The Hawthorn 3peat: is it an accident of history?

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It might be a reason why some clubs couldn't bounce back up the ladder but it had little effect on the teams contesting finals.
maybe, but that's kind of the point. The clubs who would have risen, in a seven year period, couldn't. No-one is disputing Hawthorn have performed as a club during that period as well
 
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What surrounded the Collingwood 1927-30 and Carlton 1906-08 successes?
well, apart from the fact there was no equalisation then, no draft, no trading, so there's no reason to necessarily compare them you mean?
 
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Tyler Hodges

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Preface: what Hawthorn have achieved is magnificent. Clarkson is, in my opinion a genius coach; and the club have been very canny with their list management.

However. The most recent period of AFL history is completely and utterly unprecedented and unique.

During this time the AFL simultaneously established 2 new clubs, and in doing so distorted the trade/draft situation in a monumental fashion. The effects of this enormous distortion are still being felt even today, but at the time the effects were so massive that the implications could only be equally as large.

In real terms what it meant was that several generations of the elite players went almost exclusively to just two clubs, which was further compounded by devices such as mini-drafts and compensation picks given out for unsigned stars (and on-traded, leading to further distortions) for many subsequent years.

Whilst there were many implications to this gigantic upset of the natural order one of them was plain, and inarguable: the teams who were at or about the top of the ladder at that point were, via an accident of history, gifted an unprecedented opportunity to sustain their dominance.

Quite simply, instead of getting 3-4 or more genuinely good players per year for several years, the chasing pack got only 1. This translated into a situation whereby, arguably, it became incredibly difficult, if not impossible, for the them to catch the top performers.

This is plainly illustrated in the reality that, despite all of the explicit mechanisms to promote equalisation: for the last decade the same 4 teams have shared the Premiership spoils, with the 7 cups since the inception of GC being shared between just 4 clubs. All of whom, it turns out, were either at the top or on the cusp of success precisely when GC and GWS were brought into the competition and the trade/draft environment radically distorted. This is not a coincidence.

Now, please read the preface again. This is not to downplay Hawthorn's achievements; rather, it's to recognise, interpret and understand the extremely unusual conditions that have lead to the current status quo.

I'd be interested in any thoughtful comments on how far people see this distortion having an effect, given the current ominous look of Greater Western Sydney.

Do you agree or not, that the Hawthorn 3peat was in many ways an accident of history?
This could well be a factor, you have to look at the teams who have sufffered the most from the introduction of GC and GWS. If the hawks hadn't won each GF so convincingly this discussion would have more merit. The lower teams have been hurt by this the most and if they had more picks you have to be realistic and know they weren't the ones that could have stopped the threepeat anyhow. Your argument could apply if say West Coast, Adelaide, Port, Freo ect picked up a few more Fyfe like players with late first, Early 2nd round picks to be more competitive, but it takes time for youth so we are just now entering the window your referring to.
 

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Every club knew that the expansion teams were coming in, Hawthorn just planned for it far better than anyone else...they deserve every accolade they get.
sure; so you're saying it was an accident that they were, like Sydney, one of the teams who were in the perfect position to capitalise on other clubs' inability to catch up?
 

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  • 7 years is a long time, so claiming that "only the bottom teams" were effected is grossly misleading.
  • To say it takes 5-7 years for players to reach their prime is also sophistry; as you can see with WB and Bontempelli; or Sydney and Heeney; one good player can make a difference, even if they are young - when in a good side
  • Yes Hawthorn moved down the draft but that's irrelevant when it comes to sustaining success as your drop was relative to every other club
  • Your first point makes no sense whatsoever
  • You are right that the event of free agency paired with the lure of success alongside Hawthorn's already assisted success is another external factor in sustaining Hawthorn's success

7 years ? What ? It was 5 years from the 10-11 drafts to the competed 3peat.

Hawthorns drop was relative to the other sides ? Exactly. so no advantage there.

FA agency cost the Hawks 2 top 15 picks for Buddy. Potentially Bont and Cripps.

Name some players and what teams would they could have gone to that would get them over a 13-15 Hawks with Prestia, Devon Smith in the side ?

I'll wait.
 
This helped:

Draft 09 -13.

Stratton, Suckling, Duryea, I.Smith, Litherland, Puopolo, B.Hill, Breust, T.O'B, Brand, Cegler, Hartung, Sicily, Langford, Anderson.

Trade & FA 09 - 13

Gibson, Burgoyne, Hale, Gunston, Simpkin, Lake, Spangher, Mcevoy.

Among others who have had an impact over the 09-present.

Sent from my E6653 using Tapatalk
 
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maybe, but that's kind of the point. The clubs who would have risen, in a seven year period, couldn't. No-one is disputing Hawthorn have performed as a club during that period as well
Frankly I reckon how the AFL introduced FA had more of an effect.

Sure Hawthorn lost Franklin but they gained by being a destination club.

Most of the bottom clubs just lost talent. Due to the expansion club concessions the draft wasn't going to replace that talent.

Also, in terms of teams bouncing up the ladder, the one best positioned was probably the one that's been fighting in the courts for the past four years.

Bottom line is every period has unique challenges and the Hawks have 3-peated in a very difficult era for list managers. That tells me they probably would have excelled anyway had those conditions been different.
 
sure; so you're saying it was an accident that they were, like Sydney, one of the teams who were in the perfect position to capitalise on other clubs' inability to catch up?

I don't think it was coincidence...well managed teams would have been planning for the arrival of the Suns and the Giants from the minute the idea of expansion was ever mentioned by AFL House.
 
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Free agency along with medal chasers like Lake and Frawley certainly helped as well(did not forget about Franklin). In fact I think free agency has done more to keep the cellar dwellers down than the comprimised drafts.
 

Tyler Hodges

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Another consideration is that during this time, these 2 sides levelled the playingfield as opposed to spreading it. Everyone could count on 2-4 more wins per year during 2011-2014- not just hawks, and i Doubt an extra first round pick helped more than a couple of extra wins as far as competitiveness during this time ( not long term benefit). All dynasties are dirty when you look under the microscope (Brisbane queenland zoning, West Coast zoning etc) so as far as triumphs goes hawks are clean as it comes. If this is an argument now, oh the fun well all be having on BF when the GWS train starts rolling :(
 
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Which clubs from near the bottom would have won those flags with a few extra picks higher up the draft?

We were also pushed way down the drafting order but guess what, we got smart with trading, getting in players like Lake, Hale, McEvoy, Burgoyne, Gibson, Gunston, Frawley, Ceglar. Any team could have taken Smith at 19 or Puopolo at 66. We persisted with rookies like Breust and Suckling and created an environment where low picks such as Stratton, Duryea, Shiels became good players.

OP is making it sound like we had a top team when the compromised drafts started and still have that same team.
We have gone through a rebuild since then, I think there are only 6 guys who have 4 flags.
Quite frankly I find posts like the OP as a loser victim mentality, it's always someone/something elses fault.

As for the chasing pack getting 3-4 genuinely good players a year for several years, lol, explain to me how someone mid table would have got 3-4 good players a year for a few years, fantasy stuff. And the period of domination, history has shown that we often go through periods where a few teams dominate. We had North/Crows/Lions win 7 out of 8 flags not long ago. The 4 teams who have played off in the 3peat were all outside the 8 at the end of 2009 yet somehow managed to get to the top.
 

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Preface: what Hawthorn have achieved is magnificent. Clarkson is, in my opinion a genius coach; and the club have been very canny with their list management.

However. The most recent period of AFL history is completely and utterly unprecedented and unique.

During this time the AFL simultaneously established 2 new clubs, and in doing so distorted the trade/draft situation in a monumental fashion. The effects of this enormous distortion are still being felt even today, but at the time the effects were so massive that the implications could only be equally as large.

In real terms what it meant was that several generations of the elite players went almost exclusively to just two clubs, which was further compounded by devices such as mini-drafts and compensation picks given out for unsigned stars (and on-traded, leading to further distortions) for many subsequent years.

Whilst there were many implications to this gigantic upset of the natural order one of them was plain, and inarguable: the teams who were at or about the top of the ladder at that point were, via an accident of history, gifted an unprecedented opportunity to sustain their dominance.

Quite simply, instead of getting 3-4 or more genuinely good players per year for several years, the chasing pack got only 1. This translated into a situation whereby, arguably, it became incredibly difficult, if not impossible, for the them to catch the top performers.

This is plainly illustrated in the reality that, despite all of the explicit mechanisms to promote equalisation: for the last decade the same 4 teams have shared the Premiership spoils, with the 7 cups since the inception of GC being shared between just 4 clubs. All of whom, it turns out, were either at the top or on the cusp of success precisely when GC and GWS were brought into the competition and the trade/draft environment radically distorted. This is not a coincidence.

Now, please read the preface again. This is not to downplay Hawthorn's achievements; rather, it's to recognise, interpret and understand the extremely unusual conditions that have lead to the current status quo.

I'd be interested in any thoughtful comments on how far people see this distortion having an effect, given the current ominous look of Greater Western Sydney.

Do you agree or not, that the Hawthorn 3peat was in many ways an accident of history?

Even if right, its not unique.

1925 VFL expanded by 33%
1925-30 Collingwood six grand finals four premierships in a row: Geelong Melbourne Richmond the only other participants


Also Hawthorn did significantly boost their list (up to a third) during that 'difficult' recruiting period

Oh and be sure to adjust the title to four in october
 
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Who would've 'caught up' from the 2010/2011 drafts?

If Tom Lynch, Adam Treloar, Jeremy Cameron etc. were all spread over the 16 clubs that existed prior to the 2011 season would that really have had a big influence on 2013-2015? I would've thought the impact would be being felt now, after the 3-peat has already occurred. I mean a team with Cameron or Chad Wingard for example would've been noticeably stronger, but it's only now that guys like Coniglio, Hall, Greene etc. are really starting to assert themselves on the comp.

Hawthorn have had an interesting run. Were arguably stronger in 2012 when they didn't win it than in 2014/15 when they did. Despite the woefully meek opposition on the day I still rate 2015 the highest playing 3 finals with two trips to Perth to make the GF.

It should also be noted that FA was introduced around the same time that Hawthorn started playing in GFs and while it brought them Frawley (yay?) it came at the expense of Franklin. It's not often throughout history that a rival can just add a Franklin or Dangerfield to their list.
 
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Another consideration is that during this time, these 2 sides levelled the playingfield as opposed to spreading it. Everyone could count on 2-4 more wins per year during 2011-2014- not just hawks,

Errr, how does EVERY team getting extra wins help to level the field? The ladder is determined relative to other teams, so if EVERY team gets an extra 2 wins, for example, then it makes no difference. It doesn't level the rest of the field, or spread it at all.

If anything, when the easy beat teams get an upset win and take those expected wins away, then that spreads the field.
 

Tyler Hodges

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Errr, how does EVERY team getting extra wins help to level the field? The ladder is determined relative to other teams, so if EVERY team gets an extra 2 wins, for example, then it makes no difference. It doesn't level the rest of the field, or spread it at all.

If anything, when the easy beat teams get an upset win and take those expected wins away, then that spreads the field.
Because your chance of vsing a better side than yourself twice is diminished, ie Melbourne faced GC and GWS twice as opposed to Hawks and Sydney twice. The lower sides were fixtured with easier draws, ie GC and GWS twice...
 
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Because your chance of vsing a better side than yourself twice is diminished, ie Melbourne faced GC and GWS twice as opposed to Hawks and Sydney twice. The lower sides were fixtured with easier draws, ie GC and GWS twice...

Right. Okay, that makes sense then. Again highlighting one of the myriad of AFL distortions.
 

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You can see by the example set by Hawthorn in 08' that this is the case. It has been pretty well accepted that 08 was about 3-4 years ahead of where Hawthorns dominance was supposed to arrive, which it did. But what it did show was that they had a fantastic young team and were going to dominate. They were as set up as any team to handle the expansion era with ease. They had a list with the best young talent at the time.

Then, over the next several years, other clubs weren't able to inject young talent. Hawthorn already had the young talent, were able to keep the list together, and hit there peak at exactly the the right time where the rest of the AFL would essentially stagnate for at least 2 years before they could gain young talent of any relevance.


PS: I don't mean to take anything away from Hawthorn. You can hardly blame them for having the best young talent in the AFL before the expansion era. It was fantastic management by them to ensure they drafted and traded for the right people. They hit far more often than they missed, so they weren't required to make up for any mistakes in the draft or any other means of adding talent. Another achievement is they have managed to keep the group together and haven't lost anyone of relevance.
 
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Hawthorn have been assisted by a number of AFL distortions:
  • Expansion teams compromising the draft
  • Free agency opportunities
  • Getting to play the GF at their home ground no matter where they finish
They're the rules though, and everyone knows them. It's a handicap event.

Hawthorn have clearly been excellently managed and coached during that period with an exceptional game plan as well as shrewd recruiting.
 
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