Politics The Hangar Politics Thread

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I think Victoria will be telling. If the Libs lose blue ribbon seats (a la the Victoria state election), then the swing will be on and they won't be able to make up enough ground in other states. QLD is obviously important too, but I think Victoria will be the best early indicator of where the election goes. An early large swing to Labor in those blue ribbon Liberal seats and the Libs have lost the election and Labor should comfortably take a majority. A closer contest in those seats, or a smaller swing and it could be a long night.

Side note, not much has really happened so far this week and the ads black out starts at midnight tonight, so I don't think much will change either way between now and Saturday night. I expect a 2PP of around 51/49 (as per Newspoll) which is probably a 6-8 seat ALP majority.

Side side note, the UAP influence will be interesting to watch.
How many sides can one man possibly have?

I ******* love election coverage, bummed that our game is on Saturday night. Will have both on for sure though.
 

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Whispering_Jack

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How many sides can one man possibly have?

I ******* love election coverage, bummed that our game is on Saturday night. Will have both on for sure though.
I'll be at Bill's election night party - so I'll not be attending the game :frowning: Not much gets in the way of attending the footy for me, it's pretty much the occasional wedding and this!
 
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I think Victoria will be telling. If the Libs lose blue ribbon seats (a la the Victoria state election), then the swing will be on and they won't be able to make up enough ground in other states. QLD is obviously important too, but I think Victoria will be the best early indicator of where the election goes. An early large swing to Labor in those blue ribbon Liberal seats and the Libs have lost the election and Labor should comfortably take a majority. A closer contest in those seats, or a smaller swing and it could be a long night.

Side note, not much has really happened so far this week and the ads black out starts at midnight tonight, so I don't think much will change either way between now and Saturday night. I expect a 2PP of around 51/49 (as per Newspoll) which is probably a 6-8 seat ALP majority.

Side side note, the UAP influence will be interesting to watch.
I don't think Victoria is indicative of the rest of the country any more than WA is at this election.
 

eth-dog

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Labor need to gain 7 seats. I think they can more than cover that with places like Corangamite, Dunkley, Chisholm, La Trobe, Forde, Flynn, Petrie, Gilmore, Robertson all likely to fall IMO
 

Pweter

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RIP Bob, a true aussie larrikin.
I am neither labour or liberal, I vote according to what suits me, my family and my electorate, so don't read this as labour bashing.

I think this will make many folk who simply don't give a **** use it as a reason to give a sympathy vote to labour.

Hawke passing will see plenty say he drank a mean yard glass and he basically said a sickie is ok if the circumstances warrant it, therefore they'll vote labour as a salute.

Compulsory voting has as many positives as it does negatives.

Having said that, he was a legend of Australian politics and his life is a great Australian story. Vale Bob Hawke.
 
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I am neither labour or liberal, I vote according to what suits me, my family and my electorate, so don't read this as labour bashing.

I think this will make many folk who simply don't give a **** use it as a reason to give a sympathy vote to labour.

Hawke passing will see plenty say he drank a mean yard glass and he basically said a sickie is ok if the circumstances warrant it, therefore they'll vote labour as a salute.

Compulsory voting has as many positives as it does negatives.

Having said that, he was a legend of Australian politics and his life is a great Australian story. Vale Bob Hawke.
The biggest negative about compulsory voting is that every idiot has their say
 

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Compulsory voting tends to stop idiots from getting into the top job though, since you can't pander to a minority to get elected in any overwhelming sense. Causes more of a race to the middle rather than a race to the extremes. And if that fails, the frequency of elections and bicameral parliamentary system tends to stop governments from making many changes at a time anyway. Not that you don't get the odd populist with a senate majority that tries to inflict a bit of damage, but the short election cycle usually sees them turfed out root and stem, sometimes even turfed from their own seat, with an opposition bent on reversing the most unpopular changes elected after them.

Can be good or bad but what it is by nature is necessarily conservative with built in anti-stupid measures, which is hardly the worst outcome I can dream up.


/already typed this before I saw your post Jade ... think your version was shorter and sweeter but I already bothered to type this so too bad 😅
 

Jade

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Compulsory voting tends to stop idiots from getting into the top job though, since you can't pander to a minority to get elected in any overwhelming sense. Causes more of a race to the middle rather than a race to the extremes. And if that fails, the frequency of elections and bicameral parliamentary system tends to stop governments from making many changes at a time anyway. Not that you don't get the odd populist with a senate majority that tries to inflict a bit of damage, but the short election cycle usually sees them turfed out root and stem, sometimes even turfed from their own seat, with an opposition bent on reversing the most unpopular changes elected after them.

Can be good or bad but what it is by nature is necessarily conservative with built in anti-stupid measures, which is hardly the worst outcome I can dream up.


/already typed this before I saw your post Jade ... think your version was shorter and sweeter but I already bothered to type this so too bad 😅
Haha, you at least went through a few points I didn't mention.

It was Whispering_Jack that ultimately convinced me that compulsory voting was necessary (not that I was opposed, just unconvinced).

As it stands, we have major parties (the only ones capable of forming government) having to appease a large and apathetic group - the race to the center you mentioned.

If only those that were highly motivated to vote did so, we'd be in the ****.
 
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Haha, you at least went through a few points I didn't mention.

It was Whispering_Jack that ultimately convinced me that compulsory voting was necessary (not that I was opposed, just unconvinced).

As it stands, we have major parties (the only ones capable of forming government) having to appease a large and apathetic group - the race to the center you mentioned.

If only those that were highly motivated to vote did so, we'd be in the ****.
If I was being an idealist I'd want a few parties forming a coalition every time the way a lot of European parliaments do, perhaps a few more independents getting in to represent their local residents rather than some national party brand. (sidebar/ Was it here or twitter that I saw Morrison doing the liberal party function with his family on stage and no liberal party logos anywhere to be seen? Presidential wannabe or has the brand itself taken a dive?)

I think that'd be the best compromise for more true representation without being too taxing on the voter (i.e. not direct democracy).
 

Jade

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If I was being an idealist I'd want a few parties forming a coalition every time the way a lot of European parliaments do, perhaps a few more independents getting in to represent their local residents rather than some national party brand. (sidebar/ Was it here or twitter that I saw Morrison doing the liberal party function with his family on stage and no liberal party logos anywhere to be seen? Presidential wannabe or has the brand itself taken a dive?)

I think that'd be the best compromise for more true representation without being too taxing on the voter (i.e. not direct democracy).
Direct democracy is a horrible idea, even if it could be pulled off.

I could be wrong, but I think we're in the midst of probably a 15-20 year swing towards micro parties, independents and larger cross bench parties. I hope we are, that would be my preference.
 
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Direct democracy is a horrible idea, even if it could be pulled off.

I could be wrong, but I think we're in the midst of probably a 15-20 year swing towards micro parties, independents and larger cross bench parties. I hope we are, that would be my preference.
Yep, I postal voted this year so I've already done mine. Was very disappointed to only get four candidates in the local seat, and then the actual senate itself is mostly either right wing micro parties or like the HEMP party? :think: Not a lot of choice and my party of preference wasn't represented at all, I think they might be focusing on state politics. :(
 

Jade

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Yep, I postal voted this year so I've already done mine. Was very disappointed to only get four candidates in the local seat, and then the actual senate itself is mostly either right wing micro parties or like the HEMP party? :think: Not a lot of choice and my party of preference wasn't represented at all, I think they might be focusing on state politics. :(
Which is?
 
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What are these?



What is this?
Liberalism is the fake 'centre', just as far removed from conservatism and socialism as they are from each other. They are the three groups.

Two party systems around the world are falling to pieces because both parties in the system have become predominantly liberal. Britain is a great example.
 

frenchconnection

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I know the Greens are just as big a threat but it's predicated on the Liberal primary vote is around the 47% mark. I think the ALP are more likely to attract that 5% of Liberal voters than the Greens in terms of primary voting and on top of that I can't see many of them preferencing the Greens over the Liberals. I would rather the Greens win, don't get me wrong, but I do feel as if it's more likely to be Labor. In any case I'll be voting for Jason Ball.
All I know is that I will be putting the Greens last
 

un_eggs

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Probably because some sort of ideological conditioning makes that poster overlook the need for a party that promotes policies that favour the disadvantaged, the marginalised, the environment and progressive issues, ahead of corporate issues and the failed notion of economic salvation. I’ll be putting them first because those issues need to be brought to the forefront of policy making.
 
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