Politics The East West Link toll road

[Wonaeamirri33]

Basically, from what I can see, this is an extremely high-cost project, which doesn't have sufficient public demand for it, hence is likely to be relatively unused, and is likely to end up with a similar outcome to the financial disasters that unfolded with the equally costly, ill-fated and foolhardy "Clem 7" and airport toll road projects built here in Brisbane.

Both the private companies initially contracted to build and operate those two roads went bust some time ago, since, as predicted by so many before their construction, those roads turned out just as unprofitable as the East/West tunnel is likely to be (Clem 7 operator placed in receivership, Operator of Brisbane Airport Link Tunnel in receivership).

Substantial damage is set to be done to Victoria's public finances as a result, with deeply negative consequences both for public transport, and public services and infrastructure in general across the board otherwise.

Aside from anyone who lives in the projected path of this road, of course, with their houses to be compulsorily acquired, and damage done to property values for others near the project.

And most commentators and experts agree a rail link would be a far more useful and effective option, and far less costly. General public opinion seems to strongly concur.

 

[Wonaeamirri33]

Here's some more detailed information about the issue:

Why tunnel vision will cost all Victorians, big time

June 24, 2013
Kenneth Davidson
The Age

The cost of the East-West road tunnel is huge, greater than any previous Victorian project by far and even many national projects. It will cripple the state's fiscal position for many years through massive payments to the public-private partnership consortium that will finance it.

The financial burden on the Victorian taxpayer will be so big that it will ''crowd out'' the state's core responsibilities for funding schools, hospitals, rail transport and even other roads for at least a generation.

And yet the Coalition state government has never completed a business case that would justify the project. It inherited a negative cost/benefit study from the Eddington committee of inquiry established by the previous Labor government. Eddington showed that for every dollar invested in the project, Victoria would be lucky to get a return of 50¢.

A back-of-the-envelope calculation shows why. City Link cost $1.8 billion to construct. The end-to-end toll on City Link costs $7.65. To get a similar return for private investors on the $8 billion first stage of the east-west tunnel (from Hoddle Street to City Link) would require a $30 toll.

Even if it was financed by government debt paying 4.5 per cent interest, the toll would have to be more than $20 to cover interest and capital repayments - and that is after allowing for Abbott's $1.5 billion gift.

Worse, both these estimates only add up if it is assumed that traffic volumes are as high as 80,000 vehicles a day - that is, maximum capacity for 10 hours a day. This is unlikely even if the toll was $3, given that the time saving from using the tunnel would only be 10 minutes, most of which would be lost at the Royal Park spaghetti junction as traffic backed up and faced additional congestion moving south into the CBD or north going to the airport.

No wonder the owners of the airport are now keen for a railway link, even though they make a fortune out of airport parking.

It is no surprise that the full cost of the east-west project ($15 billion to $17 billion), involving the planned connection to the Western Ring Road, is hardly mentioned. Nor the cost of rail alternatives.

The state government pretends that the federal government or the private sector will pay for this road. In fact, Victorians will pay, big time.

http://www.theage.com.au/comment/wh...ns-big-time-20130623-2oq8h.html#ixzz2hcVHmTuH

Senate has power to see secret plan

September 5, 2013
Josh Gordon
The Age

The state government has released what it called a short-form business case, asserting the road will generate $1.40 of benefits for every $1 investment.

The assumptions behind the claim have not be released, although it is believed the analysis does not comply with Infrastructure Australia's usual system.

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-polit...secret-plan-20130904-2t5m6.html#ixzz2hcVgoKUM

Voters prefer Metro rail link to be built before east-west tunnel

August 24, 2013
Matt Johnson, Phillip Hudson
Herald Sun

Voters in Victoria's vital marginal seats overwhelmingly want the Metro rail link to be built before the east-west road tunnel.

An exclusive Galaxy Poll for the Herald Sun reveals the $9 billion public transport project is rated as the top transport priority by 63 per cent of voters in Chisholm and La Trobe.

Only a quarter of those surveyed backed the east-west road, intended to ease traffic congestion for those driving to the CBD from eastern and southeastern suburbs.

In Corangamite, which is at least 70km away from the proposed Metro site between North Melbourne and St Kilda, 53 per cent of voters still backed it, compared with 22 per cent for the road.

http://www.news.com.au/national-new...-eastwest-tunnel/story-fnho52ip-1226703150650

 

[Wonaeamirri33]

Toll Roads And Other Mumbo Jumbo
By Elliot Fishman

The Victorian Government’s dedication to the $15 billion first stage of the East-West toll road has transport planners scratching their heads. They have refused to release a business case for the project, a sure sign that shoddy forecasting forms the foundation of what promises to be the greatest misallocation of transport funds in Melbourne’s history.

Australian Bureau of Statistics census data for 2011 show Melburnians are shifting to public transport in record numbers, car use is beginning to stagnate and in some areas decline.

Sir Rod Eddington produced a comprehensive technical evaluation of east west transport needs in Melbourne. Economic modelling performed for his report by Meyrick and Associates found the project would deliver a cost-benefit ratio of 0.7, meaning that for every $1 invested, only 70c is returned in economic gain. The government has hashed together a new figure of $1.40, without releasing any of the assumptions underlying the new calculation.

Moreover, the Eddington Report found only a small fraction of the cars banked up on the Eastern Freeway are actually headed to the western region of Melbourne!

Job creation appears to be a key motive for the project. The government frequently touts the 3200 jobs they expect to be created by the project, as though the East-West toll road would be somehow unique in its ability to create jobs.

The fact is any transport project costing as much as the East-West toll road creates about 3200 jobs.

We could say the same about the construction of rail projects. Given that Melbourne has not had a significant addition to its rail network since the 1930s, when its population was a little under a million (it’s now 4 million), this, not toll roads should be the government’s focus.

The Victorian taxpayer wears all the risk. Should toll revenue not be as high as forecast, Victorians will be left to foot the bill, helping to prop up the private operator and their shareholders. This should have the taxpayer worried, given that Australian toll roads in recent history have consistently reported significantly weaker traffic volumes than forecast. The issue has become so contentious that some international transport consultancies refuse to undertake such forecasts, for fear of legal action against it should be prove inaccurate.

No genuine public consultation has taken place. This is largely because the people that will have to live with the compulsory land acquisitions, years of construction disruption, overpasses, and exits flooding traffic onto local streets typically don’t vote Liberal. Clifton Hill, Collingwood, Carlton and Flemington residents typically vote Labor or Green. The Victorian Government has little regard for the determined community effort Melbourne residents in the inner north have mounted to try and protect their suburbs.

Petrol prices have hit highs not seen since 2008, when a barrel of crude cost $US148. Despite the weak global economic outlook, global oil prices at hovering above $US100 and Australians are set to experience more pain at the pump, exacerbated by the lower Australian dollar relative to the greenback.

CSIRO forecast that petrol could cost anywhere between $2 to $8 per litre by 2018, one year before the east west toll road would be expected to be complete.

https://newmatilda.com/2013/10/03/toll-roads-and-other-mumbo-jumbo

Tunnel RATs looking at a legal challenge

October 8, 2013
Henrietta Cook
The Age

A former Federal Court judge is investigating possible legal action against the Napthine government over concerns it has provided misleading information on the east-west link tunnel.

Ron Merkel, QC, and law firm Maurice Blackburn are considering whether the state government has engaged in misleading and deceptive conduct in relation to its secretive business case for the $6 billion to $8 billion road project.

They are working on a pro bono basis with local group Residents Against the Tunnel (RATs).

It is understood the legal team could argue the Coalition has breached national competition laws by presenting a business case that is fundamentally flawed and misleading.

There are concerns the business case is not based on reasonable grounds and the traffic modelling does not stack up.

http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/t...l-challenge-20131007-2v4cz.html#ixzz2hcZY0lGs

stretcharmstrong, Captain Jack, JackAttack7, Andy_Mac, Deefolt

 

[Captain Jack]

As I mentioned last night, this project really gets me annoyed.

To start I should mention that I live close enough to the city (in the Eastern suburbs) that I wouldn't have much use for the tunnel unless I was going to the airport. Even so, that trip only takes half an hour including Alexandra Pde traffic unless it's peak hour.

Also, I'm no transport expert but I reckon there's a fair amount of common sense that can be broadly applied to these things, even if I don't know the minutiae of it.

So many issues with this tunnel.

Firstly, how many people come off the Eastern and go all the way through to the Tulla? There will be no city exits (if there were it would be a disaster for congestion in Fitzroy, Carlton, Parkville) so it's inherently limited to those going across the city and not into it. But of course the information about this is 'commercially sensitive' so the government doesn't have to show us the rubbish assumptions they've made to justify this white elephant.

Secondly, the amount of trouble during construction (could be up to 10 years) will be farcical and make traffic even worse at the Hoddle St exit of the Eastern, and probably around Flemington Rd too.

Thirdly, it's just such a backwards move to build more freeways. I hate how beholden the state government seems to be to the Roads lobby at the expense of public transport infrastructure. Long term, it won't matter how many freeways we have because there will be so many cars moving towards the CBD (if we keep encouraging car use by building freeways) that building a new road will only move the congestion somewhere else. The long term, sustainable, cheaper, more sensible solution is to have high-class railways across the city with park-and-ride systems, reliability, high frequency and rapid mass transport into the city.

There would be plenty more problems but I don't have time to rant about them all.

The handling of the whole project by the Napthine government reeks of poor process, bad management, secrecy, possibly verging on corruption at times (probably not that far though). It seems to be that, by pushing this project through just before next year's election, Napthine is (along with Guy, the Planning Minister) trying to stamp his authority on Victoria with a signature project, and bugger the consequences. If it gets off the ground it will all be about Napthine's vision for the future and other such crap, with a big shiny plaque as proof. A similar situation to the Desalination plant in many respects - it would have been far more prudent, cheaper and sensible to build a water recycling system to feed the Latrobe Valley power stations and wean them off Thompson Dam drinking water, but it's harder to cut the ribbon on a big ugly pipeline than a shiny, high-tech plant. White elephants galore.

No doubt I will think of more stuff later.

 

[wowlace]

There should have been a train line put in when the airport was built. You don't have to be Nostradamus to know that would be a good idea.

 

[wowlace]

We need a myki thread too. That'll be a doozy.

 

[LBJ6]

Live in Essendon and work in Kew. Will cut heaps of time off my commute, if built.

All for it.

 

[Captain Jack]

Live in Essendon and work in Kew. Will cut heaps of time off my commute, if built.

All for it.

Fair enough, what about putting up with the construction work for 6-8 years though? Will make Alexandra Pde even more of a carpark I imagine.

 

[Captain Jack]

There should have been a train line put in when the airport was built. You don't have to be Nostradamus to know that would be a good idea.

Surely it still wouldn't be that hard, even today. Just an offshoot from the Broady line (?), there would have to be enough space there for it. Again, problem is the owners of the airport and the existing transport methods getting to it make too much profit from the status quo to ever be in favour of it.

 

[wowlace]

Surely it still wouldn't be that hard, even today. Just an offshoot from the Broady line (?), there would have to be enough space there for it. Again, problem is the owners of the airport and the existing transport methods getting to it make too much profit from the status quo to ever be in favour of it.

I'm sure if it got done they would find a way to make money. Airport tax added to the train fare or something.

It's so good in Brissy and Sydney just jumping on the train to and from the airport. Son of a bitch here, have to beg someone to drop you off and pick up.

 

[Wonaeamirri33]

Secondly, the amount of trouble during construction (could be up to 10 years) will be farcical and make traffic even worse at the Hoddle St exit of the Eastern, and probably around Flemington Rd too.

This is absolutely spot-on also

"More than 80 per cent of the 135,000 vehicles a day on the Eastern Freeway still seek to exit at Hoddle Street and other inner roads to reach their inner-city destinations," Cr Fristacky said.

"The East West link will not help them. It will actually make congestion on Hoddle St worse because it will get more cars on that road faster.

"It will ultimately cause major social, health and environmental damage."

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/leader/...n-east-west-link/story-fngnvlpt-1226651965781

I hate how beholden the state government seems to be to the Roads lobby at the expense of public transport infrastructure. Long term, it won't matter how many freeways we have because there will be so many cars moving towards the CBD (if we keep encouraging car use by building freeways) that building a new road will only move the congestion somewhere else.

Just like the Newman LNP government up here mate.

Cutting education and health funding, taking money away from public transport and cutting public services across the board otherwise, destroying programs to tackle carbon emissions and letting our infrastructure deteriorate, while throwing public money away on unproductive election bribes, party-political advertising and useless "look at me" projects that do nothing for anyone - except the people who build them, who presumably make out like bandits.

We've seen this over and over again in Queensland, both with the Brisbane City Council and especially since the last State election here.

Aside from the same pattern always being obvious under previous Liberal/National governments at State level, and particularly during the Howard years.

Then whenever they're in Opposition, they run around shrieking about "waste".

 

[Wonaeamirri33]

Live in Essendon and work in Kew. Will cut heaps of time off my commute, if built.

About 10 minutes, to be exact.

This is really what we're talking about. A small number of people saving 10 mins over the course of that journey - often offset by traffic problems being greatly worsened otherwise.

This is what the Napthine government, in conjunction with Abbott at Federal level, are wanting to spend $17 billion on.

Honestly, I find it just extraordinary.

Again, problem is the owners of the airport and the existing transport methods getting to it make too much profit from the status quo to ever be in favour of it.

In point of fact, even the owners of the airport have said they want a rail link and not this toll road.

I included that in the first article from the Age I posted further up.

The handling of the whole project by the Napthine government reeks of poor process, bad management, secrecy, possibly verging on corruption at times (probably not that far though).

On the topic of corruption, I wouldn't be at all surprised if the company who win the tender for this project turn out to be a major Liberal Party "donor".

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_donations_in_Australia#Corporate_political_donations

Follow the money.

 

[LBJ6]

About 10 minutes, to be exact.

This is really what we're talking about. A small number of people saving 10 mins over the course of that journey - often offset by traffic problems being greatly worsened otherwise.

10 minutes? If it flowed reasonably well, like Citylink in peak hour, then it would save me over 30-40 minutes (in peak).

 

[Wonaeamirri33]

10 minutes? If it flowed reasonably well, like Citylink in peak hour, then it would save me over 30-40 minutes (in peak).

Going by that first Age article anyway. Unless that was referring particularly to the stage between Hoddle St and City Link, it may have been.

Assuming it was, worth restating that the report in question also points out most of this 10 minutes would be lost again due to congestion at the Royal Park junction.

 

[wowlace]

Generally I am against anything when people will have their homes forcible sold at below market value.

I think they want to put a freeway through my area too.

 

[Andy_Mac]

Guys it’s not so much the project, it’s the knockdown effect it has on jobs and stimulation to the broader economy that these large scale public infrastructure works create that is important. Think of all of the capital investment required to build such a tunnel.

Overall the plan (taking in the full link to dockland and out to the Western Ring Rd.) also has great long term strategic advantages too. Companies looking to enter the Australian market will be more inclined to choose Melbourne over Sydney on the back of superior freight links.

 

[Andy_Mac]

Generally I am against anything when people will have their homes forcible sold at below market value.

I think they want to put a freeway through my area too.

Are they really below market rate? Do you know that they also get relocated for free, dont pay stamp duty on thier new place etc etc.

 

[Wonaeamirri33]

Guys it’s not so much the project, it’s the knockdown effect it has on jobs and stimulation to the broader economy that these large scale public infrastructure works create that is important. Think of all of the capital investment required to build such a tunnel.

Yes, but that goes back to the other point - any project that cost as much as this one would end up employing at least that number of people and having a similar economic stimulus effect. It's a question of priorities, and consistency for that matter.

Reminds me of the BER - the various projects organised as part of that plan certainly had a substantial impact on jobs and provided substantial economic stimulus.

The BER being the source of so many complaints from the Coalition, on the unsubstantiated premise that such projects were somehow "wasteful".

Ditto for the overall upgrade of Australia's communications infrastructure through the NBN, now in the process of being derailed because it too was somehow "wasteful" expenditure.

Overall the plan (taking in the full link to dockland and out to the Western Ring Rd.) also has great long term strategic advantages too. Companies looking to enter the Australian market will be more inclined to choose Melbourne over Sydney on the back of superior freight links.

Even the owners of the airport are of the opinion a rail link would have greater strategic advantage, and greater overall benefit.

 

[Hellbourne]

Surely it still wouldn't be that hard, even today. Just an offshoot from the Broady line (?), there would have to be enough space there for it. Again, problem is the owners of the airport and the existing transport methods getting to it make too much profit from the status quo to ever be in favour of it.

The plan for the airport link for rail was between at Albion Station (Sunbury/Sydenham Line), following the existing freight rail corridor that runs up to Jacana but branches off beforehand.

My 2 cents on this project is that it isn't enough for solving current and minimising future congestion around the city. Any freeway link that can route traffic East/West (like the Burnley/Domain tunnels) without clogging the CBD and inner city suburbs is a good thing.

My issue is that the Melbourne Metro plan, the rail link to the airport, the upgrade of Flinders St Station and the removal of all level crossings within the greater metro area should be being implemented also.

Obviously this will require massive amounts of funding but I'd rather this than a gridlocked mess.

 

[stretcharmstrong]

Interesting discussion guys. I also appreciate the background info Wonae - albeit one sided

I wonder if there is anyone around here that has first hand knowledge and is in favour of the project?

Has got me thinking, anyway. I've been bemoaning our lack of an airport rail link for years, ever since I went traveling and learnt that every single other major city in the world has one! It makes a lot more sense to upgrade our rail system IMO.

 

[stretcharmstrong]

Just saw Andy_mac's posts. Thanks for presenting a little bit of the counter argument.

 

[Bojangles17]

Guys it’s not so much the project, it’s the knockdown effect it has on jobs and stimulation to the broader economy that these large scale public infrastructure works create that is important. Think of all of the capital investment required to build such a tunnel.

Overall the plan (taking in the full link to dockland and out to the Western Ring Rd.) also has great long term strategic advantages too. Companies looking to enter the Australian market will be more inclined to choose Melbourne over Sydney on the back of superior freight links.

That's precisely the point, wonna, where on earth do you base your point on relative lack of demand. I see you live in Brisbane, try driving through melb in peak hour and try and convince me we couldn't do with an improved infr structure linking east to west. Most arguments also fail to consider the road transport argument by default thinking as a commute only. It's massive for Victoria and a much needed infrastructure project to boost a stagnant civil construction segment

 

[Andy_Mac]

W33 the NBN is a joke, great idea, terrible execution. We were asked to tender on supplying some assets. The money they had at their disposal was ridiculous…

 

[Wonaeamirri33]

That's precisely the point, wonna, where on earth do you base your point on relative lack of demand.

On general public opinion, economic modelling, estimates of likely demand, petrol pricing forecasts, and the Census data showing car use in Melbourne is stagnating, beginning to decline, and use of public transport is at a record high.

I've already posted all the information about this in the articles above. It's all there.

 

[Bojangles17]

On general public opinion, economic modelling, estimates of likely demand, petrol pricing forecasts, and the Census data showing car use in Melbourne is stagnating, beginning to decline, and use of public transport is at a record high.

I've already posted all the information about this in the articles above. It's all there.

Those stats aren't reflected in grid locked traffic during peak times and public transport has far too many black spots in melb to ever be the answer