Prediction The New world Predictions-The Percy Johnson Cup

[Inveigh Slang]

Many reasons, not least of which is his company is about to get smashed because people will no longer be able to afford to build a house. When unemployment settles at about 15% (as has been predicted), no business is safe. We are headed for one hell of an economic hit.
I'm nowhere near old enough to remember the great depression but I clearly remember paying 21% interest on my housing loan when Keating was Treasurer.

You're much older than me. I was maybe 8 when that happened.

The difference is interest rates are at an all time low. It's relatively cheap to build a house these days. When we get through this then people will be able to move to build again.

 

[DeanS]

You're much older than me. I was maybe 8 when that happened.

The difference is interest rates are at an all time low. It's relatively cheap to build a house these days. When we get through this then people will be able to move to build again.

You’ve focused on the old dude rambling bit at the end. The major point I was making (or trying to make) was about the negative impact the rapidly growing unemployment rate will have on the economy.

 

[wild side]

No doubt Dean, and that could lead to huge social dislocation etc
Interest rates are low, but I wouldn't think house prices are cheap.
They can get a lot cheaper, particularly if unemployment gets to 15%
Our only hope is the resource sector, if they can continue we will be somewhat insured from complete breakdown imo

 

[yoong]

I'm going to have a go at this. I'll get to footy at the end, i promise.

Now till end of 2020
Trump will continue to mess things up in US and eventually try to call upon some state of emergency rule to avoid election. The people will no longer tolerate and impeach him and he'll be replaced by a more capable, but authoritarian leader. This will happen in several other countries as well.

In the meantime, entrepreneurs/inventors will take matters into their own hands. A vaccine will be created, or more likely, invent some affordable home kit (with a small mobile ventilator and other treatment equipment) where people can self treat mild to sever (but non-critical) cases when they contracted the coronavirus, instead of going to the overwhelmed hospitals. Things will start looking better towards Christmas.

Covid is the latest of the string of "plague" that happened in the last 20 years (SARS, MERS, Ebola, H1N1..). Countries will finally have enough, get together and go after the source countries (china, mexico) and force them to improve their practices. This will be like the nuclear reduction where there will be inspectors and sanctions on offending countries.

Post-Covid
During the Covid period, companies will forced to figure how to run their functions from where their staff work from home or a remote location. Those that couldn't will not survive.Post Covid, the economy will bounce back quickly, but more for technology companies that support work from home and automated delivery. This will also include entertainment and sports. People will still enjoy sports but will be predominantly watching from their online device from home instead of going to stadiums (more on AFL later).

Big companies will try to ask their governments for handout to survive. Those too big to fail ones will be bailed out. Governments will be pissed and big companies will afterwards be forced to maintain a reserve that is managed by the government. No more giving of top executives huge bonuses in good times but not being able to last out a few months during the bad. Sporting organisations that is non-essential, like the AFL, will not be given support (more later).

AFL
Vic government will not give support to AFL with their hands full. AFL will no longer be able to prop up the smaller teams and cut 3-4 Victorian teams. Gold Coast will not survive as well. Players from these teams will be redistributed to other teams with a permanently expanded list size. To compensate for the smaller number of teams for the TV rights, AFL will increase to 28 rounds, where each team play each other twice.

Game time will continue to be shorten at 16 minutes per quarter. This, and the expanded list, will help teams to cope when they have to play 2 or even 3 games a week. This will be in smaller crowds as many people are still worried about large gathering of people and most will watch on devices at home. This means games can be played in a weekday, since TV rights/online viewing will be the most important income for the AFL.

There will be an introduction of the concept of tours to reduce the amount of traveling. A Vic team will fly into WA and stay for the week to play Eagles and Dockers. They'll then move to SA and play Crows and Port for another week, before flying back to Melbourne. Similarly, interstate teams will fly into Melbourne and play all the teams there for 2-4 weeks before flying back.

Also, with the reduction in crowds, it's no longer practical to always host the grand finals in MCG. The venue will be determined by the top ranked team playing in the grand finals.

 

[Monument Hills]

Can people fu** off with their facebook herd immunity nonsense. No one is doing herd immunity because its as ******ed as hoarding toilet paper.

I have a PhD in this stuff from the Dept of Medicine at UWA. My PhD supervisor is the current Chief Scientist of Western Australia. I know what I am talking about. If you would rather get the garbled mixed messaging 2nd hand soundbites through the media who have no knowledge in this field, and are still more interested in clicks than anything else, go for your life and feel free to put me on ignore. That is your right. But saying herd immunity is nonesense is about as uninformed as saying gravity has been debunked. It's how we have been using our vaccines to protect our unvaccinated babies (yet) and others who can't/won't take vaccines against many nasty diseases every year for the whole of your life. Please stop confusing people with your lack of knowledge. It isn't helpful.

 

[Van_Dyke]

- Give up on GC
- Salary cap / footy spending cut back 20%
- Shorter games
- Freo win a flag

Time to bring back Weller?

 

[Cesoir]

I am conflicted - I read on Facebook that herd immunity is crap, but I also read on Facebook that herd immunity is our best chance. What am I going to do?

Disclaimer: I don't really have Facebook, or Twitter, or Instagram - the only exposure i get to this crap is in BF

 

[raffrox]

I am conflicted - I read on Facebook that herd immunity is crap, but I also read on Facebook that herd immunity is our best chance. What am I going to do?

Disclaimer: I don't really have Facebook, or Twitter, or Instagram - the only exposure i get to this crap is in BF

Yeah, this. not so much the social media bit but working out which way is up with any of this stuff is a bit tough.

 

[westy1]

No doubt Dean, and that could lead to huge social dislocation etc
Interest rates are low, but I wouldn't think house prices are cheap.
They can get a lot cheaper, particularly if unemployment gets to 15%
Our only hope is the resource sector, if they can continue we will be somewhat insured from complete breakdown imo

i started this thread for footy predictions but ill buy in here

At the moment the government is printing money
generally quantitative easing results in skyrocketing inflation

low wage growth therefore low inflation had been one of the economic bugbears prior to the virus regardless of how low interest rates got

The Rupert Murdochs of the world had managed to convince the gullible public that unions were the enemy, which resulted in minimal to nonexistent disposable income for the large part of the workforce,

The tools in the toolbox to stimulate growth weren't working

What was needed was stimulus of some sort

Given that the wealthy cretins of the world were more intent on hoarding the wealth rather than spreading it around it wasnt looking good

Also Given the fact the government was more intent on collecting more tax than they were spending there was nothing to see there either

So here we are now

The government is throwing money away, but I can't really see the inflation rate going up much, I could be wrong

The Black plague ushered out the end of the feudal system, I'm sort of hoping this sees an end to rampant capitalism and globalization and a shift to a circular economy

So back to talking about what really matters, the footy....

* there is no footy

 

[FreoRicci]

Australians SHOULD be at option 1- Self Isolation. Quarantine as much as possible. This isn’t a two week fix- 2-6 months minimum. That should be the accepted norm. Forget about life little trivial non essential activities- getting a 5 dollar coffee, or going to get a 150 dollar hair cut, buying that 15 dollar cocktail at the casino. This is more then life.

However, Australians are, unintentionally, at option 3. Trying to pretend this isn’t occurring so Herd Inmunity is possible. This is the worst option there is.
ScoMo won’t go on lockdown, and badly misinterpreting his rules and confusing Australians.
Unless the government suddenly, not holding my breath, enforce strict policies- the country is heading for a very difficult time in the short term.

Therefore, employment will at worst rise to 30%, and economy will still fall, whether the policies/rules are lenient or strict. The period of hardship though will be longer.

Envisage that no AFL will occur in 2020. That’s impossible at this point.
All clubs will be bailed out. But Freo itself will be broke and on the brink.

West coast, Richmond and Collingwood will the be stronger clubs. Watch them regularly be in finals, at the biggest day of AFL for 3-5 years. Clubs like Bulldogs, St Kilda, North will be at breaking point.

At worst, with the way USA are going as well, infections will reach 10+ million and USA will be the top of the list with both infections and deaths.

 

[Johnny Dalmas]

...

AFL
Vic government will not give support to AFL with their hands full. AFL will no longer be able to prop up the smaller teams and cut 3-4 Victorian teams. Gold Coast will not survive as well. Players from these teams will be redistributed to other teams with a permanently expanded list size. To compensate for the smaller number of teams for the TV rights, AFL will increase to 28 rounds, where each team play each other twice.

Game time will continue to be shorten at 16 minutes per quarter. This, and the expanded list, will help teams to cope when they have to play 2 or even 3 games a week. This will be in smaller crowds as many people are still worried about large gathering of people and most will watch on devices at home. This means games can be played in a weekday, since TV rights/online viewing will be the most important income for the AFL.

There will be an introduction of the concept of tours to reduce the amount of traveling. A Vic team will fly into WA and stay for the week to play Eagles and Dockers. They'll then move to SA and play Crows and Port for another week, before flying back to Melbourne. Similarly, interstate teams will fly into Melbourne and play all the teams there for 2-4 weeks before flying back.

Also, with the reduction in crowds, it's no longer practical to always host the grand finals in MCG. The venue will be determined by the top ranked team playing in the grand finals.

I like a lot of your AFL predictions but:
- the GF will stay at the MCG and become an even bigger marque event than it is now. When a lot of games are mid-week played in front of 10-15k and only making economic sense as a TV episode, the bigger games will become even more special

- each AFL Club's list will actually become smaller -- closer to 30 players than 45. At first glance that seems odd, because the clubs are playing games more frequently so so should need more players not less but ...

.... the State Leagues collectively fail with only a very few "Subiaco"-like clubs able to survive. Although the AFL is short of cash as well, some brave/ambitous soul at AFL house decides to help bail out _some_ of the state league clubs -- but only if the saved clubs become feeder clubs to the AFL. Consequently the State Leagues consolidate into a professional minor league like in American baseball.

All the football decisions made at these new State League clubs are actually made and financed by the relevant parent AFL club. We end up with, say, the Falcons being a feeder club for, say, Richmond and East Freo being a part of the "Carlton Club Network" or whatever, etc

In this new "farm system" world, the surviving State League clubs are actually fully professional with lists of 30-ish players all getting $50k a year to play. Good enough money to compete with a full-time minimum wage job, but nowhere near the amount of money they would get in the "big show" on an AFL list.

With players in these minor league clubs actually being employees of their parent AFL club but on close-to-minimum wage, the lists of the AFL clubs can be cut back to the core. For instance, you no longer need 3 or 4 ruckmen on your main AFL list. Just go with one ruckman having the expensive AFL contract and when that one ruck blows up, call up one of your minimum wage ruckmen from one of your minor league teams to get his 15 minutes of the rich life.

The AFL is happy talking up that there are now more professional football opportunities than ever. But a small number of AFL level players are earning ever bigger contracts and there is a much larger group of minimum wage state league players living in motels and eating Hungry Jacks while they wait for their mid-season call-up.

 

[Ysaye]

Concentrating solely on the football future, and specifically WA football, the key player here is surely the WAFC? And one of the big first plays there would be what happens to the WAFL; one thing that could happen is it could force the loss of its semi-professional status entirely (ie. they wouldn't be able to pay players and the coaches) and/or the WAFC may need to give up some of it's assets (that sit out in the hands of the two AFL clubs), with the latter being less likely as they (the AFL clubs) are and will be the greater revenue generators. As Johnny eluded to, if a semi-professional state league survives, then you can see some WAFL clubs not surviving (West Perth, East Freo, Perth etc.).

There is then (subsequent to the above) an interesting question of what happens with respect to the Freo and West Coast "reserves" (In either Freo's current arrangement or West Coasts)? Does this reinvigorate a debate about a national reserves competition? Or maybe a reserves of the remaining SANFL / WAFL clubs?

You could also potentially see them trying to consolidate and reduce administration; what if one of the solutions is to allocate a set of WAFL clubs to one AFL club and the rest to the other? Or maybe they tier it (so some of the WAFL clubs become reserve clubs, stacked as part of their AFL club).

Anyway - all very unknown speculation.....

At a national level, if I was them, I would probably get on the front foot and start some preliminary talks (with both the Bulldogs and the AFL commission) about "merging" Fremantle with the Western Bulldogs (with the AFL making a significant contribution to this due to "saving" of a victorian club and reduction in the number of players as Johnny eluded to) to form the Fremantle Bulldogs. The opportunity is there to get a leapfrog in terms of size and try and elevate into the top 5 or so in terms of size and capability to recruit new members across the country. I can sense having an established arm and supporter base in Melbourne could help both on field and off it. Maybe that team would wear purple and red like the girls do in the same form as the Western Bulldogs already have.

But yeah, who knows?

 

[Taylor]

A possible future..

The AFL wraps up St Kilda, Gold Coast and the Western Bulldogs. The two Melbourne clubs are merged into the Western Saints, the WAFC is leaned on to pay a $10,000,000 license fee from West Coast's bank account and a third WA team will kick off in Joondalup called the Falcons, but they will be the Gold Coast Suns under a new name.

 

[sumavich]

I think freo are going to be asking for
Money from members. They sent an email saying 73% of their revenue comes from game days. I think they are ****ed s/term

 

[BigRang]

I think freo are going to be asking for
Money from members. They sent an email saying 73% of their revenue comes from game days. I think they are f’ed s/term

I would think that almost all clubs main form of revenue would be game days/sponsorships. Even the Eagles have had a good old cleanout.
All clubs bar the richest will be in very similar boats here.
I actually though Freo was quite financial?

 

[Taylor]

Well it looks like the AFL are mortgaging their Marvel Stadium for five hundred million dollars to keep the league afloat.

 

[Cesoir]

I would think that almost all clubs main form of revenue would be game days/sponsorships. Even the Eagles have had a good old cleanout.
All clubs bar the richest will be in very similar boats here.
I actually though Freo was quite financial?

I think the ones that will feel it most are those relying on pokie revenue.

 

[Purple_Turtle]

I don't think we're in a post virus world yet. It's gonna take a 18+months or so for the vaccines and meds to get tested, made, and distributed on a mass scale. I wouldn't mind returning to a more simple world where we give up many of our modern conveniences, but I know I'm the exception. I don't live in a huge metro area (Chicago is about an hour away), so it would be easier for me to adjust.

Lucky you all live in AUS. Our artificially orange president is considering lifting all stay-at-home bans to "save" the economy. The TX Lt. Governor just went on Fox News and said he and other old people should think about how bad things will be if the economy fails and should therefore risk their lives to live like normal. "No one asked me if I would be willing to take a chance on my survival in exchange for keeping the America that everyone knows and loves for your children and grandchildren. And if that's the exchange, then I'm all in." Seriously, an elected official actually said this... When I watch the interview I feel like I'm in a dystopian sci fi novel. Watch this American's unhealthy patriotism on display here:

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-t...die-172ca951-891c-44e7-a9ec-77c486e0c5c3.html

The twitter reactions to this guy's interview are priceless. #DieForTheDow

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/dan-patrick-sacrifice-grandparents_n_5e796dd8c5b6f5b7c549df25


View attachment 846205

It's worth pointing out that saving the economy is the livelihoods of all Americans (rich and poor), which includes whether they can continue to pay rent and groceries, as well as the significant capital small business owners have invested into their cafes and other businesses. "Keep everything open" is a misguided way of going about things (partially because of the risk to human life and partially because the economy will go to s**t regardless) and I expect someone to talk sense into Trump, but trying to keep the economy somewhat functional is substantially more than choosing between keeping granny alive and Bezo's new boat.

 

[sansian]

+1 for use of "Lurgy"

ooooooooohhhhhhh eck a booooooooo

 

[Nothing]

Well it looks like the AFL are mortgaging their Marvel Stadium for five hundred million dollars to keep the league afloat.

We were until 2019.

 

[tonygeeks]

Any west coast eagles fan who wants to return to the Fremantle family and support the mighty sharks will have to wear a dunce cap to the games and give up their seat a freo dockers member should the need arise

An east Freo crowd littered with dunce caps sounds about right to me

 

[Daddoo]

I expect someone to talk sense into Trump, but trying to keep the economy somewhat functional is substantially more than choosing between keeping granny alive and Bezo's new boat.

Exactly, which is why it makes the Lt. Gov. appear more than just callous, non-empathetic, and out of touch with reality. He thinks that by simply relaxing the stay-at-home order and risking our lives, the economy is going to magically bounce back and the America "we know and love" will be saved. Let's just say the orange boy mandates all stay-at-home orders cancelled (which would go against fundemental conservative values of local control, but who's paying attention?). Do you think people are actually going to go out and start flying again, shopping, and going to restaurants? Give me a break.

The economy is going to take a massive hit, but with ingenuity and strong leadership, it will rebound in time. We did during the Great Depression, which was much worse in terms of financial difficulties for the typical American. We haven't hit that yet.

 

[westy1]

Concentrating solely on the football future, and specifically WA football, the key player here is surely the WAFC? And one of the big first plays there would be what happens to the WAFL; one thing that could happen is it could force the loss of its semi-professional status entirely (ie. they wouldn't be able to pay players and the coaches) and/or the WAFC may need to give up some of it's assets (that sit out in the hands of the two AFL clubs), with the latter being less likely as they (the AFL clubs) are and will be the greater revenue generators. As Johnny eluded to, if a semi-professional state league survives, then you can see some WAFL clubs not surviving (West Perth, East Freo, Perth etc.).

There is then (subsequent to the above) an interesting question of what happens with respect to the Freo and West Coast "reserves" (In either Freo's current arrangement or West Coasts)? Does this reinvigorate a debate about a national reserves competition? Or maybe a reserves of the remaining SANFL / WAFL clubs?

You could also potentially see them trying to consolidate and reduce administration; what if one of the solutions is to allocate a set of WAFL clubs to one AFL club and the rest to the other? Or maybe they tier it (so some of the WAFL clubs become reserve clubs, stacked as part of their AFL club).

Anyway - all very unknown speculation.....

At a national level, if I was them, I would probably get on the front foot and start some preliminary talks (with both the Bulldogs and the AFL commission) about "merging" Fremantle with the Western Bulldogs (with the AFL making a significant contribution to this due to "saving" of a victorian club and reduction in the number of players as Johnny eluded to) to form the Fremantle Bulldogs. The opportunity is there to get a leapfrog in terms of size and try and elevate into the top 5 or so in terms of size and capability to recruit new members across the country. I can sense having an established arm and supporter base in Melbourne could help both on field and off it. Maybe that team would wear purple and red like the girls do in the same form as the Western Bulldogs already have.

But yeah, who knows?

“Fremantle Bulldogs “
I saw what you did there,
There will be no “Fremantle Bulldogs “
I could live with “ Fremantle Sharks “ though

 

[mightymouse75]

It's the end of the world as we know it for sports and the entertainment industry.
Football clubs will be replaced by hospitals and university's at the national draft sending young doctors & scientists across the country with lucrative contracts.
Go fremantle hospital

 

[Bring back Drum]

You have to wonder what is going happen with existing contracts & player payments, after this there is no way those contracts are sustainable. They will either reduce list numbers with larger supplementary players on far less or an agreement that all players contracts are discounted by x% for clubs to survive.

Winning will not be important for some clubs as they just attempt to survive in the first few years & as some have said WC, Richmond & Collingwood are going to dominate. *!!