The Eternal Punting Thread

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Theseventhhamster

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MOD NOTICE: If in doubt as to what the expectations are for posting in this thread, for convenience, we will go with a similar line as to that of the BF punting thread. Please refer here.

Obviously we're a pretty congenial sort of group so no need to go to lengths in emphasising everything from that list of rules (just be excellent to each other) but there are some key rules admin want us to stress:
  • Do not link to any betting sites.
  • Do not blatantly advertise any particular betting sites or post/solicit betting promotional codes.
  • Do not Spam people offering to refer them to bookies and online betting sites.
We'll remove the "Mod. Notice" tag once posters have had a chance to read this OP

Thanks to Theseventhhamster for getting this thread up and going. - Mods.
 
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Theseventhhamster

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In a round of games that don't inspire me to bet at all I'm going with Dees by 40+, GWS and Saints @$3.75 On reflection I should have taken the line or more on GWS. Can't see the Dogs handling them.
 

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wowlace

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I've never gambled, but have often wondered - Is it possible to make money putting money on all the short odds favourites? Like many, many small bets across multiple sports/leagues.
 

Topkent

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I've never gambled, but have often wondered - Is it possible to make money putting money on all the short odds favourites? Like many, many small bets across multiple sports/leagues.
Depends how confident you are with a short odds favourite
Wc was 1.04 to beat stkilda so even if you multi that into 10 different bets your really only doubling your money which is risky as across a couple of results
Multies usually get ya but if your going to I'd take a couple favourites into an outsider to get your value .. this is more for fun not for actually expecting to win
 

autocol

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I've never gambled, but have often wondered - Is it possible to make money putting money on all the short odds favourites? Like many, many small bets across multiple sports/leagues.
No. Booking agencies are like the house in a casino. They set up their odds so that no matter the outcome of the wager, they win. So on a true 50/50 coin flip, they offer $1.95.

The expected value (ie; average return) of a $1 wager on a coin flip with those odds is $0.975. On average, every time you bet a dollar you will receive 97.5 cents back. So you may start off winning a few and get ahead, but if you bet on it regularly, you will inevitably end up behind soon enough.

However, whilst bookies start with odds based on their predicted outcome, they shift them as money comes in so that they will make a profit whatever the result.

For example, if they have the Hawks vs Cats as a "coin flip" result in their own analysis, they'll offer $1.95 on each of them. That way, whoever wins they'll still profit. If they received even money for each result, they would be taking in a dollar from every losing bet, to pay 95 cents to every winning bet. (In case it isn't obvious, a fair set of odds in that case would be $2.00. You will never see a bookie frame a fair set of odds, for obvious reasons).

If the punters think the Cats are going to win, and lots of bets are placed on them, the bookies shorten the odds (to say $1.50) on them, while lengthening the odds on the Hawks (to say $2.30). Of course the probability of the Cats winning hasn't changed, the odds just shift to ensure the bookie stays in a winning position no matter the outcome.

Betting on the favourite just means that you're betting on the same outcome most other people are. If you accept the "wisdom of the crowd" effect (that is, a large number of people guessing an outcome will generally average out to be very close to correct, something which has been empirically tested with games like "guess the number of jelly beans in the jar" to be quite accurate), then the Expected Value of a bet is likely to be the odds offered by the bookie, minus their profit margin. Like the coin flip example, this means that if you bet regularly (and do not have some means of more accurately guessing the outcome than the rest of the punting public), you WILL lose.

Now - in games like poker - being exceptionally good at mathematics, or reading people (or both) gives you enough of a numerical advantage that you can comfortably post a profit regularly. Note that most people are not as good at said mathematics or observation as they think, and therefore lose more than they win (to the small percentage of people who really are good at those things). (Note also that in a casino or online poker forum the house takes a cut, so you need to be better than everyone else by at least that percentage in order to just break even).

Where betting on AFL is concerned, unless you're using a highly sophisticated algorithm (not unlike Max Barry's famed squiggle), it's highly unlikely that you are better equipped to guess the outcome of matches than the crowd, and therefore the expected value of each of your bets is the wagered odds minus the gambling company profits, and over time you will almost certainly lose.

Unfortunately, due to the Illusory Superiority Effect - the cognitive bias that causes 94% of drivers to think they're better than average - most people significantly overrate their ability to predict future outcomes, and thus gambling is a popular pursuit, despite costing the vast majority of its participants money (whilst making the booking companies very wealthy).

So there's my rant. Thanks for starting this thread. You can all gamble to your heart's content and I won't post in this thread again (unless someone specifically asks me to).

I would just like to point out, before I go, that I'm not the fun police, and I don't think that you should all be forced to stop gambling "because I don't like it". However, I AM old enough to remember a time when gambling was - if not completely illegal - highly regulated in this country and this state in particular. We could watch footy without every billboard, ad break and "special comment" littered with exhortations for us to gamble.

I do think gambling is having a lasting negative effect on our society, particularly on lower socio-economic groups who don't understand how heavily the odds are literally stacked against them, and who scarcely have the money to waste on such a pursuit.

As a result - and particularly on a forum where kids are likely to be reading - any time I see gambling unnecessarily glorified, I take the opportunity to shoot it down for the crap I believe it to be.

If you enjoy it, and you think you get good value for your investment, good for you.

Just keep the helpline number in your back pocket. Just in case.
 

Topkent

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autocol do you enjoy a beer? a smoke? some 4-20? a cheeseburger? watching tv? etc
Everyone has their vice and idiots are gonna be idiots but gambling is no more of a waste of money than anything else you can get hooked onto and is shoved down your face

Ive made gambling mistakes before and will make them again but its my right to make those mistakes
 

Theseventhhamster

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No. Booking agencies are like the house in a casino. They set up their odds so that no matter the outcome of the wager, they win. So on a true 50/50 coin flip, they offer $1.95.

The expected value (ie; average return) of a $1 wager on a coin flip with those odds is $0.975. On average, every time you bet a dollar you will receive 97.5 cents back. So you may start off winning a few and get ahead, but if you bet on it regularly, you will inevitably end up behind soon enough.

However, whilst bookies start with odds based on their predicted outcome, they shift them as money comes in so that they will make a profit whatever the result.

For example, if they have the Hawks vs Cats as a "coin flip" result in their own analysis, they'll offer $1.95 on each of them. That way, whoever wins they'll still profit. If they received even money for each result, they would be taking in a dollar from every losing bet, to pay 95 cents to every winning bet. (In case it isn't obvious, a fair set of odds in that case would be $2.00. You will never see a bookie frame a fair set of odds, for obvious reasons).

If the punters think the Cats are going to win, and lots of bets are placed on them, the bookies shorten the odds (to say $1.50) on them, while lengthening the odds on the Hawks (to say $2.30). Of course the probability of the Cats winning hasn't changed, the odds just shift to ensure the bookie stays in a winning position no matter the outcome.

Betting on the favourite just means that you're betting on the same outcome most other people are. If you accept the "wisdom of the crowd" effect (that is, a large number of people guessing an outcome will generally average out to be very close to correct, something which has been empirically tested with games like "guess the number of jelly beans in the jar" to be quite accurate), then the Expected Value of a bet is likely to be the odds offered by the bookie, minus their profit margin. Like the coin flip example, this means that if you bet regularly (and do not have some means of more accurately guessing the outcome than the rest of the punting public), you WILL lose.

Now - in games like poker - being exceptionally good at mathematics, or reading people (or both) gives you enough of a numerical advantage that you can comfortably post a profit regularly. Note that most people are not as good at said mathematics or observation as they think, and therefore lose more than they win (to the small percentage of people who really are good at those things). (Note also that in a casino or online poker forum the house takes a cut, so you need to be better than everyone else by at least that percentage in order to just break even).

Where betting on AFL is concerned, unless you're using a highly sophisticated algorithm (not unlike Max Barry's famed squiggle), it's highly unlikely that you are better equipped to guess the outcome of matches than the crowd, and therefore the expected value of each of your bets is the wagered odds minus the gambling company profits, and over time you will almost certainly lose.

Unfortunately, due to the Illusory Superiority Effect - the cognitive bias that causes 94% of drivers to think they're better than average - most people significantly overrate their ability to predict future outcomes, and thus gambling is a popular pursuit, despite costing the vast majority of its participants money (whilst making the booking companies very wealthy).

So there's my rant. Thanks for starting this thread. You can all gamble to your heart's content and I won't post in this thread again (unless someone specifically asks me to).

I would just like to point out, before I go, that I'm not the fun police, and I don't think that you should all be forced to stop gambling "because I don't like it". However, I AM old enough to remember a time when gambling was - if not completely illegal - highly regulated in this country and this state in particular. We could watch footy without every billboard, ad break and "special comment" littered with exhortations for us to gamble.

I do think gambling is having a lasting negative effect on our society, particularly on lower socio-economic groups who don't understand how heavily the odds are literally stacked against them, and who scarcely have the money to waste on such a pursuit.

As a result - and particularly on a forum where kids are likely to be reading - any time I see gambling unnecessarily glorified, I take the opportunity to shoot it down for the crap I believe it to be.

If you enjoy it, and you think you get good value for your investment, good for you.

Just keep the helpline number in your back pocket. Just in case.
Excellent post.
 

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autocol

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autocol do you enjoy a beer? a smoke? some 4-20? a cheeseburger? watching tv?
Yes, no, yes, yes, no. I don't think any of them are particularly relevant, though. I'm not denying your right to gamble if you want to. The last paragraphs of my post clearly say exactly that.

I am saying that as a university trained statistician and a post-graduate educated marketing professional, I see the gambling industry manipulating people by leveraging known cognitive biases in a manner which I consider to be grossly unethical. I'm not denying your right to gamble if you want to, but I won't be denied my right to point out what a load of horseshit it is at every opportunity, either.

You may continue to make mistakes gambling, and I will continue to rail against the gambling industry.

As I said though, unless specifically asked I won't do it in this thread, which should be for you guys that enjoy gambling to discuss it in a manner that doesn't unduly derail the rest of the threads.

Carry on.
 
Last edited:

TheCount

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Yes, no, yes, yes, no. I don't think any of them are particularly relevant, though. I'm not denying your right to gamble if you want to. The last paragraphs of my post clearly say exactly that.

I am saying that as a university trained statistician and a post-graduate educated marketing expert, I see the gambling industry manipulating people by leveraging known cognitive biases in a manner which I consider to be grossly unethical. I'm not denying your right to gamble if you want to, but I won't be denied my right to point out what a load of horseshit it is at every opportunity, either.

You may continue to make mistakes gambling, and I will continue to rail against the gambling industry.

As I said though, unless specifically asked I won't do it in this thread, which should be for you guys that enjoy gambling to discuss it in a manner that doesn't unduly derail the rest of the threads.

Carry on.
I've no problem with your post generally speaking. It was actually quite interesting written by someone with as much knowledge in the area such as you clearly have.

However, you have expressed your opinion on the matter several times before, and you were the one to ask for a separate thread to be created. So I think it's quite inappropriate for you to voice your negative views on gambling in the thread created so you didn't have to read about gambling.
 

wowlace

Norm Smith Medallist
Feb 15, 2010
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No. Booking agencies are like the house in a casino. They set up their odds so that no matter the outcome of the wager, they win. So on a true 50/50 coin flip, they offer $1.95.

The expected value (ie; average return) of a $1 wager on a coin flip with those odds is $0.975. On average, every time you bet a dollar you will receive 97.5 cents back. So you may start off winning a few and get ahead, but if you bet on it regularly, you will inevitably end up behind soon enough.

However, whilst bookies start with odds based on their predicted outcome, they shift them as money comes in so that they will make a profit whatever the result.

For example, if they have the Hawks vs Cats as a "coin flip" result in their own analysis, they'll offer $1.95 on each of them. That way, whoever wins they'll still profit. If they received even money for each result, they would be taking in a dollar from every losing bet, to pay 95 cents to every winning bet. (In case it isn't obvious, a fair set of odds in that case would be $2.00. You will never see a bookie frame a fair set of odds, for obvious reasons).

If the punters think the Cats are going to win, and lots of bets are placed on them, the bookies shorten the odds (to say $1.50) on them, while lengthening the odds on the Hawks (to say $2.30). Of course the probability of the Cats winning hasn't changed, the odds just shift to ensure the bookie stays in a winning position no matter the outcome.

Betting on the favourite just means that you're betting on the same outcome most other people are. If you accept the "wisdom of the crowd" effect (that is, a large number of people guessing an outcome will generally average out to be very close to correct, something which has been empirically tested with games like "guess the number of jelly beans in the jar" to be quite accurate), then the Expected Value of a bet is likely to be the odds offered by the bookie, minus their profit margin. Like the coin flip example, this means that if you bet regularly (and do not have some means of more accurately guessing the outcome than the rest of the punting public), you WILL lose.

Now - in games like poker - being exceptionally good at mathematics, or reading people (or both) gives you enough of a numerical advantage that you can comfortably post a profit regularly. Note that most people are not as good at said mathematics or observation as they think, and therefore lose more than they win (to the small percentage of people who really are good at those things). (Note also that in a casino or online poker forum the house takes a cut, so you need to be better than everyone else by at least that percentage in order to just break even).

Where betting on AFL is concerned, unless you're using a highly sophisticated algorithm (not unlike Max Barry's famed squiggle), it's highly unlikely that you are better equipped to guess the outcome of matches than the crowd, and therefore the expected value of each of your bets is the wagered odds minus the gambling company profits, and over time you will almost certainly lose.

Unfortunately, due to the Illusory Superiority Effect - the cognitive bias that causes 94% of drivers to think they're better than average - most people significantly overrate their ability to predict future outcomes, and thus gambling is a popular pursuit, despite costing the vast majority of its participants money (whilst making the booking companies very wealthy).

So there's my rant. Thanks for starting this thread. You can all gamble to your heart's content and I won't post in this thread again (unless someone specifically asks me to).

I would just like to point out, before I go, that I'm not the fun police, and I don't think that you should all be forced to stop gambling "because I don't like it". However, I AM old enough to remember a time when gambling was - if not completely illegal - highly regulated in this country and this state in particular. We could watch footy without every billboard, ad break and "special comment" littered with exhortations for us to gamble.

I do think gambling is having a lasting negative effect on our society, particularly on lower socio-economic groups who don't understand how heavily the odds are literally stacked against them, and who scarcely have the money to waste on such a pursuit.

As a result - and particularly on a forum where kids are likely to be reading - any time I see gambling unnecessarily glorified, I take the opportunity to shoot it down for the crap I believe it to be.

If you enjoy it, and you think you get good value for your investment, good for you.

Just keep the helpline number in your back pocket. Just in case.
Interesting.
 

Russian Demon

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Punting isn't an investment, at least not for those who aren't advantage players doing it professionally (who make up 99.9%). Regulate all you want, but you can't protect people from themselves.

So if punting is a vice or gives u enjoyment and you only punt what you can afford to lose, its no worse than any other vice, and unlike other vices you can get a return now and then!

But as far as people with a problem, there is help available to those willing to pick up a phone and take responsibility for their actions.
 

autocol

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As I said though, unless specifically asked I won't do it in this thread, which should be for you guys that enjoy gambling to discuss it in a manner that doesn't unduly derail the rest of the threads.
However, you have expressed your opinion on the matter several times before, and you were the one to ask for a separate thread to be created. So I think it's quite inappropriate for you to voice your negative views on gambling in the thread created so you didn't have to read about gambling.
Edit for TheCount so as not to needlessly add posts to this thread:

Whatever mate. You can have the last word. Ciao.
 
Last edited:

schmuttt

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I've no problem with your post generally speaking. It was actually quite interesting written by someone with as much knowledge in the area such as you clearly have.

However, you have expressed your opinion on the matter several times before, and you were the one to ask for a separate thread to be created. So I think it's quite inappropriate for you to voice your negative views on gambling in the thread created so you didn't have to read about gambling.
Yep. If you don't like gambling thats fine, but don't come in the gambling thread and keep looking to argue.
 

Theseventhhamster

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I thought it was a great post that helped answer a question in the thread in much more detail than could have been bothered doing. These threads tend to die away after a couple of weeks so an argument here and there would probably be beneficial. :)
 

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