Opinion The Dons 8 Chances Broken Down

[BomberFan355]

After the game tonight I went to the post game event where Zaha, Kav and Hamilton answered questions.
Zaka said he really wanted to be back for North, but was told he should wait another week.
He sounded confident he would be back for Carlton.

He didn't sound that confident when interviewed on radio, said he hadn't even started running at full speed yet. I hope you are right though.

 

[BomberFan355]

Howlett and Winderlich would be 2-3 week injuries.
Expect Fletch, Crameri, Monfries, Hibberd, Stanton + more back next week.

Ryder?

 

[daz17]

Ryder?

Didn't mention him.

 

[LETSGOKANGAS]

Just a heads up, North V GWS last round not Gold Coast.

 

[bomberswarm2]

Just a heads up, North V GWS last round not Gold Coast.

Even Worse. No wait...

 

[Mercurial89]

Maybe gws can pull something out of the bag, one last favour from sheeds

 

[bomberswarm2]

Ryder?

They've been saying for a while he'd be back week after Hurley. Who came back last night...

 

[LETSGOKANGAS]

Maybe gws can pull something out of the bag, one last favour from sheeds

Nothing is impossible, this is AFL after all.

 

[MadBomberman]

If it came down to beating Collingwood to make the finals and if we don't beat them, then there is no point of making it anyways.

I am most worried about Richmond out of the 4 I must admit.They will never let us win easy and will do anything they can to end our season.

Tbh, North is the must win game. Its essentially an 8 point game that we must win and looking at the ins that are likely for that game, I believe we can beat them.

Winning that can give us a bit of confidence heading to Carlton, although those b****es will probably pull something out of the hat.

So must win against North in order to have that extra game in hand in case Carlton and Richmond pull something out of nothing. Season on the line and we end it with 3 rivals in a row at the G...

 

[Kaiser Powser]

Round 23. Finals start a week early for Essendon.

We beat Collingwood we make finals.

We lose, well there is little point being there in the first place.

Hopefully we win all 4, get a full list back and all of a sudden trips to Adelaide and Perth don't seem so impossible

 

[Mercurial89]

Nothing is impossible, you know nothing about footy after all.

Where on earth did I say it was impossible? What's your problem mate?

 

[vaughany]

Good write up. Hopefully Pav and McFarlane get two week suspensions so they are out for their games against Adel and Rich. We need the cellar dwellers in later rounds to help us out and cause some upsets!!

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Goes without saying but this week is the big one. If we can continue our form from yesterday and get over North, it’ll be a big shot of confidence. With players coming back as well I think we’ll then be able to get over Richmond and Carlton, whose seasons are over.

I really think if we win this week, we’ll make it. Lose and we’ll be shot re confidence and facing a couple of crunch games against rivals who will want to take a piece out of us.

 

[daffo]

I think we can beat North and Richmond. It all depends on our bloody stupid injury list. I want to punch someone out (most likely BT or the weapon).

 

[Essendonia]

After the loss to the Crows, we are in big trouble. I have broken down what we have to-do from here to make the 8.

The Run Home:
Round 20 - North Melbourne
Round 21 - Carlton
Round 22 - Richmond
Round 23 - Collingwood

Some Situations:
Win 4 Lose 0 - We are in the 8, maybe 7th or even 6th
Win 3 Lose 1 - We are in the 8
Win 2 Loose 2 - Hinges on margins and other results
Win 1 Loose 3 - Requires Draws and other extraordinary circumstances
Win 0 Loose 4 - Not a hope, look to 2013

Most Likely Scenario:
Round 20 - North Melbourne (Loss)
No severe need to win this game, but if North Win it they are practically in the 8. They have an easier draw, and this is going to be a tough game. Must not loose this game by more than 12-18 points.
Round 21 - Carlton (Win)
Must win game, no matter what happens in round 20. We loose this and we are practically gone. Carlton's season is next to over, and if we loose this our season will be like theirs. Howver, no use in winning this game by 1 point. We must thrash the Blues.
Winning Margin:
1-10 = Were in big trouble
11-30 = Need a big game next week
31-60 = Eases the pressure, still need big win next week
61-90 = Even though this is unlikely, we would still need a sizable win against Richmond.
91+ = Beat Richmond, by 20+, and we'll have a huge chance
Round 22 - Richmond (Win)
Tigers would like nothing more than to kick us out of the September race, and a loss here means we would need to cream the Pies into a soup the next week for any chance of September glory.
Aggregate Winning Margin of above 3 games:
Negitave number - 60: Bye Bye Finals
61 - 100 = If we bet North, we're in (barring a thrashing from the pies). If we didn't, support Melbourne next week.
101 - 160 = Hanging on a knife's edge, once again comes down to Melbourne.
Once Saturday comes around however, there is a more important match if we win. North Melbourne vs Fremantle. This match may decide our season.
Possibilities:
North Win: It all comes down to %agE
Fremantle Win: We need 3 wins from the final 4 games.
Draw: We need 3 wins from the final 4 games, or else they'll both get in by 2 points and we'll have a higher %age than Freo.
Best Result there is North Win. ONE EXCEPTION! If we beat North in round 20, and beat Richmond and Carlton, then if Freo wins we'll be in the finals.
Round 23 - Collingwood (Loss)
Its the biggest, baddest round of them all.
We can't have:

• Lost more than 1 game until here

• Been thrashed by any of the above clubs

• Not have an aggregate winning margin of at least 120 points

Now, we can loose to the Pies, but we cannot get thrashed by them. Other matches this round:

- Gold Coast vs North Melbourne
- Fremantle vs Melbourne
If everything above has gone to plan, Freo and North need to win by 100+ to take a spot. Looking at the opponents, should be no problem.
As you can see, massive problems. The better GC and Melbourne do, the better off we are.
Probably can't loose by more than about 3 goals. A win however, seals our spot.
If We Make the 8:
No real point in making the 8 really, other than just to make up the numbers. Depending on results, we'll play either:
- Hawthorn
- Collingwood
- Geelong
- West Coast at Subi
And it dossn't look too good.
What I think will happen:
Our season relies on us winning at least 2 out of 4, winning those by at least a combined 140 points, and not loosing by more than 5 goals total. Even if we somhow manage to get into the 8, we will probably be creamed up by our first round opponent, and if we make it through we play one of the 4 in the above list, plus through the Swans and the Crows into the mix. All that away, mind you.

Prediction:
Essendon will slip out of the 8. I always had us down for the flag in 2013 anyway.

Stray Points:
- A Draw is as good as a loss, except against North



Your Thoughts?

Sorry, mate. I haven't been able to get past your first match assessment - 'no severe need to win against NM'.

If anything, I would go hell-for-leather in this match. If we grab points here, the next two matches will just be momentum-builders to have a crack at the pies.

A loss to north (who are in good form) would probably lead to a demoralisation of the playing group and capitulation to carlton and then richmond - who both owe us in 2012 and will be ready to spanner our season.

We had our good draw early, and we capitalised, but since June, we have been less-than-impressive in dealing with the tougher draw.

Must-win North.

Also, have done ladder predictor, and 6th is not beyond the realm of likely/feasible outcomes.

 

[Essendonia]

If it came down to beating Collingwood to make the finals and if we don't beat them, then there is no point of making it anyways.

I am most worried about Richmond out of the 4 I must admit.They will never let us win easy and will do anything they can to end our season.

Tbh, North is the must win game. Its essentially an 8 point game that we must win and looking at the ins that are likely for that game, I believe we can beat them.

Winning that can give us a bit of confidence heading to Carlton, although those b****es will probably pull something out of the hat.

So must win against North in order to have that extra game in hand in case Carlton and Richmond pull something out of nothing. Season on the line and we end it with 3 rivals in a row at the G...

The way football should be.

As you said, if we can't do it, then we're simply not good enough this year.

 

[Pweter]

If we come to play every game the way we did yesterday and those coming in to the team (Ryder, Crameri etc) are not replaced on the injury list just as quickly, then there is no doubt we make finals.

It comes down to attitude, the talent is there.

 

[mxett]

Had pears taken what seemed a pretty easy mark with under 20 seconds to go at the end of the game against the Crows today things might be very different. (Nothing against Pears - just sayin!)

Another angle on that mark after the game showed the ball was actually spoilt by a defenders fist and never really hit his chest

 

[LETSGOKANGAS]

Where on earth did I say it was impossible? What's your problem mate?

GWS to beat North last round...just saying anything is possible.

 

[Doss]

Nothing is impossible, you know nothing about footy after all.

And let me guess, you're some kind of expert?

Amazing, yet another North poster getting himself lost on our board.

 

[dnbassador]

Great players coming back from injury but how many weeks will it take to hit form again thats the real problem

 

[LETSGOKANGAS]

And let me guess, you're some kind of expert?

Amazing, yet another North poster getting himself lost on our board.

I simply stated that the OP made an error in his fixturing and that GWS may beat us last round.

If you guys dont want other teams posting in your threads bloody lock em out. Ban me as well please mods from the dons boards. Simply not worth trying to have a decent conversation with some of these simpletons.

 

[Kong]

Ban me as well please mods from the dons boards. Simply not worth trying to have a decent conversation with some of these simpletons.

No probs.

 

[Doss]

I simply stated that the OP made an error in his fixturing and that GWS may beat us last round.

If you guys dont want other teams posting in your threads bloody lock em out. Ban me as well please mods from the dons boards. Simply not worth trying to have a decent conversation with some of these simpletons.

I have no problems with supporters from other clubs posting here, but telling someone they know nothing about footy, without provocation, is kind of unnecessary.

I still think we're a decent chance to make it, btw. This game against North really is an '8-point game'. I watched Carlton play the Swans yesterday, they threw everything at them and the Swans appeared to be cruising, and never once really looked like being troubled. I reckon at the very least we'll beat Carlton and Richmond, and if we bring the effort we did yesterday, we're a good show to beat North too.

 

[fishardansin]

I just did the ladder predictor:

Essendon will beat North, Carlton and Richmond. The momentum will build and injuries will cease to occur. Collingwood are begining to splutter and we'll run over the top of them.

Essendon will then play West Coast at MCG for elimination final. Easy kill.

Then we'll have Adelaide, over there, after Hawthorn knock them off in week one. After yesterday's game and with the players we'll have back I'm confident about that game.

Then we'll have Sydney in Sydney and we've traditionally fared well up there. Win!

Grandfinal!! Geelong will beat Hawthorn in other prelim but that crazy bash and crash game that will have got them over the line against Hawthorn, and Collingwood the week prior, wont be able to be sustained for a third week and Essendon will run away from them in the last half delivering Hird, Thompson and the Weapon a flag 2 years earlier than planned.

Get around me.