Racing The Everest

2019 winner?

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FallingLiefs said:
Please point out these occasions. I see what you see so i found this humorous you even brought this up to make it sound like you know what you're on about.
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Apologies - four of those where against Brutal, Brave Song and CC but the point stands they all take turns and he has finished in front of plenty of them plenty of times. As I said - SAL the only outlier but don't think he will be racing to those 'peaks'

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iluvparis said:
Or in normal form logic

- finishes ahead of NS at the weights
- finishes less than 2 lengths (don't make things up) from SAL and I don't expect SAL to repeat that performance here

If SAL produces anything like his milkshake wins then he will win but I don't think he will do that

Also solid pot calling the kettle black here when you have marked AQ equal fave when her best 1200m run is a Belmont maiden beating a horse last seen getting rolled in 1MW races.
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Lol Milkshake wins. Do Stewards take any swabs in this sport? How can harness racing catch elevated TCO2 levels in a $5000 maiden but Gallops Group1 cant?
 
Everest thoughts.

Overview: Very very very even field. going through main form reference with multiple competitors show very tight compact finishes with a blanket covering them. Luck track and bias will affect result heavily on the back of this. Who aren’t the horses that follow this pattern? AQ, NS and SAL (to a lesser extent TS) they require a bit of predicting the up and downs.

SAL - Best horse. Bounces around a bit but happy to say he will perform here. map a big neg. Would prefer him on a S5 with a nice even track worried they just go too fast for him here from the turn
Pierata - King of the turn takers. (in a positive way) G1 horse in the best form and consistency of the mid rangers. Is the benchmark horse, or a type i call a marker in assessing form where you can visually assess performance on margins before even looking at time. consistent type and unlikely to fluctuate highly when in form. neg is map and something just being better than him.
Redzel - A previous marker horse who is probably a consistent 0.5-1L inferior to Pierata for a while now. Would need some map and bias assist but is the type of horse that gets that.
NS - Probably at his best the second best horse, well discussed horse for mine he is starting to get over the hill so we won't see his best again and that's the only reason i won't say he's a fringe single figure chance. Map a neg, not as high as some will say if he drew a gate this would be his best preparation for running and winning a big G1 1200m race.
Trekking - Needs too many to go poorly and doesn't map to take advantage if they do. needs a spike (unlikely at start 23)
CL - Confident he will be around a redzel in time. Makes the grade of mid rangers we have an abundance of racing here. Fair first up, poor second up has slight chance spike here on the back of a strong firming on the exchange first up against most logic. Was strong in market last time but more were keen to take him on which to me says disappointing first up and poorer second up and that's a negative SP trend for a hype horse which is not where you want to start investing.
TS - Been a fan for a while. The dry is the obvious factor but he was off the map that day he bolted in. Personally i don't like him 3w around a bend probably punching the breeze. These coolmore sprinters have had a terrible run of late in Aus. I think his best is around Pierata or slightly above and i'd much rather be on the Australians who are much more likely to perform at that level.
Alizee - The next of the Redzels this time a flashy mare version. Likely too far back. Best chance would be on TS backside on a sit sprint where she has a punchy enough sprint if not run at a heavy tempo to account for the front runners without the good horses getting involved. Not a fan as have explained previous is somewhat overrated. Finds one (or many) better.
Sunlight - Lucky to string some wins together in some weak years, another that will rely on map to win here. Will get out muscled on a genuine fair track, consistently inferior to most here.
IHT - Whys she first up? 7yo mare, likely on the down, map a big neg unless she's fresh enough to hold a position. I struggle with where to place her at 7yo on ability but just not keen on the profile at all.
AQ - Toughest horse to price, I originally thought FU was only fair but have been more impressed as time has gone on. I think they will be positive and may even get run of race. Will want the tempo on and strung out field, I like the prep even if she is coming back in distance the weeks between runs 2nd up really suits. Realistically would have won 2-3 WFA G1's in Melbourne and returning as a 4yo mare i'm hard pressed to say she won't improve up to a Cox Plate level (which is much much stronger than this rendition of the everest). I just like the way she finishes races
YYY - Spring 3yo's and you know what they say, if all else fails a 3yo will win. Comes with average-below average Golden Rose form but much prefer him back over this 1200m thought he was good fighting Bivouac and the return to 1200 is not a concern for me. What he does bring is the fact these sprinters are below average-poor and 3yo's winning races are generally a sign of lack of depth at top end which is what he gets. Worry is the map bit of no-man land factor.
Brutal - See Alizee
 
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Lol - NS at his best the second best horse - the speed fappers can never admit when they get a hype horse wrong which is their major downfall.

You've also left out the point that their must be a huge question mark that this is AQ's preferred distance (something you yourself were suggesting a few months ago - seems laughable that would change on the basis of the Theo Marks win) and that she can go to a new PB here at that distance (which she will need to to do win). There is literally ZERO value in the current price as she is priced to produce a multi length PB at a distance almost all think is short of her best. At $8-$9 I'd be tempted but she is basically priced to be the next Winx here so I am happy to risk that isn't the case. Also as you point out there is plenty love for her and YYY as she is the 'new blood' in a division that is full of turn takers - but that is super lazy form analysis and usually doesn't work (i.e. YYY simply won't be good enough).
 
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Cracking field, agree with others with quite a few that could win it, the jockey ride, track bias, barrier, tactics and old fashioned luck will play a big part in who wins.

Impossible for me to tip a winner with confidence, but I'd be very surprised if it didn't come from Pierata, Santa Ana Lane, Redzel, Nature Strip or Sunlight.
 
FallingLiefs said:
Everest thoughts.

Overview: Very very very even field. going through main form reference with multiple competitors show very tight compact finishes with a blanket covering them. Luck track and bias will affect result heavily on the back of this. Who aren’t the horses that follow this pattern? AQ, NS and SAL (to a lesser extent TS) they require a bit of predicting the up and downs.

SAL - Best horse. Bounces around a bit but happy to say he will perform here. map a big neg. Would prefer him on a S5 with a nice even track worried they just go too fast for him here from the turn
Pierata - King of the turn takers. (in a positive way) G1 horse in the best form and consistency of the mid rangers. Is the benchmark horse, or a type i call a marker in assessing form where you can visually assess performance on margins before even looking at time. consistent type and unlikely to fluctuate highly when in form. neg is map and something just being better than him.
Redzel - A previous marker horse who is probably a consistent 0.5-1L inferior to Pierata for a while now. Would need some map and bias assist but is the type of horse that gets that.
NS - Probably at his best the second best horse, well discussed horse for mine he is starting to get over the hill so we won't see his best again and that's the only reason i won't say he's a fringe single figure chance. Map a neg, not as high as some will say if he drew a gate this would be his best preparation for running and winning a big G1 1200m race.
Trekking - Needs too many to go poorly and doesn't map to take advantage if they do. needs a spike (unlikely at start 23)
CL - Confident he will be around a redzel in time. Makes the grade of mid rangers we have an abundance of racing here. Fair first up, poor second up has slight chance spike here on the back of a strong firming on the exchange first up against most logic. Was strong in market last time but more were keen to take him on which to me says disappointing first up and poorer second up and that's a negative SP trend for a hype horse which is not where you want to start investing.
TS - Been a fan for a while. The dry is the obvious factor but he was off the map that day he bolted in. Personally i don't like him 3w around a bend probably punching the breeze. These coolmore sprinters have had a terrible run of late in Aus. I think his best is around Pierata or slightly above and i'd much rather be on the Australians who are much more likely to perform at that level.
Alizee - The next of the Redzels this time a flashy mare version. Likely too far back. Best chance would be on TS backside on a sit sprint where she has a punchy enough sprint if not run at a heavy tempo to account for the front runners without the good horses getting involved. Not a fan as have explained previous is somewhat overrated. Finds one (or many) better.
Sunlight - Lucky to string some wins together in some weak years, another that will rely on map to win here. Will get out muscled on a genuine fair track, consistently inferior to most here.
IHT - Whys she first up? 7yo mare, likely on the down, map a big neg unless she's fresh enough to hold a position. I struggle with where to place her at 7yo on ability but just not keen on the profile at all.
AQ - Toughest horse to price, I originally thought FU was only fair but have been more impressed as time has gone on. I think they will be positive and may even get run of race. Will want the tempo on and strung out field, I like the prep even if she is coming back in distance the weeks between runs 2nd up really suits. Realistically would have won 2-3 WFA G1's in Melbourne and returning as a 4yo mare i'm hard pressed to say she won't improve up to a Cox Plate level (which is much much stronger than this rendition of the everest). I just like the way she finishes races
YYY - Spring 3yo's and you know what they say, if all else fails a 3yo will win. Comes with average-below average Golden Rose form but much prefer him back over this 1200m thought he was good fighting Bivouac and the return to 1200 is not a concern for me. What he does bring is the fact these sprinters are below average-poor and 3yo's winning races are generally a sign of lack of depth at top end which is what he gets. Worry is the map bit of no-man land factor.
Brutal - See Alizee
Click to expand...

I'm shocked to see the disrespect around Sunlight in the market TBH. Was she outmuscled when she beat SAL, In Her Time, Osborne Bulls down the straight in the Newmarket? Her only average runs come when the track is very soft and even then she still runs in the top3. In the TJ she was caught wide the entire run on a track that doesn't suit her and she still beat home Pierata, Redzel and Trapeze Artist. Don't see how unproven horses can be in front of her in the market like YYY, CL, AQ...Especially when the track will be good. Can only really see SAL beating her if it gets a run.
 
the egg said:
I'm shocked to see the disrespect around Sunlight in the market TBH. Was she outmuscled when she beat SAL, In Her Time, Osborne Bulls down the straight in the Newmarket? Her only average runs come when the track is very soft and even then she still runs in the top3. In the TJ she was caught wide the entire run on a track that doesn't suit her and she still beat home Pierata, Redzel and Trapeze Artist. Don't see how unproven horses can be in front of her in the market like YYY, CL, AQ...Especially when the track will be good. Can only really see SAL beating her if it gets a run.
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She was flogged first up here on a perfectly good track which is probably in a lot of peoples minds and then was pretty average in the Moir against B/C graders. If you take her win last start fair and square then she is a chance but hard to argue she wasn't suited by the way the track played and you'd imagine SAL should improve past her second up.

And outside SAL they all finished in a bunch in the TJ
 
the egg said:
I'm shocked to see the disrespect around Sunlight in the market TBH. Was she outmuscled when she beat SAL, In Her Time, Osborne Bulls down the straight in the Newmarket? Her only average runs come when the track is very soft and even then she still runs in the top3. In the TJ she was caught wide the entire run on a track that doesn't suit her and she still beat home Pierata, Redzel and Trapeze Artist. Don't see how unproven horses can be in front of her in the market like YYY, CL, AQ...Especially when the track will be good. Can only really see SAL beating her if it gets a run.
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shes not good enough at WFA. its as simple as that

Too much overanalysis as usual for this race, Its actually quite easy, On a wet track Pierata has lengths on them but the drier it is the more he comes back to the field. On a dry track SAL is the benchmark, the ones who finished behind him in the TJ Smith wont beat him if he gets a clear run. AQ is the best horse IMO easily but it probably needs more distance... doesnt discount her though Nature strip if he settles cos Waller says he is leading but thats a big if, and that destroys Catzels chances, Alizee who hasnt met these horses under similar circumstances before but is the best WFA horse in the race 1200m to 1400m. I am willing to dismiss TS as as i have said before... European sprinters have a zero win percentage in any sprint race they have contested since i can remember.
Brutal is better 1400 to 1600m not good enough and a lay in the Sydney stakes
 
Sunlight was poor first up but she's always terrible first up and then gets better and better with racing as stated by Mcevoy consistently. If you actually go back and have a look at the Moir at MV she was in a s**t position, looked dead at the 300 and then came home hard for 3rd and she's 10x better over 1200 than 1000. Factor in that it was against probably the fastest 1000m horse in the world and with another 50m she beats him.

I'd still take SAL over her, but she is the 2nd best in the race now that she's fit and still improving with age. 15's in insane. Will happily bet anyone on here $1k she finishes top 3.
 
HeathComeBack said:
shes not good enough at WFA. its as simple as that

Too much overanalysis as usual for this race, Its actually quite easy, On a wet track Pierata has lengths on them but the drier it is the more he comes back to the field. On a dry track SAL is the benchmark, the ones who finished behind him in the TJ Smith wont beat him if he gets a clear run. AQ is the best horse IMO easily but it probably needs more distance... doesnt discount her though Nature strip if he settles cos Waller says he is leading but thats a big if, and that destroys Catzels chances, Alizee who hasnt met these horses under similar circumstances before but is the best WFA horse in the race 1200m to 1400m. I am willing to dismiss TS as as i have said before... European sprinters have a zero win percentage in any sprint race they have contested since i can remember.
Brutal is better 1400 to 1600m not good enough and a lay in the Sydney stakes
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There is zero chance Nature Strip finishes in the top 3. How much evidence do you need this it's a pea heart over 1200? It's weak as piss.
 
So you want to back a horse that looked dead with 300m to go against B/C graders in an Everest? The fastest 1000m horse in the world only just beat home Miss fecking Leonidas - and she couldn't even run down that! I think I'll let her go around without me.
 
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