Fixture The Fixture analysed- Cat Xmas

[ep2018]

Never in the entirety of following footy have I been so unconvinced about the team sitting in top spot heading into a finals series. Geelong are not winning s**t.

 

[theyellowsash]

Its never going to be even or fair unless teams play each other once or twice per season

I love getting stuck into the cats as much as anyone , you could swap those games against bottom sides out and they are still finishing top in a canter this season .

Still reckon they are getting rolled in the prelim though

whats better, them losing in the prelim or the gf?

 

[My Tilly]

We have had a soft finish to the year. Gold Coast and West Coast, this is why we are going to be up against it in that all important qualifying final (if we meet the Magpies).
If we do face them, they would have played a mini final as Carlton will give them a perfect tune up.

Fremantle could have done with a tough finale. West Coast and GWS will not put up much resistance. They likely come out sluggish in their opening final.

 

[Conan Troutman]

Both of those teams are deservedly not going to make finals.

Geelong has been kissed on the d*$k this year. It's just the truth. Doesnt mean you won't win the flag.

The Bulldogs still have a great chance to make it. Arguably a better chance than Carlton.

But that doesn't fit the narrative so well does it?

Look what happens if you remove Carlton from the top 8 and put the Bulldogs in...

Richmond - 7
Brisbane - 8
Collingwood - 8
Fremantle - 8
Geelong - 8
Sydney - 8
Western Bulldogs - 10
Melbourne - 11

That actually looks pretty even! Top team gets the worst run, runners-up get the 2nd worst. And not really any d*$k kissing.

Considering it'll likely come down to one game that decides if it's Carlton or Dogs, and it's one game most of the teams above aren't involved in, you could argue that regardless of the final result, either list holds around the same weight, and therefore your theory doesn't really say much.

 

[FAIRANDBALANCED]

I can agree with that, but can you agree it’s not a conspiracy?

Absolutely, never thought it was. I do find it interesting that Geelong are everyone's clear favs without this being mentioned though.

 

[FAIRANDBALANCED]

The Bulldogs still have a great chance to make it. Arguably a better chance than Carlton.

But that doesn't fit the narrative so well does it?

Look what happens if you remove Carlton from the top 8 and put the Bulldogs in...

Richmond - 7
Brisbane - 8
Collingwood - 8
Fremantle - 8
Geelong - 8
Sydney - 8
Western Bulldogs - 10
Melbourne - 11

That actually looks pretty even! Top team gets the worst run, runners-up get the 2nd worst. And not really any d*$k kissing.

Considering it'll likely come down to one game that decides if it's Carlton or Dogs, and it's one game most of the teams above aren't involved in, you could argue that regardless of the final result, either list holds around the same weight, and therefore your theory doesn't really say much.

Yeah, but you still play West Coast and North twice and Melbourne still play 3 more games against finalists.

 

[Conan Troutman]

Yeah, but you still play West Coast and North twice and Melbourne still play 3 more games against finalists.

And as someone said, it's possible for Geelong to sew up top spot this week, without having played West Coast twice yet.

1 more, or zero. If Bulldogs make it, Melbourne play one more than the Bulldogs.

If Carlton make it, Melb plays the same number as Carlton, and 1 more than Freo and, Pies.

Probably roughly the way it should be - it would be a bit unfair/unbalanced if Geelong (or whoever) played more finalists than Melbourne.

 

[FAIRANDBALANCED]

And as someone said, it's possible for Geelong to sew up top spot this week, without having played West Coast twice yet.

1 more, or zero. If Bulldogs make it, Melbourne play one more than the Bulldogs.

If Carlton make it, Melb plays the same number as Carlton, and 1 more than Freo and, Pies.

Probably roughly the way it should be - it would be a bit unfair/unbalanced if Geelong (or whoever) played more finalists than Melbourne.

Ok this is pretty sweet mental gymnastics, how about not playing two out of the three interstate finalists on their home deck?

 

[BrutThough]

Geelong got lucky with their fixture this year but they haven't finished top because of it. They are playing good enough football that it hasn't mattered who they played twice.

But I'd say fixture difficulty has an impact on the order the middle rung teams finish and which teams get the honour of being demolished week one of the finals.

 

[Conan Troutman]

Ok this is pretty sweet mental gymnastics, how about not playing two out of the three interstate finalists on their home deck?

Dude, I've done no additional gymnastics than you. I simply put a different finalist in (Bulldogs replacing Carlton), and also corrected your stats - with how many more finalists Melbourne play, and that playing West Coast twice hasn't happened yet, so may have no impact at all on the season.

How the hell do you expect the fixture creators to get all this stuff in (interstate finalists)?

You realize how many combinations there are for 8 out of 18 teams?

My maths tell me there's over 40k possible combinations (without repetition), though I likely have messed that up. Either way, you get the point - there's a lot. And that's without considering home ground.

As it is, the outcome if the Bulldogs make it, is pretty damn amazing I think - even changing the fixture on the fly could struggle to make it that even. I'd like to see if any previous seasons have worked out that even.

 

[FAIRANDBALANCED]

Dude, I've done no additional gymnastics than you. I simply put a different finalist in (Bulldogs replacing Carlton), and also corrected your stats - with how many more finalists Melbourne play, and that playing West Coast twice hasn't happened yet, so may have no impact at all on the season.

How the hell do you expect the fixture creators to get all this stuff in (interstate finalists)?

You realize how many combinations there are for 8 out of 18 teams?

My maths tell me there's over 40k possible combinations (without repetition), though I likely have messed that up. Either way, you get the point - there's a lot. And that's without considering home ground.

As it is, the outcome if the Bulldogs make it, is pretty damn amazing I think - even changing the fixture on the fly could struggle to make it that even. I'd like to see if any previous seasons have worked out that even.

Even when you put the Dogs in, the Dees will play 3 more finalists than you. They only play you once, at your home ground. You play the minnows of the season two more times than the Dees and don't play Freo in Perth or Brisbane in Brisbane.

But yeah, even fixture.

 

[NetworkNerd]

Dude, I've done no additional gymnastics than you. I simply put a different finalist in (Bulldogs replacing Carlton), and also corrected your stats - with how many more finalists Melbourne play, and that playing West Coast twice hasn't happened yet, so may have no impact at all on the season.

How the hell do you expect the fixture creators to get all this stuff in (interstate finalists)?

You realize how many combinations there are for 8 out of 18 teams?

My maths tell me there's over 40k possible combinations (without repetition), though I likely have messed that up. Either way, you get the point - there's a lot. And that's without considering home ground.

As it is, the outcome if the Bulldogs make it, is pretty damn amazing I think - even changing the fixture on the fly could struggle to make it that even. I'd like to see if any previous seasons have worked out that even.

Geelong should have played 4 of last years top 6 twice. 4 of Melbourne, Bulldogs, Port, GWS, Brisbane. The other double up would be a rival say Richmond.

Carlton for example had a harder draw. They finished bottom 6 so should have played 4 of Hawthorn, Adelaide, Gold Coast, Collingwood, North Melbourne twice and double up against a rival (Collingwood or Essendon)

 

[Dazb86]

The fixtures not even.

/end thread

 

[Lunchlady Doris]

Also, Geelongs form interstate this year has actually been just ok. Got by Port and West Coast, lost to the Swans and smacked a pretty woeful GWS.

If the Suns are on this week, will be interesting to see how they go.

I dont think anyone could have predicted Geelongs fixture would be easy before the year. But it is easy. Very easy.

Absolutely, never thought it was. I do find it interesting that Geelong are everyone's clear favs without this being mentioned though.

Mate, read the thread, no one thinks Geelong is any good nor going to win the flag.

 

[Lunchlady Doris]

Geelong should have played 4 of last years top 6 twice. 4 of Melbourne, Bulldogs, Port, GWS, Brisbane. The other double up would be a rival say Richmond.

Carlton for example had a harder draw. They finished bottom 6 so should have played 4 of Hawthorn, Adelaide, Gold Coast, Collingwood, North Melbourne twice and double up against a rival (Collingwood or Essendon)

Who has played 4 of last year's top 6 twice? We got Bulldogs, Port? Think GWS twice would make much difference? Beat Melbourne and Brisbane, though Gabba would be tough so luck there.

 

[Ricketz]

Yes I know we never know who the good teams are gonna be, and this isn't to say there is some unfair conspiracy, more just to point out a few realities of the fixture.

Just looking at the likely finalists, this is how many games they will play against other finalists.

Geelong- 7
Sydney- 7
Melbourne- 10
Collingwood- 9
Carlton- 10
Fremantle- 9
Richmond- 8
Brisbane- 8

When we are talking a game or percentage between home finals and not, the above extra games are significant. The other huge outlier this year are the two worst teams being considerably worse than the rest of the comp. This is how many times the finalist play the free kicks West Coast and North (am aware Richmond and Collingwood have lost to these teams, but come on, seriously, they have been woeful all year)

Geelong -4
Sydney -3
Melbourne -2
Collingwood -2
Carlton -2
Fremantle -3
Richmond -3
Brisbane -2

So I guess the biggest discrepancy here is Melbourne play 3 more games against finalists than Geelong and the Cats get 2 extra games against the easy beats. Not saying the cats are phonies, but that is an unbelievable advantage over a 22 game season which I have heard pretty much nothing about. Wouldn't be ruling the Dees out yet.

Well we did do our bit helping the rest of the eight out by knocking Port, WB and Saints out of finals contention.

 

[NetworkNerd]

Who has played 4 of last year's top 6 twice? We got Bulldogs, Port? Think GWS twice would make much difference? Beat Melbourne and Brisbane, though Gabba would be tough so luck there.

Just saying in general. Top 6 of the previous year should play each other twice, same for middle 6 and bottom 6. But because of showdowns/derbies it would only be 4

 

[Ricketz]

Never in the entirety of following footy have I been so unconvinced about the team sitting in top spot heading into a finals series. Geelong are not winning s**t.

What would you know about following footy? Has West Coast played any this year, or did they just rock up to the draft pick handout line?

Seems to me like the Kelly trade drained the bank and now the club is thirsty.

 

[Proper Gander]

No one is ruling the demons out.

Wouldn’t bet on it, mate.

 

[PhatBoy]

Never in the entirety of following footy have I been so unconvinced about the team sitting in top spot heading into a finals series. Geelong are not winning s**t.

What do you think we should have done to please you.

Finished higher on the ladder?

 

[Proper Gander]

More to the point Plugger last Saturday your team had the perfect chance to actually show they have at least more spine than an earthworm playing a Cats team that was missing a heap of players and had late withdrawals, who were all but locked into a top two spot and due for a down week.

All you could do was piss and moan about umpiring that wasn’t even against you.

If all Saints fans were like you it’s no wonder they’ve played barely more finals in their existence than Michael Tuck did in his career: why would you push yourself for a fan base who excuses every failure you have and blames it on someone else?

Settle down Phat.

The OP is just stating facts, not suggesting a fix - and you team look great regardless.

I do get why you are defensive given Bigfooty and all, but you don’t need to be on the lookout for a slur this time

 

[PhatBoy]

Settle down Phat.

The OP is just stating facts, not suggesting a fix - and you team look great regardless.

I do get why you are defensive given Bigfooty and all, but you don’t need to be on the lookout for a slur this time

I can easily accept acknowledge and constructively critique 99 per cent of views in this thread.

The posts I have no time for come from the people who make an excuse for everything that their team doesn’t achieve and offer nothing on the other teams but find excuses as to why those teams are frauds/protected/lucky etc.
at some point with people like that you would like to think they can make at least some observations with a degree of objectivity.

 

[Proper Gander]

I can easily accept acknowledge and constructively critique 99 per cent of views in this thread.

The posts I have no time for come from the people who make an excuse for everything that their team doesn’t achieve and offer nothing on the other teams but find excuses as to why those teams are frauds/protected/lucky etc.
at some point with people like that you would like to think they can make at least some observations with a degree of objectivity.

Plugger?

Seriously, just ignore him mate

 

[Square Peg]

Its never going to be even or fair unless teams play each other once or twice per season

I think everyone would agree home and away against every team every season is the fairest.
But as that is off the table as a possiblity in the foreseeable future, we should think about how to improve the current fixturing to make it better. It won't rival the fairest, but the current system can easily be improved.

 

[Jackington]

It's strange how people seem to get confused about fairness and equalisation in threads like these.

A truly fair fixture would see each club playing teams in two of the other sixes twice, and one of the other sixes once.

Equalisation would have teams playing teams only from their six twice.

But even then, none of that equates for off season improvement; Geelong have played the Bulldogs and Port twice (teams from their six) and they're being treated as easy games. They've then also played West Coast and St Kilda twice (middle six) and only one team (North) from the bottom six. Which falls perfectly under a fair fixture. It's just that nobody predicted West Coast, Port and the Bulldogs would fall off a cliff. In the same way nobody predicted the rise of Collingwood, Fremantle or Carlton.