Roast The mental forfeits

[Niximus]

I know we've just had a gutsy undermanned, underdog win and that is why it's a good time to address this. Free from bad loss melts, and with most having a generally positive outlook we can discuss the major issue this club has with what you could call 'mental forfeits', those games where we are completely non-competitive, look disinterested, lazy and all around horrible. Sometimes it can be just for a quarter and that's game-over.

There is a lot of backslapping happening atm after the Sydney win, but we are still only one game removed from our last mental forfeit.

Players have bad games from time to time and occasionally a whole team will have a bad day, but you can't collectively fail to show up with the regularity that we have and expect success.

Our last 4 finals campaigns have either been ended, or severely derailed by mental forfeits, and in 2016 we cost ourselves top 4 with one in the last H&A game.

North Melbourne, Melbourne, 1st half v Collingwood and of course the GF last year. Collingwood already this year.

Each time it has happened I've liked to hope that the players are hurting along with me and that this time will be the one that burns into them a desire to never allow it to happen again. This is where the Collingwood game really kicked me in the guts. The GF was the ultimate "that HAS to fire them up" game and we go and again dish up a complete non-effort.

 

[Betts are off]

I know we've just had a gutsy undermanned, underdog win and that is why it's a good time to address this. Free from bad loss melts, and with most having a generally positive outlook we can discuss the major issue this club has with what you could call 'mental forfeits', those games where we are completely non-competitive, look disinterested, lazy and all around horrible. Sometimes it can be just for a quarter and that's game-over.

There is a lot of backslapping happening atm after the Sydney win, but we are still only one game removed from our last mental forfeit.

Players have bad games from time to time and occasionally a whole team will have a bad day, but you can't collectively fail to show up with the regularity that we have and expect success.

Our last 4 finals campaigns have either been ended, or severely derailed by mental forfeits, and in 2016 we cost ourselves top 4 with one in the last H&A game.

North Melbourne, Melbourne, 1st half v Collingwood and of course the GF last year. Collingwood already this year.

Each time it has happened I've liked to hope that the players are hurting along with me and that this time will be the one that burns into them a desire to never allow it to happen again. This is where the Collingwood game really kicked me in the guts. The GF was the ultimate "that HAS to fire them up" game and we go and again dish up a complete non-effort.

Its a legitimate concern, but also a concern that is well documented across all 18 teams. The competition is so even now that you need to turn up at 100% otherwise you're a mile off the pace! I mean just look at everyone tips, those would indicate that pretty much every team has had really poor and unexpected losses so far this year!

In terms of the Crows, we seem to perform repeatedly poorly against teams that we underrate. Roos last year were a joke, but they came to play and taught us a lesson. The Pies this and last year were widely seen as underdogs and they beasted us for 1.5 of those games. The Melbourne game on our home deck should have been a walk in the park. Hell even the Tigers in the GF should have been our game.

To me it points to poor preparation for those 'easier' games. Maybe its something Pykey needs to address with his coaches. Maybe its something the players need to look at with their own prep. Either way its pretty obviously an effort thing IMO, and although its certainly not exclusively a Crows problem, its something that we as fans hope to never see from our club. Cause it sends this place in the meltdown overdrive!

 

[Bearded Clam]

I swear half of them, including the GF last year, we went into arrogantly thinking we were gonna win by a heap of goals..

And then when things started going against us in those games and we started losing.. we had no answers except to retreat into panic mode in a state of shock..

It’s games like the next two that really worry me... I’m more confident we’ll smash Port in three weeks from now than I am about beating the Suns and Carlton over the next two weeks.. all because the lads know that Port will be a challenge (they always are no matter what their current form is) so they will go into that game ready for a real fight... suns and Carlton not so much..

 

[Niximus]

It's not exclusively a Crows problem, but I can't think of any club who has paid such a high price for them so frequently.
If 05-09 was the era of heartbreaking close losses in finals
2005 QF - 8 points
2005 PF - 16 points
2006 PF - 10 points
2007 EF - 3 points
- - - 2008 EF - 31 points
2009 SF - 5 points

Then we're currently in the era of heartbreaking mental forfeits in finals
2015 SF - 10 goals to 2 start
2016 SF - 6 goals to 1 start
2017 GF - 1 goal in the 2nd and 3rd quarters

2012 had a foot in both eras
QF - Mental forfeit v Swans - 1 goal in each of the first 3 quarters and 2 in the last
PF - close loss - 5 points

Whatever is causing it, it keeps happening and I've lost faith that they can do anything about it. If they can even be bothered.

 

[GreyCrow]

Chequebook footy. They get paid next week no matter the result. There are no consequences. Bad loss? Drop the injured and carry on playing the structure. There seems to be no fear at the club

 

[Scorpus]

Its a legitimate concern, but also a concern that is well documented across all 18 teams

I disagree. Some of the most successful teams in the competition over the last 10 years have not had horrendous losses during the season.

In fact this is the table of the largest and second largest losses by a premiership team in the season:

Richmond - 76 point loss to Adelaide. 67 point loss to St Kilda
Western Bulldogs - 57 point loss to Geelong. 25 point loss to Geelong.
Hawthorn - 32 point loss to West Coast in the QF. 22 point loss to Port.
Hawthorn - 20 point loss to North Melbourne. 19 point loss to Fremantle.
Hawthorn - 41 point loss to Richmond. 10 point loss to Geelong.
Sydney - 34 point loss to Geelong. 29 point loss to Richmond.
Geelong - 13 point loss to Sydney. 8 point loss to West Coast.
Collingwood - 36 point loss to Geelong. 28 point loss to St Kilda.
Geelong - 43 point loss to Brisbane. 35 point loss to Carlton
Hawthorn - 32 point loss to Western Bulldogs. 30 point loss to St Kilda

Adelaide in 2017 - 59 point loss to North Melbourne. 48 point loss to Richmond (in GF). 41 point loss to Melbourne

Looking at the list of premiership teams, the largest losses during the season are overwhelmingly to finalists. Often these losses are to teams that go deep into finals, if not make the grand final. The exceptions are Richmond's loss to St Kilda last year, and Sydney's loss to Richmond in 2012.

In 2017 we lost to two non-finalists by margins that are larger than some of the largest losses (mostly to finalists) by recent premiership teams.

There is certainly a case that all teams have a bad day. However most premiership teams do not have bad days against bottom teams, and when premiership teams do inevitably have a bad day, it's usually against a fellow finalist

 

[matty p]

I disagree. Some of the most successful teams in the competition over the last 10 years have not had horrendous losses during the season.

In fact this is the table of the largest and second largest losses by a premiership team in the season:

Richmond - 76 point loss to Adelaide. 67 point loss to St Kilda
Western Bulldogs - 57 point loss to Geelong. 25 point loss to Geelong.
Hawthorn - 32 point loss to West Coast in the QF. 22 point loss to Port.
Hawthorn - 20 point loss to North Melbourne. 19 point loss to Fremantle.
Hawthorn - 41 point loss to Richmond. 10 point loss to Geelong.
Sydney - 34 point loss to Geelong. 29 point loss to Richmond.
Geelong - 13 point loss to Sydney. 8 point loss to West Coast.
Collingwood - 36 point loss to Geelong. 28 point loss to St Kilda.
Geelong - 43 point loss to Brisbane. 35 point loss to Carlton
Hawthorn - 32 point loss to Western Bulldogs. 30 point loss to St Kilda

Adelaide in 2017 - 59 point loss to North Melbourne. 48 point loss to Richmond (in GF). 41 point loss to Melbourne

Looking at the list of premiership teams, the largest losses during the season are overwhelmingly to finalists. Often these losses are to teams that go deep into finals, if not make the grand final. The exceptions are Richmond's loss to St Kilda last year, and Sydney's loss to Richmond in 2012.

In 2017 we lost to two non-finalists by margins that are larger than some of the largest losses (mostly to finalists) by recent premiership teams.

There is certainly a case that all teams have a bad day. However most premiership teams do not have bad days against bottom teams, and when premiership teams do inevitably have a bad day, it's usually against a fellow finalist

I think the point is though that particularly this season and last season the competition is so even that if any team doesn't turn up 100% switched on they're susceptible to losing to any other team in the league, including the cellar dwellers. That's somewhat reflected in the stats you posted, in that the top teams seem to be having poor losses to the bottom teams more often now than in the past.

It certainly wasn't just us last year. Geelong had a big problem performing against teams that they were expected to beat, as did most other teams.

 

[kulak]

The Collingwood loss was practically a schedule loss. And Collingwood might turn out to be a good team this year, they certainly played well in the last few weeks.

The round 1 Q4 collapse vs Essendon however...

 

[Golumless]

I think the point is though that particularly this season and last season the competition is so even that if any team doesn't turn up 100% switched on they're susceptible to losing to any other team in the league, including the cellar dwellers. That's somewhat reflected in the stats you posted, in that the top teams seem to be having poor losses to the bottom teams more often now than in the past.

It certainly wasn't just us last year. Geelong had a big problem performing against teams that they were expected to beat, as did most other teams.

It's also due to there is no truly good teams currently, with finals being decided by just whoever hits a golden patch in September. A far cry from the Hawks/Geelong dynasties during the start/middle of this decade.

 

[Thegibbsgamble]

It's pathetic people forget how many times Victorian umpires lost us big finals, to make thier point

 

[Rotayjay]

Under Sanderson you never knew which Crows side would turn up. In 2015 (the Walsh/Campo season) and 2016 (Pyke's first) I'm pretty sure we had no upset losses. By contrast, on 2017 we had a number of upset losses, and I think it's safe to say we are still stuck in that pattern now. It may be early in the season but we have already given up a good lead against Essendon and put in a putrid effort against Collingwood.

 

[mistylake]

I know we've just had a gutsy undermanned, underdog win and that is why it's a good time to address this. Free from bad loss melts, and with most having a generally positive outlook we can discuss the major issue this club has with what you could call 'mental forfeits', those games where we are completely non-competitive, look disinterested, lazy and all around horrible. Sometimes it can be just for a quarter and that's game-over.

There is a lot of backslapping happening atm after the Sydney win, but we are still only one game removed from our last mental forfeit.

Players have bad games from time to time and occasionally a whole team will have a bad day, but you can't collectively fail to show up with the regularity that we have and expect success.

Our last 4 finals campaigns have either been ended, or severely derailed by mental forfeits, and in 2016 we cost ourselves top 4 with one in the last H&A game.

North Melbourne, Melbourne, 1st half v Collingwood and of course the GF last year. Collingwood already this year.

Each time it has happened I've liked to hope that the players are hurting along with me and that this time will be the one that burns into them a desire to never allow it to happen again. This is where the Collingwood game really kicked me in the guts. The GF was the ultimate "that HAS to fire them up" game and we go and again dish up a complete non-effort.

Those that were whining about us being critical of this fact have Bloody short memories.
Considering the aim is to win games I think it’s 100% acceptable to be critical of the team for regularly not turning up.
We’ve proved it’s not injuries, fitness game plan.
It’s almost entirely what’s going on in the collective mindset of this team.

 

[Apsaalooke]

Its not all above the head despite what everyone says. There are many other factors such as bad selection, carrying injured players compounded by further injuries on the day, umpiring calls, game plans upset by different oval dimensions, coaching inertia/errors, goal kicking accuracy etc etc. Some of these are controllable and some aren't but they all add up on the day.

The mental part of the 2017 GF which still bothers me is what did really happen at half time in the rooms? Was there really a punchup between Tex and Lever or is all that BS? I don't know if its true or not but one day the story may come out.

 

[GreyCrow]

Its not all above the head despite what everyone says. There are many other factors such as bad selection, carrying injured players compounded by further injuries on the day, umpiring calls, game plans upset by different oval dimensions, coaching inertia/errors, goal kicking accuracy etc etc. Some of these are controllable and some aren't but they all add up on the day.

If the team had lost by a few points I might agree, even 10 points but our losses are more than the sum of these

If our game plan doesnt take into account the size of the oval then the coaches should be removed. e.g the Sydney game utilised completely the dimensions of the oval Our plan to zone at certain spots choked the life out of Sydney , especially from their kickouts

 

[Thegibbsgamble]

Under Sanderson you never knew which Crows side would turn up. In 2015 (the Walsh/Campo season) and 2016 (Pyke's first) I'm pretty sure we had no upset losses.

We lost to WC at home in 2016. Cost us top 2 and 4

Massive upset that ended any chance

 

[Rotayjay]

We lost to WC at home in 2016. Cost us top 2 and 4

Massive upset that ended any chance

That was a shocker. It was leading into 2017 I guess

 

[Thetrader15]

1993...42pts

Say no more

 

[Apsaalooke]

If the team had lost by a few points I might agree, even 10 points but our losses are more than the sum of these

If our game plan doesnt take into account the size of the oval then the coaches should be removed. e.g the Sydney game utilised completely the dimensions of the oval Our plan to zone at certain spots choked the life out of Sydney , especially from their kickouts

But if each individual factor costs you 1-2 goals then it compounds. Not saying it applies to the Grand Final but even an 8 goal loss can be due to 4 turnovers.
The mental side is important but unquantifiable. I don’t think it’s the whole story though even if conventional wisdom says it is.

 

[CrowBloke]

I've thought a lot about this thread topic, good one .
I think it's about "We-should-win-this", either before or during a game.
It's a combination of complacency and mental relaxation. I've lost track of the number of times the Crows have got 3, 4 or 5 goals ahead --- which is when they start to think "We-should-win-this" --- then start playing pretty, fancy footy (handballs back over the head, little soft kicks while dragging the back leg, general drop-off of desperation and one-% acts etc) and stop doing what they've been doing which got them ahead in the first place.
eg against Melbourne last year, we were nearly 5 goals up in the second quarter then they kicked multiple unanswered goals into the third quarter as well.
I suspect the Crows were thinking "We-should-win-this" before the Essendon and Collingwood games this year.
It's mental weakness and/or hubris, of the kind that recent Premiership-winners Hawthorn, Geelong, Sydney and Brisbane before them would never have lapsed into. On the contrary, those teams often fought back from losing positions or just ground away to hammer inferior teams.
Richmond last year and the Bulldogs in 2016 timed their runs to be playing their best footy in Finals, but those Premierships are infrequent --- most Premiers come from teams that win tight games, win hard/ugly games, come from behind to win, and thrash weaker opposition. When Brisbane and the Hawks completed their hat tricks (especially), they were formidable. Tough mongrels playing skillful and unsociable footy which the Crows emulate only occasionally eg Round 18 and the 2017 PF (both vs Cats), and wins against Richmond and Sydney this year.

The additional element has to do with entitlement, as if the tragedies and troubles of 2015 and 2016 meant that we 'deserved' to win the 2017 Flag. Posters on this Board and from rival clubs have said as much, often.
It's misplaced, erroneous thinking.
Our Minor Round efforts meant that we deserved to play Finals. Our QF and PF wins meant that we deserved to play in the GF, ie to contest it. The Crows earned that, but that's the only deserving involved. Pyke knew what was ahead of them in that week before the GF. He said that everything leading up to the GF was over and the challenge ahead was to win it.
The reasons for the GF loss are multiple and complicated, but on the day Richmond certainly out-pressured us and were united in their single-minded determination to make it happen, which they did.

 

[John Who]

I think there are 2 main separate issues overlapping each other, where most often see it as just the one issue. The end result being that the highly-rated team (ie. Crows) loses to an "underdog team" and often by a margin that is very unexpected. The issues how I see it are:
1. Complacency/Mental Fragility
2. Seasonal anomalies

The second point in the above ("anomalies"), is basically going to happen to any sporting team in the professional arena. The cliche "any team can win on any given day" holds true once or twice in a year where you will see ridiculous upsets that nobody can imagine, and I mean NOBODY. There are many factors that can contribute to this, examples:
- several players going through a viral illness amongst the team
- jet lag from travelling too much in a short period of time
- personal tragedies amongst the club
- players having new babies and temporary additional chores behind the scenes
- injuries to key players which unsettles the structure of the team

If it's something that happens 1-2 times a season, then usually you can regard them as anomalies and you just move on, without the need to overanalyse. Because often, there won't be a one clear causal factor in these situations.

The first point in the above ("complacency"/"mental fragility"), is probably the topic thread in question. I don't think it's fair to compare this team to all the other failures of Crows teams of yesteryear. If we were to talk about this current team, then probably best to look at the last 2-3 years where the core group remains relatively the same. Losing the Grand Final last year shows we still haven't conquered all our mental demons yet, but if we look at it from a year-to-year basis, then I do feel we have become more physically and mentally stronger. These past few rounds, we can't really judge them too much because we have significant injuries in the midfield (missing Crouch Bros and a hobbling Sloane). Though the positive is that whilst having significant reduction in manpower, we overran a Sydney team at their home ground, which shows us that our "mental game" is good enough for the time being. Where it leads us for the next few months, that's an entirely separate issue!

 

[Vhaluus]

The Collingwood loss was practically a schedule loss. And Collingwood might turn out to be a good team this year, they certainly played well in the last few weeks.

The round 1 Q4 collapse vs Essendon however...

Essendon are a much better side than Collingwood.

Expect to see a 30+ point win today.

 

[CrowBloke]

I think there are 2 main separate issues overlapping each other, where most often see it as just the one issue.

Yes, it's often oversimplified, and much more complex even than the 2 overlapping issues you mention.

2. Seasonal anomalies

You could add to that the Jake Leaver factor which contributed massively to team disunity over the last part of 2017. I thought we did really well just to get to the GF taking into account several of the factors you mention (appendectomies, injuries and the disruptions they caused, and Leaver). I don't mean I was satisfied we got to the GF, but it was a massive effort to get there. By contrast, Richmond were buoyed up by:
--- selection consistency and the high quality of team pressure they applied
--- Cotchin's non-penalty
--- Dusty's re-signing, his MVP and the Brownlow which added to team confidence.
Meanwhile the Crows were hit by injury and torn apart by the Leaver situation.

I don't think it's fair to compare this team to all the other failures of Crows teams of yesteryear.

This!
Trying to run a common thread through the last 20 years is a waste of time. Worst are the posts that claim after a loss "We always do X or Y or Z etc". The only thing we always do when we lose is score less. It was also tiresome to read posts which claimed that "After all we've been through (the Craig years, Sanderson, Walsh's & Bailey's passing, injuries and appendectomies at the end of 2017 etc etc), we deserve to win this Flag".
There's no deserving before the event, other than the right to compete in the GF.
It could be argued that NM "deserved" to win the 98 Flag. They had been the best team in the Minor Round. Going into the GF they'd won 11 in a row and had beaten us twice in the Minor Round. However on the day they kicked 6.15 to half-time and 7 points in the last quarter by which time we were unified and on a roll. Bad kicking for goal = they lost.
GF wins are earned on the day, not "deserved" before a single bounce.

 

[CrowBloke]

1) Chequebook footy. They get paid next week no matter the result.
2) There are no consequences. Bad loss? Drop the injured and carry on playing the structure.
3) There seems to be no fear at the club

With respect, I doubt it's that simple.
1) The players are on contracts independent of win-loss results. Someone can play a blinder and we still lose. That's just how it is. If they play badly they can be dropped or de-listed.
2) This is a good point. Our win against Sydney has shown that our depth can play, which means that all players should be on notice. If they don't perform there are players to replace them who can. As for "the structure", Pyke does not set up the same week after week. He admitted it was wrong to go in tall --- and slow --- against Collingwood and his structures against Sydney were enacted well, and worked. Looks like he's waking up to the fact that he needs a slightly tweaked game plan every week according to whom we play.
3) The rise of Doedee (Wow, what a gun he's proved to be!) and the good work done by Murphy, The Fog, Milera, Galluci and Poholke should be countering that lack of fear and motivating players to do their best. Apparently, MCrouch and Sloane are ready, replacing CEY (probably) and Hartigan (injured). It's going to be super-competitive when BCrouch, Gibson, Eddie and Smithers are fit again. Good problem to have.
Finally, Pyke rarely (if ever) drops a bloke after one bad game. Even so, he has more options now, eg I reckon Atkins was given notice and responded last week accordingly.

 

[kulak]

Essendon are a much better side than Collingwood.

Expect to see a 30+ point win today.

At what point does being consistently wrong cause you to be more cautious with your predictions?

 

[CrowBloke]

Expect to see a 30+ point win today

At what point does being consistently wrong cause you to be more cautious with your predictions?

In all (mischievous) fairness, Collingwood's 49-point win was 30+. Right result, wrong team (and how bad were the Crows in Round One to lose to the Dons?).
I have a 20% success rate, one (vs St. Kilda) from 5, in predicting Crows' results so far this year .