List Mgmt. The Great Guess - 2020 Draft preview thread

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LittleG

Norm Smith Medallist
Nov 18, 2015
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Traditionally we target the late improvers. That is not possible.

It’s just one big lottery. Let’s hope they give us pick 2 and we can speculate on someone from outside our academy.

Who is in the top 4, that isn’t JUH?
 

Northernsoul74

Premiership Player
Jun 19, 2016
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Traditionally we target the late improvers. That is not possible.

It’s just one big lottery. Let’s hope they give us pick 2 and we can speculate on someone from outside our academy.

Who is in the top 4, that isn’t JUH?
Grainger-Barass WA key defender.
 

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weltschmerz

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May 23, 2019
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Just throwing down some highly-rated kids if we do end up with an early pick other than Jamarra. Getting the info from a couple of threads and afldraftcentral, everything is second-hand at best, but I'm a draft nuff with nothing to do.

Elijah Hollands: 188cm, 80kg, mid-forward with great scope on the wing, recovering from an ACL

Denver Grainger-Barras: 192cm, 77kg, key defender, great mark, can play lockdown

Nathan O'Driscoll: 182cm, 75kg, mid/def, hard tackler and tough player

Zach Reid: 201cm, 81kg, key defender, good kick, good tackling
 

LittleG

Norm Smith Medallist
Nov 18, 2015
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Just throwing down some highly-rated kids if we do end up with an early pick other than Jamarra. Getting the info from a couple of threads and afldraftcentral, everything is second-hand at best, but I'm a draft nuff with nothing to do.

Elijah Hollands: 188cm, 80kg, mid-forward with great scope on the wing, recovering from an ACL

Denver Grainger-Barras: 192cm, 77kg, key defender, great mark, can play lockdown

Nathan O'Driscoll: 182cm, 75kg, mid/def, hard tackler and tough player

Zach Reid: 201cm, 81kg, key defender, good kick, good tackling
All would be useful in our side. GDB is a favourite but then would be happy with ANY of these 4.
 

Virgin Dog

Premiership Player
Oct 29, 2017
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If I had to pick the top 4 right now on quality, I would go with:
  • Jamarra Ugle-Hagan
  • Elijah Hollands
  • Denver Grainger-Barras
  • Riley Thilthorpe
Keeping in mind that the bottom 4, in my opinion, will be Gold Coast, Carlton, Adelaide and Sydney. Of those, I doubt the first two want talls. Sydney definitely want talls.

I would pick Sydney to bid on JUH. Hollands will be taken by one of those 4, and guys like Will Phillips and Tanner Bruhn will be looking at the top 4 too. Usually I'd say clubs won't target needs that early, but Melbourne taking Jackson at 3 and Pickett early bucked the trend a little last year. Plus with no U18 games so far this year, it's not going to be as clear who the best prospects are. Right now, I'd be guessing:

Pick 1 - Gold Coast - Will Phillips
Pick 2 - Carlton - Elijah Hollands
Pick 3 - Sydney - bid on JUH, we match, take Denver Grainger-Barras
Pick4/5 - Adelaide - Riley Thilthorpe
 

Virgin Dog

Premiership Player
Oct 29, 2017
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Just throwing down some highly-rated kids if we do end up with an early pick other than Jamarra. Getting the info from a couple of threads and afldraftcentral, everything is second-hand at best, but I'm a draft nuff with nothing to do.

Elijah Hollands: 188cm, 80kg, mid-forward with great scope on the wing, recovering from an ACL

Denver Grainger-Barras: 192cm, 77kg, key defender, great mark, can play lockdown

Nathan O'Driscoll: 182cm, 75kg, mid/def, hard tackler and tough player

Zach Reid: 201cm, 81kg, key defender, good kick, good tackling
Would love any of those, except maybe O'Driscoll since we have West and Porter developing in the twos
 

Virgin Dog

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O'Driscoll's in there because from what I've read, he's one of the players with the most mongrel, which is something we're in need of. He's not there because of a need for his position.
Yeah fair enough. A senior recruiter described Rhylee West in his draft year as the second biggest prick on-field he'd ever seen in his entire career, marginally behind Jack Viney. We seriously need West and Smith featuring in our midfield ASAP because Macrae is a bit of a soft****, Bont seems to pick and choose when he wants to get rough, and Dunkley has very little mongrel too. I wouldn't hate the idea of O'Driscoll, but would like to see someone like Zach Reid if anything (since DGB will probably be taken too early)
 

weltschmerz

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May 23, 2019
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I'm picking for us in a phantom draft. Expecting that we'll just have a couple of late picks after matching a bid on JUH, so I'm looking at some overagers who missed out last year, Dyson Hilder and Josh Shute in particular. I'm not really expecting anyone to bid on Raak outside the top 40 or so, and I'd probably match a bid.
 

Virgin Dog

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I'm picking for us in a phantom draft. Expecting that we'll just have a couple of late picks after matching a bid on JUH, so I'm looking at some overagers who missed out last year, Dyson Hilder and Josh Shute in particular. I'm not really expecting anyone to bid on Raak outside the top 40 or so, and I'd probably match a bid.
Josh Shute would be an interesting one - surprised he never got picked up, as he's got a ton of pace and good foot skills. This year is as good a chance as any for him to work on his endurance which seems to have been his biggest weakness.From memory, Hunter was fairly unfit in his draft year, so it's definitely not a deal breaker.

Another who would be lucky to get drafted, but I like as a very outside chance (rookie at best) is Tyrone Thorne. He's an indigenous small forward in WA. Record holder for the AFL Agility test (broke it at the state combine), has a massive leap, good goal sense and pressure (typical indigenous small forward traits) but is ridiculously undersized. The dude would get crushed against full grown adults (same height as Caleb Daniel, but about 10kg lighter) so needs to put on weight this year if he's any chance of being drafted. Just thought I'd throw his name in there as he's 19 this year and has really performed at Colts level
 

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weltschmerz

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May 23, 2019
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Another who would be lucky to get drafted, but I like as a very outside chance (rookie at best) is Tyrone Thorne. He's an indigenous small forward in WA. Record holder for the AFL Agility test (broke it at the state combine), has a massive leap, good goal sense and pressure (typical indigenous small forward traits) but is ridiculously undersized. The dude would get crushed against full grown adults (same height as Caleb Daniel, but about 10kg lighter) so needs to put on weight this year if he's any chance of being drafted. Just thought I'd throw his name in there as he's 19 this year and has really performed at Colts level
I'd been keeping an eye on him last year. If we'd gone Bergman or Kemp with our first pick, I'd have been hoping for Thorne.

Nikolas Cox and Daniel Mott are a couple of others I'm looking at for the phantom. Seeing if I can trade out pick 13 for two later picks to get a few more points on the board for Jamarra.
 

weltschmerz

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Jay Dahlhaus is one if you're still thinking we need a small forward. Prolific tackler, nice bit of mongrel about him. Missed out after doing his acl.
Winger and KPD are my priorities, though we'll see how it's looking after a couple of picks. Cody Raak may or may not become a KPD.
 

weltschmerz

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I'm not hoping to lose any of our boys, but I do think it'd be a good idea to trade someone at the end of this year for some draft points. Probably a fringe 22 midfielder who'd be best 22 at many other clubs, Toby McLean comes to mind.
 

Virgin Dog

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I'm not hoping to lose any of our boys, but I do think it'd be a good idea to trade someone at the end of this year for some draft points. Probably a fringe 22 midfielder who'd be best 22 at many other clubs, Toby McLean comes to mind.
Toby McLean I can definitely see going as I don't feel he offers us anything we immediately need, and would be far more valued elsewhere. The only others of any sort of value we may explore trading would be:
- Schache (brought in Bruce, have JUH coming, may give up on him). Maybe worth a mid second rounder at most
- Richards (been unimpressive at HFF, have Vandermeer coming through plus Lynch may regain form). Worth early second at most

Everyone else is either contracted, vital to the team, or worth nothing. Even then, can't see us trading Schache or Richards.
 

Northernsoul74

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Toby McLean I can definitely see going as I don't feel he offers us anything we immediately need, and would be far more valued elsewhere. The only others of any sort of value we may explore trading would be:
- Schache (brought in Bruce, have JUH coming, may give up on him). Maybe worth a mid second rounder at most
- Richards (been unimpressive at HFF, have Vandermeer coming through plus Lynch may regain form). Worth early second at most

Everyone else is either contracted, vital to the team, or worth nothing. Even then, can't see us trading Schache or Richards.
McLean does seem the obvious one but we’d be trading at his lowest value. Don’t think he’s get us all that much anymore.
 

bobs head soup

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As I understand it, we currently have 1 1st rounder, 2 3rds and 1 5th.

Pretty much all of that goes on matching a bid on Jamarra (almost certainly top 3), the rest will go an matching possible bids on Cody Raak and Ewan Macpheson, hopefully late in the draft (40+).

Given we get discounts on these 3 and have closely checked, and worked on, their development, they are far more probable targets for us than players we can't watch or contact this year?

Given likely list reductions, I'd think more than 3 draftees this year is improbable?
 

Virgin Dog

Premiership Player
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As I understand it, we currently have 1 1st rounder, 2 3rds and 1 5th.

Pretty much all of that goes on matching a bid on Jamarra (almost certainly top 3), the rest will go an matching possible bids on Cody Raak and Ewan Macpheson, hopefully late in the draft (40+).

Given we get discounts on these 3 and have closely checked, and worked on, their development, they are far more probable targets for us than players we can't watch or contact this year?

Given likely list reductions, I'd think more than 3 draftees this year is improbable?
I wonder if we attempt to do what GWS did with Green - get an idea of where other clubs will bid on JUH, and see if we can jump ahead of the bid. Would require losing picks from 2021 (where the draft goes very deep apparently) and possibly a player to pay for it, but could mean two top end talents. Grabbing DGB and JUH would be pretty enticing if it could be pulled off.

I am assuming we go with the 3 minimum - JUH, then possibly Raak and/or Macpherson later on
 

weltschmerz

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May 23, 2019
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Phantom draft update: Jamarra didn’t go top 2 (and I suspect Carlton would prefer Thilthorpe, with his ruck capacity, at their pick 3; suspecting Sydney will bite with pick 4), and got a couple hundred extra points through a trade with Port. This is an entirely pointless exercise, but aren’t most things nowadays?

If Jamarra goes at 3, we'd get him and two picks in the 40s. If he goes at 4, we'd get him, a pick in the late 30s, and a pick in the late 40s. If no bids come on Raak or MacPherson, I'll use those for a winger and a KPD.
 
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Virgin Dog

Premiership Player
Oct 29, 2017
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Phantom draft update: Jamarra didn’t go top 2 (and I suspect Carlton would prefer Thilthorpe, with his ruck capacity, at their pick 3; suspecting Sydney will bite with pick 4), and got a couple hundred extra points through a trade with Port. This is an entirely pointless exercise, but aren’t most things nowadays?

If Jamarra goes at 3, we'd get him and two picks in the 40s. If he goes at 4, we'd get him, a pick in the late 30s, and a pick in the late 40s. If no bids come on Raak or MacPherson, I'll use those for a winger and a KPD.
In the real thing, I assume complex shenanigans happen. But in this scenario, if we got away with JUH, a pick in the 30s, plus Raak or Macpherson without any deficit, we'd be laughing. Fantastic result if it went like that
 

weltschmerz

Club Legend
May 23, 2019
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In the real thing, I assume complex shenanigans happen. But in this scenario, if we got away with JUH, a pick in the 30s, plus Raak or Macpherson without any deficit, we'd be laughing. Fantastic result if it went like that
I'd love that. If we came out of the draft with JUH, Raak, and Josh Shute or another good winger, it'd be an awesome one. I'm hopeful about Raak's chances to develop into a good lockdown defender.
 

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