The F Word

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First off, this isn't an overrating thread. This is to realistically look at our chances of making finals and to keep a watch on it throughout the rest of the season.

dy4tur.png


Looking at the ladder, we're 2 games into the 8 and 2 games out of the 4. If we lose to both Essendon and Hawthorn, our 2 game head start over Adelaide, West Coast and Carlton is gone. Can we make the finals? It's a realistic expectation.

Our final 9 games of the season are against Essendon, Hawthorn (H), St Kilda, Brisbane (H), Adelaide (AAMI), Geelong, Gold Coast (H), Fremantle and Carlton (H). (On that, all of our remaining home games are early Sat afternoon games that noone attends, bar R23 Carlton because that fixture hasn't been released yet)

The games against Adelaide (Round 19) and Carlton (Round 23) are 8 point games. The Carlton game will be huge. Last game at AAMI, prison bar, and a wrestle for a finals spot (potentially). Hopefully it's friday night on FTA not an early sat afternoon game.

Anyway, the way I see it is that we have 9 games left:
6 or more wins - lock for finals
5 wins - very probable for finals, although not set in stone
4 wins - possible to make it, equally as possible not to
3 wins - very probable for missing, although tiniest of chances we could make it
2 or less wins - lock for missing

PROTiP: Use the AFL LADDER PREDICTOR.
 

Canoogs

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First off, this isn't an overrating thread. This is to realistically look at our chances of making finals and to keep a watch on it throughout the rest of the season.

dy4tur.png


Looking at the ladder, we're 2 games into the 8 and 2 games out of the 4. If we lose to both Essendon and Hawthorn, our 2 game head start over gone Adelaide, West Coast and Carlton is gone. Can we make the finals? It's a realistic expectation.

We have games against Adelaide (Round 19) and Carlton (Round 23) and these are 8 point games. The Carlton game will be huge. Last game at AAMI, prison bar, and a wrestle for a finals spot (potentially). Hopefully it's friday night on FTA not an early sat afternoon game.

Anyway, the way I see it is that we have 9 games left:
6 or more wins - lock for finals
5 wins - very probably for finals, although not set in stone
4 wins - possible to make it, equally as possible not to
3 wins - very probable for missing, although tiniest of chances we could make it
2 or less wins - lock for missing

If we lose the next 2 games:

Worst case for us:
Carlton beat Collingwood, Adelaide beat Collingwood, Carlton beat St Kilda and West Coast beat Fremantle. This would put four teams at 8-7, including us. As long as none of those games blow out too much, we'd probably be sitting in 7th, based on percentage... but basically every team level on games between 6th and 9th, and only one game out of 10th.

Best case for us:
Assuming that Carlton beat St Kilda, then if Collingwood beat Carlton, West Coast beat Adelaide, Adelaide beat West Coast, and Fremantle beat West Coast. This keeps us in 8th, with West Coast, Carlton and Adelaide all on 7-8.
 

Peck

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There are 4 games left this year that we cannot be confident about. Essendon, Hawthorn, Geelong, and Fremantle. Hawthorn we have a good record against, but its still about a 1/3 chance of victory for us, Essendon is about the same but better IMHO.

We have very low chances of beating Geelong at skilled, and a reasonable chance of beating Freo at Subi. Hopefully we can win 1-2 of those 4 games, maybe even three. If we do that we have a strong chance of taking out 4/5 of the other games and easily making finals. We will definitely lose a couple of games we are "supposed to win" as that is just how footy works (especially with a young side) and there is a chance we will fall into a large slump as we did from rounds 5-11. I think we just have to wait and see as it really is about which Port Adelaide turns up at the moment.

We will learn a hell of a lot about our club in the next two weeks. What a year of football this is :D
 

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oporto

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I dont want to know the F word......... until we actually make it.....

Just treat every game as a final...... week by week....

The team is currently 8-5 with a 2 game break on 9th. There's no reason the players shouldn't begin to dream of September if they continue to play the football they showed they are capable of against Sydney and Collingwood

This season really has been joyous. I have never been happier to be proven wrong by Port Adelaide
 
Its going to be tough.

I just did the ladder predictor on the AFL site with us losing to Essendon, Hawthorn, Adelaide, Geelong & Fremantle and it ended:

6. Collingwood 56 109.9%
7. Adelaide 48 107%
8. Port Adelaide 48 106%
9. Richmond 48 105.8%
10. Carlton 44 110%

That is with:
Port beating - St Kilda, Brisbane, Gold Coast, Carlton
Adelaide beating - West Coast, Geelong (H), Port, North, Bulldogs, Melbourne
Richmond beating - St Kilda, Gold Coast, Brisbane, GWS
Carlton beating - St Kilda, Gold Coast, Bulldogs, Richmond, Essendon

So many different ways it could end. A simple change of Showdown victors mean Port finish 7th, Adelaide finish 10th. Richmond beat North they go in. Adelaide beat West Coast in R23 they go in. We lose to Carlton in R23, they go in, Port go out.

Its going to go right down to the wire. Richmond and Carlton have quite a hard run home. Adelaide have a pretty easy run home. It could very well come down to the R23 match against Carlton. Whoever wins is in. The Showdown equally important.
 

FPPF

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The team is currently 8-5 with a 2 game break on 9th. There's no reason the players shouldn't begin to dream of September if they continue to play the football they showed they are capable of against Sydney and Collingwood

This season really has been joyous. I have never been happier to be proven wrong by Port Adelaide

They shouldn't be dreaming about finals until we are a certainty to play in the finals. And even then, they should be focused on their football. I trust that Hinkely and co will keep them grounded and focused.
 

b0ydman

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I am in awe of their achievements and how far they have come, and the obvious upside for us ad a club, which is nice after a long time in the wilderness.

Also to know our club has regained that respect, and is now viable as we go into Adelaide oval.

We will win some, and lose some.

I hope we make the finals, but surely those young bodies can't stand up through an AFL season. Its not 1993 anymore, Essendon 93 couldn't be done today.

could it?

If we are to be in the hunt up until the last game vs Carlton, I think it will be all about percentage.

Can I also add, the 9th team will be in the finals this year. We need to consider a home final if, IF, some whack way we end up 7th behind an essendon above us on the ladder bumping us to 6th
 
Its going to be tough.

I just did the ladder predictor on the AFL site with us losing to Essendon, Hawthorn, Adelaide, Geelong & Fremantle and it ended:

6. Collingwood 56 109.9%
7. Adelaide 48 107%
8. Port Adelaide 48 106%
9. Richmond 48 105.8%
10. Carlton 44 110%

That is with:
Port beating - St Kilda, Brisbane, Gold Coast, Carlton
Adelaide beating - West Coast, Geelong (H), Port, North, Bulldogs, Melbourne
Richmond beating - St Kilda, Gold Coast, Brisbane, GWS
Carlton beating - St Kilda, Gold Coast, Bulldogs, Richmond, Essendon

So many different ways it could end. A simple change of Showdown victors mean Port finish 7th, Adelaide finish 10th. Richmond beat North they go in. Adelaide beat West Coast in R23 they go in. We lose to Carlton in R23, they go in, Port go out.

Its going to go right down to the wire. Richmond and Carlton have quite a hard run home. Adelaide have a pretty easy run home. It could very well come down to the R23 match against Carlton. Whoever wins is in. The Showdown equally important.

You're kidding, right? I know Brisbane beat Geelong, but there's no WAY the Crows will win against the Cats, even at AAMI. I'm also bemused by the idea that they'll win against us when we beat them when they had Walker in the side.
 
Adelaides last three against Geelong at home have been 2 wins and a 10 point loss. They always seem to lift against them at home. They also always seem to have one win against a red hot team in their poor years.
 

oporto

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They shouldn't be dreaming about finals until we are a certainty to play in the finals. And even then, they should be focused on their football. I trust that Hinkely and co will keep them grounded and focused.

No, they should very much be dreaming about finals. They have put themselves into a position to make finals. You don't play football to not make the finals. One week at a time is nice to keep the focus on that week but ultimately, the smaller goals fit neatly into the grander goal
 

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The Hobo

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It's possible, but very tight. I can't see us beating Geelong or Hawthorn, which makes the remaining games extremely important.

In my experience, upcoming younger teams like us have a big tendency to "lift" for big games like the past two weeks, and then bottle it against clubs that sit lower on the ladder. As much as we've improved, that loss against the Bulldogs should teach us that you can't take anything for granted.
 

Peck

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It's possible, but very tight. I can't see us beating Geelong or Hawthorn, which makes the remaining games extremely important.

In my experience, upcoming younger teams like us have a big tendency to "lift" for big games like the past two weeks, and then bottle it against clubs that sit lower on the ladder. As much as we've improved, that loss against the Bulldogs should teach us that you can't take anything for granted.

Sorry, but I hate comments like this.

If we keep up the way we are playing (which will be really ******* hard) the games against Hawthorn and Geelong are almost 50-50. Yes we aren't likely to win, but we most certainly can beat these teams.
 

FPPF

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No, they should very much be dreaming about finals. They have put themselves into a position to make finals. You don't play football to not make the finals. One week at a time is nice to keep the focus on that week but ultimately, the smaller goals fit neatly into the grander goal

If they start thinking that they will play finals this year, they will get distracted easily and lose focus. This is a young playing group still. They should be conditioned mentally to stay focused on the next game, not games they could(and just as easily could not) be playing in a few months time. Even if we were top of the ladder undefeated, the focus needs to remain on the next game we face, not September.

We were 5 and 0, then slumped just as quickly as we had risen. We've now put that slump behind us with two very solid and impressive wins over two of the best teams in the comp.
That momentum needs to continue by staying focused on the challenges at hand. And that is the upcoming game. And the week after that the same thing.

I hate to see our fans with the false belief that we are a certainty to play finals.
Because if we miss out, if we fall into another slump again, then those fans start the usual blame game. And who gets the blame?
Players, coaches. We don't need any more of that, we've had enough of that self inflicted poison these past few years. We were always going to lose more then a few games this year at some stage. When it happened, it resulted in the "Hinkley Out Coached Again" thread.
We need to keep things in perspective. Hinkley and co have done well to communicate to the supporters where they are taking the club, their plans etc, and to remind us that we are not there yet and we still have a long way to go.
 
I couldn't see us beating Sydney or Collingwood three weeks ago.
I couldn't see us beating Adelaide or West Coast three months ago.
Circumstances change and, right now, I think that we are capable of beating Hawthorn and Geelong.

A finals spot should definitely be on the agenda.
 

oporto

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If they start thinking that they will play finals this year, they will get distracted easily and lose focus. This is a young playing group still. They should be conditioned mentally to stay focused on the next game, not games they could(and just as easily could not) be playing in a few months time. Even if we were top of the ladder undefeated, the focus needs to remain on the next game we face, not September.

We were 5 and 0, then slumped just as quickly as we had risen. We've now put that slump behind us with two very solid and impressive wins over two of the best teams in the comp.
That momentum needs to continue by staying focused on the challenges at hand. And that is the upcoming game. And the week after that the same thing.

I hate to see our fans with the false belief that we are a certainty to play finals.
Because if we miss out, if we fall into another slump again, then those fans start the usual blame game. And who gets the blame?
Players, coaches. We don't need any more of that, we've had enough of that self inflicted poison these past few years. We were always going to lose more then a few games this year at some stage. When it happened, it resulted in the "Hinkley Out Coached Again" thread.
We need to keep things in perspective. Hinkley and co have done well to communicate to the supporters where they are taking the club, their plans etc, and to remind us that we are not there yet and we still have a long way to go.

You're not listening. The grander goal of playing finals is what the team should aspire to given the position they have put themselves in. That grander goal must be broken into a weekly concentration of putting focus on that week itself

Regarding the rest of your post, I agree. This year has been a success already. As a player, they shouldn't view this season as a success. They still have half a book to write
 

Peck

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If they start thinking that they will play finals this year, they will get distracted easily and lose focus. This is a young playing group still. They should be conditioned mentally to stay focused on the next game, not games they could(and just as easily could not) be playing in a few months time. Even if we were top of the ladder undefeated, the focus needs to remain on the next game we face, not September.

We were 5 and 0, then slumped just as quickly as we had risen. We've now put that slump behind us with two very solid and impressive wins over two of the best teams in the comp.
That momentum needs to continue by staying focused on the challenges at hand. And that is the upcoming game. And the week after that the same thing.

I hate to see our fans with the false belief that we are a certainty to play finals.
Because if we miss out, if we fall into another slump again, then those fans start the usual blame game. And who gets the blame?
Players, coaches. We don't need any more of that, we've had enough of that self inflicted poison these past few years. We were always going to lose more then a few games this year at some stage. When it happened, it resulted in the "Hinkley Out Coached Again" thread.
We need to keep things in perspective. Hinkley and co have done well to communicate to the supporters where they are taking the club, their plans etc, and to remind us that we are not there yet and we still have a long way to go.

Are you trying to deny he was outcoached in those games?

You don't progress by ignoring mistakes.
 
Adelaides last three against Geelong at home have been 2 wins and a 10 point loss. They always seem to lift against them at home. They also always seem to have one win against a red hot team in their poor years.

Yes, but that was with Tippett and Walker, correct? And with their team playing well? I wouldn't put it down as a win for Adelaide any more than I would put down our game against Essendon next week as win, even though we generally play well against the Bombers.

And you're right - they will probably beat us as the 'red hot team'....
 

FPPF

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You're not listening. The grander goal of playing finals is what the team should aspire to given the position they have put themselves in. That grander goal must be broken into a weekly concentration of putting focus on that week itself

Regarding the rest of your post, I agree. This year has been a success already. As a player, they shouldn't view this season as a success. They still have half a book to write

I understand the ultimate aim is to win premierships. But you don't do that by getting ahead of your self. You do that by staying focused. And I think Hinkley will keep them focused and on the right track.

Are you trying to deny he was outcoached in those games?

You don't progress by ignoring mistakes.

That's exactly what I'm saying. Like I said in that thread.
People need to stop blaming the coach every time something goes wrong.
Like I said in that thread, at what point do you hold the players responsible for playing s**t football? The coach cant go out there and hold their hand..they have the responsibility of PLAYING.
Coaches can only do so much. When the siren sounds, it's up to the players to do what they've trained to do. If they can't, that's not the coaches fault.

Should Burgees prepare all the players food and spoon feed them as well, to ensure they stay in shape?
If Carlile puts on weight noticeably again, will we be blaming the fitness staff at the club? I doubt it.
So why blame Hinkley when our players fail to perform on the field?

From listening to player interviews in the media, it certainly seems they have owned their mistakes and taken responsibility and addressed them. I doubt any one of them has thought that the coaches played any role in their form slump after our 5-0 start. They took responsibility and turned it around these past three weeks. And that's something that we've been lacking in these past few years.
We would have struggled against GWS, and been embarrassed by Sydney and Collingwood.
The next test or challenge, is to maintain this against some equally, if not tougher opposition in Essendon, Hawthorn and Geelong. Each week at a time.
 

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