Autopsy The F Word - The Run Home 2022

[GC2015]

Got the job done in the end and we remain alive.

Brisbane are currently pumping Richmond at the MCG so it looks like we'll get the two results we need today. Assuming Brisbane hold on, the ladder will look like this:

7. Carlton 12-7 112.6% (Brisbane, Melbourne, Collingwood)
8. St Kilda 11-8 104.3% (Geelong, Brisbane, Sydney)
9. Bulldogs 10-9 109.4% (Fremantle, GWS, Hawthorn)
10. Richmond 9-9-1 111.6% (Port Adelaide, Hawthorn, Essendon)
11. Gold Coast 9-10 103.2% (Hawthorn, Geelong, North Melbourne)

Three games to go in this season which means the most wins we can get is 12 and the highest we can finish is 7th. Both the 7th placed Blues and 8th placed Saints have extremely tough finishes to the season, to the point where they could both lose all three and remain on the exact amount of wins that they're currently on. That gives us hope and the Bulldogs having to face Fremantle next week also gives us hope. If results fall the way the ladder suggests they should next week then we'll be just one win behind 8th position and two wins behind 7th position at the end of round 21 with two weeks to go. In fact, we play before any of those teams next week when we face the Hawks in Tassie on Saturday arvo so we can heap even more pressure on them just by being the first team to win in the next round.

Anyone else like the sound of a two-week shootout for the final two top 8 spots?

Fixed ladder after Richmond's upset of Brisbane:

7. Carlton 12-7 112.6% (Brisbane, Melbourne, Collingwood)
8. St Kilda 11-8 104.3% (Geelong, Brisbane, Sydney)
9. Richmond 10-8-1 111.6% (Port Adelaide, Hawthorn, Essendon)
10. Bulldogs 10-9 109.4% (Fremantle, GWS, Hawthorn)
11. Gold Coast 9-10 103.2% (Hawthorn, Geelong, North Melbourne)
12. Port Adelaide 8-11 104.7% (Richmond, Essendon, Adelaide)

We'll need Port Adelaide to take down Richmond next week.

 

[Lord_Flashheart]

Brisbane should have had that in the bag.

Was cursing Gardiner last night for that kick.

 

[Lord_Flashheart]

I don't think we've ever been able to consider finals this late in the year (even 2014), whilst my guess is we will just miss out with 11 wins now, it bodes well for the next few years.

 

[GC2015]

Brisbane should have had that in the bag.

Was cursing Gardiner last night for that kick.

I don't think we've ever been able to consider finals this late in the year (even 2014), whilst my guess is we will just miss out with 11 wins now, it bodes well for the next few years.

Obviously it would have been nice for us if Brisbane had held on but Richmond lost Dylan Grimes in that game which is going to make life very difficult for them. I like Port Adelaide's chances of beating them at Adelaide Oval on Saturday night. Dixon and/or Marshall will likely have a field day with no Grimes in the Richmond lineup. That would keep Richmond on 10.5 wins and we have the opportunity to move to 10 wins against the Hawks earlier that day. For the record, I like our chances against Hawthorn since it will be raining and they will likely be missing Mitch Lewis, Jacob Koschitzke and Changkuoth Jiath.

The other big game we would need to fall our way is Fremantle beating the Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium on Saturday twilight. The Dockers should be fired up because a win will put them back in the top 4 and if Freo can get the job done then that will keep the Dogs on 10 wins. Then we just need the most likely result to occur which is Geelong beating St Kilda at Kardinia Park on Saturday night and that will keep the Saints on 11 wins.

Who would have thought at the start of the season that we could potentially be within a single win of the top 8 going into round 22? I should also point out that the team that's currently in 8th position are only 1.1% ahead of us in percentage... Anyway, the Geelong game at Metricon in two weeks could pull a massive crowd if the Gold Coast public gets wind of the fact that we're still a sneaky finals chance and it's a favourable time slot with it being a twilight game. Who knows what could happen from there?

Having said all that, we play before any other team around us on the ladder on Saturday afternoon so we are guaranteed to move within one win of the top 8 should we beat the Hawks (at least temporarily). Then it just comes down to whether results fall favourably for us to stay within one win of the top 8.



EDIT: I should add that we're mathematically still capable of finishing ahead of Carlton. They have a shocking run of games to finish the season and they could potentially lose all three. We would also have to win our remaining three games and get a percentage boost in one or two of them but the possibility of finishing ahead of the 7th placed Blues remains in play for the time being.

 

[GC2015]

It's kind of crazy to think if we had won just one of the games we dropped early in the year like GWS in round 3, Port Adelaide in round 15, Collingwood in round 16, Essendon in round 18 or even Brisbane in round 19, then we would have the opportunity to enter the top 8 on Saturday arvo when we face the Hawks in Tassie because we play before any other club does in this round. That's how close we are to making the F word a reality in 2022!

Don't get me wrong, I still believe there's a chance but the motivation levels would be absolutely through the roof if our players knew they were playing to enter the top 8 this Saturday... but who knows. Maybe we'll get that chance in a week or two from now.

 

[My_Username]

Fixed ladder after Richmond's upset of Brisbane:

7. Carlton 12-7 112.6% (Brisbane, Melbourne, Collingwood)
8. St Kilda 11-8 104.3% (Geelong, Brisbane, Sydney)
9. Richmond 10-8-1 111.6% (Port Adelaide, Hawthorn, Essendon)
10. Bulldogs 10-9 109.4% (Fremantle, GWS, Hawthorn)
11. Gold Coast 9-10 103.2% (Hawthorn, Geelong, North Melbourne)
12. Port Adelaide 8-11 104.7% (Richmond, Essendon, Adelaide)

We'll need Port Adelaide to take down Richmond next week.

OK. 2 options.

1) We win 3 (Geelong!) which opens up a second possible spot if Carlton lose all 3 (likely) meaning StK, Rich or WB can win an extra game and we still make it.

2) We win 2, and Carlton, St Kilda & Richmond all lose 3, and WB lose 2 (or 1 and a serious % change occurs). nb...This brings in the really horrible scenario of Port winning 3 and edging us on %.

Not sure which is more (less?) likely, but when was the last time we were still any kind of chance going into Rnd 21? Indeed, given we have a winable game this week and the clubs above us all have tough ones, we should still be in with a chance next week too!

-----

I think Carlton and St Kilda losing 3 is fairly likely...The spanner in the works is more likely to be Richmond and/or Bulldogs, both of whom I'd pick to win 2, and only one of them has to do so to edge us out.

That said, my tipping is generally pretty awful, so what do I know?

 

[GC2015]

OK. 2 options.

1) We win 3 (Geelong!) which opens up a second possible spot if Carlton lose all 3 (likely) meaning StK, Rich or WB can win an extra game and we still make it.

2) We win 2, and Carlton, St Kilda & Richmond all lose 3, and WB lose 2 (or 1 and a serious % change occurs). nb...This brings in the really horrible scenario of Port winning 3 and edging us on %.

Not sure which is more (less?) likely, but when was the last time we were still any kind of chance going into Rnd 21? Indeed, given we have a winnable game this week and the clubs above us all have tough ones, we should still be in with a chance next week too!

-----

I think Carlton and St Kilda losing 3 is fairly likely...The spanner in the works is more likely to be Richmond and/or Bulldogs, both of whom I'd pick to win 2, and only one of them has to do so to edge us out.

That said, my tipping is generally pretty awful, so what do I know?

We'll get a lot of answers this weekend. The main results we need to swing our way are Fremantle beating the Bulldogs at Marvel and Port Adelaide beating Richmond at Adelaide Oval. There are reasons to think both of these results could be possible with Fremantle absolutely desperate to get themselves back into the top 4 with a win this week (plus they've gone to Victoria several times this year and had big wins against Geelong, Melbourne & St Kilda) and Port Adelaide playing at home against a Richmond side that's missing a really crucial cog in Grimes. I'm pretty confident Geelong will do the job on the Saints so I didn't feel it was necessary to mention that as a swing game and obviously we need to take care of business against the Hawks as well. If those results do play out this weekend then we're suddenly within one win of 8th and two wins of 7th with two games to go in the season. That's when we can start to dream a little bit IMO.

At that point, I would expect us to have a superior percentage to St Kilda due to the fact that they're only ahead of us by 1.1% right now and perhaps we'll even be closing in on the Bulldogs percentage. The Dogs have us by 6% right now but who knows where that might sit on Monday if we can pull off something similar to what we did to the Hawks in Darwin earlier this year and/or Fremantle really hammer the Dogs on Saturday arvo.

Then it turns into... can we somehow find some way to get over the line against Geelong in our final home game of the season. Although it seems impossible right now, a W in that Geelong game would give us a genuine shot at making the finals. Not only because we have North in the final round of the season and that potentially gives us a huge opportunity to boost our percentage a fair bit, but it would also give us an extra game buffer to allow for Richmond to win one of their last two (I've got the Tigers beating Hawthorn and potentially losing to Essendon). It also keeps the possibility of jumping as high as 7th alive due to Carlton's tough run home. The Blues have Brisbane at the Gabba, Melbourne at the MCG and Collingwood at the MCG. Their percentage currently sits at 112.6% but if we say, hypothetically, Carlton lose each of those games 90-60 then they drop to 105.6% which seems very gettable for us considering we're on 103.2% right now. So, as you can see, keeping the possibility of finishing ahead of Carlton on 12 wins is HUGE for us. It's still possible that we make it even with a loss to Geelong but that seems very unlikely.

I know some will read this post and say I'm getting ahead of myself but that's the point of this thread. It's about finding a route into the top 8, just as My_Username did above.

 

[Billy ray]

If all this happens, then the way we get over Geelong is by announcing Ranks has resigned for 2 years mid next week.

 

[TheSunGod]

My memory of us against Hawthorn late in the season doesn’t fill me with much confidence. They’re not giving anyone a farewell game are they?

 

[Lord_Flashheart]

My memory of us against Hawthorn late in the season doesn’t fill me with much confidence. They’re not giving anyone a farewell game are they?

Maybe Worpel?

 

[GC2015]

Big day for our club. Results today will essentially determine if we have any shot of playing finals this year. We want four results to fall our way: we beat the Hawks, Fremantle beat the Bulldogs, Geelong beat St Kilda and Port Adelaide beat Richmond. If three of the four games fall that way (we can afford a Bulldogs win) then we'll officially end the round just one win behind the 8th placed Saints (and Dogs) and it's very likely we'll have a superior percentage to St Kilda under that circumstance. Then on Sunday we'll be wanting the Lions to take down Carlton to keep the possibility of finishing 7th alive as we'd be two wins behind the Blues with two games to go in the season. Obviously we don't need the Carlton result to fall our way but it would be preferred.

Let's get it!

 

[TheSunGod]

My memory of us against Hawthorn late in the season doesn’t fill me with much confidence. They’re not giving anyone a farewell game are they?

Ahh buggar it!! Not a farewell game but a milestone 250th for their captain Big Boy McEvoy. We’re screwed. Watch him destroy Witts and kick 6 goals.

 

[Supersuns]

Burn this thread down

 

[Billy ray]

 

[nutstar]

[/END THREAD]

 

[GC2015]

Not mathematically over yet unless St Kilda beat Geelong or Richmond beat Port Adelaide tonight.

 

[Supersuns]

Not mathematically over yet unless St Kilda beat Geelong or Richmond beat Port Adelaide tonight.

Lol

 

[robo_1]

Left right goodnight

 

[GC2015]

Now that we've had some time to digest the Hawthorn loss, the equation has become really clear for us. Here's what we need in chronological order:

Round 21
Fremantle to defeat Bulldogs []
Geelong to defeat St Kilda []
Port Adelaide to defeat Richmond []

Round 22
Brisbane to defeat St Kilda []
GWS to defeat Bulldogs [] (or Hawthorn defeat Bulldogs in round 23)
Gold Coast to defeat Geelong []
Hawthorn to defeat Richmond []

Round 23
Gold Coast to defeat North Melbourne []
Essendon to defeat Richmond []
Hawthorn to defeat Bulldogs [] (or GWS defeat Bulldogs in round 22)
Sydney to defeat St Kilda []


We need 10 results to fall our way and probably a bit of luck in terms of percentage. Funnily enough, most of those results will probably fall the way we want.

 

[GC2015]

Result 1/10 falls our way with Fremantle beating the Bulldogs. Next up is Geelong beating St Kilda and Port Adelaide beating Richmond. If both fall our way then we're mathematically alive for another week.

Round 21
Fremantle to defeat Bulldogs [X]
Geelong to defeat St Kilda []
Port Adelaide to defeat Richmond []

Round 22
Brisbane to defeat St Kilda []
GWS to defeat Bulldogs [] (or Hawthorn defeat Bulldogs in round 23)
Gold Coast to defeat Geelong []
Hawthorn to defeat Richmond []

Round 23
Gold Coast to defeat North Melbourne []
Essendon to defeat Richmond []
Hawthorn to defeat Bulldogs [] (or GWS defeat Bulldogs in round 22)
Sydney to defeat St Kilda []

 

[Supersuns]

 

[Big Red Machine]

If no one else has noticed, It's round 21

We've never taken it this deep for a genuine finals conversation.

With a crippled back line and no King.

Heads up lads

 

[Lord_Flashheart]

 

[GC2015]

If no one else has noticed, It's round 21

We've never taken it this deep for a genuine finals conversation.

With a crippled back line and no King.

Heads up lads

Cheers mate. Was feeling pretty low yesterday after the Hawks loss, finals officially being over and then thinking about the Rankine situation. We hung around and gave ourselves multiple chances to qualify for the finals late in the season which is something we should be proud of because it's not really something our club has ever done.

Next year we'll get back guys like King, Ballard, Jeffrey, Powell, Weller and Budarick. That will make a BIG difference.

 

[nutstar]

Cheers mate. Was feeling pretty low yesterday after the Hawks loss, finals officially being over and then thinking about the Rankine situation. We hung around and gave ourselves multiple chances to qualify for the finals late in the season which is something we should be proud of because it's not really something our club has ever done.

Next year we'll get back guys like King, Ballard, Jeffrey, Powell, Weller and Budarick. That will make a BIG difference.

Just to be a dampener on your statement.. Weller and Budarick not expected back till mid season at least.