The Farce that is the free kick differential number

[Max zero]

Again, no - I don't think they are bribing umpires or anything of that nature - nobody seriously believes that, surely.

Greatest fans on Earth, if you want to slant it that way. All the booing and ball!ing I believe has an impact that may be reflected in those numbers. Is it the entire issue, don't know. Is it "being more disciplined" not IMO, it's the ones that are 50/50 and it goes your way, whereas that 50/50 call is more likely to not go our way in very similar situations.

Noise of affirmation I believe, is a thing. Do you think so? what is your reasoning for the data?

Maybe it is the 'Noise of Affirmation.'

Why is it that only WC fans have this ability? If they do have such an ability what exactly can the AFL do about it?

While I was joking about the AFL investigation say they do have one and it concludes that WC crowds influence the umpires. Whats the AFL going to do? Instruct the umpires to not be influenced? They already do that now as part of umpire training. They have probably already mentioned it again since this issue gets brought up every time WCE seem to be playing well. Is bringing it up yet again going to somehow fix it this time?

The fact is as long as their is no corruption occuring (and no one is seriously claiming there is) there is nothing the AFL can do.

So when people post up numbers like that whats the purpose? What exactly do you want the AFL to do about it?

WC fans can influence the umpires. Melbourne clubs always get the GF on their homeground.

Apparently the AFL can nothing about any of these fairness issues (or does not want to) so I guess we will all just have to suck it up.

 

[Southseas]

Maybe it is the 'Noise of Affirmation.'

Why is it that only WC fans have this ability? If they do have such an ability what exactly can the AFL do about it?

While I was joking about the AFL investigation say they do have one and it concludes that WC crowds influence the umpires. Whats the AFL going to do? Instruct the umpires to not be influence? They already do that now as part of umpire training. They have probably already mentioned again since this issue gets brought up every time WCE seem to be playing well. Is bringing it up again going to somehow fix it this time?

The fact is as long as their is no corruption occuring (and no one is seriously claiming there is) there is nothing the AFL can do.

So when people post up numbers like that whats the purpose? What exactly do you want the AFL to do about it?

WC fans can influence the umpires. Melbourne clubs always get the GF on their homeground.

Apparently the AFL can nothing about any of these fairness issues (or does not want to) so I guess we will all just have to suck it up.

Fk that, I need all the ammunition I can get for banter in Perth, I'ma go on sooking bout it and pointing it out at every opportunity.

 

[Max zero]

Fk that, I need all the ammunition I can get for banter in Perth, I'ma go on sooking bout it and pointing it out at every opportunity.

Go for it.

I'm so used to this topic being brought up I simply embrace it.

If my cheering can actually give my team an edge I am not ashamed I'm proud. It's the other teams supporters who should feel ashamed.

 

[Southseas]

Go for it.

I'm so used to this topic being brought up I simply embrace it.

If my cheering can actually give my team an edge I am not ashamed I'm proud. It's the other teams supporters who should feel ashamed.

kden

 

[kane249]

Doesn’t Margetts sister work for the weagles and was he a groomsmen at Dean Cox’s ( the greatest Free kick merchant) wedding?

Hmmmmm

Its Margetts wife who works at the Eagles and he was Bestman at Cox's wedding, if you are going to go with the conspiracy theory at least get the details right man!

(PS it's categorically wrong on both counts, just a rumour that became gospel at one point to some)

 

[The Falcon Strike]

Got no idea. If it was any other side it would still be an issue. Please don't think I have it out for your side. I don't know what the reasons are for it but it is a trend if it's happened every year for the last 16 years.

I mean the difference between West Coast and Sydney is remarkable. Something clearly wrong if there's such a massive disparity between 1 and 18.

Not necessarily

Personally I think noise of affirmation is bollocks. We don’t see it with freo or say Collingwood

So IMO there’s a couple of options

* some (quite a few) umpires are biased (consciously or sub conciously)
* the eagles deliberately train to the rules
* the eagles have a game style that lends itself to a favourable count

I could be wrong - but I don’t think we actually get that many more free kicks than the rest of the comp

Where we “stand out” is that we give a hell of a lot less away - hence the differential

I understand the count is interesting and it does appear statistically significant - but it remains possible the result is a fair reflection of the games played

 

[nurries]

Its Margetts wife who works at the Eagles and he was Bestman at Cox's wedding, if you are going to go with the conspiracy theory at least get the details right man!

(PS it's categorically wrong on both counts, just a rumour that became gospel at one point to some)

Ssshhhhh don’t tell anyone

 

[Nolo180]

First time i've ever heard a weagle mention there might be a subconscious bias with the umpiring! Weve been saying it for years.
When 2 of the 3 central umpires are usually west australian and wc is by far the more heavily supported club in wa due to its earleir establishment and success it makes sense that umpires would lean in wce direction subconsciously when making decisions.
That and the fact the self righteous home ground supporter base demand frees and are scathing when they dont get them also exaggerates the situation.
And then there was the ducking era. Wc had there fair share of them boosting the numbers.
The sooner the umpires go full time and declare any allegiences as supporters to particular clubs the sooner these numbers even up imo.
Lol just lol.

Good work george!

 

[Tsongkie]

The message from AFL House is loud and clear - West Coast's success this year was not part of the AFL plan and is to be stopped, discretely of course.

It boils down to the AFL locking in the Grand Final at the MCG despite overwhelming interstate opposition. Throw in to the mix a new world class stadium that finally offers itself up as a viable alternative to the MCG, record crowds at WCE games and an over-performing WCE team, and suddenly questions are being raised to the AFL about transparency, appropriateness, fairness, etc. among other issues.

This campaign sends a strong message to umpires that it's open-season when it comes to adjudicating WCE games. Dear Umpires, if you don't deliver the right decisions at the right time, for the right team, you may find yourself refereeing in the VFL next year.

AFL affiliates (FOX Footy, Triple M Foot, SEN, Foxtel Syndicated shows, etc...) that rely on AFL media accreditation must go along with it or fear loss of access at press conferences, official events, club room access, etc, not too mention many of the hosts and guests on these shows emanate from Victorian clubs with inherent biases.

 

[Ceanag]

The message from AFL House is loud and clear - West Coast's success this year was not part of the AFL plan and is to be stopped, discretely of course.

It boils down to the AFL locking in the Grand Final at the MCG despite overwhelming interstate opposition. Throw in to the mix a new world class stadium that finally offers itself up as a viable alternative to the MCG, record crowds at WCE games and an over-performing WCE team, and suddenly questions are being raised to the AFL about transparency, appropriateness, fairness, etc. among other issues.

This campaign sends a strong message to umpires that it's open-season when it comes to adjudicating WCE games. Dear Umpires, if you don't deliver the right decisions at the right time, for the right team, you may find yourself refereeing in the VFL next year.

AFL affiliates (FOX Footy, Triple M Foot, SEN, Foxtel Syndicated shows, etc...) that rely on AFL media accreditation must go along with it or fear loss of access at press conferences, official events, club room access, etc, not too mention many of the hosts and guests on these shows emanate from Victorian clubs with inherent biases.

All this is no more than WC deserve ... Free ride for too long ..time to put the heat on and even things out a bit.

 

[Yamumluvsbigcox]

Wce playing well is definitely not part of the afl play book this year . It was ment to be GWS . Now GWS are screwed its Melbourne's turn for the narrative to boost to a flag

 

[Yippy Yi Yeo]

Can't be a gameplay style because it's been happening for too long. Different personnel. I think home ground advantage does play a part but I think it's silly to assume that's the reason. An AFL investigation would be a good thing I reckon.

Well actually it can be, gameplans evolve and throughout the entire period we've had dominant key position players, low tackle counts, zone defense, and a period involving a lot of ducking/shrugging.

For some reason you keep ignoring these facts while simply harping on about some raw numbers. Like the other poster said, you've provided the data so what's your hypothesis? The data is meaningless without one.

We can rule out the strong one eyed fan base as it isn't reflected by other teams with similar fan bases.

If you want to naively dismiss the gamestyle/personnel argument again without considering the facts then all you're left with is AFL/umpire corruption, which for whatever strange reasons only benefits west coast?

You're talking a lot but you're not actually saying anything, are you?

Also while you're up george, why don't you go and break down the total differentials into home and away so we can see whether it's only at home that west coast have a good relative differential, or whether it's away too. It'd help you figure out if indeed it is a gamestyle/personnel thing or not.

 

[George]

Well actually it can be, gameplans evolve and throughout the entire period we've had dominant key position players, low tackle counts, zone defense, and a period involving a lot of ducking/shrugging.

For some reason you keep ignoring these facts while simply harping on about some raw numbers. Like the other poster said, you've provided the data so what's your hypothesis? The data is meaningless without one.

We can rule out the strong one eyed fan base as it isn't reflected by other teams with similar fan bases.

If you want to naively dismiss the gamestyle/personnel argument again without considering the facts then all you're left with is AFL/umpire corruption, which for whatever strange reasons only benefits west coast?

You're talking a lot but you're not actually saying anything, are you?

Also while you're up george, why don't you go and break down the total differentials into home and away so we can see whether it's only at home that west coast have a good relative differential, or whether it's away too. It'd help you figure out if indeed it is a gamestyle/personnel thing or not.

https://thearcfooty.com/2016/04/23/freekicksathome/

It's not personnel. The game has changed multiple times since 2003. West Coast in 2005/2006 weren't the same West Coast today, neither was any other side.

Every team in the league has fluctuated except them and to an extent North Melbourne.

I think it's a silly point to make.

I don't have an answer as to why one team gets nearly 500 free kicks more than the next, and in Sydney's case over 1300, but I'd probably say it's got nothing to do with game style.

 

[George]

Not necessarily

Personally I think noise of affirmation is bollocks. We don’t see it with freo or say Collingwood

So IMO there’s a couple of options

* some (quite a few) umpires are biased (consciously or sub conciously)
* the eagles deliberately train to the rules
* the eagles have a game style that lends itself to a favourable count

I could be wrong - but I don’t think we actually get that many more free kicks than the rest of the comp

Where we “stand out” is that we give a hell of a lot less away - hence the differential

I understand the count is interesting and it does appear statistically significant - but it remains possible the result is a fair reflection of the games played

Your reasons hold much more validity than others that have posted here IMO, so thanks for that. I think it's a bit of umpire bias, crowd noise, and maybe some luck...but gee wizz a difference that big? We've got to be asking some questions. Like I said if you take the team out of it (clearly Eagles fans will and should hold some bias) it's a pretty big gap. In such an even competition this really does stand out.

 

[kane249]

"Even competition" is a relative term given there is factors like travel, COLA, academies etc which don't exactly result in a level playing field either.

 

[Mat Mann]

I didn't say that.

My point was that people get hot under the collar deflecting a loss on to the umpires based on the free kick count when the numbers themselves can be deceptive. Remove "advantage" kicks, add 50m penalties, factor in goals from frees and that's before free kicks not paid that should have been.

But easier to grasp on to the raw free kick count if you lose to avoid blaming the real reasons for a loss.

I know a few folks think that the loss was due to the umps, I don't, WC were too good when it mattered, but that doesn't change the fact that the umps had a direct hand in awarding ( or not awarding ) at least 5 goals that were contentious, all of which went WC's way. Does WC get out to that 43 point lead? Is it the crowd, I don't think so, is WC directly influencing the Umps, wouldn't believe it could be done, but to deny such big discrepancies over such an long period and pass it off as game style or personnel is crazy.

I read lots of St Kilda is crap, you've only one 1 game blah blah blah, when WC won the spoon in 2010 with 4 wins at 77%, they still manage to have a +77 fk differential, so clearly being a s**t team and second to the ball has f all to do with that. Game style certainly has an impact to the FK differential, 2010 GF teams were Coll (-2) and StK (-60).

we need to look at Carlton as well, they've been tripe the last decade and only lost the count twice in the last 15 years, again proof? that poor sides don't equal negative FK differential

anomalies exist, but the WC anomaly............. the only side to of not had a negative FK differential in the comp for 15 years.

edit to add, is it an issue WC need to address,, hell no, take whatever advantage you can get, its an umpiring issue, for whatever reason, away teams at WC are treated differently

 

[The Falcon Strike]

I know a few folks think that the loss was due to the umps, I don't, WC were too good when it mattered, but that doesn't change the fact that the umps had a direct hand in awarding ( or not awarding ) at least 5 goals that were contentious, all of which went WC's way. Does WC get out to that 43 point lead? Is it the crowd, I don't think so, is WC directly influencing the Umps, wouldn't believe it could be done, but to deny such big discrepancies over such an long period and pass it off as game style or personnel is crazy.

I read lots of St Kilda is crap, you've only one 1 game blah blah blah, when WC won the spoon in 2010 with 4 wins at 77%, they still manage to have a +77 fk differential, so clearly being a s**t team and second to the ball has f all to do with that. Game style certainly has an impact to the FK differential, 2010 GF teams were Coll (-2) and StK (-60).

we need to look at Carlton as well, they've been tripe the last decade and only lost the count twice in the last 15 years, again proof? that poor sides don't equal negative FK differential

anomalies exist, but the WC anomaly............. the only side to of not had a negative FK differential in the comp for 15 years.

edit to add, is it an issue WC need to address,, hell no, take whatever advantage you can get, its an umpiring issue, for whatever reason, away teams at WC are treated differently

Have you got the stats of free kicks received over that time frame?

So not differentials - just ave free kicks per game

 

[Yamumluvsbigcox]

"Even competition" is a relative term given there is factors like travel, COLA, academies etc which don't exactly result in a level playing field either.

Mcg grand final is probably the biggest inequality for interstate teams

 

[B4Bear]

Mcg grand final is probably the biggest inequality for interstate teams

Not quite. If you are going down the 'lack of exposure to the MCG' route, then I would suggest that non-MCG tenants have exactly the same problem.

North get to play there once this year. And it has been the same for years. So whilst it may be a factor, and I am not saying it is either way. It should be considered a factor for Melbourne based teams too.

In fact if it was a West Coast/North Grand Final, it would be a truly neutral venue.

Gil, make it happen.

 

[caitsith01]

So it's either:

a) A structual gameplay style that WC have over a number of years
b) WCE fans have been intimidating every AFL umpire for the last 10 years (and therefore are the greatest fans on earth)
c) WCE have some underhanded deal with the AFL/umpires association

Those are the only 3 possibilities that can explain the current situation. Which one is it? Do we need an AFL investigation?

The bolded one doesn't work, because it fails to address why this only occurs at Optus/Subiaco. It can't be the shape/size of the ground, given that the advantage is still there in 2018 with a radically different shape which is much closer to the MCG.

(c) is stupid, obviously. (b) is a straw man, because you don't have to have every umpire be affected by something for there to be a consistent long term trend.

 

[caitsith01]

So IMO there’s a couple of options

* some (quite a few) umpires are biased (consciously or sub conciously)
* the eagles deliberately train to the rules
* the eagles have a game style that lends itself to a favourable count

I could be wrong - but I don’t think we actually get that many more free kicks than the rest of the comp

Your second two options don't explain why the Eagles get this advantage principally when they play in WA, regardless of whether it's Subiaco or Optus. See my earlier post demonstrating that the Eagles have a massive positive differential in WA, but a slight negative differential at all other grounds.

 

[Jootube]

The bolded one doesn't work, because it fails to address why this only occurs at Optus/Subiaco. It can't be the shape/size of the ground, given that the advantage is still there in 2018 with a radically different shape which is much closer to the MCG.

(c) is stupid, obviously. (b) is a straw man, because you don't have to have every umpire be affected by something for there to be a consistent long term trend.

So our crowd is so loud that we intimidate *some* umpires, but the Cats can't do it in Geelong, Freo can't do it in Perth and the Crows and Port can't do it in Adelaide?

What's the conclusion?

 

[Max zero]

The bolded one doesn't work, because it fails to address why this only occurs at Optus/Subiaco. It can't be the shape/size of the ground, given that the advantage is still there in 2018 with a radically different shape which is much closer to the MCG.

(c) is stupid, obviously. (b) is a straw man, because you don't have to have every umpire be affected by something for there to be a consistent long term trend.

So the reason is? Only a couple of umpires are biased?

We don't always have the same umpires in Perth.

 

[Max zero]

https://thearcfooty.com/2016/04/23/freekicksathome/

It's not personnel. The game has changed multiple times since 2003. West Coast in 2005/2006 weren't the same West Coast today, neither was any other side.

Every team in the league has fluctuated except them and to an extent North Melbourne.

I think it's a silly point to make.

I don't have an answer as to why one team gets nearly 500 free kicks more than the next, and in Sydney's case over 1300, but I'd probably say it's got nothing to do with game style.

So basically you got nothing. Just numbers with nothing behind them.

What exactly do you want the AFL to do?

 

[George]

So basically you got nothing. Just numbers with nothing behind them.

What exactly do you want the AFL to do?

No idea why you're defending the umpires.

What do I want them to do? I want them to look into it. If a team has 500 more free kicks than anyone else wouldn't you want the same? Leave your bias out of it.