Random The hangar gambling thread - responsibly

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Howard Moon

Howard Moon

Brownlow Medallist
Veteran 10k Posts Shiny Penny
Dec 14, 2008
19,841
32,317
AFL Club
Essendon
Anyone like a flutter in here? Care to share any tips or multis you are sweating on? Futures afl bets, round by round fancies? Throw them in here...

I had a weird day yesterday on the punt, one of those days where everything goes freakishly right (rare)

To begin with I decided to only place 3 bets at Fleimgton-

Counter attack in the Newmarket at $9 which proceeded to throw it's rider and get scratched pre race, bet refunded (I'll call it a win)

Then in the Australia cup I get on Awesome Rock at $26 And prefferment at $9

So awesome rock wins, I get a nice big win! Prefferment comes second, sports bet refund that as part of their special deal....I'm pretty chuffed.

Then protest!, upheld!

I keep the original win. Then they go and pay out the win for second! So I get both....clearly an anomaly I'll take and run...

So im sitting here with a fat account looking for things to bet on, AFL specials caught my eye, some tasty stuff in there, I jumped on four


Any Crouch brother to have a 40 possession game pays $4

Yes please.

Steven and Armitage to combine for 75 possessions in a game pays $4.50

Thank you.

3 or more players to have 40 possession games for Sydney this year, $4.50

Tick.

Taylor Adams to score most dreamteam points for coll, $10

Just a nibble.

Gives something to follow this year.

Anyone got brownlow fancies? rising star? Coleman?

Anyhow hoped to start a thread we gamblers could banter and share tips in

Cheers
 
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I just have a few bets a year. No more than 7-8. Generally back someone in the Brownlow (went with a left field choice this year, Sloane), Liston Trophy (haven't decided yet. Matt Arnot from Port a big chance), AFL/VFL premiership (gone with West Coast and Williamstown this year), Melbourne Cup (best name usually) and have a couple of flutters at the footy every year.
 

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I thought West Tigers @ $2.18 tonight was value. Manly have been somewhat gutted, Wests had a good first round win and are back at Leichardt. I reckon Wests should've been favourites so I'll take it and see what happens.
 
Pweter said:
It's not exactly mind blowing odds but why are Leicester paying $1.61 against lowly Newcastle?
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Not sure, I think people are still expecting them to fall over.
 
For the record I tend to punt on AFL, NRL, Super Rugby, NBA and soccer (EPL, Serie A, Spanish La Liga, Bundesliga, Portugese Primera Liga).

Not a serious punter, definitely more a mug punter. I'm trying to get out of the habit of placing multis.
 

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This is a story my mate once told me - every now and then a loop hole presents itself if you are open to looking for it!

The year was 2003 and the 50 over cricket world cup was being co-hosted by South Africa, Zimbabwe and Kenya. I was lying in bed listening to the radio one morning - KB and Dr. Turf on Sport 927 I think it was - and they were taking calls from listeners on all matters relating to sport. This guy calls in, and in a really unintelligent sounding Australian country drawl says something to the effect of, “Maaaate, this Cricket World Cup’s a joke.” “An absolute farce” he proclaimed. “Kenya, right, Kenya, might not even have to win another game, and they’re gonna make the semi finals maaaate” he went on. You could tell the radio hosts at the time didn’t place much credence in what he was saying. “Well thanks for that” they replied, struggling to contain the smug laughter, “Well, we’ll see how that pans out. Next on the line we have……”

I was doing afternoon and night shifts at the time, and as I went in to work I thought to myself let’s not dismiss this straight away. It’s worth an investigation at least. Without having done any research into the matter, I popped into the TAB on Elizabeth Street prior to my shift to see what the story was. I thought it 100-1 that the TAB would even be offering the right market to take advantage of such an occurrence. As I made my way through the options on screen, I was pleasantly surprised to find that they did have a “final four” market up. The first piece of the puzzle was in place, as remote as any chance of profits still seemed. A further click of the mouse and the good news just got better. There was Kenya, like a diamond in the rough, with the juicy figure of $26.00 next to its name. I had convinced myself that if there was anything greater than $10 on offer I would have a go and just hope to get lucky. When I saw the figure was nearly three times that, I didn’t hesitate. I rushed to the counter to feed my card through the scanner and hand my fifty dollar note to the attendant, almost panicking at the thought that the odds could be wound in with every second I wasted. The bet was on! The ticket the new pride and joy in my wallet! Fifty dollar stake to return $1300.00. A big sum of money for someone who earned that in a fortnight. Now I just had to figure out if this bet was any hope in hell of being successful!

The 2003 World cup did not follow the script right from the first game where co-hosts South Africa were pipped by the West Indies in a thriller. The Proteas would eventually fail to progress beyond the group stages. This was the case also for heavy weights Pakistan, England and the West Indies themselves. Famous upsets along the way included Kenya’s triumph over Sri Lanka in Nairobi and Canada beating Bangladesh in Durban. The other notable aspect of the tournament was the forfeited games. England forfeited their match with Zimbabwe, due to the political unrest in the country, and New Zealand did likewise for their match with Kenya in Nairobi, the latter would prove crucial. Earlier, the competition had begun with two groups of seven teams. After the initial pool games, the top three teams in each pool advanced to the next stage called the ‘super six’ phase. This format had only been used once previous – four years earlier for the world cup held in England. Many cricket fans were still not fully aware of how it worked. The key to the whole thing was that the table at the beginning of the super-six phase was not a clean slate. The points each advancing team had earned against the other two teams that qualified from the same pool stayed with them and carried through.

Advancing from pool A was Australia, India and the unfancied Zimbabwe. Kenya advanced from pool B finishing second, along with Sri Lanka who topped the table and New Zealand who managed third. In the pool matches, Kenya had managed to beat Sri Lanka by 53 runs on home soil in Nairobi, and they were handed another victory when New Zealand had forfeited against them. So when the new table was created at the start of the super-six phase, there at the top was the unlikeliest of names, Kenya, with the record of played two, won two, lost none! From there the equation was simple. Stay in the top four to make the semi-finals.

Once the whole situation had become clearer I was filled with excitement. I had a pep in my step and I puffed out my chest with pride as I showed my ticket to anyone who would bother to look. I was on the verge of something special! But I didn’t tell anyone of the mystery caller who had tipped me off – it was all my own research of course!! But I wasn’t there yet. There was still work to be done. Kenya’s three opponents in the super-six phase were naturally the three top teams from the other pool, India, Zimbabwe and Australia, which they played in that order. One victory would surely be enough. There’s no prizes for guessing which game gave them the best chance of cementing their spot in the final four. A total of 225 was never going to be enough for Kenya to hold off the Indians in their first super-six encounter at Newlands. The Indians cruised to a six wicket win the 47th over. But that was always going to be a free hit and my spirits were still high. The next game was the crucial encounter. I essentially had a team backed at $26.00 in an even two horse race.

I can remember on the evening of the big game I was doing an overnight shift at a hotel. The TV went on for a score update in just about every empty guest room I entered! Zimbabwe batted first, and to my delight, struggled their way to a paltry 133 runs at Goodyear Park in Bloemfontein, only Andy Flower offering any resistance with 63. Surely Kenya could not stuff this up. Run rate was out of the equation. They just had to survive and nudge the ball around for the victory. But all too often over the years I’d seen sides chasing low totals lulled into a false sense of security and collapse cheaply. But these Kenyans weren’t just content to scratch out a victory. No, they wanted to win in style! And that they did, chasing down the total off just 26 overs for the loss of just three wickets. It was the greatest day in Kenya’s short cricketing history. A semi-final berth at a world cup was assured. It was time to celebrate! And so too did I. For the rest of that shift my feet didn’t even touch the ground. There’s nothing like the feeling of free money!!

Thankyou mystery radio caller. I hope you profited as I did.
 
i reckon there is a tasy little multi brewing for tomorrow night - 2 legger

NZ to beat Aus in the t20 and Afganistahn to beat Sri lanka - pays $8

there is always the world cup bolter, ot atleast the few early upsets, Sri lanka are a rabble right now, Afganistahn are on a good roll, are playing on home continent too, i think they are overs at 3.75
 
I won't be touching any of the T20 games as anything can happen and it usually does.

I do think NZ are a solid bet as a dog though. I've always thought that the shorter the game, the better the NZ performance (generally speaking). It's like they get in a zone and execute well in the short forms but they can't perform across 5 days as the lesser talents they are generally forced to select (due to population size meaning a smaller talent pool) go missing for periods of the match.
 
Pweter said:
I won't be touching any of the T20 games as anything can happen and it usually does.

I do think NZ are a solid bet as a dog though. I've always thought that the shorter the game, the better the NZ performance (generally speaking). It's like they get in a zone and execute well in the short forms but they can't perform across 5 days as the lesser talents they are generally forced to select (due to population size meaning a smaller talent pool) go missing for periods of the match.
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That and we cant play spin and are still yet to adapt to the t20 form of the game
 
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