The Lesser Key of Hinkley (aka the 2018 Statistical Data Thread)

[RussellEbertHandball]

Main reason I buy the AFL Record is for the stats pages and so i can keep score. Find myself more likely to read the stories and rest of it several weeks or months after the game I have bought it for. Helps kill a bit of time in the off season.

We won contested possessions 156 v 139 so marginal improvement and we are now about 0.2. Charlie had 10 contested possessions, I would say at least 8 were forward of centre and took 2 contested marks both in the forward line.

We won uncontested possession 268 v 233 so once again a marginal improvement to about 30.8

I doubt we improved our kicking efficiency

Centre Clearances we won 13 v 8, better than normal and stoppage clearances we lost 19 v 22, about normal

Pressure Factor - no idea how Champion Data algorithm works this out





Dont know the stats from yesterday's game for the first 3 criteria

We had 22 tackles inside our forward 50 to the saints 7 in their forward 50

Our Shot at Goal accuracy was lower than season average. 28 shots from 67 inside 50's for 42%.

So was our Scores per Inside 50 as we had 26 scoring shots from 67 inside 50's for 38.8%




Not many of our players make the top 10 averages in the league for these 14 categories.

Jonas #1 for average marks per game, Robbie #10 for AFL Player rankings per game, Ryder 8th for average hit outs to advantage, Ollie 7th for stoppage clearances and for tackles SPP is 6th and Ebert 9th - Kenny would like that 2 are in the top 10.






Champion Data are a pack of arseholes. To protect their "proprietary data," for years, every week, they put deliberately false AFL averages for different positions for either kicking efficiency or disposal efficiency. Last year they had bullshit AFL averages for kicking efficiency. This year its for disposals. Its not hard to realise that handball has a higher efficiency than kicking, so the total disposal efficiency should be higher than kicking efficiency.

Plus the pricks at CD don't make kicking efficiency stats readily available for free to the public like all their other stats.

 

[GremioPower]

15 games in, I have some numbers:

Our average score is 86-73 (+13)
Our median score is 86-69 (+17)

Interesting enough, we are scoring 24 times in average (12.12), which would be good for 84 points.
Our opponents are averaging 19 score shots (10.9), for 69 points.
The median would be 25-20 (12.13:85 - 10.10:70).

Counting goals and behinds separatedly:
Average: 12.11:83 - 11.9:75
Median: 12.12:84 - 10.9:69

The range goes from 83 to 86 for us, against 69 to 75 for our opponents. Point differential goes from +8 to +17.

These ranges, being based on our averages and medians, would represent our OK level this season.

We have scored within range two times (1w, 1l); above it, 7 times (7w); and below it, six times (3w, 3l).

Opponents have scored within range 4 games (4w); below it, 6 times (5w, 1l); and above it, 5 times (2w, 3l).

So, our Offense was OK or better 9 times; and our Defense, 10 times; both were together in the same game 6 times; and neither, twice.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

James Coventry has been in Melbourne this week promoting his book Footballistics. He was on ABC News breakfast program today. I was hoping they had a bit more of the segment which i watched saw this morning on their twitter account.

He said goal kicking has plateaued since 2000. The game went 100% professional full time for the players in 2000. So they haven't been increasing their out put on goal kicking since going full time.



Here he talks to Gerard Healy on 3AW and talks about the revolution in analytics of the game around 2004 the year after Moneyball was released. He repeats what was in the Guardian article which I quoted back on page 12 of this thread that Choco, Phil Walsh and Clarkson were at the forefront of the change and that Moneyball helped change Champion Data from being purely data collectors to also being analysts. it confirms my long held belief that 2005 was the real stuff up year to win a 2nd flag, not 2002 or 2003. Its a good 7 minute interview.



And just like at the Adelaide book, launch, at the Melbourne launch Port's Robert Younger was there talking about the book, his contribution in chapter 2 and the changes in the volume of analytics helping to change the game.

 

[GremioPower]

James Coventry... repeats what was in the Guardian article which I quoted back on page 12 of this thread that Choco, Phil Walsh and Clarkson were at the forefront of the change and that Moneyball helped change Champion Data from being purely data collectors to also being analysts. it confirms my long held belief that 2005 was the real stuff up year to win a 2nd flag, not 2002 or 2003.

Instead, we finished 8th and got destroyed by West Lakes in the semis. What happened?

 

[TeeKray]

Instead, we finished 8th and got destroyed by West Lakes in the semis. What happened?

Was one of the most frustrating seasons in our AFL history.

Finally got the monkey off our back and won the 2004 flag. Immediately lost our vice captain Josh Carr to Freo. Lost another two premiership players (Hardwick to retirement, Schofield also to Freo).

Norm Smith medalist Byron Pickett was made a scapegoat in the pre season games by the AFL who were determined to stamp out head high contact on players with their head over the ball. Got something like a 6 week suspension which seemed over the top at the time and was proven so by subsequent decisions.

Had two key players coming back from ACLS - Primus and Francou. Both struggled to get back to anywhere near their best form but had season long gold passes regardless.

Mid season reports emerged of a player split over the decision to have Primus retain the captaincy despite the fact that Tredrea captained the team to a flag in his absence.

Season was basically a frustrating sequence of strong home wins followed by disappointing away losses. We drew to a s**t Carlton team at home which was probably the low light.

We were never in the 8 at the completion of any round until the final round.

Finished 8th and destroyed North in the first final. Maybe we've turned the corner. Season is open as anything with a very mediocre Sydney team eventually winning the flag.

We rock up to the semi against the Crows and are in the game up to our ears at half time, not much more than a goal or something down. End up losing by 80 something.

It was a s**t year.

 

[mynameissilver]

Also 2005 saw one of our most underrated and important players miss a lot of the season through a chronic knee which led to his premature retirement, in R. James. Losing him and Carr was something we just couldn't cover.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

For those visiting the newsagent this month you might want to flick thru Inside Sport and see some of our Performance Data Scientist's work get published.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Defence first is useless is you dont kick enough goals, especially to snuff teams out so they cant have late comebacks and win.

Since the bye - lose to
Hawks by 3 pts 61-64
Freo by 9 pts.... 50-59
Adel by 3 pts.... 93-96
WCE by 4 pts.... 58-62
Giants by 22pts 58-80
but were 9pts down at the start of the last quarter at 2m 57 seconds in after Dixon kicks a goal and then misses a tough on the run shot from the boundary 45m out, after dropping a straight forward mark about 15m closer to the middle of the ground. score was 59-66 with 18 minutes of game time left.

https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/spor...2/news-story/92e1df2e0294762578028ca7dfc119ec

SLUMPING Port Adelaide's scoring is at the lowest ebb in the Ken Hinkley era. In a damning statistic that has almost certainly cost the Power a coveted top four spot and has it fighting for its finals life against Collingwood at the MCG on Saturday, Port has become a defensive force but an offensive mess. Put bluntly, its lack of scoring is killing it. The Power’s average score of 81.4 points is the worst since Hinkley took over as coach from axed Matthew Primus at the end of 2012 — by some margin. Prior to this year, the worst a Hinkley team had averaged was 91 points in 2015. In Primus’s last year in 2012, Port averaged just 76.9 points.

Last season it posted the second-best scoring record in the league (97.6 points) — nearly three goals more than in a year it brought in offensive weapons Jack Watts and Steven Motlop from rival clubs, along with attacking midfield ball magnet Tom Rockliff. Overall, Port ranks 13th in scoring but in the past five weeks it is the third-worst scoring team, averaging a paltry 67.4 points. Its inability to hit the scoreboard has seen it lose four of its past five games to slump from a position where it was eyeing a home qualifying final to eighth. The Power’s last five scores have been 7.8 against Fremantle, 8.10 (GWS), 11.12 (Western Bulldogs), 14.9 (Adelaide) and 9.4 (West Coast). That’s a grand total of 49 goals at an average of 9.8. Port has failed to score a goal in seven quarters — the equal-fourth most in the competition — including the match-defining last term against West Coast on Saturday when it lost after Jeremy McGovern's after-the-final-siren major.
......
Port has scored 100 or more points only three times — against Fremantle in round one (110), North Melbourne in round six (102) and the Western Bulldogs in round 13 (132) — and has been held to below 80 points on nine occasions. “It’s pretty frustrating, not putting on big scores, especially when we seem to be doing a lot of things right defensively,’’ Power key defender Dougal Howard said. “I guess for us it’s a matter of capitalising more going inside 50. Against West Coast we had plenty of possession (393 disposals to 365) and owned the ball at times but we just didn’t get that final mark leading up inside 50 to finish it off. “That’s been a big area (of concern) all year and if we are going to win the next two games and get into the finals we definitely have to fix up that execution going inside 50 to get shots on goal.’’

https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/spor...2/news-story/92e1df2e0294762578028ca7dfc119ec

No surprise where and why we rank defensively.

Defensively, Port is brilliant, ranking No. 2 for scores conceded.It is coughing up just 71.4 points a game — ranked second behind reigning premier and white-hot flag favourite Richmond (70.3). In the five-week period where its premiership hopes have deteriorated, the Power is averaging only 66.2 points against. But, as Hinkley notes, “you can’t win games of football when you don’t hit the scoreboard a bit heavier than we have been’’. Hinkley last month made the telling admission that Port might “have gone a little bit too far with our defence’’ at the expense of scoring. “We have been able to defend really well but our problem has been that we haven’t been able to hit the scoreboard as well as we would have liked,’’ he said. Port, whose leading goalkicker is forward/midfielder Robbie Gray (34), has paid a price for being inefficient with the ball while it has become a high stoppage team that moves the ball slowly.

And there is no shock horror when were our kicking abilities rank.

The Power ranks 17th in kicking efficiency (62 per cent) and first in stoppages (73.2 a game) while no side has played on less in the past five weeks. Its slow play helps protect the defence but makes it tough to score. And now the Power must find a way to goal without its No. 1 target man Charlie Dixon, who is out for the season with a broken leg. “We don't shy away from that,’’ assistant coach Michael Voss said of Port’s scoring woes. “It’s about completing our plays and finishing. We feel that we are getting some really good build-up through the middle of the ground but we’re not finishing it off — whether it's the final kick inside 50 or just in front of goal.“That’s something that hasn't been consistent enough for us this year.’’

ozph1870 has been warning us about the Bassett defence first low score impact for 2 seasons now. He was on the money very early on even when we were belting the cellar dwellers but putting up this sort of crap against the top 12 sides last year.

 

[GremioPower]

Defence first is useless is you dont kick enough goals, especially to snuff teams out so they cant have late comebacks and win.

Since the bye - lose to
Hawks by 3 pts 61-64
Freo by 9 pts.... 50-59
Adel by 3 pts.... 93-96
WCE by 4 pts.... 58-62
Giants by 22pts 58-80
but were 9pts down at the start of the last quarter at 2m 57 seconds in after Dixon kicks a goal and then misses a tough on the run shot from the boundary 45m out, after dropping a straight forward mark about 15m closer to the middle of the ground. score was 59-66 with 18 minutes of game time left.

https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/spor...2/news-story/92e1df2e0294762578028ca7dfc119ec

https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/spor...2/news-story/92e1df2e0294762578028ca7dfc119ec

No surprise where and why we rank defensively.


And there is no shock horror when were our kicking abilities rank.


ozph1870 has been warning us about the Bassett defence first low score impact for 2 seasons now. He was on the money very early on even when we were belting the cellar dwellers but putting up this sort of crap against the top 12 sides last year.

OUR PROBLEM IS THE BALL! We have no clue what do with it...

Last year, we would kick into F50 and hope for the best. This year, we tried to move the ball better, but our execution never got to the level we all expected it could be.

Moreover, correct me if i am wrong, but our mids weren't as good as we thought they should be in winning the ball out of stoppages and contests.

We weren't able to see, but glimpses of our gameplan. Frustrating...

 

[elee]

>>The Power ranks 17th in kicking efficiency (62 per cent) and first in stoppages (73.2 a game)

wow.... is the guy running the numbers aware of that?

 

[Killer Power]

Defence first is useless is you dont kick enough goals, especially to snuff teams out so they cant have late comebacks and win.

Since the bye - lose to
Hawks by 3 pts 61-64
Freo by 9 pts.... 50-59
Adel by 3 pts.... 93-96
WCE by 4 pts.... 58-62
Giants by 22pts 58-80
but were 9pts down at the start of the last quarter at 2m 57 seconds in after Dixon kicks a goal and then misses a tough on the run shot from the boundary 45m out, after dropping a straight forward mark about 15m closer to the middle of the ground. score was 59-66 with 18 minutes of game time left.

https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/spor...2/news-story/92e1df2e0294762578028ca7dfc119ec

https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/spor...2/news-story/92e1df2e0294762578028ca7dfc119ec

No surprise where and why we rank defensively.


And there is no shock horror when were our kicking abilities rank.


ozph1870 has been warning us about the Bassett defence first low score impact for 2 seasons now. He was on the money very early on even when we were belting the cellar dwellers but putting up this sort of crap against the top 12 sides last year.

That’s a very damning collection of stats. Wonder where we rank for number of i50’s also. Might track that down.

 

[GremioPower]

One thing that I've noticed from our 2018 results is that scoring efficiency could be overrated. It is a small sample size, but efficiency has mattered in only one of our 22 games: against Melbourne.

In all other games, the team who has simply scored the most won.

We were more efficient than our opponents in half of our games, for a 5-6 record. On the other hand, when we were less efficient, our record was 7-4.

Close Games (considering Total Points Scored)
These were our 7 close games (point distribution between both teams ranging from 55% to 45%):

R3, 97-92 Brisbane
R8, 95-90 W. Lakes
R11, 61-64 Hawthorn
R14, 75-65 Melbourne
R17, 50-59 Fremantle
R20, 93-96 W. Lakes
R21, 58-62 W. Coast​

We had a better scoring efficiency in 5 of those games, for a record of 1-4. We won both games in which we weren't the most efficient team.

In the Showdown XLV our opponents had the least efficient game of all our opponents in 2018 (42%), while we had our fourth more efficient game of the season (61%). Still, we have lost it.

Our highest efficiency in close games was against West Coast in R21 (69%). Still, they only needed a 53% efficiency to defeat us.

Our lowest efficency in close games was against Freo (47%), but theirs was even worse (42%). Still, they won.

In the Showdown XLIV, our opponents had the most efficient game in close matches this season (70%). Still, we have beat them with 56% efficiency.

Close Games (considering Scoring Shot Differential)
These were our 11 games in which a team had 6 or fewer scoring shots than the opponent:

R2, 24-21 Sydney
R3, 27-22 Brisbane
R4, 24-26 Essendon
R8, 25-20 W. Lakes
R9, 24-26 Essendon
R11, 16-19 Hawthorn
R12, 22-18 Richmond
R14, 20-20 Melbourne
R15, 25-19 Carlton
R17, 15-19 Freo
R21, 13-17 W. Coast ​

Our record in those games was 6-5. The same logic, or lack thereof, seems to apply. We were 3-3, when more efficient; and 3-2, when less efficient than the opposition.

The differences between both lists of games seem to show that both our games against Essendon were closer than the actual scores imply. The same can be said about our win over Sydney. On the other hand, Showdown XLV shouldn't have been as close as it was. The efficiency in the games against Carlton and Richmond were similar between the teams involved (difference around 1%).

Still, in all of those games (R20 bing the sole exception), the team who simply scored more won.

It seems that scoring efficiency would affect a team's final % more than its W-L record.

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Next Step
Increasing my sample size! Let's see what happens when adding more data.

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What Would "Efficency" Be
I am considering "efficiency" to be the percentage of goals related to all scores

[eff.=(goals*100)/(goals+behind)]

our efficiency has fluctuated from 71.43% (R22) to 40.74% (R9). The average was 53.84%.

Our opponents' efficiency went from 72.73% (R7) to 42.11% (R17). The average was 53.54%.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Squiggle has a couple of new toys. Don't know if he has developed them himself.







But for some reason he has some doubts about the new kick in ruke where the player on the mark is 10m and not 5m from the edge of the goal square.

 

[Pappagallo]

But for some reason he has some doubts about the new kick in ruke where the player on the mark is 10m and not 5m from the edge of the goal square.

No I think he’s just bothered by the graphic because the 10m measure and the 50m arc aren’t in proportion with one another.