Prediction The data tells us Sinclair and Steele will be elite and 2018 will be huge

[Marching]

Single variant analysis using disposals shows us that reaching 20+ disposals in 3rd year @ +30% growth vs yr 2 predictive for year 4 emerging superstar status...
The data is in.. Sincs and Steele are Heading for 25 disp players in 2018 en route for elite careers using the patented "mitchellparkerslonemartinkelly" index. On track to be better than stuv Ross and Armo too meaning our 2018 midfield disp averages will most probhably look like:

Kelly 30+
Ross 27+
Stuv 27+ (post the Kelly tag relief)
Sincs 25
Steele 25
Newnes 24 (if he holds his 2yr ave)
Koby 23+
Dunny 22+
Achres 22+

Wildcard Armo... ??

Sick of the melts about having no elite talent in the midfield... TEAM midfields aren't elite as a 3rd 4th year group BUT look at the delicious data...

And this fellow Sainters is why our midfield is f*^%ing rocking and we'll take home some silverware before 2020...

 

[Mav2Membrey]

2017 (Steele) vs 2002 Lenny (same age)
17 Games 20
7.3 Kicks Per Game 10.0
14.1 Handballs Per Game 10.2
21.4 Disposals Per Game 20.2
3.5 Marks Per Game 3.3
0.3 Goals Per Game 0.4
0.5 Behinds Per Game 0.2
7.8 Tackles Per Game 5.0

 

[Mav2Membrey]

... And Lenny broke out the next year in regards to disposals and goals per game. Get pumped

 

[NarklesHelmet]

Great post! The blokes you've mentioned are still so young age and games-wise but there is a lot of hand-wringing about why they aren't producing like freaks Bont and Cripps when they are tracking very nicely indeed.

With our gut-busting gameplan, pre-seasons for young kids are vital too so I've got no doubt they'll keep developing as they should and will be peaking right when they should be, from 2018 onwards.

 

[PoppedCorn]

I ain't reading s**t until you spell Gods name correctly

 

[Crusty Undies]

I ain't reading s**t until you spell Gods name correctly

Praise our lord and savior Achres.

 

[Marching]

... And Lenny broke out the next year in regards to disposals and goals per game. Get pumped

I ain't reading s**t until you spell Gods name correctly

Same age.. Luke ball left.. god Achres right....
Almost all players of our current side compare well vs the saints team of 09/10 at same age at midfield, half back, half fwd. we still have the same problem we had with pace now that we did in that side...
Another key difference is absence of gun KPF (I.e no too in 2018 side) but we're more balanced as a total fwd line now. We never had a good 3rd tall outside of kos and roo. Another difference is Milne Schneider vs billings fresh (cold be better now if you add up both players output).
How do ppl think our back line of the future compares to 09/10?

 

[CALL ME SNAKE]

Sometimes you don't need stats to figure out how good a kid will be.

 

[bergholt]

I like your stats, hope they come true!

Another way to look at it is that 2018 will see a bunch of players with 3-5 pre-seasons and between 40 and 70 games, which is often a fast improvement time for players:

Dunstan: 69 games, 5 pre-seasons
Billings: 64 games, 5 pre-seasons
Membrey: 50 games, 6 pre-seasons
Acres: 44 games, 5 pre-seasons
Sinclair: 44 games, 4 pre-seasons
Gresham: 40 games, 3 pre-seasons
Lonie: 38 games, 4 pre-seasons
Steele: 37 games, 4 pre-seasons

I reckon any or all of those could take another step up next year, including the guys you mention. If that happens we'll be looking pretty good.

 

[CALL ME SNAKE]

I like your stats, hope they come true!

Another way to look at it is that 2018 will see a bunch of players with 3-5 pre-seasons and between 40 and 70 games, which is often a fast improvement time for players:

Dunstan: 69 games, 5 pre-seasons
Billings: 64 games, 5 pre-seasons
Membrey: 50 games, 6 pre-seasons
Acres: 44 games, 5 pre-seasons
Sinclair: 44 games, 4 pre-seasons
Gresham: 40 games, 3 pre-seasons
Lonie: 38 games, 4 pre-seasons
Steele: 37 games, 4 pre-seasons

I reckon any or all of those could take another step up next year, including the guys you mention. If that happens we'll be looking pretty good.

Just my opinion but I'm not sure Lonie has enough ability to be anything other than a goal sneak. And it's probably just about the toughest spot on the ground to play and to be consistent in. We were all spoilt by Milneys longevity and freakish ability.
Think Lonie will be an in & out of the side depth player ( albeit a pretty good one). So I think he's worth keeping.
And I think Dunstan will just find more consistency in his games like he has the last few weeks. Not sure he will get all that much better. But that's ok. His recent form makes him a bloody handy player for us, and a good strong bodied mid rotation which is very important in finals
As for the others you mentioned. They all have very high ceilings. It's gonna be bloody exciting to see how far they can improve.

 

[bergholt]

Just my opinion but I'm not sure Lonie has enough ability to be anything other than a goal sneak. And it's probably just about the toughest spot on the ground to play and to be consistent in. We were all spoilt by Milneys longevity and freakish ability.

I'm not giving up on Lonie yet, I still think he's shown signs of the ability. But physically he needs at least one more pre-season, he needs another 5 kegs of muscle. If he had Wright's body then he'd be a good player.

 

[CALL ME SNAKE]

I'm not giving up on Lonie yet, I still think he's shown signs of the ability. But physically he needs at least one more pre-season, he needs another 5 kegs of muscle. If he had Wright's body then he'd be a good player.

Yeah I don't want to write him off or trade him yet.
Good luck to the kid. Hope he comes on and cements a spot in the team.
But like I said if he can't he is still a bloody handy depth player.
And all clubs need them.

 

[Left_Billings]

Actually met Lonies Mum and Sister on the weekend and let me tell you if they are anything to go by he is not getting much bigger anytime soon

 

[VDS66]

Actually met Lonies Mum and Sister on the weekend and let me tell you if they are anything to go by he is not getting much bigger anytime soon

Certainly won't get taller. Might add a few kegs but that will be it.

Biggest concern that he is told to work on is his strength in the contest.

He will probably get one more year.

 

[BangersAndMash]

Throw Freeman in there as a smokey...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Glen Buterol]

Great stats there mate, shows I have been a bit premature in losing patience with some of our young players & their development.

 

[CALL ME SNAKE]

Actually met Lonies Mum and Sister on the weekend and let me tell you if they are anything to go by he is not getting much bigger anytime soon

The Lonie family are actually Matryoshka Dolls

That's Jack far right

 

[StCicatriz]

It's not just the amount of disposal but also what they do with it

Which is why Sinclair's are so important. I don't think I've ever seen him burn the football

 

[Glen Buterol]

It's not just the amount of disposal but also what they do with it

Which is why Sinclair's are so important. I don't think I've ever seen him burn the football

He's currently our best user & decision maker with footy in hand without a doubt.

 

[sauce_head]

View attachment 401090 Single variant analysis using disposals shows us that reaching 20+ disposals in 3rd year @ +30% growth vs yr 2 predictive for year 4 emerging superstar status...
The data is in.. Sincs and Steele are Heading for 25 disp players in 2018 en route for elite careers using the patented "mitchellparkerslonemartinkelly" index. On track to be better than stuv Ross and Armo too meaning our 2018 midfield disp averages will most probhably look like:

Kelly 30+
Ross 27+
Stuv 27+ (post the Kelly tag relief)
Sincs 25
Steele 25
Newnes 24 (if he holds his 2yr ave)
Koby 23+
Dunny 22+
Achres 22+

Wildcard Armo... ??

Sick of the melts about having no elite talent in the midfield... TEAM midfields aren't elite as a 3rd 4th year group BUT look at the delicious data...

And this fellow Sainters is why our midfield is f*^%ing rocking and we'll take home some silverware before 2020...

New chapter in freakanomics. Take a bow!

 

[The Punter]

Sinclair #2 in the league in disposals per kicking clanger.

2002 would have been a Lenny B&F year if he had not been thrown into a fence by the current North Melbourne coach. Hayes then won the B&F in 2003, and was All-Australian.

It's also worth think about the 50 game mark as when players take the next step. Let's look at it as the first full year you play after the season you play your 50th game.

Look at Newnes' 2016 compared to 2015.

Look at Seb Ross this year.

Looking forward to the next two years, here's a list of St Kilda players and current games played:

50th game this year

Billy Longer, Jack Billings

Less than 50 games

Tim Membrey (47)
Blake Acres (41)
Jack Sinclair (41)
Jade Gresham (37)
Jack Steele (34)

If Montagna retires and Sam Gilbert doesn't get to play 5 more games this season (unlikely), then we'll enter next season without a 200 game player, and with only one player with any chance to play 200 games next season.

The improvement left in this squad is enormous. It will be realised quicker if we can get a final into 21 of them (plus Rooey).

 

[VDS66]

Great stats there mate, shows I have been a bit premature in losing patience with some of our young players & their development.

A bit of premature exasperation, bro?

 

[VDS66]

Stiff on Savage and old mate Bazza White but I definitely agree he's the best decision maker we have.

We actually some really decent kicks Billings, Savage, Monty when he plays, Webster, Savage, Sinclair, Robbo and Carlisle etc..

I have no idea why we really resort to bombing the blood thing and have so many scrappy kicks in play

Lack of composure due to inexperience.

Will improve as they play more games together.

 

[King_Steele]

Great stats there mate, shows I have been a bit premature in losing patience with some of our young players & their development.

Don't worry about it mate, I'm in the same boat, we're just inpatient lol.

If we get Kelly, top 4 in 2018 IMHO

 

[Joffaboy]

He's currently our best user & decision maker with footy in hand without a doubt.

I doubt that

Reckon Jack Billings would give him a run for his money.

Imagine being a forward in their underage and school teams?