The future of Australian Basketball feat. Thon Maker

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Goodo73

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http://www.foxsports.com.au/basketb...m/news-story/2b7fe528aa1dd2455036d16d8ddf080c
Maker, Froling and Mcdowell white named for the Hoop Summit which is great news.
Re this comment from Froling: “...especially after getting cut from the most recent Australian under-19 team. I took that personally and hope I have made a statement to everyone who has doubted me to this point.”.

Now it may be that cutting him was unjustified (I have no idea either way), but perhaps his outlook, and those in a similar situation, needs to be "Maybe something's missing from my game. What can I do to improve it?". The immediate assumption that it's a snubbing is mildly disturbing.
 

Happy Mastenator

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Re this comment from Froling: “...especially after getting cut from the most recent Australian under-19 team. I took that personally and hope I have made a statement to everyone who has doubted me to this point.”.

Now it may be that cutting him was unjustified (I have no idea either way), but perhaps his outlook, and those in a similar situation, needs to be "Maybe something's missing from my game. What can I do to improve it?". The immediate assumption that it's a snubbing is mildly disturbing.
To be fair if you are cut from the Aussie u/19 team I can understand why you might want to point out that you can were named mvp of a select event with the worlds best players. Be interesting to know what the full story was there.
 

didaksrightfoot

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Thon Maker wants to enter the draft, NBA will determine eligibility. I think it's a pretty poor decision.
http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/15127862/five-star-f-thon-maker-plans-declare-draft

From an actual basketball development perspective, I think he would be much better off going to College first. (see Dante Exum)
But from a career perspective - its not a bad idea to cash in when your value is high (see Dante Exum) rather than risk being exposed at college (see Simmons - not so much "exposed" but less certain as No 1 pick than he was a year ago).

My guess is Maker and his camp will feel out NBA teams and see what the opinion is. If the impression is that he is definitely a first rounder (therefore 3-4 garaunteed years on contract), then you would seriously have have to think about it. (Especially if teams expect him to be around a lottery pick).

It comes down to how high teams rate him now, and how much confidence his camp has that a year (or more) in college will help raise his value - or whether they expect it to just be a year of treading water while waiting for the 2017 draft - while taking a significant risk that he will be exposed against a higher level competition, or end up in a team that doesn't allow him to use his skills.

I think at the moment he would very much be a project pick - is very raw, and hasn't faced anything close to tough competition. Although he appears very talented, right now, any team taking him would be expecting a project to work on over the next few years (which to me keeps him outside the lottery, at least). And we've seen to many times that these kind of projects don't work out.
BUT - I felt the same thing about Porzingis, and he's done better in his first year than anyone could imagine. So if a team is confident in Maker's unique talents, and thinks they can utilise him well, then a team may well be willing to take the risk.
---

If it's obvious that no team is willing to take a punt on him, or that he is well below other draftees, then there's always time to withdraw and enter college for a year.
 

Drummer_19

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I think millions of dollars guaranteed over playing for free at college is a no-brainer decision.
http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/15127862/five-star-f-thon-maker-plans-declare-draft

From an actual basketball development perspective, I think he would be much better off going to College first. (see Dante Exum)
But from a career perspective - its not a bad idea to cash in when your value is high (see Dante Exum) rather than risk being exposed at college (see Simmons - not so much "exposed" but less certain as No 1 pick than he was a year ago).

My guess is Maker and his camp will feel out NBA teams and see what the opinion is. If the impression is that he is definitely a first rounder (therefore 3-4 garaunteed years on contract), then you would seriously have have to think about it. (Especially if teams expect him to be around a lottery pick).

It comes down to how high teams rate him now, and how much confidence his camp has that a year (or more) in college will help raise his value - or whether they expect it to just be a year of treading water while waiting for the 2017 draft - while taking a significant risk that he will be exposed against a higher level competition, or end up in a team that doesn't allow him to use his skills.

I think at the moment he would very much be a project pick - is very raw, and hasn't faced anything close to tough competition. Although he appears very talented, right now, any team taking him would be expecting a project to work on over the next few years (which to me keeps him outside the lottery, at least). And we've seen to many times that these kind of projects don't work out.
BUT - I felt the same thing about Porzingis, and he's done better in his first year than anyone could imagine. So if a team is confident in Maker's unique talents, and thinks they can utilise him well, then a team may well be willing to take the risk.
---

If it's obvious that no team is willing to take a punt on him, or that he is well below other draftees, then there's always time to withdraw and enter college for a year.
If he was a first round pick, sure. I don't think that's the case tho (maybe he has gotten word from NBA recruiters that he is, who knows), I wouldn't go to college either if I was him - would be going to play somewhere in Europe for a year or two. His hype has gone down a fair bit and he hasn't performed all that well over the last year in the rep tournaments against the other big prospects in his age group.

I'd worry about his handlers motives as well tbh, it's always seemed shifty to me with the way he's always moved around from country to country to cash in on him.
 

didaksrightfoot

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If he was a first round pick, sure. I don't think that's the case tho (maybe he has gotten word from NBA recruiters that he is, who knows), I wouldn't go to college either if I was him - would be going to play somewhere in Europe for a year or two. His hype has gone down a fair bit and he hasn't performed all that well over the last year in the rep tournaments against the other big prospects in his age group.

I'd worry about his handlers motives as well tbh, it's always seemed shifty to me with the way he's always moved around from country to country to cash in on him.
Europe would be the absolute worst idea.
European teams generally do not play youngsters - they have absolutely no investment in your (long term) development as a player, and his style does not fit European basketball at all. Also - if he is lucky enough to get on a team that wants to play him, and he performs, any European contract includes a buyout clause that becomes tricky for NBA teams.
I would rather he play in the NBL or in the D-League than go to Europe. But really I don't see any of those as an option (unless an NBA team drafts him, and then stashes him in the D-League for a year... which may not be the worst idea).

I don't think a first round pick is that unlikely - but obviously we have to wait to see what scouting reports are. He has been highly touted as a junior, and though very much a project, has a size and skillset that would very much attract NBA teams. Much rawer and less talented guys have been taken in the first round in the past just based on "potential".
 

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Happy Mastenator

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Chad Ford on ESPN

Australian big man Thon Maker threw the NBA world a curve on Sunday as he announced that he'll attempt to enter the 2016 NBA draft.

Assuming he is eligible, Maker's draft stock is still very much a matter of debate.

I reached out to several NBA folks on Sunday night, and the general consensus was that it's too early to tell what kind of NBA player Maker would be.

Almost a year ago, Maker arrived at the 2015 Nike Hoop Summit with a lot of hype, but he was somewhat disappointing. He seemed overwhelmed and his impact and effort faded a bit, relative to expectations.

He has intriguing physical tools (he's 7-foot-1 with a 9-foot-3 standing reach), with solid agility and athleticism for his size. He generally plays really hard and he has a good, albeit streaky jump shot.

But as he showed last April, his skill set was raw, his body needed development and his feel for the game seemed a year or two behind that of teammates Ben Simmons, Jamal Murray and Skal Labissiere. Even Cheick Diallo, who is raw in his own right, looked like he had a better grasp of the game.

The general consensus after the Hoop Summit was that Maker was Fran Frascilla's proverbial two years away from being two years away from being a productive NBA player.

Things have gotten better for Maker's stock since then. After his poor showing at the Hoop Summit, Maker decided to postpone college and returned to the Athlete Institute in Ontario (Canada). And he was named MVP of the Basketball Without Borders event in the Dominican Republic over the summer.

The last time most NBA teams saw him was at the Basketball Without Borders event in Toronto during All-Star Weekend. The reviews were better, but still pretty mixed. Matched up against DeAndre Ayton, a top prospect for the 2018 draft, Maker played harder, with more physicality, and drew qualified praise from scouts.

While our ESPN recruiting experts don't rank prep school or international players, I reached out to recruiting guru Paul Biancardi, who says Maker would be ranked in the top 10 of this year's loaded high school class. That's high praise given the overall talent level of this group, and it would make Maker a five-star recruit.

But as to where he would land in this year's draft? That is still a major question mark. Of the scouts I surveyed, one had him in the late lottery, several others in the mid 20s and one in the second round. That's a massive range.

Maker will now have several obstacles to overcome.

First, he'll have to get the NBA to agree with him that he's eligible for this year's draft. He has an intriguing case. If he qualifies as an international player, it's pretty easy. As a 19-year-old international player, he would be eligible.

However, because Maker played two years of high school basketball in the United States, the NBA may rule that he's not an international player. If the league rules that way, then he has to prove his eligibility as an American player, which is a bit more complicated.

"NBA rules state that a player must be at least 19 years old and one year removed from high school," ESPN.com's Jeff Borzello wrote. "Maker turned 19 in February but still attends Orangeville Prep (Canada). Maker's case for eligibility would come down to convincing the NBA that he was a member of the 2015 class and decided to do a post-graduate year."

It's a gray area for the NBA and the folks I spoke with didn't have a real feel on what the league would ultimately decide.

If Maker is ruled eligible, his draft stock is going to hinge on what teams learn at the NBA draft combine, to which he's likely to be invited, and predraft workouts.

NBA teams might have to do a lot of homework in a short period of time. Up until a few weeks ago, Maker was making visits to college programs. The expectation was that he'd stay in school at least one year.


Ideally, he will hire a well-connected agent that can get him six weeks of strength and advanced basketball training. The more he knows about the workouts, the better he'll look in them.

If Maker comes into workouts, makes shots, plays with toughness and pick things up quickly, he'll likely rise on the draft board. If teams see enough upside, he might land in the lottery.

However, it's also possible that he's physically and emotionally overwhelmed when matched up against the elite talent he'll be competing with in workouts. Most or all of them will have the kind of college experience that could make them readier and more polished.

So Maker could easily slide into the second round -- or even go undrafted -- if he struggles.

For now, we've put him at No. 20 on our top 100. We'll be watching close over the next couple of months to see his progress.
 

calyam

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http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/15127862/five-star-f-thon-maker-plans-declare-draft

From an actual basketball development perspective, I think he would be much better off going to College first. (see Dante Exum)
But from a career perspective - its not a bad idea to cash in when your value is high (see Dante Exum) rather than risk being exposed at college (see Simmons - not so much "exposed" but less certain as No 1 pick than he was a year ago).

My guess is Maker and his camp will feel out NBA teams and see what the opinion is. If the impression is that he is definitely a first rounder (therefore 3-4 garaunteed years on contract), then you would seriously have have to think about it. (Especially if teams expect him to be around a lottery pick).

It comes down to how high teams rate him now, and how much confidence his camp has that a year (or more) in college will help raise his value - or whether they expect it to just be a year of treading water while waiting for the 2017 draft - while taking a significant risk that he will be exposed against a higher level competition, or end up in a team that doesn't allow him to use his skills.

I think at the moment he would very much be a project pick - is very raw, and hasn't faced anything close to tough competition. Although he appears very talented, right now, any team taking him would be expecting a project to work on over the next few years (which to me keeps him outside the lottery, at least). And we've seen to many times that these kind of projects don't work out.
BUT - I felt the same thing about Porzingis, and he's done better in his first year than anyone could imagine. So if a team is confident in Maker's unique talents, and thinks they can utilise him well, then a team may well be willing to take the risk.
---

If it's obvious that no team is willing to take a punt on him, or that he is well below other draftees, then there's always time to withdraw and enter college for a year.
From a long-term development standpoint, he'd be better off playing in college for a year. The NBA isn't always the best place to develop your game given the crushing schedule. I felt that Exum would've been much better off with a year in college as well.

The financial side is a difficult beast. Exum and Maker will obviously benefit from getting paid immediately rather than playing for free in college; but by not being ready to contribute immediately they could earn a smaller second contract that could cause them to be worse off in the long-term.
 

didaksrightfoot

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From a long-term development standpoint, he'd be better off playing in college for a year. The NBA isn't always the best place to develop your game given the crushing schedule. I felt that Exum would've been much better off with a year in college as well.

The financial side is a difficult beast. Exum and Maker will obviously benefit from getting paid immediately rather than playing for free in college; but by not being ready to contribute immediately they could earn a smaller second contract that could cause them to be worse off in the long-term.
Just looking at the financial side:

By going to College you also risk whether that NBA contract is EVER going to come. Professional sports is very fickle, and a lot of the time it is right place, right time.

Exum, for example, has garaunteed himself around $10m for his first 3 seasons. His dad will be very clear with him about how much that is compared to players in every other basketball league around the world. In fact, outside of the top handful of players in Europe (unless salary's have gone up since I last saw) - you wouldn't get close to that over an entire career in any other league in the world. If you play it smart - that $10m is life-changing money (unless you do a Robert Swift). Exum gets that $10m no matter what happens - even if he never plays another nba game.

Now lets look at going the college scenario. Take the 2 extremes of the possible outcomes:
1. You do great in college, develop perfectly - get that same rookie contract, and then become an NBA Star. Career Earnings say: $100m.
2. You either get injured, or you are exposed at College that you aren't NBA standard - and become a journeyman in leagues around the world. Worst case - earnings range from $0, to $1-2m over a 10-20year career whilst having to travel and keep looking for your next job.

Personally - I have always been pro players going to college. I even think the mandatory 1 year in college is inadequate. (although- NCAA rules must change for players to get some of the benefits based on the multi-millions colleges are raking in).
BUT - if you are faced with that financial decision above - is the potential better development really worth taking that risk? Or would you rather just take the $10m that is on the table (knowing at best, that would be your starting contract anyway - and that the best case career earnings is still a possibility)

Knowing how fickle a professional sports career is, and how big those sums of money are we are talking about - you would take that $10m 99 times out of 100. The only time you wouldn't is if you're Tim Duncan and know that you are a once-in-a-lifetime player. You don't take that risk as a possible fringe-player.
 

Drummer_19

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Exum's situation is vastly different tho since he was basically a lock top 10 pick for over a year off the back of strong performances in international play and it made sense for him to lock it up and declare, he pretty much would have been nuts to do anything else. There's a pretty big difference in equity of a lottery pick contract vs late 1st round or 2nd rounder.
 

didaksrightfoot

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Exum's situation is vastly different tho since he was basically a lock top 10 pick for over a year off the back of strong performances in international play and it made sense for him to lock it up and declare, he pretty much would have been nuts to do anything else. There's a pretty big difference in equity of a lottery pick contract vs late 1st round or 2nd rounder.
That's fair.
Except that even 30th pick it is still a garaunteed 3 years and $3m. Scales upward to about $4m at pick 20, $5m at 15, $6.5m at 10, $9m at 5, and $15m at 1. (based on 2015/16 figures - I reckon it may go up a bit with the new CBA and raised salary cap).

As I said above, it depends where teams rate him. If the sense they get is that he will be a late 1st, probably 2nd-rounder (if not undrafted) - then yeah, you'd reconsider and go do a year in college. But if teams put a lot of interested in him and it looks like he's garaunteed to go in the first, and potentially be a lottery pick - then I would probably take that.
 

Warsaw

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Pretty sure this is the last draft before the rookie wage scale increases relative to the increase in salary cap, so its curious that Ed Smith, who seems only interested in how he can profit of Thon, has done this especially when every indication so far has been Thon going to college.

Either way he seems years away. Not against those formative years being in the NBA as opposed to College, just that his whole situation isn't great and think there's a bit of failure on the AIS for not holding on to him or brining him back. But I'm not fully across with what went down with Thon and Smith.

Wouldn't touch him (generally speaking) with a high lottery pick. When you get the Skal/Rabb range then you can probably start talking.
 

Happy Mastenator

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Pretty sure this is the last draft before the rookie wage scale increases relative to the increase in salary cap, so its curious that Ed Smith, who seems only interested in how he can profit of Thon, has done this especially when every indication so far has been Thon going to college.
Actually the wrong way. The rookie wage becomes smaller as a portion of the salary cap next year. The rookie scale is a locked number, it's not a percentage of the total cap.
 

Superstar swan

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I dont think its a bad idea , however i doubt hes ready for nba level. He would be appealing because he is a 5 star talent, yet hasnt been tested so his draft value may be lower. A team can potentially now get a lottery talent for far less. I would secure his rights and send him home to perth to play in the nbl for a year.
 

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Actually the wrong way. The rookie wage becomes smaller as a portion of the salary cap next year. The rookie scale is a locked number, it's not a percentage of the total cap.
Didn't mean it as a percentage of the cap, but yeah your right. I thought there was a considerable increase in the rookie wage, but there isn't.

Less incentive for Ed Smith to sit through a college year then.
 

PP34

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As for Thon, I'm really sceptical about him ever being anything in the NBA. One of those project players who has a height and skill set that really just doesn't make any sense in the NBA. It's alright to dominate against kids but the NBA is a whole different level.
 

Happy Mastenator

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Skal has declared. He's a year older than Thon and showed very little in college, still projected to go late lottery. If he can do that then Thon will be a first rounder as well.
 
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