectual giants out there. They are currently rated a $2.05 chance to make the 8 which means that the people that matter (not BF nuffies) obviously think they are a big chance to be a finalist this year. They are the 9th highest ranked side according to betting agencies with the next best (Melbourne) rated a fair way off them.

Of the top 9 sides currently in betting - Adelaide only play 2 of them twice (obviously excluding themselves).

I hope thats clear for everyone. Realise that maths isn't a subject that many schools treat seriously these days.

If you like, I will do a matrix up later which will explain it a bit more clearly.

 

[fddf]

Had Adelaide played Essendon twice then I would call it a soft draw and expect them to finish top

Unless you were the Bulldogs and had to play them twice. Would finish with a percentage of 50.

Our draw is definitely nice this year and we can capitalise on it. It definitely isn't the best draw possible but we have had worse.

 

[Primetime Pricey]

Has anyone else noticed they only play at AAMI or go to Melbourne til Rd 20? They then play Brisbane at the Gabba. Thats pretty good. 50min flight to Melbourne or jump in the car to AAMI.

 

[daniel4tw]

So at $2.05 the bookies are saying essendon are more likely to miss the 8, then make it. Interesting that you chose the arbitary number of top 9 instead of the conventional top 8. Thus making it a thread about essendon.

 

[SebastianVettel]

"9-13 team from 2010 gets easier draw than some" shocker!

 

[woopedazz]

Sigh - this is not an Essendon thread but I will try and explain it for the intellectual giants out there. They are currently rated a $2.05 chance to make the 8 which means that the people that matter (not BF nuffies) obviously think they are a big chance to be a finalist this year. They are the 9th highest ranked side according to betting agencies with the next best (Melbourne) rated a fair way off them.

Of the top 9 sides currently in betting - Adelaide only play 2 of them twice (obviously excluding themselves).

I hope thats clear for everyone. Realise that maths isn't a subject that many schools treat seriously these days.

If you like, I will do a matrix up later which will explain it a bit more clearly.

So just to clarify:

You are ranked as the 9th best side.* Apparently Adelaide; a team striving to make the finals and a team that finished above you last year has a weak draw because we avoid playing the 9th best side twice. Please do a matrix... I don't get it.

*According to your logic that money on a side = position on ladder and not a giant circle jerk sploosh of money from Essendon supporters praying to their messiah. A sploosh that actually has them as NOT making the 8.

 

[Daytripper]

So just to clarify:

You are ranked as the 9th best side.* Apparently Adelaide; a team striving to make the finals and a team that finished above you last year has a weak draw because we avoid playing the "9th best on side" twice. Please do a matrix... I don't get it.

*According to your logic that money on a side = position on ladder and not a giant circle jerk sploosh of money from Essendon supporters praying to their messiah.

FFS - $2.05 (which is best price in Oz - most places are $2.00) is as good as close to 50% as you can get.

I'd expect to be having to explain basic maths to Collingwood supporters - not Adelaide supporters.

And yes - only Essensdon supporters have backed Essendon with the corporates.

 

[magtrev]

Two of the top four, we generally play poorly at the Gabba, we are traditionally west coasts bitches, showdowns are always form irrelevant and the GC(lol).

Not the hardest fixture ever but it's not like we are good enough to gaurantee any wins from any of them except maybe the suns games