The Footy Whisperer

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Watts4Dinner said:
Oh, I thought they were paranormal? This makes complete sense now. SORRY OP.
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Please. Your only contribution for AFL punting this year is your "fade GWS their body language is terrible" call. Your a muppet trolling the forum hoping to insert one of your "witty" one liners or the latest emoticon.
 

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iluvparis said:
How are the numbers for 'psychological bets' looking?
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I'll take your post with a pinch of salt, but most of my bets have been on standard analysis of games. Some of the things I was looking for were very strong responses to losses by teams with strong cultures ie Sydney / Hawks who came out very strong with 4 goal leads each early. Unfortunately I had concluded that they simply "didn't have the cattle" to beat the line so ended up betting on WB and Ade. I might look at 1st quarter lines for future games.

In most cases i'm hoping to match favourable betting with psychological factors to improve the chances of a bets success. Thus StK's record at Etihad and their matchups with Brisbane is enhanced because I don't think that Brisbane will maintain their intensity of the first two games ie there's a good chance that StK are fired up being 0-2 vs Brisbane who might just "mail it in".

I think the pressure on GC will result in them being super switched on for the start of the Hawks game. I think the hatred for O'Meara will result in a physical battering and a likely tag from Sexton. So if I see some signs I will be betting GC live for the 1st quarter and JOM unders for fantasy points.

I'll just post my bets and let the results do the talking.
 
iluvparis said:
The problem is the results don't do the talking unless you highlight which of your bets are due to psychological factors BEFORE THE GAME

So far I only see three of those in Round 1 for one win and 2 losses.
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Actually 1 win 1 loss (I posted that I changed my mind on one of my Hawthorn bets).

Given that i'm taking an integrated approach i'm going to comment on psychological factors that I feel impact games in the individual round threads and post bets in the bet tracker. In most cases I won't be betting on psychological factors alone if I was I would have bet on Sydney. It's an internet forum for sharing information and people can take as little or as much as they want from it. That being said for this round I am looking for a drop in intensity from Brisbane, GC to come out very hard in the 1st and JOM unders.
 
2u St Kilda -22.5 - win
2u WB -16.5 - loss
1u WC -8.5, 1u Rich +13.5 - no middle
2u Carl +28.5 - win
2u Under 168.5 Carl vs Ess - win
1u Syd/Coll under 186.5 - win
0.75u Coll +21.5 Treloar 29.5+ - loss 2 possessions
1u Buddy -18.5 vs Reid - win
1.5u hedged between both sides Syd / Coll, Geel vs Melb, WC vs Rich, Port vs Ade
1.25u GWS, Ess, Stk for the win
0.5u Bruce and Membrey 3+ goals each and StK win - loss
0.25 BB on Lynch most goals - loss
0.25 Mitchell most possessions - loss

YTD: +26.41: Line +7.79, Totals +3.33, Promo +8.78, Player bets +7.67
 
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2u WC -10.5 - win
2u WC -11.5 - win
1u Syd +22.5 - loss
1u GWS -19.5 - win
1u GWS -22.5 - win
1u GC -3.5 - win
2u StK +3.5 / 1u Coll -5.5 (0.2u BB covering the middle) / 0.25u StK 0-39, 0.25 StK +10.5 / 0.20u BB StK 25+ - win overall
1u Geel vs Hawks over 188.5 - loss
1u Carl vs GC over 188.5 - win
1u Melb vs Freo over 177.5 - win
1u NM vs WB over 184.5 - loss
1u GWS vs Port over 190.5 - win
1u Ade vs Ess over 193.5 - win
1u Bris vs Rich under 190.5 - cashed out 0.2 loss
1u WC vs Syd under 179.5 - win
1u Stk vs Coll under 194.5 - win
0.2 BB WC over 3.5 goals per quarter $16 - loss
0.2 BB H/G/G/G - $9.50 - loss
0.25 Mitchell 30 Buddy 3 goals - loss
0.5u WC + Gaff 29.5 - $3.25 - loss
1.5u Geel -3.5 4th quarter - win
0.75u Hawks +4.5 1st quarter - loss
WC, WB, Melb, Ade, GC, Ess, Coll, Geel - TAB, Crown, TABtouch depending on promo - wins / refund Coll and Melb
0.25 - Bont 25+ and 1 goal - win
1u Melb -19.5 - loss
0.25u Dusty / Beams 60 possies + 3 goals - loss
0.10 Danger 35 possies + 2 goals - loss
0.5u Gibson under 70.5 - win
0.5u Crozier ATGS - win
0.25u Swallow most disposals - loss
0.5u live bet - Geel -16.5 - win
0.5u Duncan over Burgoyne - win
0.10u BB Menegola / Duncan 60 possies - win
0.10u BB Danger most fantasy points - loss
 
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So last week, you were +18U, and now you are +26U despite probably having a losing week (though who could really tell - you count Brisbane -22.5 as a win, and include various "hedged" bets).

Is the idea that if you convince yourself that you're winning, then psychologically that is as good as winning?
 
Spads said:
So last week, you were +18U, and now you are +26U despite probably having a losing week (though who could really tell - you count Brisbane -22.5 as a win, and include various "hedged" bets).

Is the idea that if you convince yourself that you're winning, then psychologically that is as good as winning?
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Probably lost for the week, really?

2u bets - Win 5.7u Lose 2u
1u bets - Win 1.9u and a tiny loss on a potential middle
I bet with multiple promo accounts TABtouch, TAB, William Hill, Bluebet on GWS, StK and Ess for the win and hedged the other games for wins on all other games
I also cleared some bonus bets betting on strong favourites ie GWS and StK and bonus bets on the roughies
I lost some smaller bets and a bonus bets which were all under 1u in size

Clearly I meant StK -22.5 while I also stated on the round thread why I was betting on the Saints. You may have missed it for which I feel terrible given you bet on the Saints at -33.5 which was a loss for you, but a win for me.

I am fortunate that I still have accounts for promo whoring which is probably not the case with some other bettors on this site which makes it difficult to track exact win rates at a glance. You as an example are much easier to track with 3 losses and 2 wins. That was quite easy to tally up. I'll just go ahead and assume you have Chautauqua like finishing ability and will most likely storm all over the top of me so I better make hay while the sun shines.

If I wanted to pad my stats to receive accolades over the internet from people I don't know I would have included my GC 1st qtr line and JOM under fantasy bets which I stated I was going to place, but mixed up the start times and therefore couldn't add.

Next.
 

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mookieb said:
2u St Kilda -22.5 - win
2u WB -16.5 - loss
1u WC -8.5, 1u Rich +13.5 - no middle
2u Carl +28.5 - win
2u Under 168.5 Carl vs Ess - win
1u Syd/Coll under 186.5 - win
0.75u Coll +21.5 Treloar 29.5+ - loss 2 possessions
1u Buddy -18.5 vs Reid - win
1.5u hedged between both sides Syd / Coll, Geel vs Melb, WC vs Rich, Port vs Ade
1.25u GWS, Ess, Stk for the win
0.5u Bruce and Membrey 3+ goals each and StK win - loss
0.25 BB on Lynch most goals - loss
0.25 Mitchell most possessions - loss

YTD: +26.41: Line +7.79, Totals +3.33, Promo +8.78, Player bets +7.67
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??? Were any of these posted BEFORE the event?
 
1. You can't include promo whoring in your results.
2. You said you were betting on Brisbane, yet you "clearly" meant St Kilda? If you say Brisbane, you mean Brisbane, despite ninja edits.
3. You lost 3U in small bets, but they don't count because the individual bets were small?
 
mookieb said:
I have an inkling that Brisbane might mail it in for the game against the Saints. An intense game vs GC, a big comeback vs Ess then 4 goal loss. Think they might struggle to back it up on the road. Alternatively Saints should be pumped coming off 2 losses, but a very good performance against WC. Some concern that Roo, Armitage and Steven will miss. On StK -22.5.
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Writing the wrong name, but right margin isn't a "ninja edit" I wouldn't have thought.

Chism said:
stand alone individual/personal threads started by anyone and it can be a blog of sorts where posters can track all their bets
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Who's to say what results I should include in my thread / blog of my bets? The moderator in the first post stated tracking all your bets so that's what i'm doing (although I realise it takes limited skill to promo whore).

I did include the smaller bets that lost. I just mentioned the size of the bets in reference to the fact that I won for the week.
 
mookieb said:
Most bets i'll post in the individual round and then in the bet tracker. I also edit the first post of my bets (in the bet tracker) with additional bets as the round progresses.
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Instead of editing posts, you should quote them and edit it when it's been quoted rather than changing the original post. It just doesn't look good when edited posts appear with the results. Not saying you're changing anything but it can be seen that way.
 
Watts4Dinner said:
Instead of editing posts, you should quote them and edit it when it's been quoted rather than changing the original post. It just doesn't look good when edited posts appear with the results. Not saying you're changing anything but it can be seen that way.
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Yes fair enough. I understand that the board takes a dim view of posting bets after the completion of games, but alternatively I don't want to post everytime I put a small bet out on a exotics market or if i'm tailing someone's else's expertise. I tend to post my line bets in the individual round forum.

YTD: +37.71: H2H: -1.88, Line +13.3, Totals +7.03, Promo +9.73, Player Markets +8.75
 
2u Adelaide -27.5
1.5u StK +16.5
0.5u BB StK 1-39
1u WC H2H
1u Coll H2H
1u WC -14.5
0.75u Freo -6.5
0.5u Bris +59.5
1u Coll -2.5
1u GWS -14.5
0.5u Geel -4.5 4th qtr

1u GC vs Ade over 191.5 / 0.5u over 193.5
1.25u Freo vs NM over 183.5
1u StK vs Geel over 184.5
1u Port over 107.5

0.25u BB Coll 36+ 1st qtr
0.5u multi (Crown Promo) - Ade, Port, WC and StK

(Round 6)
1u Syd -18.5
4u StK -3.5
2u GWS -13.5
 
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0.25u Ryder Badcoe winner $21
0.25u Ryder over 100 fantasy $2.75
1u Port wire to wire
0.25u Port over 3.5g per quarter $12
0.25u Coll over 36 points 1st qtr $6
0.5u SPP -7.5 fantasy vs SPS
0.5u Rioli over 75.5 fantasy
0.5u Kelly -15.5 fantasy
0.25u Port win and Gray 1st goal $15
 
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2u Adelaide -27.5 - win
0.5u Bris +59.5 - win
1u Port wire to wire - win
1u GWS -14.5 - win
0.5u Geel -4.5 4th qtr - win
1.5u StK +16.5 - loss
0.5u BB StK 1-39 - loss
1u WC H2H - loss
1u Coll H2H - loss
1u Coll -2.5 - loss
1u WC -14.5 - loss
0.75u Freo -6.5 - loss
0.5u - Melb 1-39 - loss
0.25u BB - Melb 1-39 - loss

1u GC vs Ade over 191.5 / 0.5u over 193.5 - win
1.25u Freo vs NM over 183.5 - loss
1.25u StK vs Geel over 184.5 - win
1u Port over 107.5 - win
1.25u Melb vs Rich under 172.5 - win

0.25u BB Coll 36+ 1st qtr - loss
0.5u multi (Crown Promo) - Ade, Port, WC and StK - loss

0.25u Mundy ATS - loss
0.5u Adams +11.5 fantasy points vs Treloar - loss
0.5u Rioli over 75.5 - win
0.5u Gibson under 64.5 - win
0.5u Kelly -15.5 fantasy points vs Shiel - loss
0.5u SPP -7.5 fantasy vs SPS - loss

0.25u Ryder Badcoe winner $21 - loss
0.25u Ryder over 100 fantasy $2.75 - loss
0.25u Grundy Medallist - $21 - loss
0.25u Port over 3.5g per quarter - $12 - loss
0.25u BB Coll over 36 points 1st qtr $6 - loss

0.25u Port win and Gray 1st goal - loss - $15 - loss
0.5u under 186.5 Dusty 30+ - $3 - win
0.5u Coll win Sidebottom 25+ - $3 - loss

YTD: 36.67, H2H -3.38, Line 12.63, Totals 10.4, Promo 9.48, Players 7.29, Multi -0.5
 
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1u StK -3.5
0.5u GWS -4.5 1st qtr
1u GWS -14.5
0.75u Geel -8.5 4th qtr
0.75u Geel -6.5 4th qtr
2u Geel -22.5 / 1u Coll +26.5
0.75u Coll 1st qtr +5.5
1u Port -29.5
1u Syd -18.5
1u Freo +25.5
0.75u NM -3.5 1st qtr
0.5u NM 1-39

Johnson over 64.5 fantasy
0.5u Betts FGS

Multi - Syd, Hawks, Port, Ade - loss

1u Port over 107.5
1.5u Ade vs Rich over 192.5
1.5u WC vs Freo under 184.5
1u NM vs GC under 198.5
1u Geel vs Coll under 186.5
 
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YTD: 36.99, H2H -3.88, Line +9.88, Totals 12.97, Promo +9.48, Players +7.64, BWLW +0.65, Multi -1

Basically break even for the round, although Wells taking a mark with 1 second left and slotting it from the boundary was brutal.

Looking to make some changes as I have talked myself out of multiple psychological bets which would have proven extremely profitable. Also looking to review other betting patterns such as using more BWLW bets rather than lines.

1u StK -3.5 - win
0.5u GWS -4.5 1st qtr - win
1u GWS -14.5 - loss
0.75u Geel -8.5 4th qtr - loss
0.75u Geel -6.5 4th qtr - loss
2u Geel -22.5 / 1u Coll +26.5 - loss
0.75u Coll 1st qtr +5.5 - win
1u Port -29.5 - win
1u Syd -18.5 - loss
1u Freo +25.5 - loss
0.75u NM -3.5 1st qtr - loss
0.5u NM 1-39 - win

Johnson over 64.5 fantasy - win
0.5u Betts FGS - refund

Multi - Syd, Hawks, Port, Ade - loss

1u Port over 107.5 - win
1.5u Ade vs Rich over 192.5 - win
1.5u WC vs Freo under 184.5 - win
1u NM vs GC under 198.5 - loss
1u Geel vs Coll under 186.5 - win
 
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