Analysis The historic value of our traded draft picks (2000-2015)

[Billyc]

There is a lot of talk about us overpaying for O'Meara and Mitchell and "trading away our future" to get these exceptionally talented 22 and 23 year olds with 7-8 years of footy ahead of them. Let's look at the picks we gave away from 2000-2015. I won't include 2016 draftees given it is too early.

Pick 10 (ultimately involved in O'Meara trade. Our 2017 first pick unlikely to be lower than 10):
Nakia Cockatoo
Nathan Freeman
Joe Daniher (F/S) / Troy Menzel
Liam Sumner
Daniel Gorringe
Jake Melsham
Phil Davis
Patrick Dangerfield
Marcus Drum
Chris Egan
Ryley Dunn
Jason Laycock
Sam Power
Jordan McMahon

Verdict:
Good AFL footballers = 4/14 (29%)
Better than Mitchell / O'Meara = 1/14 (7%)
Superstars = 1/14 (7%)

Pick 14 (2016 first round pick - traded our for Tom Mitchell)
Jake Lever
Cameron McCarthy
Aiden Corr
Devon Smith
Brodie Smith
Lewis Jetta
Ayce Cordy
Jack Grimes
Nathan Brown (coll)
Grant Birchall
Angus Monfries
Fergus Watts
Daniel Bell
Ashley Watson
Daniel Harris

Verdict:
Good AFL footballers = 7/14 (50%)
Better than Mitchell / O'Meara = 0/14 (0%)
Superstars = 0/14 (0%)


Pick 23 (traded for Hill, ontraded to St Kilda for pick 10)
Pat McKenna
Matt Crouch
Marco Paparone
Murray Newman
Cameron Guthrie
Koby Stevens
David Zaharakis
Tayte Pears
Paul Stewart
Ryan Cook
Sean Rusling
Matthew Moody
Tom Lonergan
Charlie Gardiner
Drew Petrie
Verdict:
Good AFL footballers = 5/14 (36%)
Better than Mitchell / O'Meara = 0/14 (0%)
Superstars = 0/14 (0%)

Pick 36 (traded to St Kilda for pick 10)
Ed Vickers-Willis
Jarred Jansen
Tanner Smith
Rory Taggert
Aaron Young
Joel Houghton
Ashley Smith
Steven Browne
Alwyn Davey
Jake Edwards
Luke McGuane
Chris Johnson
Tim Callan
Sam Mitchell
Jeremy Humm
Verdict:
Good AFL footballer = 1/14 (7%)
Better than Mitchell / O'Meara (1/14) (7%)
Superstars = 1/14 (7%)

Pick 48 (traded to Carlton as part of O'Meara trade)
Matthew Goodyear
N/A – Dylan Main
Dean Kent
Jordan Murdoch
Alex Browne
Jesse Crichton
Nicholas Heyne
Jarrad Boumann
David Mackay
Alan Obst
Nathan Ablett (F/S) – Mark McGough
Heath Shaw (F/S) – Tom Logan
Greg Edgcumb
Simon Cox
Matthew Smith

Verdict:
Good AFL footballer = 2/14 (14%)
Better than Mitchell / O'Meara = 0/14 (0%)
Superstars = 0/14 (0%)


TOTAL
Good AFL footballers = 19/70 (27%)
Better than Mitchell / O'Meara = 2/70 (3%)
Superstar = 2/70 (3%)

Final Verdict: Draft picks are seriously overrated.

 

[kazzooka]

You are forgetting that by having multiple picks you increase your chances of one of them being good players.

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[m0zza]

Hey!
Don't knock 2003 Pick 10
That brought Trent Croad back from Freo

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

You are forgetting that by having multiple picks you increase your chances of one of them being good players.

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Well sure, if you throw enough darts at the board you'll get a couple of bullseyes eventually, but you'll also miss a few times too.

That's why people squealing that we've "traded away our future" becuase we only start our draft with pick 88 are quite dim.

We have plenty of youth on the list wanting games.

 

[Gralin]

More picks means nothing if you can't develop and retain the players you pick

 

[Ashman23]

I recall last year's draft and Glen Luff rated us as having the second best draft after Brisbane. Lovell was rated the best player at last year's championships and had he been a bit taller he would have been in discussions for going number one, Burton was a top 10 talent that fell to us due to injury, Hardwick was leading goalkicker in the TAC cup by at least 20 goals. It doesn't ensure that those three will play 250 games each but they came to us with good pedigree.

 

[HODGEYROAD]

I recall last year's draft and Glen Luff rated us as having the second best draft after Brisbane. Lovell was rated the best player at last year's championships and had he been a bit taller he would have been in discussions for going number one, Burton was a top 10 talent that fell to us due to injury, Hardwick was leading goalkicker in the TAC cup by at least 20 goals. It doesn't ensure that those three will play 250 games each but they came to us with good pedigree.

Burton looks like a thoroughbred, Lovell looks like he will be a decent AFL player & Hardwick I'm really not sure on.

 

[Billyc]

You are forgetting that by having multiple picks you increase your chances of one of them being good players.

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Of course but the names above speak for themselves. People in footy chronically overrate draft picks. Pick 10 is seen as currency to trade for genuinely elite players but only one genuinely elite player has ever been drafted at pick 10. Birchall has been a fine player for us but he is the best player drafted at 14 since 2000.

When you look at the names above it is very difficult to argue we haven't done very well trading out our picks for two proven young guns (this is seperate to the Mitchell, Lewis trades as a similar analysis will suggest we absolutely gave them away for free). The chances of us using all those picks and coming away with players the calibre of Mitchell and O Meara are very remote.

 

[Goldnbrown]

This years draft pick is 4 years from now's 22 year old trade target for destination clubs

 

[OzJohnnie]

This years draft pick is 4 years from now's 22 year old trade target for destination clubs

Ha!

 

[philohk]

Exactly. Seems like people forget how speculative the draft is. We've essentially come out of one and a bit drafts with two high-calibre players we should be able to build a midfield around. And at a time when a lot of our list is still in its prime - bringing kids in at this stage probably would've seen us slip down the ladder for long enough that those players would retire by the time this year's kids came good - if they came good.