Prediction The lid

catempire

Moderator
Mar 20, 2004
32,055
57,419
Melbourne
AFL Club
Geelong
Here’s an argument for the lid...

Of the 11 teams to be 8-1 or better in the past decade, only 4 have gone on to win the flag. A further two have made the grand final. So only just better than even chance of making the GF from here, based on history.

2018 – West Coast (8-1) – 1st

2016 – North Melbourne (9-0) – lost EF

2015 – Fremantle (9-0) – lost PF

2013 – Hawthorn (8-1) – 1st

2013 – Geelong (8-1) – lost PF

2012 – West Coast (8-1) – lost SF

2012 – Essendon (8-1) – DQ

2011 – Geelong (9-0) – 1st

2011 – Collingwood (8-1) – lost GF

2009 – St Kilda (9-0) – lost GF

2009 – Geelong (9-0) – 1st
 

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Mr Meow

Club Legend
Aug 7, 2016
1,877
3,289
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Here’s an argument for the lid...

Of the 11 teams to be 8-1 or better in the past decade, only 4 have gone on to win the flag. A further two have made the grand final. So only just better than even chance of making the GF from here, based on history.

2018 – West Coast (8-1) – 1st

2016 – North Melbourne (9-0) – lost EF

2015 – Fremantle (9-0) – lost PF

2013 – Hawthorn (8-1) – 1st

2013 – Geelong (8-1) – lost PF

2012 – West Coast (8-1) – lost SF

2012 – Essendon (8-1) – DQ

2011 – Geelong (9-0) – 1st

2011 – Collingwood (8-1) – lost GF

2009 – St Kilda (9-0) – lost GF

2009 – Geelong (9-0) – 1st
Yet before the season started, I thought the chances of making the GF were less than 10%. To be a better than even chance of making the big dance is scarily lid-freeing material.

Luckily my heavy scepticism based on the last few years (different team, different team...I know) is enough to have the lid super glued to pre-2007 levels. Happy to just enjoy the ride in the mean time though.
 

CatToTheFuture

All Australian
Aug 18, 2018
939
1,209
AFL Club
Geelong
Here’s an argument for the lid...

Of the 11 teams to be 8-1 or better in the past decade, only 4 have gone on to win the flag. A further two have made the grand final. So only just better than even chance of making the GF from here, based on history.

2018 – West Coast (8-1) – 1st

2016 – North Melbourne (9-0) – lost EF

2015 – Fremantle (9-0) – lost PF

2013 – Hawthorn (8-1) – 1st

2013 – Geelong (8-1) – lost PF

2012 – West Coast (8-1) – lost SF

2012 – Essendon (8-1) – DQ

2011 – Geelong (9-0) – 1st

2011 – Collingwood (8-1) – lost GF

2009 – St Kilda (9-0) – lost GF

2009 – Geelong (9-0) – 1st
50% chance of making the grandy? Lid loosened somewhat
 

JohnZ

Club Legend
Mar 10, 2016
2,422
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Look at other teams percentages. WCE 103%, Richmond 109%, Pies 120%, GWS 140% after beating up on some **** teams (Melbourne, GC), was 120% before that and will drop again. No other team is anywhere near us when it comes to consistent attack or defence.
 

Vdubs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 1, 2008
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Look at other teams percentages. WCE 103%, Richmond 109%, Pies 120%, GWS 140% after beating up on some **** teams (Melbourne, GC), was 120% before that and will drop again. No other team is anywhere near us when it comes to consistent attack or defence.
GWS have a better array of tall forwards- 3 in fact.
GWS have a better #1 ruckman, I say begrudgingly, as I can't stand the big Mummy.
GWS have a better array of attacking mids.
Our defence is better.
 

catempire

Moderator
Mar 20, 2004
32,055
57,419
Melbourne
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GWS have a better array of tall forwards- 3 in fact.
GWS have a better #1 ruckman, I say begrudgingly, as I can't stand the big Mummy.
GWS have a better array of attacking mids.
Our defence is better.
Yet, we have a gap on them. Better, some might say.
 

Doctor Gero

TheBrownDog
Oct 28, 2012
75,213
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The last 7 sides that went more than a game clear on top all failed to win the flag.
None were us though, some lesser scrub clubs.

LID IS OFF.
 

JohnZ

Club Legend
Mar 10, 2016
2,422
2,827
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GWS have a better array of tall forwards- 3 in fact.
GWS have a better #1 ruckman, I say begrudgingly, as I can't stand the big Mummy.
GWS have a better array of attacking mids.
Our defence is better.
Geelong #1 points scored in 2019
Geelong #1 for points against (least)

These are the stats that matter. We could have Doug Wade, Gary Snr and Tom Hawkins in our fwd line, but if theyre not kicking a winning score every week (which GWS are not), then theyre not the best fwd line.
 

geelong_crazy26

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 13, 2006
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The lid is well and truly on still.

We have been playing average footy the past 3-4 weeks in a lot of areas of the game yet still doing enough to win which is both a positive and a negative.

Winning below your best is the sign of a very good team, but how long can you do that for without it becoming a generalized concern for your side?

If we continue to get smashed in contested football and clearances, than my lid is well and truly shut and bolted tight.

If we don’t address this aspect of our game and at least neutralize it with the best sides, than I am not going to be chest beating regardless of our ladder position after seasons end.

We need to at least tidy this aspect of our game up before we can do anything with the lid.

If we are minus 15-30 contested possessions and getting smashed at center clearances and stoppages against GWS and Collingwood In a final... well my lid won’t be feeling too great about the prospect of those results.

Looking very good at this stage, but still have a lot of work to do between now and then.
 

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Vdubs

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 1, 2008
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48 J 09
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Geelong #1 points scored in 2019
Geelong #1 for points against (least)

These are the stats that matter. We could have Doug Wade, Gary Snr and Tom Hawkins in our fwd line, but if theyre not kicking a winning score every week (which GWS are not), then theyre not the best fwd line.
We are marginally ahead of GWS in those 2 stats THIS WEEK.
Let's revisit next week.
 

geelong_crazy26

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 13, 2006
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8 points by my count
They did beat us down at home...

I think we are a better team as I can’t see how they could play better than they did against us and I can’t see us playing any worse.. it should be a close one if we meet in finals.
 

Mad_Hatter

Norm Smith Medallist
Nov 12, 2015
8,300
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Lid is back on for me, mostly because now we have far more to lose.
Sitting 2 games and a wack of percentage on top of the ladder means finals are a foregone conclusion, top 2 is almost a certainty which means anything short of a Flag really won't be good enough.
That changes the entire expectations for me, I had none to start the year so would have been reasonably happy to make the finals, not making them being a failure and bombing out first week being below par and worth questions being asked, but now... now we are currently either the best team in the comp, or equal best (GWS) so with that comes a higher chance of success, and a further full into failure, which scares the **** out of me.
To me losing a GF is still a failure, yes it's a failure within success and worthy of some acknowledgement but it's also the greatest failure, and the fact ultimate success is so close to heartbreaking failure makes me even more nervous about what's to come.
I kind of feel this year might be a year that influences the next decade in a lot of ways, I'm not sure how but I just have this feeling about this group and what may come depending on which way they go, similar I guess to the GFC of 2007, would the next decade have changed dramatically had we lost to the Pies in the PF?
So I've moved into a wary confidence, a sense that our best is good enough and from here we should be looking to a flag, but the understanding there are clubs out there who might feel the exact same way, and with justification.
 

romeohwho

Norm Smith Medallist
Apr 20, 2015
8,216
8,351
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GWS are very good. Pies are pretty good,( and have soft draw) West Coast might pick up and are capable of being very good if they do. Tigers are quite good.
We are pretty good. So that’s five teams who can play. Then Brisbane are improving, even dopey crows have a pretty good draw and could shape things.
Given how many of our supporters thought we’d go ordinary this year, it’s not too shabby at the moment.
 
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xtatik222k

Club Legend
May 24, 2008
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I still haven't seen much to make me think GWS can play on the big stage against a good team at the MCG.
For me, the teams to worry about are Collingwood and West Coast. Both are capable of playing in huge games at the G and turning up when it matters. The Pies are one of those sleeping giants. If you get a blinder from Pendlebury, Sidebottom, DeGoey and Cox, they're almost impossible to beat.
 

Turbocat

Premium Platinum
Dec 10, 2003
37,540
33,747
Newtown
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Lid is back on for me, mostly because now we have far more to lose.
Sitting 2 games and a wack of percentage on top of the ladder means finals are a foregone conclusion, top 2 is almost a certainty which means anything short of a Flag really won't be good enough.
That changes the entire expectations for me, I had none to start the year so would have been reasonably happy to make the finals, not making them being a failure and bombing out first week being below par and worth questions being asked, but now... now we are currently either the best team in the comp, or equal best (GWS) so with that comes a higher chance of success, and a further full into failure, which scares the **** out of me.
To me losing a GF is still a failure, yes it's a failure within success and worthy of some acknowledgement but it's also the greatest failure, and the fact ultimate success is so close to heartbreaking failure makes me even more nervous about what's to come.
I kind of feel this year might be a year that influences the next decade in a lot of ways, I'm not sure how but I just have this feeling about this group and what may come depending on which way they go, similar I guess to the GFC of 2007, would the next decade have changed dramatically had we lost to the Pies in the PF?
So I've moved into a wary confidence, a sense that our best is good enough and from here we should be looking to a flag, but the understanding there are clubs out there who might feel the exact same way, and with justification.
Great post ..so many points resonate with me.

The tipping point of the PF against the Pies.. Sidding doors some call it... is so true.

Yes we are no in a position that come the end of the year we are antagonist in someone elses fairytale. History is written by the victor.
For example..how often have we heard of the Miracle on Ice , told from the US side etc ..great story against the odds etc. Recently I saw a 30:30 ESPN doc that showed the russian side of it and it was very different with their own pressures and background.. Showed how for years in developing the ice hockey the russians wanted play against the pros in the usa/canadian league .. and the pros were the almighty unbeatable etc. When they finals got approval to play the Pros they had their own Miracle on Ice , it was them that played the pure hockey and the pros, with the reps. were the ones who played thug hockey.. one pro broke the leg or ankle of the Russian being reckless with his stick when losing. It was a great demonstration to me that to the victor goes the spoils ..and the story.

Losing a GF a failure? Many will say no its not ... I say its unfortunate but its almost the worst type of failure. Its Gallipli failure.

How often have were heard of us in 07.. how much do we here about Port that year? I remember 1980. That era of Final Five ..its was a rigged comp.. the side that finished top had a very high percentage of winning the flag.... until Geelong finished top. Cause our particular paradigm was not the norm. Asking us to play at VFL park after finishing on top ..was like asking the Crows to play a home game at the G.Its unfair failure. Being brave and just getting to a GF is forgotten or discounted ..like us in 1994 is not really mentioned when WC wipe the floor with us. And those losses set the framework of future stories. So the key moments in time , like the 07 PF are very relevant.

Go back to the much vaunted 89 GF really ..that was a Collingwood PF for us in that era. It was the tipping point , win that and who knows .. we may have had 2 or 3 Flags in that era. Certainly 90 was a bust but 91 we were good enough. 92 3 or 4 goals up , minutes before 1/2 time, 93 Ablett went on a tear like I have never seen before or will never see again.. but we didnt even get tot the finals with a final 6 with a short season. Those big games lost then was key in developing an underlying fear of failure...that only grew bigger and bigger. So that by 95 ..when the Carlton side started well..one could sense the players were mind walking.. they were already thinking..not again , not another one.

So like it or not ..yes this year seems like a tipping point because our results now are raising us to a limited excuse parapet . We will either be encased by the finals ineptitude that we have shown in recent years or totally break free and set a new framework for the likes of selwood, Danger , Ablett , Duncan and the rest. Legends will be written and defining mythology developed. The crunch is coming.... sure we can try to keep the lid on but I suspect we may have to learn to play with it off come Sept.
 
Last edited:

Max Milburn

Premiership Player
Aug 10, 2018
3,489
6,656
Hobbiton, Tasmania
AFL Club
Geelong
Great post ..some many points resonate with me.

The tipping point of the PF against the Pies.. Sidding doors some call it... is so true.

Yes we are no in a position that come the end of the year we are antagonist in someone elses fairytale. History is written by the victor.
For example..how often have we heard of the Miracle on Ice , told from the US side etc ..great story against the odds etc. Recently I saw a 30:30 ESPN doc that showed the russian side of it and it was very different with their own pressures and background.. Showed how for years in developing the ice hockey the russians wanted play against the pros in the usa/canadian league .. and the pros were the almighty unbeatable etc. When they finals got approval to play the Pros they had their own Miracle on Ice , it was them that played the pure hockey and the pros, with the reps. were the ones who played thug hockey.. one pro broke the leg or ankle of the Russian being reckless with his stick when losing. It was a great demonstration to me that to the victor goes the spoils ..and the story.

Losing a GF a failure? Many will say no its not ... I say its unfortunate but its almost the worst type of failure. Its Gallipli failure.

How often have were heard of us in 07.. how much do we here about Port that year? I remember 1980. That era of Final Five ..its was a rigged comp.. the side that finished top had a very high percentage of winning the flag.... until Geelong finished top. Cause our particular paradigm was not the norm. Asking us to play at VFL park after finishing on top ..was like asking the Crows to play a home game at the G.Its unfair failure. Being brave and just getting to a GF is forgotten or discounted ..like us in 1994 is not really mentioned when WC wipe the floor with us. And those losses set the framework of future stories. So the key moments in time , like the 07 PF are very relevant.

Go back to the much vaunted 89 GF really ..that was a Collingwood PF for us in that era. It was the tipping point , win that and who knows .. we may have had 2 or 3 Flags in that era. Certainly 90 was a bust but 91 we were good enough. 92 3 or 4 goals up , minutes before 1/2 time, 93 Ablett went on a tear like I have never seen before or will never see again.. but we didnt even get tot the finals with a final 6 with a short season. Those big games lost then was key in developing an underlying fear of failure...that only grew bigger and bigger. So that by 95 ..when the Carlton side started well..one could sense the players were mid walking.. they were already thinking..not again , not another one.

So like it or not ..yes this year seems like a tipping point because our results now are raising us to a limited excuse parapet . We will either be encased by the finals ineptitude that we have shown in recent years or totally break free and set a new framework for the likes of selwood, Danger , Ablett , Duncan and the rest. Legends will be written and defining mythology developed. The crunch is coming.... sure we can try to keep the lid on but I suspect we may have to learn to play with it off come Sept.
Dare I suggest therapy mate?
 

Turbocat

Premium Platinum
Dec 10, 2003
37,540
33,747
Newtown
AFL Club
Geelong
Here’s an argument for the lid...

Of the 11 teams to be 8-1 or better in the past decade, only 4 have gone on to win the flag. A further two have made the grand final. So only just better than even chance of making the GF from here, based on history.

2018 – West Coast (8-1) – 1st

2016 – North Melbourne (9-0) – lost EF

2015 – Fremantle (9-0) – lost PF

2013 – Hawthorn (8-1) – 1st

2013 – Geelong (8-1) – lost PF

2012 – West Coast (8-1) – lost SF

2012 – Essendon (8-1) – DQ

2011 – Geelong (9-0) – 1st

2011 – Collingwood (8-1) – lost GF

2009 – St Kilda (9-0) – lost GF

2009 – Geelong (9-0) – 1st
Any info on 10-1 ? One would think..good starts would have to indicate more as it continues...
I think that 09 game between St's and us R14 ist almost had to be the GF ..both unbeaten till that game. The opposition would have to play a part.. North in 16 had a very good start but played mostly bottom sides..
 

Max Milburn

Premiership Player
Aug 10, 2018
3,489
6,656
Hobbiton, Tasmania
AFL Club
Geelong
The lid is the lid.
It has only two states - off and on.
It is either weighed down by disappointment and mediocrity or bulging from beneath with promise and anticipation.
Once off, it's very hard to get back on.
Release it at your own peril.
 
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