Racing The Everest 2020

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54Dogs

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Last thread locked?

Assuming we're back up and travelling across borders, looks a bit thin at this stage:

Squib
LG
Gytrash


Maybe

Biv
Farnan
Classique Legend

Pinatubo travel issues you would think
 

FallingLiefs

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Anyone want to have a go at the 10 older horses? Assume some 3yo's will pop up out of mid range 2yo form like normal but they're hard to predict.
 

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54Dogs

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Anyone want to have a go at the 10 older horses? Assume some 3yo's will pop up out of mid range 2yo form like normal but they're hard to predict.
Near impossible because it's so thin, but on current form assuming no OS horses can make it and you are asking for 10 + 2 x 3yos my stab would be

Ho: CL
Waller: Squib
Blue Army: Biv
Gaby
Gytrash
AB
SAL
Trekking
Rubisaki
Tofane

+ 3yos

Farnan
Away Game
 

FallingLiefs

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Near impossible because it's so thin, but on current form assuming no OS horses can make it and you are asking for 10 + 2 x 3yos my stab would be

Ho: CL
Waller: Squib
Blue Army: Biv
Gaby
Gytrash
AB
SAL
Trekking
Rubisaki
Tofane

+ 3yos

Farnan
Away Game

Seems an acceptable field.
 

FallingLiefs

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All that tells me is the Squib should be locked in now, and outside the top few the others have close to none.

That said no doubt there will be another couple of Gytrash types who improve quickly between now and October

Yeah the clear best sprinter should really get wrapped up early then wait for form for every other slot.
 

iluvparis

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All that tells me is the Squib should be locked in now, and outside the top few the others have close to none.

That said no doubt there will be another couple of Gytrash types who improve quickly between now and October
Yup. The Squib is the only horse you would bother locking up now. For the rest of the turn takers you may as well see how they come back in the Spring

No doubt given how its gone most years he will be locked up about 4 weeks out from the event while the likes of Farnan will be snapped up in the next fortnight.
 

54Dogs

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NATURE SQUIB CONFIRMED FOR THE EVEREST


Australia’s top sprinter Nature Strip has secured his spot in The Everest and will run for the TAB which has posted him $4 favourite.

The four-time Group One winner is trained by Chris Waller and won the TJ Smith at his most recent start.

“It’s really exciting to partner with TAB who have been supporters of The Everest for a long time. I’m confident the learnings from Nature Strip competing in The Everest last year will go a long way in 2020,” Waller said.

“With this partnership in place, we can now build a plan for the remainder of the year to give us the best possible chance of success.”

Nature Strip finished fourth behind the Waller-trained three-year-old Yes Yes Yes in The Everest in October.

No date has been confirmed for this year’s race amid uncertainty created by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The coronavirus crisis scuppered plans to take Nature Strip to Royal Ascot which is scheduled for June but racing in England remains shut down.

The other market leaders for The Everest (1200m) are Alligator Blood and Bivouac at $8 followed by Pinatubo and Santa Ana Lane at $11.

Tabcorp Managing Director Wagering and Media, Adam Rytenskild said the wagering giant was thrilled to confirm Nature Strip as its runner.

“Each year the race continues to grow in popularity and we are proud to have been involved from the beginning,” he said.

“We went so close with our slot when Santa Ana Lane ran a great second last year and we are confident Nature Strip is the horse to beat this year.

“We look forward to involving our customers along the journey to race day.”

 

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54Dogs

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This only gets worse when you consider you won't be getting Nature Strip as your runner who is the likely $3F.
Exactly.

Average price of the other runners would be say $16 with 33% of the market on the squib, a good way to turn your 1K into 2K rather than 16K.

The scary part is being Sydney will prob sell out in a week
 

FallingLiefs

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Exactly.

Average price of the other runners would be say $16 with 33% of the market on the squib, a good way to turn your 1K into 2K rather than 16K.

The scary part is being Sydney will prob sell out in a week
Say by some miracle a second horse appears that's improved to his level. Priced 4.50 and by a second miracle you land that horse as your runner. Inferred value (win only .22*2500) would be a scratch under $560 or $220 loss. So the theory goes if Nature Strip take his place without loss of form you logically cannot get value.

Just Lay Nature Strip at $1.50 for $450 profit.
 

iluvparis

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Exactly.

Average price of the other runners would be say $16 with 33% of the market on the squib, a good way to turn your 1K into 2K rather than 16K.

The scary part is being Sydney will prob sell out in a week
Unless they pick the July Cup winner - then the ticket is worth ENOOOOOOOOOORMOUS value







:$
 

Hamingja

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I don't really see how it is viable for anyone other than TAB and Godolphin to have a slot really.

TAB for marketing and Godolphin are always going to have something to throw at it.

Even Coolmore with how big they are internationally don't have much of a presence here racing wise and if they had some sprinter in the UK that was shaping up as a stallion prospect you'd want to keep it as far away as possible from the hottest sprint race in Australia.

Waller laughing after last year but it is a lot of money for an individual trainer to outlay each year if you have a run of outs.
 

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