The Lesser Key of Hinkley (aka the 2018 Statistical Data Thread)

[OneGreatClub]

From Champion Data.

We absolutely have to barrack the Crows on this week. And if we lose to the Saints I’ll be spewin.

 

[OneGreatClub]

Sydney in Sydney. glory be. Could we pull off three in a row against them/3 in a row at SCG. Would be a monumental win if it happens.

Still Richmond at the G, Sydney in Syd, Port at AO, possibility of Geelong at Simmonds and WCE at Optus. Finishing top 2 will be huge this year.

Simonds stadium to be made even narrower. I’m guessing that will help Geelong even more.

 

[Forzaport]

I'd much prefer finishing 2nd than 3rd. We can do this.

 

[PepeSilvia]

From Champion Data.

That's the post-Round 14 chart, still waiting for this week's.

 

[OneGreatClub]

That's the post-Round 14 chart, still waiting for this week's.

https://thearcfooty.com/2018-afl-projections/

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Would our spiraling down and Hawthorn's ascension be connected? First time that I notice there could be a connection...

I missed this when you asked the question. They aren't directly connected, but we lost a lot of good people to Hawthorn, 3 or 4 within a few months of Clarkson leaving Port for Hawthorn and another 2 or over the next few seasons, which made us weaker but helped them. So the connection is there but its minor.

Our main reason or spiraling down the ladder were 1) not addressing our 2007 grand final thrashing, and the fallout that caused with players, staff, fans and more importantly corporates and trying to find sponsors, and 2) as I have written in an answer to you previously, when GFC hit in 2008, we had nothing much left in the bank from our boom years of 2001-2007 as we had a poor stadium deal, whereas Brisbane who was our major competitor onfield, with equal dominate success in the home and away part of the season in 2001-04 years, had a great stadium deal, got similar crowds to us, and between 2001-06 years was able to bank $10 million and were able to delay their inevitable slide down the ladder.

 

[Janus]

Don't sully this thread with ARC garbage please.

 

[*PAF]

...

My only concern is that it's a bit Ross Lyon where you always let your opponent stay in touch, but I'm fairly happy with our mentality and execution in close games this year.

100% agree, plus the reliance on a coupke of key players.
Pittard got injured - we lost drive from defence.
Ryder got injured - we lost structure and all sorts of other things.

Could easily name another couple of players that we cannot afford to lose based on our preferred gameplan.

 

[noffle]

Don't sully this thread with ARC garbage please.

Any reason why you're anti-ARC? The CD predictions say that the betting markets are out of whack for Port Top-4 and Port minor premier, but the ARC predictions are bang-on.

 

[Janus]

Any reason why you're anti-ARC? The CD predictions say that the betting markets are out of whack for Port Top-4 and Port minor premier, but the ARC predictions are bang-on.

They use ELO rankings, which I don’t believe are applicable to a sport like Australian Rules football. It works for games that have limited variables like chess, baseball etc.

Besides, according to Sportsbet, Port Adelaide have the second lowest odds at 1.42 behind Richmond at 1.03 to make top 4. Bet365 has Port equal with Sydney for second at 1.50. So I’m not sure how they are bang-on.

 

[noffle]

They use ELO rankings, which I don’t believe are applicable to a sport like Australian Rules football. It works for games that have limited variables like chess, baseball etc.

Besides, according to Sportsbet, Port Adelaide have the second lowest odds at 1.42 behind Richmond at 1.03 to make top 4. Bet365 has Port equal with Sydney for second at 1.50. So I’m not sure how they are bang-on.

The only assumption with the ELO ranking system is

if team A beats team B,
and team C beats team A,
then team C is more likely to beat team B.

I can see how you could argue that this isn't true in AFL because different teams match-up differently with each-other, but you could say the same about chess players e.g. Nakamura & Carlsen. I think it's not bad as a first pass, given you have relatively few data points (games played) in a season.

When I last checked the odds on Betfair were $1.70 for Port to make the Top 4, which is much more generous than the Champion Data probabilities would suggest. Sportsbet etc. of course have the benefit of an over-round.

 

[Janus]

The only assumption with the ELO ranking system is

if team A beats team B,
and team C beats team A,
then team C is more likely to beat team B.

I can see how you could argue that this isn't true in AFL because different teams match-up differently with each-other, but you could say the same about chess players e.g. Nakamura & Carlsen. I think it's not bad as a first pass, given you have relatively few data points (games played) in a season.

When I last checked the odds on Betfair were $1.70 for Port to make the Top 4, which is much more generous than the Champion Data probabilities would suggest. Sportsbet etc. of course have the benefit of an over-round.

The difference is that it’s easier for a chess player to adjust their style or play a different gambit. ELO is a mathematical formula based on zero-sum games. It also doesn’t take into consideration fixture strength - Richmond’s win against Sydney would have been higher rated than Port Adelaide’s purely because of when the two sides played each other (before Sydney beat West Coast vs after).

It just doesn’t work.

 

[raman]

I won’t stand for this ELO-bashing, Livin’ Thing is a pretty good song.

 

[malcheski]

I won’t stand for this ELO-bashing, Livin’ Thing is a pretty good song.

I agree, Don’t Bring Me Down Janus


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Tibbs]

I won’t stand for this ELO-bashing, Livin’ Thing is a pretty good song.

Hell .. you are showing your vintage now! You're such an Evil Woman! Or maybe just a Sweet Talking Woman!

 

[raman]

Hell .. you are showing your vintage now!

More my parents' vintage.

I have a sentimental attachment to Livin' Thing since it plays over the closing titles of Boogie Nights which is pretty much my favourite movie.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Before last nights game. From this guy

https://twitter.com/GRAFTRatings We find out how good colingwood is in the next few weeks

 

[OneGreatClub]

Ken will be happy we are the Pressure Kings (no wonder he loves Neade..just a shame he can’t kick a few goals too)

Before last nights game. From this guy

https://twitter.com/GRAFTRatings We find out how good colingwood isin the next few weeks

sorry..what do the colours represent?

 

[raman]

sorry..what do the colours represent?

Red, loss. Green, win. The halved squares are the double-up games.

 

[OneGreatClub]

Red, loss. Green, win. The halved squares are the double-up games.

Ah thanks

 

[jakey]

More my parents' vintage.

I have a sentimental attachment to Livin' Thing since it plays over the closing titles of Boogie Nights which is pretty much my favourite movie.

Great soundtrack. Feel my heat a highlight.

 

[Chrizzt]

Before last nights game. From this guy

https://twitter.com/GRAFTRatings We find out how good colingwood isin the next few weeks

Still pissed off about the Essendon game. Obvs the Hawks game was extremely winnable, but that Essendon game was a complete wreck for us.

 

[Forzaport]

Before last nights game. From this guy

https://twitter.com/GRAFTRatings We find out how good colingwood is in the next few weeks

Looking at this, we should expect a 16-6 season at minimum. That should net us a top 2 finish.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Just editing that graph, there is still a lot to do, with a lot of the current top 8 sides to play each other before seasons end. 15 games between current top 8 sides when this was drawn up, well 14 after last nights Sydney v Geelong game.

 

[OneGreatClub]