Thoughts on tomorrow games...
San Antonio 1st Half over New York & San Antonio -5 over New York - Spurs should be too good here, especially early and i don't think Boston the day after will affect them. Knicks lose Danilo which means they have to tweak their starting lineup and gives them even less off the bench. Knicks aren't fast starters, think the Spurs can continue their great form and their bench should easily account for the Knicks'. Pop knows the Spurs have to get better defensive and they've been doing a great job lately limiting teams to just 82 points in their last 4 games. I'm sure Pop wasn't happy with their performance against the Magic so he's enforced the defence. If the Spurs continue their defence they showed against the Thunder, they will cover easy. I'm thinking i'm steering away from the total because of the fact the Spurs' new found play. Knicks run and Amare has been a capable of dominating the Spurs averaging 32 in his last 3 but Duncan emphasised they have to control the pace of the game which may indicate a slower gamer. I would probably lean Unders here, depends how high the line gets but with the Spurs capable of scoring at will and Knicks normally play no defense, it may fly over.
Miami/Milwaukee Under 183.5 & Miami -8.5 over Milwaukee - Unders just seem too easy here, a line that started at 184.5, already dropping points indicates this. Miami found their defence against today and will carry that over against an offensively handicapped team in Milwaukee. Bucks can play defence themselves and continually produce Unders even when the mark is around 179. Without Jennings their is no consistent scoring and the Heat will smother them. Also the Bucks play Miami a couple of days after at home so it they may not be all over this game. I'm wary of the Heat struggling to cover at home, 5 - 12 ATS but when the Bucks get behind they don't have the offence to catch up. With Jennings out, their 3 losses have been by 26, 15 and 13. Don't see them keeping this too close. There may be another hearthbreaker either way though as the total doesn't leave a lot of wiggle room with the 10 points. Thinking a score of around 95 - 80.
Chicago 1st Quarter over Toronto, Chicago/Toronto Under 198.5 & Chicago -7.5 over Toronto - I'm really confused at this drop in line for Chicago, maybe they hadn't factored in Bargnani, not sure but i'm happy because i think the Bulls dominate here. Toronto may get their scorer back but players coming back from injury normally struggle in their first game back, especially shooters. I think the Bulls defence will strangle the struggling Raptors offense and the Bulls will let Boozer kill the Raptors as he did a few weeks ago. Bulls dominated early in that match up, were up 20+ at the half and their starters hardly played with Rose only scoring 6 points. Raptors didn't have Andrea but i don't think he'll be much of a factor early as he gets back into the swing of things. Plus he's going to have to get used to DeRozan as he's being playing very well lately, how do they work together? Slight worry i have with the Bulls covering is they seem to fall into slumps during games and teams can get back. Reason i kind of like the Unders is the Bulls should be able to control the Raptors scoring but fall into a small hole during the game scoring wise. Bulls keep teams to low scores at home and i don't think this will be a fast paced game as the Raptors will play into Rose's hands if they try to run. Also Raptors have a much more winnable game the day after against Cleveland.
Detroit +13 against LA Lakers & LA Lakers/Detroit Under 194 - Bookies must expect a bounce back here by the Lakers, not overly sure about that as Detroit actually have played badly of late cover 7 of their last 9. This is a big line just a team that is struggling, afraid to play it though as i just don't really trust Detroit. What i do trust is this game being a defensive struggle. Lakers have been criticised for lack of effort, reckon they come out and put on a good defensive performance. The Unders are 12 - 5 when the Lakers play a team with a losing record whilst the Unders are 11 - 5 when the Pistons play a winning team. I trust the Pistons will hit a the wall at some point like they always do and this one stays under the total.
San Antonio -5 over New York
Miami/Milwaukee Under 183.5
Chicago/Toronto Under 198.5
Chicago 1st Quarter over Toronto
Chicago -7.5 over Toronto
Detroit/LA Lakers Under 194