The House Price Thread

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Get the impression with confidence back in the market, prices in Melb will surge next year

So will debt levels...amazing, people think they’re well off because they have a house in their name, yet they still owe the bank copious amounts of dollars.

* me.
 
So will debt levels...amazing, people think they’re well off because they have a house in their name, yet they still owe the bank copious amounts of dollars.

fu** me.

Best of all is the trump/Brexit triggerers who post from Werribee or hoppers. Meanwhile old boomers like me are spouting lefty crap from canterbury
 

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There’s two issues, and they’re stupidly obvious. Everybody already knows them.

- sale of residential property to foreign buyers

- the widespread use of residential property as investment, which is not only condoned but actually encouraged by our governments.

It’s been happening for 20 - 30 years and neither side of politics has done anything to stop it.

That’s it. Everything else is just fiddling at the edges. Until something is done about those factors then nothing changes.

And you’ll need a decent majority of people to not be homeowners before it’s politically attractive to actually do something. So nothing is changing any time soon.
I actually see those two as tinkering around the edges rather than the big issue.

The big issue is the availability of easy and cheap credit. It's pretty simple. People can only buy a house based on how much the bank can lend them.

I'm aware that what the banks lend is dependant on what the person earns, but how tight or relaxed that criteria is influences the prices and the affordability for the populous in general.
 
I actually see those two as tinkering around the edges rather than the big issue.

The big issue is the availability of easy and cheap credit. It's pretty simple. People can only buy a house based on how much the bank can lend them.

I'm aware that what the banks lend is dependant on what the person earns, but how tight or relaxed that criteria is influences the prices and the affordability for the populous in general.

Disagree. You let banks lend more, prices simply go up. You stop them lending, prices might steady or fall, but that’s only because nobody can’t afford to buy anyway. So it doesn’t change the affordability equation.

Nothing will change until residential property ceases to become investment fodder.
 
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There’s two issues, and they’re stupidly obvious. Everybody already knows them.

- sale of residential property to foreign buyers

- the widespread use of residential property as investment, which is not only condoned but actually encouraged by our governments.

It’s been happening for 20 - 30 years and neither side of politics has done anything to stop it.

That’s it. Everything else is just fiddling at the edges. Until something is done about those factors then nothing changes.

And you’ll need a decent majority of people to not be homeowners before it’s politically attractive to actually do something. So nothing is changing any time soon.
Banning non permanent citizens from owning a residential property and requiring permanent citizens to sell within six months of moving out will help a lot.

Another thing that would be to tweak negative gearing to get rid of the depreciation deduction.

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The housing market is just a bit pyramid scheme really. There's a relatively limited supply and demand propped up by tens if not hundreds of millions of willing and able foreign buyers.

Our tax system (income, capital gains, stamp duty etc.) disincentivises buying and selling in favour of buying and holding.


According to the 2017-18 stats, one in five Australian households – that’s 1.86 million – own property besides the one they’re residing in.

This includes those that own investment properties and/or holiday homes.

Of those:
  • 71% (1.3 million) owned one property (besides their current place of residence)
  • 18% (343,100) owned two properties
  • 5.8% (108,000) owned three properties
  • 4.6% (86,000) owned four or more properties

Even with historically low interest rates, the Sydney median house price of $1m+ is beyond the means of most people. And that's our biggest population centre. Melbourne isn't far behind at $800k+.

If property did actually keep doubling every 7-10 years as the spruikers used to claim it would forever, then we wouldn't be far off $1m+ median prices throughout the country. It's a ridiculous system where over time more and more people live in houses they couldn't actually afford to buy simply due to asset inflation happening underneath their feet. Meaning the only people that can afford to get up the ladder are those that own property already.
 
some areas have had huge losses based on mining and tourist booms ending. many get burned badly in the investment market. I 'thought about it' for many years but never did. too many balls need to stay in the air.

but your blue chip suburbs of Sydney and Melbourne have increased that much over that time. Our house. purchased 25 yr ago, now worth 8 times as much conservatively, although probably spent the almost same as the purchase price again improving and maintaining it
 
some areas have had huge losses based on mining and tourist booms ending. many get burned badly in the investment market. I 'thought about it' for many years but never did. too many balls need to stay in the air.

but your blue chip suburbs of Sydney and Melbourne have increased that much over that time. Our house. purchased 25 yr ago, now worth 8 times as much conservatively, although probably spent the almost same as the purchase price again improving and maintaining it
In a large number of cases Melb/Syd the actual value of the house is neither here nor there, it's the land thats everything
 
Get the impression with confidence back in the market, prices in Melb will surge next year

People are leaving Melbourne, the rest of the state is surging. People we can now work from home.

As I just posted in the other thread, my recollection for the introduction / justification for negative gearing was for the private sector to carry some of the weight in providing rental stock for the market.

imo, any short term rentals such as Airbnb properties should be excluded from negative gearing. It goes against the spirit of what it is for
 
People are leaving Melbourne, the rest of the state is surging. People we can now work from home.

As I just posted in the other thread, my recollection for the introduction / justification for negative gearing was for the private sector to carry some of the weight in providing rental stock for the market.

imo, any short term rentals such as Airbnb properties should be excluded from negative gearing. It goes against the spirit of what it is for

There will be a CBD correction too. cbd catering businesses, commercial rents. maybe a lot of offices become apartments (hopefully not 1 bed dog boxes which are not good for WFH)

Eventually the CBD will stabilise, but the growth path it was on was unsustainable anyway
 
Speaking to a mate about this earlier.

Imagine how well our economy could go if housing wasn't seen as an investment, and wages were relative. Instead of a house costing 800k, costs 5-600k, leaving 200k (+holding/ mortgage costs) to be saved, or better spent in the economy over the 25-30 year period.
 

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