Random The hangar gambling thread - responsibly

Dec 14, 2008
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Off the back of my failed cash out loophole im trying again to crack a code. I think the less emotion you put into a bet, and the more data, the more chance you have to find the winning formula.

I had a discussion with a mate about NBA lines and how I couldn’t believe how bang on the bookies generally were with them – they always seem to be bang on, or very close to it.

I put this down to American sport and culture in general. They have a habit of breaking down their sports into finite plays rather than free flowing abstract types of action. When you do this things become predictable, and it is easier to assess and analyse the machinations of each play, and each combatant. In the end I reckon that’s how they get so close with the lines, the games are analysed to the extreme, the defence vs attack, the player v player ect ect. I reckon they have refined it down so well that they can nearly predict score lines and margins.

Anyway, I digress.

We met a bloke who claimed to be a full time sports gambler a while back, he kept explaining how he bet only on handicaps that had the possibility of even results i.e. 2 x payouts if you hedge bets. Then he used his own judgement to add 20% onto the outcome he believed more likely. Reckoned he was long ways in front.

When a handicap ends in 0.5 theres only one possible result, even you can have both outcomes occur. Hedge bets at 1.91. You're guaranteed worst case scenario to lose 0.09 per $2 bet. He adds 20% onto the outcome he's sees as more likely to occur to make that back plus a tidy proportionate gain. Best case scenario the bookies are right, scoop both results plus your extra dabble. Line is always close right? It's great maths, just need capital backing,
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Anyway last week Philly was +16.5 v San Antonio – they covered the line.

It was the perfect test case.

$1.20 on Philly = $2.34 win
$1 on SA = $1.87 win

Total Outlay = $2.20
Total Return = $4.21

Worst case scenario outcome would have seen you lose $0.33 if you saw Philly as the better choice.

However, actually you won $2.01 which percentage wise is huge.

Admittedly, odds more likely to have made $0.14 but with a low risk factor. But again the success of the theory revolves around putting your extra 20% on the right side.

We are creating a spread sheet to try and find a trend in the NBA line results, see if we can boost the % chance of hitting the right side to put my extra bet 20% on.

This is what we are doing…

Every winner will be broken down into one of four categories: A+ H- A- or H+

A = Away team, H = Home team, + = given the headstart, - = given the handicap

They go in pairs, so it’s A+ v H- and A- v H+

Just looking to see if we can get one to significantly outperform the other.

The line winners pay $1.95 each so you only need 52% strike rate to make a tiny profit.

Most likely it’ll just end up being 50/50 split, but we’ll see how we go.

Already, H- has double the amount of winners as A+, if that keeps up there is a trend to start following up on, but it’s a microscopic sample size, so not getting carried away.

A+ = 3 results.
H- = 6 results.
A- = 2 results.
H+ = 1 result.

TBC
 

Pweter

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I don't get it.... but I am slow so need it explained a little more. My simple country lad mind says

Philly was +16.5 v San Antonio – result SA by 16 so Philly cover

$1.20 on Philly +16.5 = $2.34 win
$1 on SA -16.5 = $1 lost

Total Outlay = $2.20
Total Return = $2.34

I just can't see how SA won to give you the $4.21 return.
 
Dec 14, 2008
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I don't get it.... but I am slow so need it explained a little more. My simple country lad mind says

Philly was +16.5 v San Antonio – result SA by 16 so Philly cover

$1.20 on Philly +16.5 = $2.34 win
$1 on SA -16.5 = $1 lost

Total Outlay = $2.20
Total Return = $2.34

I just can't see how SA won to give you the $4.21 return.

The .5 swings both ways to my knowledge
 
Apr 1, 2008
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+16.5 and -16.5 will always have one winner and one loser, that's the point of the line - a 16 point margin swings one way, a 17 point margin the other. If you can beat the bookie often enough to outweigh their skim, and do so on a regular basis, you're a genius - or a charlatan.

What you're actually aiming for here is arbitrage across multiple books to lock in a small, guaranteed profit, then parlaying that profit into an actual bet. Those are unconnected processes though - the arb doesn't make the bet any safer.

Similarly, while sometimes you can find an arb with an "overlap", you're still gambling on that overlap coming through. You could (assuming availability of markets) get a better guaranteed profit by betting the line straight, without punting on a particular margin. Essentially, what you're doing is equivalent to taking some of that profit and betting it on a margin equivalent to the overlap.

Further, arbing isn't sustainable as a real income stream - bookies will cap or close your account sooner or later. Nor is the second leg, or bookies would be bankrupt.
 
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Apr 1, 2008
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And in terms of the accuracy of lines, I think it's a three-parter. Some sports are just more predictable. A soccer team can massively dominate play yet lose to the woodwork and a lucky shot on the counter. You just don't get that disparity in basketball, or even footy. So, a bookie only needs to estimate performance, not luck.

You also need to factor in market size. There are far greater resources being brought to bear from both sides of the table on estimating NBA results than there are on AFL results. Part of that is data and modelling, but a lot is sentiment as expressed through money - the wisdom of crowds, if you like.

Finally, there's an element of confirmation bias - a game that hits the predicted margin stands out far more than one that doesn't.
 
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Pweter

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You also need to factor in market size. There are far greater resources being brought to bear from both sides of the table on estimating NBA results than there are on AFL results. Part of that is data and modelling, but a lot is sentiment as expressed through money - the wisdom of crowds, if you like.

"The public".

There are some people that almost exclusively bet against the public under certain scenarios like where a line moves in the opposite direction to the money i.e. -3.5, 70% of bets ("the public") are on it, line goes to -3.

I'm not much of a gambler so haven't tried to find where the public money is for Australian sports, but I've read plenty about it on US sports betting forums so assume the stats are found easily enough, you just have to find a place to bring you the stats, and be patient to find your spots.
 

Shane Hird

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Parish 40+ disposals vs Hawks.

Easy money.

IMG_2337.PNG
 

Shane Hird

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he might not get that in the whole season. I hope I am wrong. I think he will get 28 posessions this game 5 tackles and a goal.

25+ is @$2.50

Even easier money.
 
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