Analysis "The Fog" Will he make it?

[Damp Squarie]

There's three parts to it for me. He's a beautiful kick, has good hands and is constructive in his use of the footy. But doesn't get enough of it.
3) Our fitness staff need to put a bomb under him. I know he's in a bit better shape this season but he's still a fatty boombah. Run, run, run. No weights

Needs fitness and pace off the mark.
It’s paramount in the off season.

 

[MrBarry]

2 goals from a young forward is a pass mark from me every day of the week.

Yup, agreed with this. Fog is paid to kick goals ffs and is doing that week in week out.

I do not dispute one iota he needs to get more of it and work on his fitness though.

 

[arrowman]

Fog is paid to kick goals ffs and is doing that week in week out.

He's averaging 1.5 goals per game in 2021.

Shane McAdam is averaging 1.5 goals per game in 2021.

I don't think he (Fog) is a long way off it (per the comparison with Walker and Reiwoldt I posted earlier), but he is "off it".

Too harsh for a 35 gamer? Maybe. But you need to see something happening, and I'm not sure we're seeing enough of that "something" - yet.

 

[Interloperer]

Can you remember many actual examples where Fog had the ability to take a realistic shot at goal and passed off?

No. That is (or was) part of his problem, lining up for goal from beyond his range. But to your point, I also can remember very few shots outside cases where the times he is hit on the chest on a lead.

For a supposed "elite leg" he also doesn't do things like: lurk for a short handball when a teammate is just beyond their range. Or find himself in space on the Half-forward flank to receive the ball and run to 50m for a shot.

 

[Anzacpaul]

Fog has a great leg, but he's not Walker when it comes to range. Kicking on 50 is just about his range, whereas Walker from 60 is a pretty sure bet to make the distance.

 

[Go the Guts]

Fog's physique needs to be altered by our conditioning guys IMO. He's still far too thick set and immobile to make it with his current body type. If he can be trained/conditioned into a more mobile player, he'll get a heap more ball and kick a heap more goals, with his deadly kick. At the moment he looks to be a thick, heavy lug who takes the odd mark and kicks a couple of goals a game from 5 disposals, covering minimal territory.

Further to what I wrote last night........ is there any further word on whether Darren Burgess is definitely coming to us next year?

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Fog has a great leg, but he's not Walker when it comes to range. Kicking on 50 is just about his range, whereas Walker from 60 is a pretty sure bet to make the distance.

Yes, Walker has at least another 5m on his leg, but Fog is the more accurate of the 2.... though both are great kicks, including field kicking.

 

[Pilchard_Adams]

If Fog averages 1.5 goals a game over his career, that would put him close to 2nd on our all time goal kickers list by age 32. I don't doubt for a second his averages will be closer to 2 goals a game or more in his prime.

40 goals a year and he is close to top 10 in the AFL each season.

I know it was a different era, but Tony Lockett didn't get a lot of touches. I think around 90% of his kicks were shots on goal. He didn't need much ball to hurt.

35 games into his career, I will give it to mid 2022 before passing judgement. I'd take a 2 goal a game forward who only gets 10 touches a week, not bad for a 3rd forward to complement Thilthorpe and fingers crossed, Coleman jones.

 

[John Who]

Here's some encouraging stats for the stats (and Fog) lover. In 2021:
- Fog has played the most AFL games in a season (currently at 11 games); he played 10 games in both 2018 and 2020 seasons.
- He has kicked the most number of goals in an AFL season this year (15 goals); hi previous best in an AFL season was 9 goals (2018 and 2019).
- his last 5 games, he has been averaging 2 goals per game.
- as opposed to his first 6 games this year, only averaging 1 goal.
- his goal average in the last 5 games is on par with Dixon at Port this year.

Fog is currently on track as a forward.

 

[Southerntakeover]

There's absolutely nothing new in any of this. People who went entirely silent when he consistently got more of it for a month or so waited for a lower possession game and popped up with the same whinges.

He's been building. Forget the stat sheet, the eye test is capable of showing any decent observer that.

The only issue that's arisen from last week's game is how do you deal with a bad game by a young player in need of continuity or confidence? Do you wet the bed and abandon a player that you literally re-signed two weeks ago because you have a pre-created grudge that you're not willing to shift from? Of course you don't.

I think it's likely that he got distracted on the weekend by the melee and what happened afterwards. Ok. He's young.

People need to stop being hysterical, and take a breath. Young key forwards will have quiet days- Fogarty's incredible accuracy lets him claw back some value, even from those, and his physical impact on the opposing team adds even more. If they have them and you still get two goals out of them there are far worse things that can happen.

 

[Zzzuuuppp]

- his goal average in the last 5 games is on par with Dixon at Port this year.

Let us hope that we never have to compare Fog to that flog Dixon ever again...

 

[UcantCme]

I think we need to pause the week by week analysis of Fog

He is a young KPF with less than 30 games

As the late and great Phil Walsh said, we need to get young talented players quickly to 50 games

In that first 50 game there will be big swings in their performance, that's a by-product of being a young and inexperienced player

On SM-G973F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Vader]

If Fog averages 1.5 goals a game over his career, that would put him close to 2nd on our all time goal kickers list by age 32. I don't doubt for a second his averages will be closer to 2 goals a game or more in his prime.

40 goals a year and he is close to top 10 in the AFL each season.

I know it was a different era, but Tony Lockett didn't get a lot of touches. I think around 90% of his kicks were shots on goal. He didn't need much ball to hurt.

35 games into his career, I will give it to mid 2022 before passing judgement. I'd take a 2 goal a game forward who only gets 10 touches a week, not bad for a 3rd forward to complement Thilthorpe and fingers crossed, Coleman jones.

Lockett averaged 10.2 disposals per game - from which he kicked 4.84 goals & 2.10 behinds per game. That means 68% of his disposals were scoring shots. I don't have stats for "shots on goal which failed to score". Your claim of 90% is probably a little bit high, but it's surprisingly close to the mark.

Fogarty averages 8.3 disposals per game, at 1.2 goals & 0.26 behinds per game (excluding the game where he was non-activated sub). Only 17.5% of his disposals are scoring shots (well above AFL average, but significantly lower than Lockett).

Fogarty needs to either increase his disposal numbers, or maximise the impact he does have when he gets the ball - ideally, both. He also needs to cut out the goals contributed to the opposition, such as the 50m penalty he conceded in the Q1 vs Carlton, which led directly to a Carlton goal.

 

[Pilchard_Adams]

Lockett averaged 10.2 disposals per game - from which he kicked 4.84 goals & 2.10 behinds per game. That means 68% of his disposals were scoring shots. I don't have stats for "shots on goal which failed to score". Your claim of 90% is probably a little bit high, but it's surprisingly close to the mark.

Fogarty averages 8.3 disposals per game, at 1.2 goals & 0.26 behinds per game (excluding the game where he was non-activated sub). Only 17.5% of his disposals are scoring shots (well above AFL average, but significantly lower than Lockett).

Fogarty needs to either increase his disposal numbers, or maximise the impact he does have when he gets the ball - ideally, both. He also needs to cut out the goals contributed to the opposition, such as the 50m penalty he conceded in the Q1 vs Carlton, which led directly to a Carlton goal.

I think my estimate was based solely off kicks. But yes I agree. He needs to increase how often he gets involved. This may naturally increase when Tex retires and more ball comes his way.

 

[Betts are off]

Lockett averaged 10.2 disposals per game - from which he kicked 4.84 goals & 2.10 behinds per game. That means 68% of his disposals were scoring shots. I don't have stats for "shots on goal which failed to score". Your claim of 90% is probably a little bit high, but it's surprisingly close to the mark.

Fogarty averages 8.3 disposals per game, at 1.2 goals & 0.26 behinds per game (excluding the game where he was non-activated sub). Only 17.5% of his disposals are scoring shots (well above AFL average, but significantly lower than Lockett).

Fogarty needs to either increase his disposal numbers, or maximise the impact he does have when he gets the ball - ideally, both. He also needs to cut out the goals contributed to the opposition, such as the 50m penalty he conceded in the Q1 vs Carlton, which led directly to a Carlton goal.

Just on the disposals per game, I think you'd be surprised just how many key forwards are averaging between 8-12 disposals per game in 2021 though.

M King 9.4, H McKay 9.4, B King 8.4, J Kennedy 10.1, Jack Riewoldt 10.7, E Hipwood 11.2, L Frankin 12.2, C Hooker 11.8, M Taberner 11.0

I would certainly love FOG to build up to the 12-14 disposals per game mark over the coming years, but he's certainly not alone on current disposal output. Far from it

 

[Pilchard_Adams]

Just on the disposals per game, I think you'd be surprised just how many key forwards are averaging between 8-12 disposals per game in 2021 though.

M King 9.4, H McKay 9.4, B King 8.4, J Kennedy 10.1, Jack Riewoldt 10.7, E Hipwood 11.2, L Frankin 12.2, C Hooker 11.8, M Taberner 11.0

I would certainly love FOG to build up to the 12-14 disposals per game mark over the coming years, but he's certainly not alone on current disposal output. Far from it

So Fog has similar stat's to Max King. No need to panic, don't think people are calling for Max's head

 

[arrowman]

Just on the disposals per game, I think you'd be surprised just how many key forwards are averaging between 8-12 disposals per game in 2021 though.

M King 9.4, H McKay 9.4, B King 8.4, J Kennedy 10.1, Jack Riewoldt 10.7, E Hipwood 11.2, L Frankin 12.2, C Hooker 11.8, M Taberner 11.0

I would certainly love FOG to build up to the 12-14 disposals per game mark over the coming years, but he's certainly not alone on current disposal output. Far from it

Yes, this is what I have noticed when looking at stats for the better KPFs. The bar is actually not that high, and although Fog is behind on most of them, he;s not that far behind.

Comparing him with Tex, for example (admittedly a high bar), the key things to me are disposals, marks and goal assists. Contributions to the forward line beyond just goals kicked. Get even close to Tex on those, and he'll be fine. I just want to see him showing signs in the way he goes about it, and I'm torn about whether those signs are visible.

 

[Vhaluus]

Just on the disposals per game, I think you'd be surprised just how many key forwards are averaging between 8-12 disposals per game in 2021 though.

M King 9.4, H McKay 9.4, B King 8.4, J Kennedy 10.1, Jack Riewoldt 10.7, E Hipwood 11.2, L Frankin 12.2, C Hooker 11.8, M Taberner 11.0

I would certainly love FOG to build up to the 12-14 disposals per game mark over the coming years, but he's certainly not alone on current disposal output. Far from it

This is very interesting.

Potentially shows a change in the way the game is being played this year which could make comparisons back to current key forwards 'at the same age' flawed.

 

[Golumless]

Just on the disposals per game, I think you'd be surprised just how many key forwards are averaging between 8-12 disposals per game in 2021 though.

M King 9.4, H McKay 9.4, B King 8.4, J Kennedy 10.1, Jack Riewoldt 10.7, E Hipwood 11.2, L Frankin 12.2, C Hooker 11.8, M Taberner 11.0

I would certainly love FOG to build up to the 12-14 disposals per game mark over the coming years, but he's certainly not alone on current disposal output. Far from it

Disposals are a rough stat at the best of times to get anything out of. That said, a good descriptor for Fogarty's woes in this regard is out of the 65 key forwards to register single disposal, our boy is 59th (should be 57th, seeing how afl stats treat medical sub appearances). Though of course, that might also plummet Fogs rating seeing everyone below him is injured, a garbage footballer (Schace), or victims of the medical sub themselves.

He's certainly in the conversation for the worst key forward playing regularly at getting the ball. Probably the deserved number 1 due to time served, seeing the others around him are Harry Jones and Josh Treacy who were drafted in the last two years and are physically underdeveloped.

The other issue is that the disposal count really hasn't moved for four years. No matter the decrease from 4 key forwards to 3, or getting fitter/stronger, positional changes, or anything really. It all just looks like a kid who showed some promise but ultimately doesn't have a future at this level. That's not to say we should discard Fog at the moment, our other options are worse after all, so we may as well cling onto dear life and hope that somehow he finds the magic spell that transforms him into an AFL standard footballer, or until we're able to bring in another key forward (and get them up to speed depending on if we draft or trade for it).

 

[John Who]

I think there are 2 separate issues regarding the goals and the disposals stats:
1. Disposals - more important when he was tried more as a midfielder-forward and he was played in the earlier games more in the midfield roles. Obviously as a midfielder, you'd need to get your hands on the footy much more than 10 times per match..

2. Goals - this is really the determining factor as a key forward. If you can kick your 2 goals per match, then that's a decent on-par AFL game as a forward. Other stats and disposals probably aren't as important providing you get the 2 goals average, or preferably more.

The key thing is that a lot of us can all appeciate his talents, and that they've been on show in bits and pieces. He's shown he can dominate in the midfield for a quarter. He's shown he can be real dangerous at the goal front for some quarters. The trick now is for Fog to put it all together in a one complete 4 quarter performance. Seems like only his mindset and fitness can get in the way of him reaching his potential, rather than any lack of potential in him.

 

[John Who]

Fog has a great leg, but he's not Walker when it comes to range. Kicking on 50 is just about his range, whereas Walker from 60 is a pretty sure bet to make the distance.

Fog can kick it 55m comfortably. I think on a good day, he can do the odd 60m kick, as I'm sure I've seen him do on some occasions.

 

[MrBarry]

There's absolutely nothing new in any of this. People who went entirely silent when he consistently got more of it for a month or so waited for a lower possession game and popped up with the same whinges.

He's been building. Forget the stat sheet, the eye test is capable of showing any decent observer that.

The only issue that's arisen from last week's game is how do you deal with a bad game by a young player in need of continuity or confidence? Do you wet the bed and abandon a player that you literally re-signed two weeks ago because you have a pre-created grudge that you're not willing to shift from? Of course you don't.

I think it's likely that he got distracted on the weekend by the melee and what happened afterwards. Ok. He's young.

People need to stop being hysterical, and take a breath. Young key forwards will have quiet days- Fogarty's incredible accuracy lets him claw back some value, even from those, and his physical impact on the opposing team adds even more. If they have them and you still get two goals out of them there are far worse things that can happen.

Well said mate!

 

[kirky]

Yeah you're spot on. My fear is that his physique is more to do with genetics than it is to do with the weights room.

Think you might be spot on. He is a big boy and legs are like tree trunks.

 

[baldandbroke]

He also needs to cut out the goals contributed to the opposition, such as the 50m penalty he conceded in the Q1 vs Carlton, which led directly to a Carlton goal.

 

[Southerntakeover]

Lockett averaged 10.2 disposals per game - from which he kicked 4.84 goals & 2.10 behinds per game. That means 68% of his disposals were scoring shots. I don't have stats for "shots on goal which failed to score". Your claim of 90% is probably a little bit high, but it's surprisingly close to the mark.

Fogarty averages 8.3 disposals per game, at 1.2 goals & 0.26 behinds per game (excluding the game where he was non-activated sub). Only 17.5% of his disposals are scoring shots (well above AFL average, but significantly lower than Lockett).

Fogarty needs to either increase his disposal numbers, or maximise the impact he does have when he gets the ball - ideally, both. He also needs to cut out the goals contributed to the opposition, such as the 50m penalty he conceded in the Q1 vs Carlton, which led directly to a Carlton goal.

LOL at you creeping back in pretending you have any credibility at all in possession count analyses.

Remember when you were claiming 12 was the minimum pass mark for key forwards?