The HOTHAM - Official Form Thread

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2nd_2_None

Debutant
Jun 15, 2010
126
114
AFL Club
West Coast
The HOTHAM

The race that stops a nation...to ask WHY? Read along as I sink my teeth into the festering stinkhole that is The HOTHAM. These maidens have a combined total of 399 losses and for 11 of them, their losing ways will continue long after this abysmal race is run. SO, lets dig in and find the winner of this all important race/shameless Sportsbet marketing campaign.



1. BELLWHIST - $7.5 - 6yo with one placing from 19 starts, AvgPM $692. His placing came four back at Echuca when he led them a merry dance at the 500, ala Might and Power in his heyday, unfortunately he was collared late @$150s. He'd shown zero before that run (*cough JUICED). If he can draw inside he may give them something to chase depending what illicit substance the stable decide to inject into his morning carrot.

2. BRICONI - $31 - 4yo (upside+?) with 4 placings from 27 starts. AvgPM $451. The stable seems to have confused this poor bastard with a greyhound. He should be nice and fresh coming into this after just the one trial and three runs in the last month. Will most likely get back and not run on, which is not an ideal scenario for a racehorse. He is a deadset dry tracker, all his placings have come on a Good track (17-0-1-3).

3. LECHTER - $9 - 6yo, with 7 placings from 26 starts. AvgPM $1078. One of the form horses of the race, placing in two of his last five runs. The only small issue is that he can't get 1200, in fact, he falls into a cavernous hole at the 100m whenever he gets out to this trip. He's been beaten a combined 29L the last four times this trip. So, cleverly, they haven't pursued that distance range in his seven runs since Feb, until a $50k purse was offered. We can be pretty sure he won't be punching at the
business end, I assume there will be a business end in this race?

4. POSITIVE - $17 - 8yo, with 3 placings from 24 starts. AvgPM $623. Utterly talentless camel that's second up here after a brief 73 week break. His lack of racing won't be the telling factor, well it will, along with a distinct lack of talent. Last placed in March 2016. Upside is that he flies this trip (7-0-1-1). Poison odds.

5. SATHERN - $34 - 6yo, with 9 placings from 37 starts. AvgPM $620. Had a stable change at the beginning of this prep. He was then beaten a combined 28.5L in two runs back, he then found a couple of weaker races at Jerilderie and Pooncarie, I don't know where the **** that is either. And he was beaten a combined 14.8L in those two runs. Passing.

6. SERGEANT SAM - $6 - 5yo, with 2 placings from 20 starts. AvgPM $864. I think we can be a bit more positive here, even with the awful overall record. Three back he was only beaten 3.8L by Superhard, who then next start went on to win a BM70 at Sandown and onto only finish 3.5L behind Bandipur at Caulfield. You could argue Superhard has progressed a lot since that Maiden win but it does look good for a race of this nature. Anhooo, our friend Sam was then beaten 3.6L at Sale by Joan Constance, who has
since won again (BM58 Moe) no threat but an OK run there. Before being slayed by the highly talented Seven Year Reward. On face value he seems to have found the right race... a race devoid of any talent or ambition.

7. THE BLACK ISLE - $4.8 - 5yo, 3 placings from 25 starts. AvgPM $1031. He's been going pretty well, beaten around 4L in three runs in decent MDN races before a blowout last time on the Heavy. Forgiving that one as he was up to 1400 off a freshen. Better suited here. If he runs up to three back when only 3L from The Bont, he will go awfully close.

8. BASHIRAH - $12 - 5yo, 4 placings from 25 starts. AvgPM $593. NSW invader that was only 2L off the winner last time, albeit at Mudgee in a weak race. The Sydney form is stronger at this time of year though AMIRITE? Not suited @1200, best form (lel) is over further.

9. BEAU DAZZLE - $34 - 7yo, 9 placings from 58 starts. AvgPM $711. If you were looking for positives I guess I could point out that this girl has the highest prizemoney earnings in the race, sooo I guess she's got that going for her. Other than that I'm battling to find anything. Beaten over 9L in her last couple and went around at $150+ each time probably tells you where shes at. Her last placing came in April 2016 at Wodonga. If you take the $34 you should probably think about using the 'take a break'
function at your favourite corporate.

10. COSTANO MILLE - $19 - 6yo, 3 placings from 27 starts. AvgPM $604. Been really mixing her form this prep between 'truly awful' and 'why hasn't it been given a bullet.' I tried to add up the lengths of defeat over her last five but my solar calculator ran out of power halfway through. I do believe its somewhere in the 70L region. Shes also been racing 1200>2000>1400 this prep, so they clearly have no idea what her best range is. With reasonable data to back it up, its safe to say that she doesn't have a
best range. Unless you literally put her on a range and hire her out for Children's parties.

11. POINTER SISTER - $41 - 6yo, 3 placings from 20 starts. AvgPM $232. Oh GOD, where to start? First up for 41 weeks. She would be better suited at the picnics. By picnics, I mean you would take your Mrs for a nice cut lunch on a rug, as you feed your dog the remains of this animal.

12. WOOHOO - $3.2 - 5yo, 5 placings from 19 starts. AvgPM $929. Tassie SPEED MACHINE. Beaten under 2L in previous 4 runs up until last start failure when beaten 5L on Heavy, but doesn't seem to appreciate those conditions so forgiving that one. Clearly got the best form in the race but there's every chance he just doesn't like going past horses. In 19 runs, hes been first or second at the 400m eleven times! That doesn't scream 'back me at $3'. If he does win he probably falls in trying to throw it away.

13. BROTHER ADAM (EM1) - $13 - 6yo, 0 placings from 18 starts. AvgPM $669. The only runner in the race yet to run a place. Been in some weak MDN's and blah blah blah unplaced from 18, that's all you need to know.

14. WOODBINE MISS (EM2) - $9 - 6yo, 5 placings from 18 starts. AvgPM $1053. First up for 15 weeks. Placed 1/6 first up. Not really suited first up over this trip but has been fairly consistent and far from hopeless if she gets a run. Concern is that shes been in the paddock and they've just thrown her in here to see what happens, she might be way underdone and she usually needs one to get into a prep. Not sure! Keep safe?

15. MY GIDDY AUNT (EM3) - $5.5 - 5yo, 10 placings from 18 starts. AvgPM $838. The Black Caviar of this field with a 50%+SR. Will be fitter for first up effort when caved horribly late. May have even been an issue to lose that much ground so quickly. Assume she is back well here. Super consistent in prev preps but like the fav here, shes had more than her fair share of chances to get the job done. But unlike the fav she does get back and run on, so the theory would be her momentum may carry her past
these horses that are desperately trying to pull up late. Well Wattsy, if that's the case why hasn't that happened before? I'm glad you asked, jerk. Shes been in ok Maiden grade and rather than not wanting to win, she might just not have been good enough. Doubt talent will be an issue here somehow...

16. ITS GOT LIP (EM4) - $26 - 5yo, 5 placings from 18 starts. AvgPM $962. Avg PM is right up there for this race, been a bit down of late but earlier in career would be right in a race like this. If you can get near that price after scratchings it wouldn't be the worst EW bet but very unlikely to run.

W4D Hotham Market
The Black Isle 4.4
Sergeant Sam 7.8
Lechter 8
Woohoo 8
Bellwhist 9.4
Brother Adam 9.4
Positive 13.6
Briconi 28.6
Bashirah 35.5
Costano Mille 50.2
Beau Dazzle 63.8
Sathern 126.5

GETON! The Black Isle $5.5
Bump - its on again this Friday, the race that stops the nation!!!

*Eagerly awaiting your analysis in the hope of nailing the winner again this year*
 

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