The domination of Collingwood, Geelong, Hawthorn, West Coast and Sydney

theyellowsash

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That's certainly one way to look at it, but let's look at it from another angle that further supports the OP's findings...

For arguments sake, we have averaged 16 teams in the competition since 1990, meaning the par number of Grand Final appearances for each of those teams is 3.625 (2 of 16 teams make the Grand Final each year over a 29 year period).

Therefore, for any given group of five teams, the expectation is that those five teams between them will make a total of 18.125 Grand Final appearances over that 29 year period.

Between Geelong, Hawthorn, Collingwood, Sydney and West Coast, there have been a total of 32 Grand Finals, nearly 14 more than what is statistically expected.

So more than half of the Grand Finals won, more than half of all Grand Final appearances, it's pretty compelling that these teams are by far the biggest 5 of the AFL era.
a total of 32 grand final appearances out of a possible 58 is 55%. in other words, half of the grand final places have been taken up by a third of the clubs. Keeping in mind that some of these clubs have had deliberate advantages designed to make them successful (either immediately or long term), and it can be reasonably argued that when gc/gws were introduced the draft was compromised to a point that it made it easier to stay at the top (because it was harder for worse teams to improve). These teams have certainly been above average but life always varies from the average, and it hasnt been the domination that it sounds.
 

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Carringbush2010

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Those 5 clubs also won the most games this decade:
1. Geelong
2. Hawthorn
3. Sydney
4. Collingwood
5. West Coast

6th (Richmond) was a fair way behind.
That's interesting. Hard to fathom that Collingwood have missed 4 finals series and yet have a high number of wins. WC I believe have missed 2 also, the other 3 have been in finals every year if I'm correct to this point.
 

theyellowsash

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Just to make even more interesting I've added the Prelim finalists

Collingwood v Essendon (West Coast)
Hawthorn v West Coast (Geelong)
West Coast v Geelong (Footscray)
Carlton v Essendon (Adelaide)
West Coast v Geelong (North Melbourne, Melbourne)
Carlton v Geelong (North Melbourne, Richmond)
North Melbourne v Sydney (Brisbane, Essendon)
Adelaide v St.Kilda (North Melbourne, Bulldogs)
Adelaide v North Melbourne (
Melbourne, Bulldogs)
North Melbourne v Carlton (
Brisbane, Essendon)
Essendon v Melbourne (
Carlton, North Melbourne)
Essendon v Brisbane (Richmond, Hawthorn)
Brisbane v Collingwood (Port Adelaide, Adelaide)
Brisbane v Collingwood (Port Adelaide, Sydney)
Brisbane v Port Adelaide (Geelong, St. Kilda)
Sydney v West Coast (St. Kilda, Adelaide)
Sydney v West Coast (Fremantle, Adelaide)
Geelong v Port Adelaide (Collingwood, North Melbourne)
Geelong v Hawthorn (Bulldogs, St. Kilda)
Geelong v St.Kilda (Collingwood, Bulldogs)
St.Kilda v Collingwood (Bulldogs, Geelong)
Collingwood v Geelong (Hawthorn, West Coast)
Hawthorn v Sydney (Adelaide, Collingwood)
Hawthorn v Fremantle (Geelong, Sydney)
Hawthorn v Sydney (Port Adelaide, North Melbourne)
Hawthorn v West Coast (Fremantle, North Melbourne)
Bulldogs v Sydney (GWS Giants, Geelong)
Richmond v Adelaide (GWS Giants, Geelong)
West Coast v Collingwood (Melbourne, Richmond)

Bold are the only years one of these teams haven't made it to at least the penultimate round.
actually theres only a 18% chance of that happening in any 1 year in a 16 team competition, or 23% in an 18 team competition. For it to have happened 5/29 times is 17%, which is bang on the expected average at least for a 16 team competition.

What that says is that those 5 teams dont make it to the top 4 any more than expected, but are better at going on to win.
 

Roobs321

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That's interesting. Hard to fathom that Collingwood have missed 4 finals series and yet have a high number of wins. WC I believe have missed 2 also, the other 3 have been in finals every year if I'm correct to this point.
Geelong, Hawthorn and Sydney all missed just the once (but it wasn't a terrible season). West Coast's 2010 is the only real clunker season among the five, bringing them down a little, and Collingwood's 2011 22-3 enhances their record a little (and they were never terrible). If you think about it, the Magpies always entered finals in good positioning (1st, 1st, 4th, 6th, 3rd, 4th), so they weren't just scraping in.

See this thread for further details: 2010s club match record table
 

kid_a

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Dont mean to sound smug, but I was bringing this up months ago ;)
 

Fadge

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a total of 32 grand final appearances out of a possible 58 is 55%. in other words, half of the grand final places have been taken up by a third of the clubs. Keeping in mind that some of these clubs have had deliberate advantages designed to make them successful (either immediately or long term), and it can be reasonably argued that when gc/gws were introduced the draft was compromised to a point that it made it easier to stay at the top (because it was harder for worse teams to improve). These teams have certainly been above average but life always varies from the average, and it hasnt been the domination that it sounds.
5 from 16 teams is less than a third, and 55% is more than a half.

Nice of you to conveniently round up and down to suit your agenda.

Excuses are for losers (and for the mediocre teams that are excluded from this conversation).
 

theyellowsash

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actually theres only a 18% chance of that happening in any 1 year in a 16 team competition, or 23% in an 18 team competition. For it to have happened 5/29 times is 17%, which is bang on the expected average at least for a 16 team competition.

What that says is that those 5 teams dont make it to the top 4 any more than expected, but are better at going on to win.
to take my point further, in the 16 years the competition was a 16 team one, those 5 teams missed the prelims 4/16 times or 25%, well above the expected 18%. that lends some credence to the idea that the introduction of gc/gws allowed some clubs to stay at the top longer because it reduced other teams ability to improve
 

Back One Out

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The domination of Collingwood, Geelong, Hawthorn, West Coast and Sydney

Just thought I would share but believe it or not since 1990 there has only been 8 Grand Finals where one of these teams hasn’t featured in (only three since 2000).

Collingwood v Essendon
Hawthorn v West Coast
West Coast v Geelong
Carlton v Essendon
West Coast v Geelong
Carlton v Geelong
North Melbourne v Sydney
Adelaide v St.Kilda
Adelaide v North Melbourne
North Melbourne v Carlton
Essendon v Melbourne
Essendon v Brisbane

Brisbane v Collingwood
Brisbane v Collingwood
Brisbane v Port Adelaide
Sydney v West Coast
Sydney v West Coast
Geelong v Port Adelaide
Geelong v Hawthorn
Geelong v St.Kilda
St.Kilda v Collingwood
Collingwood v Geelong
Hawthorn v Sydney
Hawthorn v Fremantle
Hawthorn v Sydney
Hawthorn v West Coast
Bulldogs v Sydney
Richmond v Adelaide
West Coast v Collingwood
Why stop at 1990? The "domination" you speak of goes back to the mid 1970's

14 of the next 15 Grand Finals featured one of the teams in the thread title.

1975 North Melb v Hawthorn
1976 Hawthorn v North Melb
1977 North Melb v Collingwood
1978 Hawthorn v North Melb
1979 Carlton v Collingwood
1980 Richmond v Collingwood
1981 Carlton v Collingwood
1982 Carlton v Richmond
1983 Hawthorn v Essendon
1984 Essendon v Hawthorn
1985 Essendon v Hawthorn
1986 Hawthorn v Carlton
1987 Carlton v Hawthorn
1988 Hawthorn v Melbourne
1989 Hawthorn v Geelong


FWIW, 1990 was only a change of name & logo from the VFL to AFL. Literally NOTHING else changed that particular season in what was a decade of upheaval. The old 12 team VFL expanded to a 14 team national competition in 1987. That's also when the National Draft was first held and when the saturation live TV coverage began. It's funny to me that people see the name change as the starting point of the new era and not 1987 when the really big changes were made.

The logo change in 1990 was a mere blip on the football public's consciousness. The next big change after 1987 was the introduction of the Adelaide Crows in 1991 (also when the Eagles dominated the comp and became the first non-Vic team to finish on top of the ladder and reach the Grand Final)
 
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Carringbush2010

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Why stop at 1990? The "domination" you speak of goes back to the mid 1970's

14 of the next 15 Grand Finals featured one of the teams in the thread title.

1975 North Melb v Hawthorn
1976 Hawthorn v North Melb
1977 North Melb v Collingwood
1978 Hawthorn v North Melb
1979 Carlton v Collingwood
1980 Richmond v Collingwood
1981 Carlton v Collingwood
1982 Carlton v Richmond
1983 Hawthorn v Essendon
1984 Essendon v Hawthorn
1985 Essendon v Hawthorn
1986 Hawthorn v Carlton
1987 Carlton v Hawthorn
1988 Hawthorn v Melbourne
1989 Hawthorn v Geelong


FWIW, 1990 was only a change of name & logo from the VFL to AFL. Literally NOTHING else changed that particular season in what was a decade of upheaval. The old 12 team VFL expanded to a 14 team national competition in 1987. That's also when the National Draft was first held and when the saturation live TV coverage began. It's funny to me that people see the name change as the starting point of the new era and not 1987 when the really big changes were made.

The logo change in 1990 was a mere blip on the football public's consciousness. The next big change after 1987 was the introduction of the Adelaide Crows in 1991 (also when the Eagles dominated the comp and became the first non-Vic team to finish on top of the ladder and reach the Grand Final)
Why stop at the 70's, why not go back to the start?

I mentioned earlier there is another thread that takes all the metrics of all the teams that have been in it and it averages out each teams success factoring all things that one might consider a measure of "success" over the time they've been in the comp.

I'll link it if I can find it.
 

Scotland

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The 70s and 80s aren't really relevant to the 90s and later, national comp or not.

In a 12 team comp from 1975-1986 4 teams didn't make the GF. St Kilda didn't make the finals at all, Footscray twice, South Melbourne/Sydney twice, Fitzroy 5 times. The mechanism if you were no good was to find a rich benefactor and buy players from the WAFL/SANFL or hope/lobby for a strong zone.

GF appearances:

Hawthorn 7
Carlton 4
Collingwood 4
Essendon 3
North 3
Richmond 2
Geelong 1
Melbourne 1

There is nothing particularly anomalous about the above. North won nothing for decades then signed 3 stars under 10 year rule, then proceeded to bring in Blight, Melrose, Barry Cable etc. People talk about the effect of free agency now but can you imagine Hawthorn in the middle of their 2010s run bringing in Buckenara, Judge, Lester-Smith, Malaxos (briefly) and Platten in their 20s? Nightmareish stuff. Carlton brought in Bosustow, Ken Hunter, Warren Ralph, Dorotich, Kernahan etc. Was a different era with two parallel talent pools running and a free for all on who you could bring in. It wasn't sustainable financially and I can imagine it wasn't much fun if you supported St Kilda, not that it ever would be.

The current setup is designed to make the comp more even. It's harder to bring in stars and for the most part the only players you bring in from outside the AFL system are kids and your access to them is determined by ladder position. Without a salary cap and restricted player movement in place the draft would be pretty pointless. If Hawthorn, Sydney, Geelong are back winning flags before Carlton, St Kilda etc. then it's a headache for the AFL because that's not what they want. But you can't pull the strings on everything, it's still a competitive sport.
 

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Papa G

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Those 5 clubs also won the most games this decade:
1. Geelong
2. Hawthorn
3. Sydney
4. Collingwood
5. West Coast

6th (Richmond) was a fair way behind.
Not the only reasons but here are some contributing factors to success.

Those 5 clubs also won the most games this decade:
1. Geelong. Father/Son selections, Free Govt money to develop own stadium huge money spinner
2. Hawthorn Couple of Priority picks set them up, Great Coach, wealth on the back of Pokies/Tasmania
3. Sydney. COLA
4. Collingwood. Get looked after by the AFL/Broadcasters like no other. Wealthy.
5. West Coast. Biggest club in the land. Wealthiest club in the land. Want for nothing.
 

Fadge

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Not the only reasons but here are some contributing factors to success.

Those 5 clubs also won the most games this decade:
1. Geelong. Father/Son selections, Free Govt money to develop own stadium huge money spinner
2. Hawthorn Couple of Priority picks set them up, Great Coach, wealth on the back of Pokies/Tasmania
3. Sydney. COLA
4. Collingwood. Get looked after by the AFL/Broadcasters like no other. Wealthy.
5. West Coast. Biggest club in the land. Wealthiest club in the land. Want for nothing.
So what you're saying is success breeds success?
 

mcgarnacle

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a total of 32 grand final appearances out of a possible 58 is 55%. in other words, half of the grand final places have been taken up by a third of the clubs. Keeping in mind that some of these clubs have had deliberate advantages designed to make them successful (either immediately or long term), and it can be reasonably argued that when gc/gws were introduced the draft was compromised to a point that it made it easier to stay at the top (because it was harder for worse teams to improve). These teams have certainly been above average but life always varies from the average, and it hasnt been the domination that it sounds.
there was an era when CAR/COL/RIC/NM/HAW dominated GFs. swings and roundabouts.

you want to hear of dominance, then look at NRL. Melbourne and/or Sydney have featured in 15 GFs since 1999. Add Brisbane, North Queensland, and Manly, then you have every GF for last 20 years covered by 5 clubs
 

sprockets

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The domination of Collingwood, Geelong, Hawthorn, West Coast and Sydney

Just thought I would share but believe it or not since 1990 there has only been 8 Grand Finals where one of these teams hasn’t featured in (only three since 2000).

Collingwood v Essendon
Hawthorn v West Coast
West Coast v Geelong
Carlton v Essendon
West Coast v Geelong
Carlton v Geelong
North Melbourne v Sydney
Adelaide v St.Kilda
Adelaide v North Melbourne
North Melbourne v Carlton
Essendon v Melbourne
Essendon v Brisbane

Brisbane v Collingwood
Brisbane v Collingwood
Brisbane v Port Adelaide
Sydney v West Coast
Sydney v West Coast
Geelong v Port Adelaide
Geelong v Hawthorn
Geelong v St.Kilda
St.Kilda v Collingwood
Collingwood v Geelong
Hawthorn v Sydney
Hawthorn v Fremantle
Hawthorn v Sydney
Hawthorn v West Coast
Bulldogs v Sydney
Richmond v Adelaide
West Coast v Collingwood

Within that they have played each other in a Grand Final on 12 occasions and won 16 Grand Finals out of a possible 29 (more than half)

With three of the teams Geelong, Collingwood and West Coast featuring in the top 5 this year it’s likely that one of them will be in the Grand Final again and perhaps win it.

West Coast, Geelong and Sydney have hardly missed the finals since 2000. These 5 clubs hold the records in the AFL era for most either Grand Final wins, most Grand Final appearances, most top 4 and 8 appearances, and Geelong have never finished in the bottom 4.

Does this prove an in balance within or are these clubs just great at recruiting the right players and building their clubs back up quicker than the other teams?
That's not a domination. I raise you the previous 30 years to 1990 where just 4 teams, Carlton, Richmond, Collingwood and Hawthorn, featured in every grand final bar one.
 
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Carringbush2010

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That's not a domination. I raise you the previous 30 years to that where just 4 teams, Carlton, Richmond, Collingwood and Hawthorn, featured in every grand final bar one.
Essendon, North, Saints, Dees, Cats, Dogs all played in gf's in the 30 years prior to 1990.
 

sprockets

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Essendon, North, Saints, Dees, Cats, Dogs all played in gf's in the 30 years prior to 1990.
Yes but check the OP, which is telling us those 5 teams played in the grand finals but not only those teams played.

PS. I actually meant the 30 years previous to 1990 in my post above and have amended it.
 

saints_333

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That's not a domination. I raise you the previous 30 years to 1990 where just 4 teams, Carlton, Richmond, Collingwood and Hawthorn, featured in every grand final bar one.
The VFL doesn't count in this argument as you could also make a case for all the other state leagues around the country. You could argue though that the domination hasn't stopped and the AFL has the same issues the state leagues did before. There's no perfect system of course.
 

Duskfire

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It’s like any job really. If the management and administrators in place are stable and good at their job, that trickles down. With all those clubs, barely hear anything bad about their board, they all run a tight ship, coaching tends to be well supported, etc etc.
 

DopeMaster

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Still to even get there shows you've been successful. Collingwood, for some reason, do tend to lose a lot more grand finals than most.
We like to lull the other clubs into a false sense of security by losing a bunch of grand finals, then when everyone is least suspecting it we go BANG and win a prelim.
 
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