The math behind multis

[Donkson]

my question was why do you need to bet multis?

you answered by saying 'because kelly says so'

and you think you're adding value to the forum?

 

[KP78]

I am showing three plays that have a win percentage of 60%:

Sydney -8.5
Melbourne -21.5
North Melbourne +18.5

I am on Geelong and Adelaide at the line as my two bets of the week so you can up the winning percentage of 2 of your bets to 80%

 

[brett128]

I rate the Sydney bet at -8.5 as one of the best bets so far this season.

 

[Island Bomber]

I rate the Sydney bet at -8.5 as one of the best bets so far this season.

Just out of interest, based on what?

 

[brett128]

The predictive capacity of 65 match variables, weather effects on HFA, and some market based angles. All these orthogonal methods are looking the same way. It's not often that my model does this.

This is my 5th bet of the season where I have got down assuming a 62% win percentage ATS.

Definition of orthogonality:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orthogonality#Statistics.2C_econometrics.2C_and_economics

 

[Island Bomber]

That sure is a complex approach and if it pays off for you good luck. Personally myself l think your 65 variables haven't factored in a couple of important things that to me swing this game in Geelong's favour.

1. A near full strength Geelong side for the first time this year.
2. Geelong has beaten Sydney 9 out of the last ten times they have played.
3. Sydney's latest two wins have been overrated, 4 points against an Essendon side that scored 2 goals to three quarter time and a win over the Bulldogs who nobody seriously rates as a top 8 side.

Good luck with your methods anyhow, but l'll be taking the Cats +8.5.

 

[Donkson]

who'd have thought a 62% win% would lose 1200% of your bankroll twice?

amazing!

 

[Island Bomber]

Cats covered the line as expected, should have won without that poor first quarter effort.

 

[Nothing]

I rate the Sydney bet at -8.5 as one of the best bets so far this season.

Maybe your z-values and 64-variables are broken.

 

[brett128]

Hhmm was a close one. Unfortunate that the Sydney bloke chose the dribble from 10m out to hit the post with seconds to go. Taking the under on the game dampened my loss somewhat though.

Well that's 3-2 ATS on my best line plays this year.

There's two additional plays in the works at 55% ATS tomorrow. However the line needs to move 2 points towards Freo for me to take Freo at +8.5. Collingwood needs to move to -12.5 (highly unlikely), otherwise it's a no bet.

I might release some totals plays, only after I get down on them though.

 

[Donkson]

-1200% incoming.

 

[The_Doctor]

Hhmm was a close one. Unfortunate that the Sydney bloke chose the dribble from 10m out to hit the post with seconds to go. Taking the under on the game dampened my loss somewhat though.

Well that's 3-2 ATS on my best line plays this year.

There's two additional plays in the works at 55% ATS tomorrow. However the line needs to move 2 points towards Freo for me to take Freo at +8.5. Collingwood needs to move to -12.5 (highly unlikely), otherwise it's a no bet.

I might release some totals plays, only after I get down on them though.

Thats punting, it wasn't the only poster in the match. Where did you mention the under bet?

 

[Nothing]

Can't wait. By the way, your tally starts at 0 you can't count that which you haven't posted.

 

[brett128]

Tants, i'm happy to get down for $10K in any season long ATS competition you want. We can start in a few months with the NFL.

Both of us need to pick any 6 games ATS to cover per week for 18 weeks. The winner is the person that covers the most over their 108 ATS plays. We'll organize escrow a week or two before the season starts. My lawyer friend can organize a written agreement.

Your genius idea of fading ******s, vs my modelling. What do ya say?

PM me.

 

[Donkson]

lol

 

[Nothing]

I'd say why limit myself to lines. And why limit myself to NFL. I can't choose what the Fadee will pick, they may well be broke by the time NF comes around (I hope not). If you are so confident in your system my chump change on the side wont make 1 iota of difference.

Merely pointing out a couple of the boards rules around bragging about winning bets after the event seems to have ruffled your feathers. I'm sure Kelly will do you well as long as the % edge you think you have is accurate. Keep posting your plays, I'm sure eveyone will enjoy the laughs.

 

[Terror Time]

he doesn't actually answer anything though, his reasoning is just "my model says so"

Why would anyone talk to you at all? lol.... sif he needs to tell you a thing now get back on the betfair forum where you belong

 

[brett128]

You can even pick the NBA if you want. We could take 6 picks per week until the season ends next year.

How about a combined NFL/NBA comp choosing 10 ATS plays per week?

 

[Donkson]

betfair forum?

thanks for the advice though, gl with the multis.

 

[The_Doctor]

Why would anyone talk to you at all? lol.... sif he needs to tell you a thing now get back on the betfair forum where you belong

Pick your battles mate

 

[The_Doctor]

You can even pick the NBA if you want. We could take 6 picks per week until the season ends next year.

How about a combined NFL/NBA comp choosing 10 ATS plays per week?

Whats wrong with AFL, NRL, Tennis etc?

 

[Nothing]

As mentioned, my fading doesn't have limits. Whether it be NBA/NFL/Curling or Snooker. If I'm fading someone I can't pick and choose a sport. Though if I had to pick to would be the college ball. My fadee was even fading himself in the end.

How about you worry about your losses and I'll worry about mine (when I have some)

 

[Borgsta]

What are your 65 variables?

 

[brett128]

All stats available at pro-stats.com.au. At least they're not so tight ass with their data like champion is. I couldn't even buy the data from champion.

Unless you're the AFL, an AFL club, or the books, champion keeps an iron grip on its xml data feeds.

 

[asanque]

All stats available at pro-stats.com.au. At least they're not so tight arse with their data like champion is. I couldn't even buy the data from champion.

Unless you're the AFL, an AFL club, or the books, champion keeps an iron grip on its xml data feeds.

You could potentially try TedSport.
http://www.tedsport.com.au/pre-game

He is one of the ex-founders of ChampionData.