The Liberal Party - How long?

[SBD Gonzalez]

I don't hold that against them, much as I detest what they've become.

If you look deep enough any modern organisation that existed or originated in the 1930s had fascist connections. There is a reason why Spain, Italy, Germany etc were seduced by fascism. Do you drive a Ford? Wear Hugo Boss suits? Have penicillin from Bayer?

Like I said on this thread a few weeks back. A lot of people in the 1930s thought fascism was the way to go.

But anyone since 1945 who still holds that view could only be a complete deadshit.

 

[GreyCrow]

This grandstanding Idiot
View attachment 606455

Interesting that Johnnies dad was aligned with this mob

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

Interesting that Johnnies dad was aligned with this mob

Yes, explains a lot.

 

[AM]

 

[medusala]

Sure. No doubt they have some considered opinions. But in my experience, economists know quite a lot about economics, which is just as much what we're talking here.

https://www.zerohedge.com/article/j...rsion-and-why-economist-predictions-are-fools

However, attempting to invest on the back of economic forecasts is an exercise in extreme folly, even in normal times. Economists are probably the one group who make astrologers look like professionals when it comes to telling the future. Even a cursory glance at Exhibit 4 reveals that economists are simply useless when it comes to forecasting. They have missed every recession in the last four decades! And it isn’t just growth that economists can’t forecast: it’s also inflation, bond yields, and pretty much everything else.

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

https://www.zerohedge.com/article/j...rsion-and-why-economist-predictions-are-fools

However, attempting to invest on the back of economic forecasts is an exercise in extreme folly, even in normal times. Economists are probably the one group who make astrologers look like professionals when it comes to telling the future. Even a cursory glance at Exhibit 4 reveals that economists are simply useless when it comes to forecasting. They have missed every recession in the last four decades! And it isn’t just growth that economists can’t forecast: it’s also inflation, bond yields, and pretty much everything else.

I'm not sure I made any claim about economists' ability to predict the future, so I don't really see the relevance of this. From memory this discussion evolved out of me saying that economists had analysed the data to hand on the carbon scheme and concluded it was working as intended.

Any reasonable person (you are a reasonable person? Always good to check) would probably conclude that if it was working as intended, it would probably continue working as intended, but that's a far cry from making claims about being able to predict the future.

 

[medusala]

I'm not sure I made any claim about economists' ability to predict the future, so I don't really see the relevance of this. From memory this discussion evolved out of me saying that economists had analysed the data to hand on the carbon scheme and concluded it was working as intended.

Who are these credible economists? The carbon system put in place by Swan relied on future forecasts of the carbon price (which were hopeless wrong).

I didnt work as intended due to ridiculous assumptions be Swan.

https://www.news.com.au/national/br...t/news-story/40386aa4c4bd25f22334c4f2da050058

Treasury is forecasting a carbon price of $29 a tonne in 2015 when a local emissions trading scheme is linked to the European ETS.

This week the EU price dived to less than $4 a tonne but Mr Swan insists it can bounce back and he defended Treasury forecasts.

The big difference between the Australian forecast and the latest European carbon price could cost the federal budget up to $7 billion, some experts predict.

 

[Pessimistic]

https://www.zerohedge.com/article/j...rsion-and-why-economist-predictions-are-fools

However, attempting to invest on the back of economic forecasts is an exercise in extreme folly, even in normal times. Economists are probably the one group who make astrologers look like professionals when it comes to telling the future. Even a cursory glance at Exhibit 4 reveals that economists are simply useless when it comes to forecasting. They have missed every recession in the last four decades! And it isn’t just growth that economists can’t forecast: it’s also inflation, bond yields, and pretty much everything else.

They should be looking at demographics more

E.g. the Costello mini baby boom is about to enter year 10. There’ll be maybe 15% more university applicants and eventually job seekers.

So if you got the baby bonus parents, karma is about to strike

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

Who are these credible economists? The carbon system put in place by Swan relied on future forecasts of the carbon price (which were hopeless wrong).

I didnt work as intended due to ridiculous assumptions be Swan.

https://www.news.com.au/national/br...t/news-story/40386aa4c4bd25f22334c4f2da050058

Treasury is forecasting a carbon price of $29 a tonne in 2015 when a local emissions trading scheme is linked to the European ETS.

This week the EU price dived to less than $4 a tonne but Mr Swan insists it can bounce back and he defended Treasury forecasts.

The big difference between the Australian forecast and the latest European carbon price could cost the federal budget up to $7 billion, some experts predict.

Yeah I haven't the time today to do a search, but there was a host of articles after the abolition of the carbon scheme (ie when there were good data to go on) saying how it had actually been doing its job exactly as intended.

Probably more credible than something in Ltd News when Abbott was in opposition and throwing everything he could at his only chance at the keys to The Lodge.

 

[Power Raid]

I'm not sure I made any claim about economists' ability to predict the future, so I don't really see the relevance of this. From memory this discussion evolved out of me saying that economists had analysed the data to hand on the carbon scheme and concluded it was working as intended.

Any reasonable person (you are a reasonable person? Always good to check) would probably conclude that if it was working as intended, it would probably continue working as intended, but that's a far cry from making claims about being able to predict the future.

and again, look at germany which is way more advanced in terms of time and $s than Australia. Yet in 2035 after 45 years and billions wasted they will be nowhere near brazil, france, new zealand, norway, sweden etc etc

Given that's the case do we accept a pathway down a failed model or choose on solution that works? That's why it isn't an economic debate but rather an engineering debate.

 

[Pessimistic]

The Libs may recover from this, god knows there's been several predictions of the ALP's demise but they now look stronger than ever.

But with all the retirements, switching to independents etc. its got quite a few parallells with the end of the Democrats here

 

[medusala]

and again, look at germany which is way more advanced in terms of time and $s than Australia. Yet in 2035 after 45 years and billions wasted they will be nowhere near brazil, france, new zealand, norway, sweden etc etc

It must be because of their carbon tax.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapie...es-in-reducing-carbon-emissions/#43f67f123535

Yes, The U.S. Leads All Countries In Reducing Carbon Emissions

 

[medusala]

The Libs may recover from this, god knows there's been several predictions of the ALP's demise but they now look stronger than ever.

The shadow cabinet is rather (very) talentless though (compare them to the days of Bob and Paul and its cringeworthy). Look what happened to the Libs, they just assumed that because Gillard was so utterly useless they would go ok.

Surprised Andrew Leigh still isnt in cabinet, thought he was meant to be quite good?

 

[Maggie5]

The shadow cabinet is rather (very) talentless though (compare them to the days of Bob and Paul and its cringeworthy). Look what happened to the Libs, they just assumed that because Gillard was so utterly useless they would go ok.

Surprised Andrew Leigh still isnt in cabinet, thought he was meant to be quite good?

Leigh not aligned which doesn't help him. Shadow Assistant Treasurer only at the moment purely on merit which is a change.

 

[medusala]

Leigh not aligned which doesn't help him. Shadow Assistant Treasurer only at the moment purely on merit which is a change.

Cheers, didnt know that. He seems a cut above plenty of mps on both sides

 

[Baltimore Jack]

 

[Power Raid]

It must be because of their carbon tax.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapie...es-in-reducing-carbon-emissions/#43f67f123535

Yes, The U.S. Leads All Countries In Reducing Carbon Emissions

The article had the secret lie to renewables that is so conveniently overlooked by greenies....................gas.

Replacing coal with gas does reduce CO2 but that's about 50% at best. The real solution to CO2 is hydro followed by nuclear. No other technology comes close.

Greenies applaud Germany's failed model and at best they will emit 10 times more than France. But somehow 10 times worse is a great outcome given they started 15 times worse.

Suddenly one realises greenies don't care about CO2 or the environment. It's just a deceiptful political movement with religious fanaticism.

 

[Benny78]

https://www.news.com.au/finance/eco...s/news-story/efc6ad82713f887ef23d2e1981f277ff

I hope I get something good

 

[Hawk Dork]

The article had the secret lie to renewables that is so conveniently overlooked by greenies....................gas.

Replacing coal with gas does reduce CO2 but that's about 50% at best. The real solution to CO2 is hydro followed by nuclear. No other technology comes close.

Greenies applaud Germany's failed model and at best they will emit 10 times more than France. But somehow 10 times worse is a great outcome given they started 15 times worse.

Suddenly one realises greenies don't care about CO2 or the environment. It's just a deceiptful political movement with religious fanaticism.

Gas as the short term solution, the transition fuel

Cheap gas is the key for the US and expensive Russian gas is the curse for Germany
and then theres our silly gas prices

 

[Power Raid]

Gas as the short term solution, the transition fuel

Cheap gas is the key for the US and expensive Russian gas is the curse for Germany
and then theres our silly gas prices

Or perhaps gas isn’t the interim solution.

Perhaps wind and solar are the convenient problem to ensure big fossil fuels can continue selling their products.

That is attested to by the fact big gas is renewables biggest supporter.

 

[Hawk Dork]

Or perhaps gas isn’t the interim solution.

Perhaps wind and solar are the convenient problem to ensure big fossil fuels can continue selling their products.

That is attested to by the fact big gas is renewables biggest supporter.

It should be the interim solution and the insurance policy , because of its ability to be switched on quick and provide a rapid boil.
Coal needs to idle 24/7

 

[Power Raid]

It should be the interim solution and the insurance policy , because of its ability to be switched on quick and provide a rapid boil.
Coal needs to idle 24/7

Gas probably doesn’t utilise boilers rather turbines.

No need for insurance if you just pick a generation model that is proven and has delivered the desired result for 40 plus years.

 

[Hawk Dork]

Gas probably doesn’t utilise boilers rather turbines.

No need for insurance if you just pick a generation model that is proven and has delivered the desired result for 40 plus years.

Nuclear will need very expensive insurance usually under written by governments.
I think the economics of renewables, constantly getting cheaper and rollout time and costs to build a reactor and waste management and peoples genuine fears and the political costs of those fears, will make it virtully impossible for nuclear in Australia.
While a few batteries and gas turbines can fill the gap real quick as the renewables and storage solutions keep getting rolled out

 

[Vader]

There are numerous problems with nuclear power in Australia

• NIMBYism - nobody wants a nuclear power station in their backyard.
• Lack of qualified nuclear engineers - This one is a feedback loop. No nuclear engineers -> no nuclear industry -> no nuclear engineers.
• Cost of construction
• Storage of nuclear waste - Australia still doesn't have a permanent nuclear storage facility. The waste from Lucas Heights is stored on-site,and they've been trying to get rid of it for decades. A nuclear power station will produce a lot more waste than the nuclear medicine facility at Lucas Heights.

Australia is relatively stable (geologically), so a repeat of Fukushima is highly unlikely. Nevertheless, NIMBYism is the biggest single impediment.

 

[Hawk Dork]

There are numerous problems with nuclear power in Australia

• NIMBYism - nobody wants a nuclear power station in their backyard.
• Lack of qualified nuclear engineers - This one is a feedback loop. No nuclear engineers -> no nuclear industry -> no nuclear engineers.
• Cost of construction
• Storage of nuclear waste - Australia still doesn't have a permanent nuclear storage facility. The waste from Lucas Heights is stored on-site,and they've been trying to get rid of it for decades. A nuclear power station will produce a lot more waste than the nuclear medicine facility at Lucas Heights.

Australia is relatively stable (geologically), so a repeat of Fukushima is highly unlikely. Nevertheless, NIMBYism is the biggest single impediment.

and cost of renewables is constantly comming down making them uneconomical long term investments as we see in the UK