- Mar 14, 2014
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Don't care about finals, we were always a long shot. Let's get to 10 wins and no more injuries
Autopsy The F Word - The Run Home 2022
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We'll see if you care next Saturday if we beat the Eagles and Hawks, hit 10 wins for the season and are tied 8th on the ladder.
Lord_Flashheart
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I can't see Saints going down to the Hawks and Collingwood need to make sure they beat Port or they will be breathing down our neck as well.
- Mar 14, 2014
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We arent playing finals. We arent ready as a club. We successfully showed that in the Essendon game, season was on the line and we blew it.
Even if the Saints don't go down to Hawthorn tomorrow, they should lose their last three to Geelong, Brisbane and Sydney. That would keep them on 11 wins and should mean a poor percentage which means we're a big chance to finish ahead of them when you look at our draw. The preference is for Hawthorn to beat them this tomorrow, though.
As you pointed out, a Collingwood win over Port would be good too.
That's really unfair to judge our whole season on one away game against Essendon. We were fantastic at the Gabba last week for more than three quarters and the Lions are a consensus top 4 team this year with some believing they can win the flag. Clearly our boys are capable of playing at the level required to qualify for the finals, it's just a question of consistency. Sure, beating Essendon would have put us in a great position but you could say the same thing about Richmond losing to North two weeks ago. No one is writing off Richmond yet so I don't see why you're so willing to write us off when there's still four games to go.
This season has proven time and time again that you absolutely can't rule out any possibility and we're definitely still a chance when you look at the upcoming fixtures. In all likelihood, we beat both West Coast and Hawthorn in our next two games and get to 10 wins / 10 losses and unless several unexpected results occur where top 4 teams lose games they shouldn't, then we'll either be equal 8th or just one win behind 8th after the Hawthorn game next week.
- Mar 14, 2014
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Because we were in a serious position to attack finals and fumbled against a lesser opponent in Essendon. It's all good being positive but I wouldn't even put us favourites against Hawthorn. Both these games are 50/50 with our classic late season fade outs really hanging over our heads.
12 wins will be needed for finals. Bookmark it.
We arent winning the next 4 games.
So you'll happily book other teams in for multiple wins and believe they'll reach 12 wins but you're unwilling to book us in for wins against 17th and 13th when we've already beaten both of those teams this year? Did you watch the QClash last week? I thought we were outstanding for 80% of that game and definitely would have got the W if we were facing any team outside the top 6 IMO. It just seems like strange thinking to me but I'll go with your 12 win theory and lay out some possibilities:
The Dogs are on 10 wins right now and have a tricky month ahead with Geelong in Geelong, Fremantle, GWS and Hawthorn in Launceston. We would expect them to lose to Geelong tomorrow night and I think Freo should go in as favourites against them next week. So if we're to assume they lose both of those games against the higher ranked opponents, then we'd just need them to slip against GWS or Hawthorn for them to not reach 12 wins. The Hawks have shown they're still capable of winning games over the last three weeks and I still believe GWS have the talent to trouble any team if they're on. The Dogs and Giants have an intense rivalry so it's entirely possible they show up for that game.
St Kilda are also on 10 wins right now and they have a very difficult month ahead. Tomorrow they face Hawthorn (who are in form) and then they've got Geelong in Geelong, Brisbane and Sydney. Even if they get to 11 wins tomorrow by beating the Hawks, I don't like their chances against the Cats, Lions or Swans. I think it's pretty unlikely St Kilda reach 12 wins this season with that draw.
Richmond are on 9.5 wins right now and also have a tricky month ahead. They play Brisbane on Sunday, Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Hawthorn and Essendon. I'm expecting a loss to Brisbane on Sunday with the way the Tigers have been travelling lately and it's entirely possible the Power take them down at Adelaide Oval next week (they pushed Geelong all the way at that venue last week). As I've already pointed out, Hawthorn is potentially a difficult fixture as well and then they've got Essendon who have been really good over the last month. The Bombers would absolutely love the opportunity to eliminate any possibility of Richmond making the finals in round 23. Richmond may get to 11.5 wins which could be enough to qualify for the finals but it seems just as likely to me that they could finish the season on 10.5 wins.
I guess we have to include Port Adelaide in this list as well. The Power currently have 8 wins and face Collingwood at the G, Richmond at home, Essendon at Marvel and the Crows in round 23. I'm expecting them to lose to Collingwood tomorrow and it's entirely possible they drop another one or two games to Richmond, Essendon or even the Crows. Can't see them getting to 11 wins, let alone 12.
Then we've got our draw. West Coast at Metricon, Hawthorn in Tassie, Geelong at Metricon and North at Marvel. I'm confident we'll beat West Coast on Sunday and while I accept that Hawthorn are no pushovers, I still think we should come out on top in that game. We've already beaten both these clubs this season and I just feel like that mental edge could be the difference. If we get the two wins against the Eagles and Hawks then we'll have a much better understanding of what's required to make the finals. If we go into the Geelong game knowing we need a win to stay alive then so be it - at least we will have put ourselves in a position to compete for a finals spot in the final fortnight of the season. If we go into that Geelong game knowing we have some breathing space then anything is possible with the game against North the following week. I definitely think we can get to 11 wins this season and playing the likes of 17th and 18th should mean we're afforded the opportunity to drastically improve our percentage.
The dream is alive in my mind. I know you disagree and that's fine but I'm basing my opinion on what I can see in the fixture. Sure, we may need a result or two to go our way but this season has proven that any result is possible. All you can do is win the games you have ahead of you and I'm fairly confident we'll be tasting victory twice in the next fortnight.
My_Username
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We also need some %
Let's add in GWS over Sydney and Adelaide over Carlton. (preferably by large margins)
Neither are especially likely, but let's hope for every possible option.
As much as Sydney losing to GWS would keep another avenue to the finals open, the Swans face North next week so I'm fairly sure that door will be shut at some point over the next seven days. Carlton is an interesting one though because even though they've already reached 12 wins, their final three weeks of the season are extremely tough with games against Brisbane at the Gabba, Melbourne at the MCG and Collingwood at the MCG. Should they lose to the Crows at Adelaide Oval tonight, it's entirely possible they lose four straight, remain on 12 wins for the season and their final position on the ladder could be decided by percentage. The Blues currently have a percentage of 115.5% but that could take a serious hammering in those last three weeks given the opponents they face.
Of course it's unlikely that we will reach 12 wins for the season but like you said you want to keep every possible option open while it's still there. I'm not going to suggest that I think we can beat Geelong at Metricon in two weeks' time but I will say that amazing things can happen in sport when opportunities arise and players feel like they are playing for something significant.
My_Username
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Exactly. I can accept that we're outsiders right now but if we can get within one win of a top 8 position then clearly our season is still alive.
Results today and tomorrow will be telling.
My_Username
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So much for GWS getting a % booster over Sydney....
But hey, it was always the least likely of our straws to survive long.
But hey, it was always the least likely of our straws to survive long.
It officially ends our dream of a home final this year as we are no longer capable of finishing in the top 6. Having said that, the Lions are currently 5th on the ladder so there's still the possibility of a final in South East Queensland involving us. 7th and 8th positions remain in play for us.
Hawthorn look like they're up for the fight against St Kilda. If they can beat the Saints and take a few points off their percentage then that could be very helpful for us later on.
MarcLocksCrustySock
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Finals is done but I really hope the F word isn't * tomorrow.
In retrospect, finals were probably done after Weller, Buddhas and Powelly went down. Jeffrey and Charlie getting injured just put an exclamation mark on it.
Probably one of the least convincing wins of the year but St Kilda get the job done against Hawthorn by 12 points. That gets them to 11 wins which complicates it a bit for us but they will go into the last three games of the season as heavy underdogs against Geelong, Brisbane and Sydney. So it's entirely possible the Saints finish the season on 11 wins and their current percentage of 104.3% should take a hit over the next three weeks. Considering we still have three very winnable games against the Eagles, Hawks & Roos and our percentage nearly superior to theirs already (103.2%) I'm still optimistic about our chances of finishing ahead of the Saints.
This next game between the Dogs and Cats is very important. Unlike the Saints game, we really can't account for the Bulldogs winning tonight. We absolutely need a Geelong win tonight.
This next game between the Dogs and Cats is very important. Unlike the Saints game, we really can't account for the Bulldogs winning tonight. We absolutely need a Geelong win tonight.
Big Red Machine
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Gave up the first 20 unanswered then put up 80 to 24 since
Big Red Machine
Der Sonnenkönig
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Carlton drop a game to Adelaide and sit on 12 wins with Brisbane, Melbourne and Collingwood to go...
Do we dare to dream? Blues on 12 wins, we're on 8 wins with 4 games to go...
Probably goes without saying but the results we need tomorrow are for us beat West Coast and for Brisbane to take down Richmond. The ladder would suggest both of those results should occur so we're not asking for too much tomorrow.
Important game today.
Need to play as many games as possible with both expectation of a win and the chance (however slim) of finals.
A big win today would be a positive sign.
Got the job done in the end and we remain alive.
Brisbane are currently pumping Richmond at the MCG so it looks like we'll get the two results we need today. Assuming Brisbane hold on, the ladder will look like this:
7. Carlton 12-7 112.6% (Brisbane, Melbourne, Collingwood)
8. St Kilda 11-8 104.3% (Geelong, Brisbane, Sydney)
9. Bulldogs 10-9 109.4% (Fremantle, GWS, Hawthorn)
10. Richmond 9-9-1 111.6% (Port Adelaide, Hawthorn, Essendon)
11. Gold Coast 9-10 103.2% (Hawthorn, Geelong, North Melbourne)
Three games to go in this season which means the most wins we can get is 12 and the highest we can finish is 7th. Both the 7th placed Blues and 8th placed Saints have extremely tough finishes to the season, to the point where they could both lose all three and remain on the exact amount of wins that they're currently on. That gives us hope and the Bulldogs having to face Fremantle next week also gives us hope. If results fall the way the ladder suggests they should next week then we'll be just one win behind 8th position and two wins behind 7th position at the end of round 21 with two weeks to go. In fact, we play before any of those teams next week when we face the Hawks in Tassie on Saturday arvo so we can heap even more pressure on them just by being the first team to win in the next round.
Anyone else like the sound of a two-week shootout for the final two top 8 spots?
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