The Crows Soft Draw

[sbenno]

Has anyone else noticed they only play at AAMI or go to Melbourne til Rd 20? They then play Brisbane at the Gabba. Thats pretty good. 50min flight to Melbourne or jump in the car to AAMI.

LOL this from a Collingwood supporter... How many times do Collingwood actually leave Melbourne this year? You don't leave Melbourne until R14, and travel only 4 times. What a Joke.

We thought we had a soft draw last year, with an opener against Freo, and look how they turned out. It's too early to start pigeon holing sides.

 

[bodazoka]

Yeah and the AFL sets it up so they dont travel at all! it is about time they left Melbou... wait a minute this is a Collingwood thread right?

 

[sbenno]

Yeah and the AFL sets it up so they dont travel at all! it is about time they left Melbou... wait a minute this is a Collingwood thread right?

I didn't mean to derail the thread, but I take exception when a Collingwood supporter says an interstate side's travelling schedule is "pretty good".

 

[Primetime Pricey]

LOL this from a Collingwood supporter... How many times do Collingwood actually leave Melbourne this year? You don't leave Melbourne until R14, and travel only 4 times. What a Joke.

We thought we had a soft draw last year, with an opener against Freo, and look how they turned out. It's too early to start pigeon holing sides.

Hey i said we have a easy draw this season. Im just saying the Crows have a very easy draw as well.

You are going to make the 8 easily. You play the Gold Coast, Brisbane, West Coast and North twice. Thats 32 pts already

 

[magtrev]

North once.

Plus we're not as good as people think we are just cos we beat Hawthorn.

Easy draw yes, garaunteed good season because of it? no.

 

[Mong]

if you look back over the last few years you will see teams that finish bottom 8 tend to play each other more than the top 8 teams. Which also means top 8 teams play each other more often than bottom 8 teams. This gives teams outside the 8 the opportunity to "come from nowhere" to make the top 8.

I thought this was common knowledge. I have certainly heard AFL officials mention this in interviews. Bottom 8 teams from the previous year get easier draws than top 8 teams.

We (Crows) have certainly got a very fortunate draw this year even though we do travel to Brisbane, Gold Coast and West Coast in the last five rounds (which probably isn't as bad as it sounds).

 

[Mong]

A double round robin home and away season is the only fair way to run the league, but unfortunately this will never happen.

Given that we have a finals system I don't think the draw inequalities are a huge problem. Yes, top 8 positions are important going into the finals but it doesn't matter how easy your draw is, you're going to have to beat the good teams to go far in September.

 

[im_a_lazy_sod]

You can only beat whatever team is put in front of you

I compared our seasons to Adelaide (and Brisbane - I was doing it alphabetically, but gave up after the lions ) in terms of travel before round 1 - Adelaide travel i think around 20,000 km and we travel around 60,000 km I think it was

Obviously we are a lot further away to the majority of the competion but that's a huge gab

Not 100% sure if those figures are correct - the spreadsheet is on my laptop (which i'm not at atm)

Having a bye so early could hurt them - especially with 4 players coming in this weekend who haven't even played a proper game

 

[longsuffreosupp]

I think we should finish bottom 8 this year. 2 lots of GC and GWS, and other bottom 8 sides would be delicious.

 

[syl]

Firstly they play Lions and Suns twice and no disrespect intended but they are basically 4 guaranteed wins plus a percentage booster as well.

Then they play the following teams only once.

Carlton (away)
Collingwood (away)
Hawthorn (home)
Fremantle (home)
Sydney (home)
Essendon (home)
Bulldogs (away)

It is a seriously soft draw and questions need to be asked if they don't at least make top 4 in my opinion.

So they play Geelong, St Kilda, Hawthorn twice? Not an easy draw, you seriously over estimate Essendon and Fremantle.

They do have it good with 4 games against the Queensland sides, but you couldn't see them being this easy... although quite easy.

And Adelaide aren't bandwagon supporters, that's Sydney

 

[magtrev]

It's been quite amusing to see just about every media outlet pick this story up over the last couple of days after this thread

 

[Daytripper]

So they play Geelong, St Kilda, Hawthorn twice? Not an easy draw, you seriously over estimate Essendon and Fremantle.

They only play Hawthorn once.

Also the marketplace has the top 9 sides and then a gap to the rest. Essendon and Fremantle are included in those top 9 chances.

 

[Ants]

It's been quite amusing to see just about every media outlet pick this story up over the last couple of days after this thread

Where else do you expect them to get the news from?

 

[Ants]

I'm not really sure what your point is, particularly your last statement. What questions would need to be asked?

BTW in 2007 Essendon finished 12th. In 2008 you played two games against WB (13th), Carlton (15th) and Richmond (16th). You only played one top four team twice in WC (3rd) who subsequently ended up finsihing 15th in 2008. You only traveled outside of Victoria on four occasions. If that isn't the softest of fixtures I don't know what is.

What did you do with this dream fixture? You finished 12th again!!

What questions did you ask at the end of 2008? Afterall, if you couldn't make the top four with that seriously soft fixture, questions need to be asked!

Finally, why are you including Essendon in your calculations? In the last four years you have finsihed 12th, 12th, 8th and 14th. Using betting odds as justification is just embarrassing.

I know what questions I asked. I asked why couldn't we have a soft draw when we were finals contenders instead of rubbish. But that's the way it goes sometimes - Knights might be cursing the draw he got in his 3rd year instead of a soft one in his first year as well!

I also love it how in a discussion that you guys happen to have got a soft draw, everyone jumps on one guy's view that we're finals contenders. Molehill to Mountain.

 

[rickyp]

Sigh - this is not an Essendon thread but I will try and explain it for the intellectual giants out there. They are currently rated a $2.05 chance to make the 8 which means that the people that matter (not BF nuffies) obviously think they are a big chance to be a finalist this year. They are the 9th highest ranked side according to betting agencies with the next best (Melbourne) rated a fair way off them.

I don't think you understand how betting works if you consider odds to be any indication of an experts opinion. They are, in fact, exactly the same as the 'BF nuffies', nothing more than a statistical formula based on the amount of $ placed by the general public.

 

[Daytripper]

I don't think you understand how betting works if you consider odds to be any indication of an experts opinion. They are, in fact, exactly the same as the 'BF nuffies', nothing more than a statistical formula based on the amount of $ placed by the general public.

LOL - I've got a bit more experience than you champ and you couldn't be more wrong if you tried.

Your formula is based on how the tote works on horse racing.

Sports betting is a totally different format - Bookmakers could have someone favourite and not laid a single cent on it.

 

[rickyp]

LOL - I've got a bit more experience than you champ and you couldn't be more wrong if you tried.

Your formula is based on how the tote works on horse racing.

Sports betting is a totally different format - Bookmakers could have someone favourite and not laid a single cent on it.

I think you should check that again

When a large sum of money is placed on a team, their odds come down to reduce the demand to place money on that team. Why do you think Essendons odds have greatly reduced since the end of last season? It's because they have had a large amount of money placed on them since the beginning of the pre season. The fluctations in price are only an indication of the future liability of the teams performance TO THE BOOKMAKER. It's mathematical, nothing more.

 

[RodneyMaynard]

We have a favorable draw this year. Previous years, not so much. With 16 (soon 18) teams and only 24 rounds you'll always have good draws and bad. As to why we drew the GC twice it's got nothing to do with giving Adelaide an easy ride, and everything to do with crowds. For the Suns game at Footy Park a big crowd's going to turn up to hurl abuse at Bock. At Carrara stadium, the AFL knows that Crows fans travel, and need a lot of interstate fans to help fill the stands. I've already got my tickets to the game fyi

 

[Daytripper]

I think you should check that again

When a large sum of money is placed on a team, their odds come down to reduce the demand to place money on that team. Why do you think Essendons odds have greatly reduced since the end of last season? It's because they have had a large amount of money placed on them since the beginning of the pre season. The fluctations in price are only an indication of the future liability of the teams performance TO THE BOOKMAKER. It's mathematical, nothing more.

For the last time, you are thinking of how the tote works. The way bookmakers odds are set is totally different as there is room for opinion and subjectivity. I have worked on and off for bookmakers (both corporate and on course) for almost 20 years.

Please stop before it becomes embarrassing.

 

[Belnakor]

The Crows supporters would be the most non-bandwagon supporters of all.

you make me laugh

 

[Slippery Pete]

Firstly they play Lions and Suns twice and no disrespect intended but they are basically 4 guaranteed wins plus a percentage booster as well.

Then they play the following teams only once.

Carlton (away)
Collingwood (away)
Hawthorn (home)
Fremantle (home)
Sydney (home)
Essendon (home)
Bulldogs (away)

It is a seriously soft draw and questions need to be asked if they don't at least make top 4 in my opinion.

So we are starting to see what it's like to be Essendon every year?

At least we get on a plane more than four times.

 

[Slippery Pete]

I'd say its a pretty good draw! They play two of the first three at home, and the game in the middle they had a bye. Soft start, hopefully that helps us this w/end.

When has anything like that ever helped you.

 

[WALL-e]

Love how the draws being run through the media following the 'revelation' of the GC having stuggles playing AFL level footy.

This has been the same schedule since late last year.

IF you want to judge a schedule off two rounds you can come to the roadblock of us playing powerhouse West Coast, the undefeated jugganuaght of 2011.

That said, I'm happy with the draw, and understand we cop a lot of travel in the last 5 weks as a result of the soft home start.

Would take MANY teams travel schedule over ours, but that's the nature of the beast.

 

[ok.crows]

you make me laugh

How so?

Here is a breakdown of Adelaide's attendances.

http://stats.rleague.com/afl/crowds/adelaide.html#02a

Lots of numbers there for you to enjoy.

Only 3 home game attendances less than 30,000 in twenty years. Home games for Adelaide are characterised by almost all of the crowd being for Adelaide ... so this is like a 50,000 crowd if there were actually some opposition supporters there in numbers.

Their best home crowd against an interstate opponent was Collingwood in 1993, 48522. Their worst home crowd was against Fitzroy in 1992, 25597.

In comparison:
http://stats.rleague.com/afl/crowds/fremantle.html#02a

Oh dear. 28 home games with crowds 10,000-20,000 and 57 home games with crowds 20,000-30,000. Their best home crowd against an interstate opponent was 41624 against Collingwood last year, and their worst was 10826 against Port in 2000.

It would seem that the variability (best compared with worst) in Fremantle's support is considerably greater than the variability in Adealide's. If anything, Freo supporters are the huge bandwagonners.

 

[im_a_lazy_sod]

It helps when you're the first team in your respective state

Also the cost for traveling fans from melbourne/adelaide/sydney is a lot more (and a huge distance) than say melbourne/sydney fans travelling to adelaide - also goes both ways for our away fans

only 3 of those games are post 2000s (most 1995, 1996, 1997) and 2 of them were at the WACA and the other was against Port (Port also at the WACA)

No-one wanted to go see a new wa team in the comp when the other wa team had just won 2 of the last 3 flags and that's something we had no control of and had to deal with

Any chance of giving those figures as percentages? (given AAMI's capacity is bigger than Subis, naturally a bigger stadium would get more fans in as there's more chance of better seats)