The Eternal Punting Thread

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A11dAtP0w3R

Enjoying my teams losses more than I should 😙
Oct 18, 2013
43,955
51,006
AFL Club
Melbourne
Other Teams
Carolina Panthers. Zach Wilson.
Have had a small nibble on grand slam ew in the cox plate @ $23 just coz of the lack of speed and on speed 3yos have a great recent record in the race. Wet track no real issue either.

On form and ratings, no hope. But the formula too good to ignore for me.
 

A11dAtP0w3R

Enjoying my teams losses more than I should 😙
Oct 18, 2013
43,955
51,006
AFL Club
Melbourne
Other Teams
Carolina Panthers. Zach Wilson.
Have had a small nibble on grand slam ew in the cox plate @ $23 just coz of the lack of speed and on speed 3yos have a great recent record in the race. Wet track no real issue either.

On form and ratings, no hope. But the formula too good to ignore for me.
Pacemaker for the winner clearly. That's not how you ride 3yos in a Cox Plate McNeil. 😂
 

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jikost

Club Legend
Oct 9, 2003
1,539
272
AFL Club
Melbourne
Other Teams
Melbourne
Pretty confident on Trump in a couple of days time. The polls are completely flawed (even more so than 4 years ago) and every other metric points away from Biden and towards Trump so here's my bets:

Trump to win outright @ $2.60
Trump to win Wisconsin @ $4.00
Trump to win North Carolina @ $2.08
Trump to win Pennsylvania @ $2.54
Trump to win Michigan @ $4.00
Trump to win Florida @ $1.78
Trump to win Iowa @ $1.74
Trump to win Georgia @ $1.79
Trump to win Arizona @ $2.30
Trump to win Minnesota @ $3.65
Trump to win New Hampshire @ $ 4.30

Also like any multi involving the above states as US elections are highly correlated by state.
 

Russian Demon

Premiership Player
Mar 26, 2015
3,855
5,055
AFL Club
Melbourne
Pretty confident on Trump in a couple of days time. The polls are completely flawed (even more so than 4 years ago) and every other metric points away from Biden and towards Trump so here's my bets:

Trump to win outright @ $2.60
Trump to win Wisconsin @ $4.00
Trump to win North Carolina @ $2.08
Trump to win Pennsylvania @ $2.54
Trump to win Michigan @ $4.00
Trump to win Florida @ $1.78
Trump to win Iowa @ $1.74
Trump to win Georgia @ $1.79
Trump to win Arizona @ $2.30
Trump to win Minnesota @ $3.65
Trump to win New Hampshire @ $ 4.30

Also like any multi involving the above states as US elections are highly correlated by state.
Whats the logic behind polls being flawed more than last time?

I think all polls are flawed, but last time the methodologies were pure trash. There has been a lot more emphasis on data collection and trying to quantify the silent majority.

I don't disagree on the outcome, more the underlying assumption.
 

00Stinger

Duel Group 1 winner
May 8, 2007
26,810
30,250
@ HOME
AFL Club
Melbourne
Other Teams
Liverpool & San Francisco 49ers
god the telecast on the Oaks has me already wanting to rip my eyes and ears out/off

Peter Hellier as a presenter, fu** me he is bad and isn't even slightly funny

Now we have Millsy and Nadia Bartel (why doesn't she drop the ******* Bartel name by the way) coming up
 
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djpaulydemon

Club Legend
Oct 19, 2013
1,191
1,816
AFL Club
Melbourne
Had May and Fritsch not been injured and the odds were a bit juicier this would have been the week for me to bet against the Dees. Win lots of money or be 5-0, can't lose.
 

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Crusty Demon

Premiership Player
Sep 20, 2009
4,382
4,366
Ferntree Gully
AFL Club
Melbourne
Other Teams
Leeds United
Yeah, $1.26 faves is getting into dangerous territory for us. We usually s*** the bed when we're at those odds. Hawks haven't been bad and with May out and Fritsch now gone it's the classic banana skin game. $3.90 are damn good odds for Hawks. Might throw a pineapple on it. Hopefully we're 5-0 but you have to go with the odds sometimes..
 

Topkent

Hall of Famer
Aug 29, 2010
44,157
56,840
Canada
AFL Club
Melbourne
Other Teams
Winnipeg Jets
Yeah, $1.26 faves is getting into dangerous territory for us. We usually s*** the bed when we're at those odds. Hawks haven't been bad and with May out and Fritsch now gone it's the classic banana skin game. $3.90 are damn good odds for Hawks. Might throw a pineapple on it. Hopefully we're 5-0 but you have to go with the odds sometimes..
This is one of those games where it's negligent for our fans not to bet against us.
 

djpaulydemon

Club Legend
Oct 19, 2013
1,191
1,816
AFL Club
Melbourne
Hawthorn paying $4 is fairly juicy though?
Yeah I phrased that wrong. I'm still gonna bet against us, but just not a large amount, maybe a pineapple.

If we were full strength and the odds were even better i would bet a lot more. Not necessarily because I would win more, just my tolerance of losing would be a lot lower and would then need to win more money to not be pissed off.
 

Jamurp

Club Legend
Apr 26, 2011
2,559
4,092
AFL Club
Melbourne
Yeah I phrased that wrong. I'm still gonna bet against us, but just not a large amount, maybe a pineapple.

If we were full strength and the odds were even better i would bet a lot more. Not necessarily because I would win more, just my tolerance of losing would be a lot lower and would then need to win more money to not be pissed off.
the first rounds of 2019 were gold for betting against the dees, nobody knew how bad we really were except us, until about round 10 it seemed.
 

LeverPuller

BigFooty Tanker
Jun 23, 2011
32,502
36,105
Q49, Olympic Stand
AFL Club
Melbourne
Other Teams
Newcastle United Seattle Seahawks
So one thing I love looking for is broken odds, where a one eyed supporter base forces the bookies to skew the odds to cover their losses.

And I think we have one today.

Pies v Suns. On form it’s a 50/50 IMO but Sportsbet are paying $2.58 on the Suns right now.

I’ve thrown a $20 on them.
 

Devastating Boris

Premiership Player
Apr 21, 2008
4,369
4,798
Canberra
AFL Club
Melbourne
So one thing I love looking for is broken odds, where a one eyed supporter base forces the bookies to skew the odds to cover their losses.

And I think we have one today.

Pies v Suns. On form it’s a 50/50 IMO but Sportsbet are paying $2.58 on the Suns right now.

I’ve thrown a $20 on them.
Got them at $1.40 for +24.5 to try and boost a multi. They’re every chance at punching it.
 

schmuttt

Brownlow Medallist
Apr 12, 2014
23,195
37,201
AFL Club
Melbourne
Other Teams
West Ham United
So one thing I love looking for is broken odds, where a one eyed supporter base forces the bookies to skew the odds to cover their losses.

And I think we have one today.

Pies v Suns. On form it’s a 50/50 IMO but Sportsbet are paying $2.58 on the Suns right now.

I’ve thrown a $20 on them.
Got them at $1.40 for +24.5 to try and boost a multi. They’re every chance at punching it.
Good spot gents.
 

schmuttt

Brownlow Medallist
Apr 12, 2014
23,195
37,201
AFL Club
Melbourne
Other Teams
West Ham United
I'm the definition of a mug punter but had a good week, turned $10 into $530 so far.

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If the last one gets up that'd be great but otherwise have withdrawn all winnings :D
 

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