The math behind multis

[Rourke]

Can not believe how many noobs post on here and other punting boards across the web. Anyone that relies on a model in sport is in for a heartache as sport does not follow cyclical variations. Teams do what they wanna do and will continue to do so and the kelly model doesn't take into account injuries.

I like the bit where he said that the mathematically proven best formula for deciding on the size of a bet is wrong because ... injuries.

And the bit where you can't include things like injuries in your model.

And the bit where calling $1.20-$1.30 a 'near certainty' leads to profits.

• Even more so when you take it HT/FT, like Coll vs GWS
• Even more so when you multi 'em up.
• Even more so when you habitually fully hedge the last leg.

But that's just me, I'm a Kelly-loving noob who has profited 143% on the season so far with all bets made public the Tuesday before the round starts. Virtually all of it from underdogs.

 

[Rourke]

Quite new to all this, how does one incoporate injuries in a 'model'?

First thing is to develop a metric of how far from full strength each team is, each week. Gus Smarrini's Full Strength Indicator is a pretty good start. You might think that Gaz is 9% of Gold Coast's output, and his replacement is only going to manage about 4%.

Second thing is to test the metric and make sure you see the sort of correlation you expect from past results, and analyse the effect of losing each percentage point for a team. It may not be linear.

Third thing is to put it into your model along with all the other bits & bobs. And maintain the info, which can be time-consuming.

Finally ... profit.

 

[Dominion]

Where do you post your plays rourke?

 

[Rourke]

Where do you post your plays rourke?

TedSport & the AFL Predictor App

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

TedSport & the AFL Predictor App

Why not here?
No offence, but posting how much you have won without posting your plays on this site makes your claims lack credibility.

 

[Rourke]

Why not here?
No offence, but posting how much you have won without posting your plays on this site makes your claims lack credibility.

Really? You want a carbon copy of something that's publicly available? The subscribers are happy, the bet sizes are all available in the archive there if you want to check it yourself, and this week's bets were posted on Tuesday as usual.

 

[Kynge of Begrem]

Really? You want a carbon copy of something that's publicly available? The subscribers are happy, the bet sizes are all available in the archive there if you want to check it yourself, and this week's bets were posted on Tuesday as usual.

Really? You want a carbon copy of something that's publicly available? The subscribers are happy, the bet sizes are all available in the archive there if you want to check it yourself, and this week's bets were posted on Tuesday as usual.

woah, easy tiger.

 

[KardiniaPark]

It's a stupid ****ing point and he should be euthanized. (As humanely as possible. Shot behind a curtain would suffice though)

 

[asanque]

How can it be a stupid point when I stated that it has made me quite a bit of money this year, especially when I have multi'd a few of them up together, give it a go

 

[KardiniaPark]

You're a ******* stupid point lol. We'll see who has the last laugh come the end of the weekend. I'm sure you find more value in $1.08 H2H rather than $1.25 HT/FT for a game such as Bulldogs V Sydney a few weeks ago?

Just because its paying more doesn't make it better value

 

[Nothing]

Just because its paying more doesn't make it better value

That's why you multi them together*. That gives you the value.



*Don't forget to hedge the last leg though otherwise you'll lose that extra value when your original bet loses.

 

[GROTTO]

$6 on an 18 leg multi at $6700 paying out ~ $40,000. Impressive.