The Hawthorn 3peat: is it an accident of history?

[Mr Chuckles]

When we went back to back in 13/14, we were pretty much universally respected for our achievement and for the quality of our team. But it seems like winning the third one has somehow downgraded our status in a lot of people's eyes, which I find quite bizarre to be honest.

 

[JohnnyFontane90]

just for the record for everyone shitting on hawthorns achievements over the past few years: do you know who hawthorn would have drafted in 2010 if it wasn't for the expansion concessions? Tom Lynch of the Gold Coast Suns. forward line: roughead, franklin, gunston, bruest, rioli, lynch. let that sink in.

JF out

 

[Billyc]

When we went back to back in 13/14, we were pretty much universally respected for our achievement and for the quality of our team. But it seems like winning the third one has somehow downgraded our status in a lot of people's eyes, which I find quite bizarre to be honest.

It does seem that the more flags we win, the worse our opponents from previous years become. Of course nobody said it in those actual seasons (Fremantle had the "best defensive pressure ever", Swans had the "best forward line ever" etc).

There are a lot of very bitter and unhappy opposition fans who like to clutch at straws while we binge watch premierships. Long may it continue.

 

[offtherails9]

There are approximately 80 players currently in the league that wouldn't otherwise be if it wasn't for GC and GWS. That says it all really. Most of the damage was done in pushing the other 16 established clubs to find gems (elite talent such as Hodge, Rioli, Franklin, Roughead etc...) outside the Top 20 (i.e Sam Mitchell) which is difficult to do.

This is what I consider to be some of hawthorn's best players over the past decade with a clear pattern emerging.

Hodge: 1st Pick
Roughead: 2nd Pick (Priority Pick)
Rioli: 12th Pick
Lewis: 7th Pick
Franklin: 5th Pick
Burgoyne: 12th Pick
Gibson: 7th Rookie Draft
Frawley: 12th Pick
Gunston: 29th Pick
Sewell: 7th Rookie Draft
Crawford: 13th Pick

They are the engine that drives their success, which allows supporting cast members like Puopolo to shine and appear to be better than they are.
Gunston is one of the few exceptions who although not drafted with a Top 20 pick it was obvious from his first few years at the Crows that he was a lot better than his 29th Pick suggested; hawthorn got a bargain when he forced his way to them.

Really weird argument you've got yourself into here. Sewell and Gibson were rookie picks, that means that every club overlooked them multiple times in the National Draft so they were picked up later on because nobody else wanted them - not top 20 picks at all.

Their supporting cast has thrived in a fantastic team environment with terrific coaching around them. Perhaps if we picked up a few Geelong hacks they could be successful in such an environment too.

 

[Bluelegs]

Firstly, I think the impact of those distorted drafts is only now coming to fruition, not in 2012-15. It takes a good 80-100 games for players to really develop. The recent strength of Hawthorn, Sydney and Geelong is based on previous drafts (2001, 2004 & 2009 in particular)

Secondly, although some clubs missed out on high end talent, the total pool of high end talent is unchanged. Therefore the challengers should still be just as strong, except maybe now it sits with GWS and Gold Coast instead of a Richmond or Brisbane.

Do you have any actual data to back this theory up? What clubs suffered? Who did they miss out on? Why are they unable to challenge the top tier?

There are plenty of players at both GWS and Gold Coast who were in those drafts and have been very solid over the past few years.

 

[autocol]

with the 7 cups since the inception of GC being shared between just 4 clubs.

I haven't the time right now to collect the data and perform the analysis, but I wouldn't think this is a particularly unlikely outcome, statistically. In fact, you only have to look at the last 30 years of data on this page to see that four premiers in any given seven year stretch is pretty much the average.

Conclusion - the facts don't support your hypothesis.

 

[Suntory Boss Coffee]

Absolutely miniscule reason in the scheme of things. 0.00001% of the reason for Hawthorn 3peating

 

[blue harvest]

That's your opinion, which you state as fact.

It's also a simplistic view, as it doesn't consider the flow on effects of increased salary cap space or an enhanced trading position etc.

Man, you Hawthorn people get so defensive.

We just get sick of people thinking we got all our players from FA and so it's been a huge advantage for us. Clearly it hasn't.

Without FA at least we would have got something decent for Buddy and still freed up the cap space.
We would also have got enhanced trading positions if the others we lost though FA went via trades.

 

[Suntory Boss Coffee]

Free agency opportunities

Why this continues to be rolled out boggles the mind.
LOST: Lance Franklin, Clinton Young, Xavier Ellis, Tom Murphy
GAIN: James Frawley, Jon Simpkin

 

[blue harvest]

just for the record for everyone shitting on hawthorns achievements over the past few years: do you know who hawthorn would have drafted in 2010 if it wasn't for the expansion concessions? Tom Lynch of the Gold Coast Suns. forward line: roughead, franklin, gunston, bruest, rioli, lynch. let that sink in.

JF out

Buddy to CHB?

 

[rumply]

I'm not sure that undertaking an experimental drug regime and getting busted counts as bad luck.

You can be obtuse if you like, it's an easy out instead of discussing the issue.

 

[JackFlash]

I wish we won 3 in a row, we should've won 5 in a row. Cats under performed IMO. Hawthorn have suffered due to the tainted Essendon saga and the new teams arriving which has seen a lot of non competitive games. In reality they haven't had a lot of real competition in what could be considered some weak years. Their Grand Finals have all been against interstate teams. The Hawks are good, but they are no where near as good as their teams of the 80's.

 

[Furn2]

You don't lose players because of FA.

You lose them because of the salary cap (or for personal reasons).

Free agency is the mechanism that allows other clubs to sign them.

Yes but you get bugger all for them via compensation when you finish up top.

A 26 year old Buddy would have been one of the biggest trade deals of all time.

We got pick 19.

 

[Randy Campbell]

I think that if you believe the AFL's equalization measure work you are blinded by ignorance.

 

[gavaniacono]

One can only create then seize all the opportunities. My club should have had one more flag in the 70s. Missed out on that one. Dons should have had 2 more under Sheeds. Hawks seem to be taking every one they get.

 

[Adelaide Hawk]

Why this continues to be rolled out boggles the mind.
LOST: Lance Franklin, Clinton Young, Xavier Ellis, Tom Murphy
GAIN: James Frawley, Jon Simpkin

It's like all the other tripe that keeps coming up in this forum. People have crapped on for so long, they now believe their bullshit to be fact. There is only one fact. Hawthorn have won 3 flags in the past 3 years. The other clubs ... that's 3 x 17 = 51 ..... have won 0.

When another club eventually does win a flag, boy am I going to have some fun telling them how crap they are.

 

[Adelaide Hawk]

One can only create then seize all the opportunities. My club should have had one more flag in the 70s. Missed out on that one. Dons should have had 2 more under Sheeds. Hawks seem to be taking every one they get.

We missed 2012

 

[gavaniacono]

We missed 2012

I feel your pain.

 

[Hawkas1988]

It's like all the other tripe that keeps coming up in this forum. People have crapped on for so long, they now believe their bullshit to be fact. There is only one fact. Hawthorn have won 3 flags in the past 3 years. The other clubs ... that's 3 x 17 = 51 ..... have won 0.

When another club eventually does win a flag, boy am I going to have some fun telling them how crap they are.

Purely coping mechanisms for some opposition supporters when thinking about our 3peat.

The majority of opposition supporters outside of BF that I've spoken to about it have nothing but respect for what we've achieved and don't try and downplay parts of it as a way of coping with their own teams lack of success or hatred/jealousy of Hawthorn.

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[Suntory Boss Coffee]

Who is to say we wouldn't have got even better if GWS and GC didn't come into the competition. IF they don't exist then the kids they picked would have got picked up by Hawthorn and all the other clubs.

 

[gavaniacono]

OP has a point.

Look at the other lucky athletes at the Olympics

3 consecutive Olympic Gold Medals in the 100m and 200m.
Lucky that all the Russian athletes got disqualified for taking drugs!

Here is another lucky athlete.
Lucky that the Chinese swimmers got disqualified for taking drugs and the Australians choked or had sore throats.

Hey Phelpsy, how many consecutive premierships do you think Hawthorn will win this year?

If Phelps is correct and Hawks win 4 flags this year, they are even better than I thought.

 

[Beerfish]

The majority of opposition supporters outside of BF that I've spoken to about it have nothing but respect for what we've achieved and don't try and downplay parts of it as a way of coping with their own teams lack of success or hatred/jealousy of Hawthorn.

Ever thought that maybe they're just humouring you because they can't be bothered listening to the half hour of chest beating bluster that would follow if they didn't?

 

[I Rock]

It's no accident. It's simply taking advantage of a situation that all clubs were forced to deal with. Thread title should read Hawthorns Three Peat: Is It A Result Of The Best Forsight In AFL/VFL History.

 

[Hawkas1988]

Ever thought that maybe they're just humouring you because they can't be bothered listening to the half hour of chest beating bluster that would follow if they didn't?

Ever thought that maybe people can just talk good footy and not be immature with childish bragging or insults?

FWIW, I've never once bragged about my own team to my mates or others in the real world. I doubt I've ever really done it on here even. It's not as if I've gone out and won the games.

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[Beerfish]

Ever thought that maybe people can just talk good footy and not be immature with childish bragging or insults?

FWIW, I've never once bragged about my own team to my mates or others in the real world. I doubt I've ever really done it on here even. It's not as if I've gone out and won the games.

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I'll take that as a no.