The fight for 8th

[Adz]

West Coast
Geelong
Sydney
Richmond
GWS
Port
Melbourne
Adelaide

Collingwood aren’t missing and Geelong isn’t getting anywhere near the top 4.

 

[PAFC_1870]

They’ve beaten no one this year.

Except North, Sydney and Crows...

Who has Melbourne ,North and Collingwood beaten?

 

[threesixpio]

I waver thinking about our chances but Cyril is back soon and he will make our forwardline way better

GWS and Crows are much better teams than their performance suggests. Port not far behind either. Supporters of the other three teams should be livid.

We’re rebuilding and are unlikely thinking we are a chance this year. In four weeks time I’ll likely suggest we are a flag chance just to annoy people. It will be fun

 

[Snake_Baker]

https://predictor.squiggle.com.au/

Geeelong first up, then the loser of Richmond v Sydney. Suits me fine.

 

[juss]

Geeelong first up, then the loser of Richmond v Sydney. Suits me fine.

View attachment 506803

Dont think youd beat Geelong in a final. Definetely not if its played in Geelong, although more than likely would be MCG.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Dont think youd beat Geelong in a final. Definetely not if its played in Geelong, although more than likely would be MCG.

I didn't factor in playing them there, but who knows what the AFL would do?

I'm confident we could give them a good run in a final. I acknowledge their top core, but I reckon our overall talent spread is better.

Of course, availability of near to our best 22 is a crucial factor.

 

[Holy Rioli]

Geeelong first up, then the loser of Richmond v Sydney. Suits me fine.

View attachment 506803

Geelong have Richmond (x2), Melbourne, Sydney (away), Adelaide (away), North, Hawks in 7 of their final 11 games. Not that I think they'll lose all 7, but are a very good chance to lose 4-5 of those games. Not sure how you got them to 15 wins.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Geelong have Richmond (x2), Melbourne, Sydney (away), Adelaide (away), North, Hawks in 7 of their final 11 games. Not that I think they'll lose all 7, but are a very good chance to lost 4-5 of those games. Not sure how you got them to 15 wins.

I used that silly squiggle thing. It's just a very random hypothesis.

 

[Holy Rioli]

I used that silly squiggle thing. It's just a very random hypothesis.

fair enough. 9 of our final 11 games are against teams not in the 8 - so I think we are a good chance to pick up 14 wins total (8 out of the last 11) as well. I'd be surprised if North didn't get to 14 too.

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

This thread is going to be so much fun when Collingwood miss the 8

 

[jakson68]

With the top 7 all but confirmed we have the following battling it out for the last spot:
Crows
Hawks
Power
Giants

Who is most likely to make it out of these sides?

Oh Adz why? Just why?

 

[StillAtLarge]

None of us have any idea what's going to happen, it's just too tight a season. The only guarantees in my view are the Eagles finishing top 4, the Tiges playing finals and the current bottom 7 missing out. Everything else is up in the air

 

[Cincinnatus]

With the top 7 all but confirmed we have the following battling it out for the last spot:
Crows
Hawks
Power
Giants

Who is most likely to make it out of these sides?

I think you meant to put Adelaide in with the group fighting for last spot on the ladder, not in the 8.

 

[Marmozet]

Port not making it would be the end of Hinkley.

We extended Hinkley until the end of 2021

 

[Pykie]

fair enough. 9 of our final 11 games are against teams not in the 8 - so I think we are a good chance to pick up 14 wins total (8 out of the last 11) as well. I'd be surprised if North didn't get to 14 too.

North have:

Geelong (GMHBA) - 50/50
Bulldogs (Etihad) - W
Bombers (Etihad) - W
Gold Coast (Etihad) - W
Sydney (Etihad) - 50/50
Pies (MCG) - 50/50
Eagles (Hobart) - 50/50
Lions (Gabba) - W
Bulldogs (Etihad) - W
Crows (AO) - 50/50
Saints (Etihad) - W


That is a ridiculously good draw to run home 6/11 games at Etihad and another 2 in Hobart and the MCG.

I see us with a minimum of 13 wins, with those 50/50's in play. 14 and percentage might get you top 4, 15 will definitely get top 4.

Geelong this week and Sydney in a month will probably define 4th.

 

[evo]

What about bombers?

lol

 

[didaksrightfoot]

This thread is going to be so much fun when Collingwood miss the 8

just want to point out that this guy does not speak for all Collingwood supporters

 

[Wojcinski]

North have:

Geelong (GMHBA) - L
Bulldogs (Etihad) - 50/50
Bombers (Etihad) - 50/50
Gold Coast (Etihad) - W
Sydney (Etihad) - L
Pies (MCG) - 50/50
Eagles (Hobart) - L
Lions (Gabba) - W
Bulldogs (Etihad) - 50/50
Crows (AO) - L
Saints (Etihad) - W


That is a ridiculously good draw to run home 6/11 games at Etihad and another 2 in Hobart and the MCG.

I see us with a minimum of 13 wins, with those 50/50's in play. 14 and percentage might get you top 4, 15 will definitely get top 4.

Geelong this week and Sydney in a month will probably define 4th.

EFA

 

[Pykie]

EFA

We beat Sydney a month ago at the SCG. I don't know how the return game at Etihad is definitely a loss.


I think we are going a little bit better than expecting the 14th placed Dog's games to be 50/50 games at this stage tbh.

 

[hawkman]

North have:

Geelong (GMHBA) - 50/50
Bulldogs (Etihad) - W
Bombers (Etihad) - W
Gold Coast (Etihad) - W
Sydney (Etihad) - 50/50
Pies (MCG) - 50/50
Eagles (Hobart) - 50/50
Lions (Gabba) - W
Bulldogs (Etihad) - W
Crows (AO) - 50/50
Saints (Etihad) - W


That is a ridiculously good draw to run home 6/11 games at Etihad and another 2 in Hobart and the MCG.

That would be a pretty standard draw for most of the top teams, maybe 1 extra game against the bottom 7

 

[Pykie]

That would be a pretty standard draw for most of the top teams, maybe 1 extra game against the bottom 7

According to the Herald Sun and CD its the best draw in the league on the run home.

So no, it's not like everyone elses.

 

[hawkman]

According to the Herald Sun and CD its the best draw in the league on the run home.

So no, it's not like everyone elses.

Really? I would have our draw before that

Adelaide - MCG
Gold Coast - Aurora
GWS - Spotless
Bulldogs - Etihad
Brisbane - Aurora
Carlton - Etihad
Fremantle - Optus
Essendon - MCG
Geelong - MCG
St Kilda - Etihad
Sydney - SCG

2 top 8 teams left against Geelong and Sydney and they are genuine 50/50s every time we play.

 

[Strange Cat]

Collingwood aren’t missing and Geelong isn’t getting anywhere near the top 4.

You do realise that both Melb and Syd are a game clear on top of us

Anything can happen

 

[Gone Critical]

Collingwood are currently flattered by our ladder position and a very easy draw so far. We have played 9 of the 10 sides currently outside the 8 and only 2 sides in the 8. We have won 7 of 9 against the out side teams and lost both games against teams in the . Next 11 games include six against teams currently in the 8.

Another way to look at our season so far is we have payed 5 matches against teams 1-11 on the ladder and lost 4 of them. We will have to improve on our first half of the season to make finals. Thats possible but we are a long way from any sort of lock. 50:50 at best and even that is a little optimistic.

 

[Roos Addick]

I used that silly squiggle thing. It's just a very random hypothesis.

Silly! Take that back. Squiggle has us finishing 4th. Squiggle is life.