Preview The Defining 5.

[HeavyPop]

I'm confident we can win the next 4. No better time to play the Swans, Fremantle and Brisbane will both have the cue in the rack and Port, while troubling us in the past, just aren't that good. Great defence, but lowest amount of points kicked out of top 12 sides.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

No Vic opponents in the home stretch so every game has a genuine home ground advantage.

Sydney - I dont think we have reached the injury tipping point yet and they are in ordinary form. Its a must-win and the one that will make or break our year. Most important game since North two weeks ago!!!! Could end up missing finals if we lose it and top two if we win.
Brisbane - have been in good form but have gone off the boil a bit and its a danger game. Possibly our last chance to get some percentage. Every goal makes a difference as the percentage race is tight.

Win those two and top six should be a lock, and top four still very much live.

Port - should on paper be our toughest opponent and quite frankly it depends on who we have got back on the park by then. Hopefully no bad news re Mihocek or Howe, and De Goey Sier Fasolo Reid Aish are all banging the door down or already back in the seniors. Home game but I'll pencil in a loss
Fremantle - ideally it should be a dead rubber but it probably wont be. Comfortable win anyway. Will we see a Goldsack return?

Three wins should lock us top four.

 

[SheppPies]

No Vic opponents in the home stretch so every game has a genuine home ground advantage.

Sydney - I dont think we have reached the injury tipping point yet and they are in ordinary form. Its a must-win and the one that will make or break our year. Most important game since North two weeks ago!!!! Could end up missing finals if we lose it and top two if we win.
Brisbane - have been in good form but have gone off the boil a bit and its a danger game. Possibly our last chance to get some percentage. Every goal makes a difference as the percentage race is tight.

Win those two and top six should be a lock, and top four still very much live.

Port - should on paper be our toughest opponent and quite frankly it depends on who we have got back on the park by then. Hopefully no bad news re Mihocek or Howe, and De Goey Sier Fasolo Reid Aish are all banging the door down or already back in the seniors. Home game but I'll pencil in a loss
Fremantle - ideally it should be a dead rubber but it probably wont be. Comfortable win anyway. Will we see a Goldsack return?

Three wins should lock us top four.

I always like your posts Timmy.
This has been a shattering weekend for injuries. Shaz and Billy have been through hell.
Where is the tipping point?
It can’t be far off. The fact that it wasn’t weeks ago shows an almighty resolve in our team.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

I always like your posts Timmy.
This has been a shattering weekend for injuries. Shaz and Billy have been through hell.
Where is the tipping point?
It can’t be far off. The fact that it wasn’t weeks ago shows an almighty resolve in our team.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Tipping point is if Oxley Blair and Smith are all playing!!!!

(see my comments re the Port game. If we get those players back by then and no more injuries then we have avoided the tipping point and can start looking upwards again, hopefully with Treloar back by September as well)

 

[TradeDraft]

Could go to second if we stomp them?

That how close the Ladder is

 

[elpickle]

Could go to second if we stomp them?

I'm not saying we wrnt beat them or will get stomped. Just replying to him saying a loss and we are 7th is so definite when it can be worse

 

[Black_White]

While I expect to win each and every time we hit the field, I’m not fussed if we don’t make September this year.
We have significant injuries and seriously cannot flag this year.
Next year and the year after.
That’s when I want real tilt at sweet sixteen.
This years done, no matter any heroics to come.

 

[Carringbush2010]

The crux is the "tipping point" re injuries. I know it's not the norm for us but if we can stay injury free.......................... we can keep playing the system IF we are not already at "tipping point".

If we CAN keep playing the system then I'm confident in each of the last 4 - even Port. That'll get us top 4 maybe top 2.

We'll find out this week if we've managed to avoid said tipping point.

One thing is certain, the group and the panel are only - only - looking at this weeks game.

 

[Chrispiesssss]

1 - 2. We need to finish strong!!! Can’t afford another loss!!

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

1 win - home EF
2 wins (preferably with percentage added) - QF
0 wins - away EF

I know thats not 100% correct but simplified, thats the formula.

As for the injury tipping point............suddenly it has swung in our favour with a net improvement last week (in DeGoey Aish, only new injury Reid) and other key teams (top 8 or rd 22/23 opponents) losing key players (Swans Johnson Smith: Giants Shaw Kelly Deledio Reid: Power Dixon Polec Ryder: Geelong Stanley: Melboourne Hogan Hunt: : Freo Walters.

 

[TradeDraft]

1 win - home EF
2 wins (preferably with percentage added) - QF
0 wins - away EF

I know thats not 100% correct but simplified, thats the formula.

0 Wins can still mean Miss Finals

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

0 Wins can still mean Miss Finals

I guess you missed my disclaimer


I know thats not 100% correct but simplified, thats the formula.

 

[magpie_marty]

1 win - home EF
2 wins (preferably with percentage added) - QF
0 wins - away EF

I know thats not 100% correct but simplified, thats the formula.

If Hawthorn and Collingwood happen to win there last 2 games this would come down to the better % As to who finishes 4th?

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

If Hawthorn and Collingwood happen to win there last 2 games this would come down to the better % As to who finishes 4th?

Possibly and we are about seven goals behind them on percentage. Could easily close that gap over the next two matches.

On paper you'd think that Hawthorn should widen their percentage gap this weekend....they play StKilda while we play Port. If they do that then they should be favorite to keep their percentage advantage. As long as they win both games.

BUT.......if we manage to close the percentage gap this weekend (say beat Port by six goals and Haw only beat StKilda by three)........then we have a massive chance in rd 23 to pass the Hawks even if they win both games. Ross Lyon is a world renowned tanker so hopefully he lives up to his reputation in Rd 23!!!

 

[good4footy]

If Hawthorn and Collingwood happen to win there last 2 games this would come down to the better % As to who finishes 4th?

Unless GWS drop a game against either Syd or Melb.

 

[iGNITER]

We need to win both games.

Hoping Sydney knock off GWS this weekend.

That happens and we finish top 4.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

Two or three ways to finish top four. Both require us winning both games.

1. Hawthorn lose a game., One of those games is very loseable....v Sydney. Or Hawthorn win both but by 50 points less than we win by. If we manage to pass them on percentage at the Freo game it will make for an interesting live ladder in their game v Sydney that night!!!
2. GWS lose a game. Given they are decimated by injury and play the Swans and the Dees, dropping one of those games is not a stretch of the imagination.

If both happen we are third.

I think fourth is as good as certain if we win both games. And if we end up fifth....so be it, its still been a good year and a final or two can still be won.

 

[Matt_352]

Two or three ways to finish top four. Both require us winning both games.

1. Hawthorn lose a game., One of those games is very loseable....v Sydney. Or Hawthorn win both but by 50 points less than we win by. If we manage to pass them on percentage at the Freo game it will make for an interesting live ladder in their game v Sydney that night!!!
2. GWS lose a game. Given they play the Swans and the Dees, dropping one of those games is not a stretch of the imagination.

If both happen we are third.

I think fourth is as good as certain if we win both games. And if we end up fifth....so be it, its still been a good year and a final or two can still be won.

Dogs won a flag from 7th, no reason that we can't win one from 5th

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

Dogs won a flag from 7th, no reason that we can't win one from 5th

The reason is that the dogs is the exception to the rule.

My point is win both games and we have a very good chance of top four, especially if we beat port with a bit of a margin (6 or 7 goals would be good)

 

[caloschwaby]

The reason is that the dogs is the exception to the rule.

Perhaps we are another exception to the rule?

 

[domin8tors]

We'll win 2 and lose 5 players to season ending injuries.

Shaz, Eliott, Ried.. who's left.. 1 win down.

 

[domin8tors]

Two or three ways to finish top four. Both require us winning both games.

1. Hawthorn lose a game., One of those games is very loseable....v Sydney. Or Hawthorn win both but by 50 points less than we win by. If we manage to pass them on percentage at the Freo game it will make for an interesting live ladder in their game v Sydney that night!!!
2. GWS lose a game. Given they play the Swans and the Dees, dropping one of those games is not a stretch of the imagination.

If both happen we are third.

I think fourth is as good as certain if we win both games. And if we end up fifth....so be it, its still been a good year and a final or two can still be won.

interesting. we would likely now go in against port as Favourites with their injuries and of course against Freo. so purely based on this we win both. and if, if* both GWS and Hawks drop a game we end up 3rd. personally i'd rather end up 4th as I think we match up better against Richmond with their Small forward line then we do against WC up there and their Tall forward line.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

interesting. we would likely now go in against port as Favourites with their injuries and of course against Freo. so purely based on this we win both. and if, if* both GWS and Hawks drop a game we end up 3rd. personally i'd rather end up 4th as I think we match up better against Richmond with their Small forward line then we do against WC up there and their Tall forward line.

Agree it’s always better to not travel in finals. But on paper west coast away is an easier opponent than Richmond on a neutral venue.. although the romanticism of upsetting Richmond’s year by beating them in a qf is very appealing.

At the end of the day it will be what it is. We just need to win both games, hopefully with an improved percentage, and see if that leaves us third fourth fifth or sixth.

 

[Anzacday]

At the end of the day it will be what it is. We just need to win both games, hopefully with an improved percentage, and see if that leaves us third fourth fifth or sixth.

That's it in a nutshell.

 

[Darkyprotector]

Last game at domain

Sandilands fyffe knowing our luck pavlich comes back lol
Even Walters and maybe benell

They will be up and about

Need to win this week