The Facts and Fiction Thread

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Giant Strides said:
http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/how...m/news-story/1c9d3e4c2c1b1088f34d795b4cde517f

Even the computers have drunk the Kool-Aid!
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I think I resent all the pressure of expectation around the club. I worry about underperforming.
Then I think about Carlton supporters and Lion's supporters that are going to turn up to cheer for their team this year regardless, and I feel like it's disrespecting them in a wierd way.
So it's go the Giants dominate the season make them grovel in september
 
Wampeter said:
I think I resent all the pressure of expectation around the club. I worry about underperforming.
Then I think about Carlton supporters and Lion's supporters that are going to turn up to cheer for their team this year regardless, and I feel like it's disrespecting them in a wierd way.
So it's go the Giants dominate the season make them grovel in september
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My thoughts are.


b19cea7e2105db3aa6299f6a06311864.jpg


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I don't think it's unreasonable for us to be premiership favourites and I think calling out every article that has us as such is a bit silly.

Looking over the teams I can easily see how you come to that conclusion - Bulldogs seem fluky (winning from 7th, barely beat us), Swans are always underrated as people expect them to drop off, Hawthorn are dropping off, West Coast can't win consistently and Geelong seem to have dropped off as well. Other teams like Melbourne or the Saints are still on the way up, while we've actually improved our list in a "win now" sense with the addition of Deledio and no real 2016 best 22 players leaving.

However I do dispute the narrative that it's "our's to lose". I think that is massively overstating matters and unrealistic. We haven't made a GF, our depth is slowly being chipped away, and there's any number of injuries that could seriously compromise our year.
 
dlanod said:
I don't think it's unreasonable for us to be premiership favourites and I think calling out every article that has us as such is a bit silly.

Looking over the teams I can easily see how you come to that conclusion - Bulldogs seem fluky (winning from 7th, barely beat us), Swans are always underrated as people expect them to drop off, Hawthorn are dropping off, West Coast can't win consistently and Geelong seem to have dropped off as well. Other teams like Melbourne or the Saints are still on the way up, while we've actually improved our list in a "win now" sense with the addition of Deledio and no real 2016 best 22 players leaving.

However I do dispute the narrative that it's "our's to lose". I think that is massively overstating matters and unrealistic. We haven't made a GF, our depth is slowly being chipped away, and there's any number of injuries that could seriously compromise our year.
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I get it, but not the fluke thing about the Bulldogs. They travelled around the country winning elimination game 4 weeks in a row. I cant call that a fluke. I get you're talking about perceptions but not sure how many people could actually beleive it was a fluke.
:DHopefully they have a shocker this year and our new overlord is on duty with his more experienced partner in the gameday threads this year.
 
Wampeter said:
I get it, but not the fluke thing about the Bulldogs. They travelled around the country winning elimination game 4 weeks in a row. I cant call that a fluke. I get you're talking about perceptions but not sure how many people could actually beleive it was a fluke.
:DHopefully they have a shocker this year and our new overlord is on duty with his more experienced partner in the gameday threads this year.
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Four games is not a big sample size. Plenty of teams have looked like world beaters in a four game sample size - it's just that the Bulldogs happened to get hot at the right point in the season.

No one can take that away from them and good on them, but is it likely that those four games are the "true" Bulldogs or the 26 games in total in which they won 75% of their games instead of 100%. Win 75% of your games in the finals series and you don't win the premiership.

If they back it up again with a solid effort this year, it'll be a different story because that sample size will keep getting bigger.

Examples of misleading four game samples:

Brisbane started 2010 on fire, winning four straight, at the top of the table, including beating two eventual finalists. They won three more for the year.

Looking at the NFL, the Ravens went through 2012 as a fairly average team, got hot at the right time and won four straight games to win the Super Bowl. Sound familiar?
 
dlanod said:
Four games is not a big sample size. Plenty of teams have looked like world beaters in a four game sample size - it's just that the Bulldogs happened to get hot at the right point in the season.

No one can take that away from them and good on them, but is it likely that those four games are the "true" Bulldogs or the 26 games in total in which they won 75% of their games instead of 100%. Win 75% of your games in the finals series and you don't win the premiership.

If they back it up again with a solid effort this year, it'll be a different story because that sample size will keep getting bigger.

Examples of misleading four game samples:

Brisbane started 2010 on fire, winning four straight, at the top of the table, including beating two eventual finalists. They won three more for the year.

Looking at the NFL, the Ravens went through 2012 as a fairly average team, got hot at the right time and won four straight games to win the Super Bowl. Sound familiar?
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Hmmm
It just opinion but I think we view the game and sport in general.fundamentally differently. I think we've had the same discussion before but with different details. I'm at risk of putting words in you mouth so feel free to rebut amd I will accept it, but I think you see the results as rationally explainable and I think emotion plays a real part.

For the Bulldogs I dismiss with contempt the notion they lostpoint rnd 9 becuase of injuries when they had 22 fit players and we lost 2 key backs in the 1st qtr. I also beleive both teams knew what was at stake in the finals and they lifted their intensity from the H/A season to win them. I dont think that's a fluke.
Bottom line is I dont think all games are equal.

An example I can say that in 1989 I watched the GF and it never seriously occurred to me rhe Hawks would lose despite all the visual evidence on the screen it was a risk of happening. I will never change that view.
Conversely I did not believe a team that had won three flags in a row would go out in straight sets after finishing second.
:(I get I'm not always right
Not gonna change though so I think we'ĺl never agree. I get you know what your talking about and have learnt heaps from reading your posts, I'm too old and dont want to make Footy a science cos I would enjoy it less.
 
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Not saying it will happen but in the unlikely event of a win on Saturday I can see lots of trolling going on both here and the main board
And I am sure in the event of a loss the coaching thread will be back and also others on some of the players but I will be happy for the tigers because they will deserve to be in the GF and I am sure the supporters have been coping it from the other Melbourne clubs for over 30 years will be in a great mood for the week
 
General Giant said:
Well one of our usual troll muppets has started up his garbage.


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as was quickly pointed out to him - we averaged 13,600 at spotless last year.

I mean, he's a f@#&ing mathematician. he's supposed to understand numbers.

last time I looked. 12,000 was NOT "better" than 13,600 - but then, I'm not a world class mathematician, so what do I know...
 
I doubt there is a need for this thread this year

I reckon most people "scared" of the drafting picks think we would have won one by now.

Surely with how the list has balanced out and the Dogs and Tigers flags, opposition supporters will chill out a bit this year

Maybe

I think gold coast are going to be a hell of a lot better this year

I tip them to make the 8 and go under everyone's radar
Ohhhhhhh the concessions

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