Mega Thread The Father-Son Mega thread - 2019

bumsonseats

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The only way we might not draft him is if he gets a bid before 12 (factoring in GWS matching on Green). This is unlikely, but with our 20% F/S discount, us match Pick 10 (e.g.) is equivilent to Pick 15 (on points). So if we consider him better than a pick 15, we should draft him. I think that our pick 12 would be downgraded to about pick 68 if we use it on Finn at pick 10, so we get Finn and Pick 68 selction for our Pick 12.
Is this right experts?
Pretty sure any residual points are added to your next pick and you move up in the draft order.

For example, if Finn was bid on at 10:
Pick 10 worth1395 less 20% = 1116.

We have pick 11, which will become 12 with Green (GWS Academy). Pick 12 worth 1268 pts.

Residual: 1268 less 1116 = 152

The 152 points are added to our next pick - which at that stage will be pick 31. Pick 31 = 606 points + 152 = 758.

758 points equates to pick 25 (756 points).

So we give up pick 11, get Finn and move up fm 31 to 25.

Anyone have a different interpretation
 
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bumsonseats

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So next question is where does the bid need to come for pick 30 to get the job done.

Pick 30 will become pick 31 with Green, and likely pick 32 with the Freo Academy player (Henry I think it is).
But if we work it on having pick 31:

We have Pick 31 = 606

Discounted points (in brackets) for each pick as follows:
Pick 23:815 (652)
Pick 24: 785 (628)
Pick25: 756 (605)
Pick 26: 729 (583)
Pick 27: 703 (562)

So if a bid comes at 25 we can cover it in full with our pick at (currently) 30.

If bid comes at 20, we would give up 31 and 43, and pick 63 would move up in the order to about 51.
 

Luv_our_club

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very astute observation, there is hype but recruiters will remember his limited game and his performances. When he was up against Rowell and Anderson's midfield in a final, he only found 13 touches and without the ball in hand, only managed the 2 tackles. He doesn't have a real identity as a footballer yet as Luv said, he not only needs to develop but decide his role in a team.
With Finn, I love that he really really loves Hawthorn. (Noah Anderson doesn't even barrack for the Hawks).

His love for the club makes it hard not to want him at any cost, despite the fact i think he is an early third rounder prospect on talent alone.

GC have two picks between 15 and 20. I can see them bidding on Finn, so he and Rowel and Ando become a happy group together in Qland. That worries me.

If i was any club, i wouldn't put in a bid until close to 30 or after.
 

bumsonseats

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With Finn, I love that he really really loves Hawthorn. (Noah Anderson doesn't even barrack for the Hawks).

His love for the club makes it hard not to want him at any cost, despite the fact i think he is an early third rounder prospect on talent alone.

GC have two picks between 15 and 20. I can see them bidding on Finn, so he and Rowel and Ando become a happy group together in Qland. That worries me.

If i was any club, i wouldn't put in a bid until close to 30 or after.
Wishful thinking....
I’d say he is significantly better than an early 3rd rounder. So long as the bid comes after pick 11 I don’t really care. And even if it does then I think we will pay the price.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we get involved in some live trading on draft night if Finn slides out towards 20+ If there is something there we like.
We have our 2020 first rounder which we can swap with a 2020 2nd and something in this draft.
 

Bumps"N"Grins

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With Finn, I love that he really really loves Hawthorn. (Noah Anderson doesn't even barrack for the Hawks).

His love for the club makes it hard not to want him at any cost, despite the fact i think he is an early third rounder prospect on talent alone.

GC have two picks between 15 and 20. I can see them bidding on Finn, so he and Rowel and Ando become a happy group together in Qland. That worries me.

If i was any club, i wouldn't put in a bid until close to 30 or after.
So long as any bid on Finn comes after our first pick (11) I'm okay with it.

Nice work on crunching numbers bumsonseats :thumbsu:
 

Luv_our_club

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Wishful thinking....
I’d say he is significantly better than an early 3rd rounder. So long as the bid comes after pick 11 I don’t really care. And even if it does then I think we will pay the price.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we get involved in some live trading on draft night if Finn slides out towards 20+ If there is something there we like.
We have our 2020 first rounder which we can swap with a 2020 2nd and something in this draft.
What i said depressed me. How is it wishfull?

My wishful thinking is that we get Finn and i am wrong about him. I also hope clubs don't bid on him early just because they want to push us to nominate him (that normally doesn't happen, normally it is the opposite and FS/academy picks slide).

Either way, Finn could go between around 15 and 40. He is one of the most difficult players to place. My view on him is diff to some phantom drafts who wants him to go before 11.


If we have to get him at pick 15, then it might not be a problem for us, just expensive.
 
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bumsonseats

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What i said depressed me. How is it wishfull?

My wishful thinking is that we get Finn and i am wrong about him. I also hope clubs don't bid on him early just because they want to push us to nominate him (that normally doesn't happen, normally it is the opposite and FS/academy picks slide).

Either way, Finn could go between around 15 and 40. He is one of the most difficult players to place. My view on him is diff to some phantom drafts who wants him to go before 11.


If we have to get him at pick 15, then it might not be a problem for us, just expensive.
I don’t think there is anything to be depressed about. Finn has been on a steep upward trajectory in the last 12 months or so. Plenty of upside.

Wishful thinking that he is an early 3rd rounder at best and if you were another club you wouldn’t bid before pick 30.

Fully expect a bid before pick 20, but hopefully (and most likely) after our first pick at 11. We get a first round talent with a late 2nd and mid 3rd. Nothing to sneeze at
 

Brant

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I don’t think there is anything to be depressed about. Finn has been on a steep upward trajectory in the last 12 months or so. Plenty of upside.

Wishful thinking that he is an early 3rd rounder at best and if you were another club you wouldn’t bid before pick 30.

Fully expect a bid before pick 20,
but hopefully (and most likely) after our first pick at 11. We get a first round talent with a late 2nd and mid 3rd. Nothing to sneeze at
I don't get this bit?
 

Bugs1977

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I don’t think there is anything to be depressed about. Finn has been on a steep upward trajectory in the last 12 months or so. Plenty of upside.

Wishful thinking that he is an early 3rd rounder at best and if you were another club you wouldn’t bid before pick 30.

Fully expect a bid before pick 20, but hopefully (and most likely) after our first pick at 11. We get a first round talent with a late 2nd and mid 3rd. Nothing to sneeze at
I reckon Finn will go somewhere from 15-25 and I’m fine with that. If this kid stays on the same trajectory as his 2019 season then we’ll have a serious player on our hands if we select him.
 

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sohsam

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I don’t think there is anything to be depressed about. Finn has been on a steep upward trajectory in the last 12 months or so. Plenty of upside.

Wishful thinking that he is an early 3rd rounder at best and if you were another club you wouldn’t bid before pick 30.

Fully expect a bid before pick 20, but hopefully (and most likely) after our first pick at 11. We get a first round talent with a late 2nd and mid 3rd. Nothing to sneeze at
That is what I am worried about giving up last 2nd / mid 3rd, that is where we have done our best work in recent times, see sicily/Stratton/Worpel/Puopolo. Having said that if the recruitment team want to take the safe option or really do not know of other good value options later in the draft, then that is fine.
 

Chioli

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First genuine concern from a few is the Blues but I can’t see Sos bidding on Finn. They want a small forward and there will be nice ones there at 9. Freo at 10 is no concern either. If Kemp is there at 11 I think we will take him and get Finn when the Suns bid on him.
 

Bugs1977

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AFL Phantom draft now has the Blues bidding on Finn at #9. How does we all feel about this and who thinks we’d still take him if this was to happen? Personally I’m not 100% sold we will take him if a bid comes that high.

 

Davo-27

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AFL Phantom draft now has the Blues bidding on Finn at #9. How does we all feel about this and who thinks we’d still take him if this was to happen? Personally I’m not 100% sold we will take him if a bid comes that high.

thats the roar a northern NSW newspaper website if im not mistaken? mostly concerning Rugby and Rugby League for context.

if there is a bid before 11 im not 100% sure if we match it?
 

Bugs1977

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thats the roar a northern NSW newspaper website if im not mistaken? mostly concerning Rugby and Rugby League for context.

if there is a bid before 11 im not 100% sure if we match it?
A bid before 11 for Finn would be disastrous IMO but I really don’t think it will happen. I think there will definitely be team that takes Kemp in the top 10 so and there should be a couple of others taken before him too. It will be stressful times until it’s all played out though but I trust our guys not to let emotion get in the way.
 

Baz_hawk

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Why do F/S selections get the same treatment as academy players? I would have thought a F/S is an earnt right to access a club and should be greatly discounted. Haven't followed the law changes in this area but when did it go from being a final selection in the draft thing to being a bidding system?
 

Davo-27

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A bid before 11 for Finn would be disastrous IMO but I really don’t think it will happen. I think there will definitely be team that takes Kemp in the top 10 so and there should be a couple of others taken before him too. It will be stressful times until it’s all played out though but I trust our guys not to let emotion get in the way.
i like Finn Maginness but averaging 20 disposals for the season and getting 13 disposals in the biggest game of the year for him, a Prelim Final where he wasnt tagged, he just played poorly doesnt scream top 10 potential to me, if a club takes him then we have access to some good talent that they have passed on.
 

moginie

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While I understand why we're all keen to see Finn go between 15-25, just to chuck it out there what if nobody bids on him until our second round pick? Do/should we take him or then do we have enough points at pick 42 to get him?

Let's not just think one way here.
 

MrPremiership

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While I understand why we're all keen to see Finn go between 15-25, just to chuck it out there what if nobody bids on him until our second round pick? Do/should we take him or then do we have enough points at pick 42 to get him?

Let's not just think one way here.
IF a bid comes at pick 31, that's 606 points. We would then get the fixed 197 point discount (its only 20% discount for 1st round picks), so we would require 409 points to match.

Our next pick is at 42, that's 395 points, so we would also need to use pick 54 (220 points) to match the bid, and we'd get pick 56 back.



So in summary, if a bid comes after our pick 30, we would need our next 2 picks to match, so still very easily done.
 

moginie

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IF a bid comes at pick 31, that's 606 points. We would then get the fixed 197 point discount (its only 20% discount for 1st round picks), so we would require 409 points to match.

Our next pick is at 42, that's 395 points, so we would also need to use pick 54 (220 points) to match the bid, and we'd get pick 56 back.



So in summary, if a bid comes after our pick 30, we would need our next 2 picks to match, so still very easily done.
And to me, that is the best case scenario.
 

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