Prediction The Next Batch operation Future

[CatRiot]

How the hell do you get 5-6 picks inside top 25? You would trade out pretty much every tradable player. Then being the draft 50% of those kids won't become players and you'll have traded our leadership group in for maybe 3 good kids? Carlton has more than 3 good kids and it hasn't been working out for them.

Well a first rounder, and our second rounder could be in the Top 30. Then two picks for Kelly under 25 is likely. That gives you 4 under 30 realistically. Then a pick upgrade with some trades somewhere, not out of the question, maybe Top 30 is what I meant.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Well a first rounder, and our second rounder could be in the Top 30. Then two picks for Kelly under 25 is likely. That gives you 4 under 30 realistically. Then a pick upgrade with some trades somewhere, not out of the question, maybe Top 30 is what I meant.

Sorry misread your post, thought you meant 5-6 in addition to what we already had.

Realistically though with academy and F/S bidding a pick under 25 would need to start at say pick 22-23, and pick 23 goes to the side that finishes 13th. We'd need to be worse than every side bar the bottom 4. It could happen but i would say unlikely. I would also think the two picks in top 25 for Kelly was a once off kind of deal given west coast won't have 2 late 20s picks this year barring some serious trading.

Even if we went bottom 4, getting 5-6 picks in the first 25 would be very difficult. Gold Coast lost half their viable playing list and they got I think 4 picks in the first 25. We would have to out shine the suns in our efforts to burn our future.

 

[juzcat]

So the club played a sore or injured player for 15 games and one who isn't fit enough for another 6. It's a circus down at that club.

Seriously pessimistic. Am almost more optimistic based on JLT2..very different game plan..lots of FWD50 turnovers completly changes the way we can defend and get repeat entries. 2017 and 2017 we for repeat entries due to strong sagging defence. 2018 unable to score enough because we had to many shallow entries and just not enough of them, slot due to all our smalls being innured. This year, recruited to fill holes and excess of pressure players, plus class with Gazza. We have turned around based on what was missing.
I like this circus

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[Jhye Clark 13]

Seriously pessimistic. Am almost more optimistic based on JLT2..very different game plan..lots of FWD50 turnovers completly changes the way we can defend and get repeat entries. 2017 and 2017 we for repeat entries due to strong sagging defence. 2018 unable to score enough because we had to many shallow entries and just not enough of them, slot due to all our smalls being innured. This year, recruited to fill holes and excess of pressure players, plus class with Gazza. We have turned around based on what was missing.
I like this circus

Sent from my VKY-L29 using Tapatalk

They weren't my words.

 

[Ray Donovan]

I choose not to believe Fogarty would have played his entire under 18's and the first 15 games of his AFL career with a ****** groin so I'll end this conversation content that his kicking technique and lack of penetration will hinder his ability to make it at AFL level

At underage level he was an extremely good ball winner and incredible tackler and pressure player. That's why he played so many games year one.

Averaged 9.7 tackles a game & 25 disposals at junior level.

Versatile Highly Skilled and tough was his draft profile.

For an 18 year old at 180cm (75kg) to come in and play that many games for geelong in year one shows the amount of talent he has.

He is a really good kick his technique is solid and the way he moves around the field when he gets more strength he will be able to showcase it more will play lots of senior footy at geelong.

 

[Ray Donovan]

Sorry misread your post, thought you meant 5-6 in addition to what we already had.

Realistically though with academy and F/S bidding a pick under 25 would need to start at say pick 22-23, and pick 23 goes to the side that finishes 13th. We'd need to be worse than every side bar the bottom 4. It could happen but i would say unlikely. I would also think the two picks in top 25 for Kelly was a once off kind of deal given west coast won't have 2 late 20s picks this year barring some serious trading.

Even if we went bottom 4, getting 5-6 picks in the first 25 would be very difficult. Gold Coast lost half their viable playing list and they got I think 4 picks in the first 25. We would have to out shine the suns in our efforts to burn our future.

You would need to trade players like mitch Duncan and Kelly in the same year to get those kind of picks plus be down the bottom.

Generally you spread it out of multiple drafts two first rounders one year then one the next. Early picks also come with inflated salaries I suspect that is also why geelong uses a very mature age rout in picking up Stewart, menegola types in the later rounds. Cheap low cost, high upside, easily to cut in 2 years if it doesn't pan out.

Kids take time and you need to be willing to invest heavily as a club when you go down that rout. Which the the last 5 years had not been no.1 priority.

 

[Turbocat]

You would need to trade players like mitch Duncan and Kelly in the same year to get those kind of picks plus be down the bottom.

Generally you spread it out of multiple drafts two first rounders one year then one the next. Early picks also come with inflated salaries I suspect that is also why geelong uses a very mature age rout in picking up Stewart, menegola types in the later rounds. Cheap low cost, high upside, easily to cut in 2 years if it doesn't pan out.

Kids take time and you need to be willing to invest heavily as a club when you go down that rout. Which the the last 5 years had not been no.1 priority.

Agree with bold.

5-6 in one draft..? I agree very tough. I think 5-6 picks under 25 would almost be impossible without a convergence of circumstance.. a couple of FA's that we dont match and losing a player like Kelly and having a really bad year. Lets say we lost Kelly this year , someone offered FA Bews a fortune this year and we had a bad year ..we may get 4-5 picks in the top30

I have long maintained the need for a couple of single figure type kids but thats difficult to orchastrate. If you go down the youth rebuild path ..one needs at worst some R1 picks to be added to the others accumulated and have a win with 2-3 a year till we have cascade of new talent ... Clark looks good but if Oscar B can also etc. Ideally those kids are good enough to demand selection from early on ..but then can hold their spot as fresh talent comes in.

What we have tended to not do recently is really go OTT on raw young talent .. we blend it .. and it means we add a Clark and an Atkins and a Dahl. In theory .. these guys should give us 5 years min. I think you get quicker bang for you buck this way ..but I suspect you don't get the 10-15 years players that we got just going with the 18 yo's. "when it works" and perhaps less blackholes when you get little from a year.

There are questions I guess on the purity of the talent this way.. but one has a look at our wins with matures in recent years .. its hard to knock the recruitment from within being a portion of our draft stocks. Then a Rohan and Dahl this year added for nearly no draft pain ..apart from a list position ..
Find a kid or two and we really do have a player turnover.

I guess in regards to Operation Future.. we look at near future rather than long term future , because the club is unwilling to choose to gamble that giving 5 years of questionable results are worth it to "attempt" develop a group of kids. Plenty have tried to go that way ..and most that attempt it do not have a flag at the end of it.

 

[Max Milburn]

Agree with bold.

5-6 in one draft..? I agree very tough. I think 5-6 picks under 25 would almost be impossible without a convergence of circumstance.. a couple of FA's that we dont match and losing a player like Kelly and having a really bad year. Lets say we lost Kelly this year , someone offered FA Bews a fortune this year and we had a bad year ..we may get 4-5 picks in the top30

I have long maintained the need for a couple of single figure type kids but thats difficult to orchastrate. If you go down the youth rebuild path ..one needs at worst some R1 picks to be added to the others accumulated and have a win with 2-3 a year till we have cascade of new talent ... Clark looks good but if Oscar B can also etc. Ideally those kids are good enough to demand selection from early on ..but then can hold their spot as fresh talent comes in.

What we have tended to not do recently is really go OTT on raw young talent .. we blend it .. and it means we add a Clark and an Atkins and a Dahl. In theory .. these guys should give us 5 years min. I think you get quicker bang for you buck this way ..but I suspect you don't get the 10-15 years players that we got just going with the 18 yo's. "when it works" and perhaps less blackholes when you get little from a year.

There are questions I guess on the purity of the talent this way.. but one has a look at our wins with matures in recent years .. its hard to knock the recruitment from within being a portion of our draft stocks. Then a Rohan and Dahl this year added for nearly no draft pain ..apart from a list position ..
Find a kid or two and we really do have a player turnover.

I guess in regards to Operation Future.. we look at near future rather than long term future , 's meant to be long because the club is unwilling to choose to gamble that giving 5 years of questionable results are worth it to "attempt" develop a group of kids. Plenty have tried to go that way ..and most that attempt it do not have a flag at the end of it.

Great post TC.
Geelong in particular is almost programmed to follow this route.
It's a badge of honour the club wears, not having slipped to the depths for so long.
If nothing else it gives (some) supporters a sense of pride.
It's meant to be a long time between drinks for clubs, and Cats/Hawks/Lions/Swans/WC in recent years have guzzled while others are dying of thirst.
We're starting to feel thirsty now, but imagine how some others clubs are feeling.
I wonder. If we don't crack it in the next couple of seasons, where to next?

 

[Landgraft]

Agree with bold.

5-6 in one draft..? I agree very tough. I think 5-6 picks under 25 would almost be impossible without a convergence of circumstance.. a couple of FA's that we dont match and losing a player like Kelly and having a really bad year. Lets say we lost Kelly this year , someone offered FA Bews a fortune this year and we had a bad year ..we may get 4-5 picks in the top30

I have long maintained the need for a couple of single figure type kids but thats difficult to orchastrate. If you go down the youth rebuild path ..one needs at worst some R1 picks to be added to the others accumulated and have a win with 2-3 a year till we have cascade of new talent ... Clark looks good but if Oscar B can also etc. Ideally those kids are good enough to demand selection from early on ..but then can hold their spot as fresh talent comes in.

What we have tended to not do recently is really go OTT on raw young talent .. we blend it .. and it means we add a Clark and an Atkins and a Dahl. In theory .. these guys should give us 5 years min. I think you get quicker bang for you buck this way ..but I suspect you don't get the 10-15 years players that we got just going with the 18 yo's. "when it works" and perhaps less blackholes when you get little from a year.

There are questions I guess on the purity of the talent this way.. but one has a look at our wins with matures in recent years .. its hard to knock the recruitment from within being a portion of our draft stocks. Then a Rohan and Dahl this year added for nearly no draft pain ..apart from a list position ..
Find a kid or two and we really do have a player turnover.

I guess in regards to Operation Future.. we look at near future rather than long term future , because the club is unwilling to choose to gamble that giving 5 years of questionable results are worth it to "attempt" develop a group of kids. Plenty have tried to go that way ..and most that attempt it do not have a flag at the end of it.

If you wanted to stack one draft then you could do that with some future pick trades - trade futures in a year ahead, then in the year of trade your own futures out. Flip even just one good player and maybe a downgrade on the R1 and I think 5 in the top 30 wouldn't be grossly unrealistic.

The bigger question is whether there'd be merit to that as a list strategy. Feels a bit like being an expansion club but not being offered the glut of truly early picks.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

If you wanted to stack one draft then you could do that with some future pick trades - trade futures in a year ahead, then in the year of trade your own futures out. Flip even just one good player and maybe a downgrade on the R1 and I think 5 in the top 30 wouldn't be grossly unrealistic.

The bigger question is whether there'd be merit to that as a list strategy. Feels a bit like being an expansion club but not being offered the glut of truly early picks.

I agree with that. Clinging to such a predefined strategy means putting rules in place you're bound by regardless of whether it seems like a good deal.

If you have that many early picks is because something has gone horribly wrong

 

[Landgraft]

I agree with that. Clinging to such a predefined strategy means putting rules in place you're bound by regardless of whether it seems like a good deal.

If you have that many early picks is because something has gone horribly wrong

Maybe if the stars aligned then it would be something worth pursuing, I'm not sure. But creative trading is always something I find at least interesting, if not necessarily relevant.

 

[Ray Donovan]

HBF imo... and he will do it with great effect. He could be as good as Hodge, in that he can read the play well and set play up the ground, like a quarter back type of player in the AFL. I'm expecting big from him, and I'm most bullish on him than all the under 22 year old's on our list. He might get into his groove in 2nd or 3rd year due to this glandular fever, but it won't be a long-term issue. We just might not reap the benefits in season 1 and it was probably the biggest reason he slipped to us. I would've had him definitely top 12, but even a top 10 pick. Best WA player by a long mile.

In JLT one of the biggest surprises for me was the strength of clarks overhead marking.

Coming in against AFL players usually it can take a while considering the size and strength of a player who has been in the system multiple years compared to an 18 year old.

He had really strong hands and listen marking and positioning is a skill you can improve on and he will lots of technique involved.

It's very much a natural talent though some guys have it some don't. Similar to players who can change direction at full pace. He looks above average in the marking department for me which means his ceiling could be elite for his size

I also think it means he could very well play some football forward in the future

 

[Turbocat]

In JLT one of the biggest surprises for me was the strength of clarks overhead marking.

Coming in against AFL players usually it can take a while considering the size and strength of a player who has been in the system multiple years compared to an 18 year old.

He had really strong hands and listen marking and positioning is a skill you can improve on and he will lots of technique involved.

It's very much a natural talent though some guys have it some don't. Similar to players who can change direction at full pace. He looks above average in the marking department for me which means his ceiling could be elite for his size

I also think it means he could very well play some football forward in the future

Perhaps ... there is difference taking marks when the otehr players are trying to take marks ... forwards take marks when def just to destroy and negate.

I agree he looks better than I thought he would be... I cant remember the marking as being a part of his package. Adding the marking makes him right into they type of player Kenny Hinkley was etc..

 

[Turbocat]

If you wanted to stack one draft then you could do that with some future pick trades - trade futures in a year ahead, then in the year of trade your own futures out. Flip even just one good player and maybe a downgrade on the R1 and I think 5 in the top 30 wouldn't be grossly unrealistic.

The bigger question is whether there'd be merit to that as a list strategy. Feels a bit like being an expansion club but not being offered the glut of truly early picks.

Yes you could trade futures..but futures really is gambling .. and there is always a trade exchange rate.. If for instance we say that we are really happy with our lot this year , perhaps dont rate this draft as much as next ..im sure we could persuade someone to look at trading their future R1 for our current R1 ... depending our current finisdhing position and our projected finishing position.. not always that easy to project. One would estimate Melb will be up and around the top group for the next few years ... would they consider trading in our R1 this year for theirs next year.. ? Yeah they may consider that

It would be a lot easier if a club could push trade. Some clubs have a heap of kids and would give picks for players... but more often than the players will not move.

The expansion clubs.. surely they have at least dinted the whole concept of loading up at draft to succeed. No club could land as many kids as they did...and yet. their success is far from certain.

 

[Landgraft]

Yes you could trade futures..but futures really is gambling .. and there is always a trade exchange rate.. If for instance we say that we are really happy with our lot this year , perhaps dont rate this draft as much as next ..im sure we could persuade someone to look at trading their future R1 for our current R1 ... depending our current finisdhing position and our projected finishing position.. not always that easy to project. One would estimate Melb will be up and around the top group for the next few years ... would they consider trading in our R1 this year for theirs next year.. ? Yeah they may consider that

It would be a lot easier if a club could push trade. Some clubs have a heap of kids and would give picks for players... but more often than the players will not move.

The expansion clubs.. surely they have at least dinted the whole concept of loading up at draft to succeed. No club could land as many kids as they did...and yet. their success is far from certain.

The only important thing to remember is that there is no one true path. I would say GWS' list build was basically a success, even if the team itself does not end up being one. Certainly they had a strong enough team with plenty of assets.

If you go draft heavy then it can work, it's just not a magic bullet. But nothing is.

 

[Ray Donovan]

Perhaps ... there is difference taking marks when the otehr players are trying to take marks ... forwards take marks when def just to destroy and negate.

I agree he looks better than I thought he would be... I cant remember the marking as being a part of his package. Adding the marking makes him right into they type of player Kenny Hinkley was etc..

I could be overplaying it as well, just by the eye test they looked like clean hands and I was quite surprised . That's what you get with young players though flashes of what they could become. I did see his intercept marking was a draft profile note but sometimes it just does not translate to senior level. Cannot wait for him to debut in round 1 could be 80,000 plus at the MCG.

There is an opinion out there he isn't ready probably right but I'm an advocate of playing him straight away. Learn on the job if he is what they thought at the draft he will prosper at afl level especially playing behind the ball. You can get help it's harder to isolate and he spent time on fantasia in the jlt I thought he was alright.

Atkins and constable as well I would play all 3 although 2 seems more likely.

 

[Turbocat]

I could be overplaying it as well, just by the eye test they looked like clean hands and I was quite surprised . That's what you get with young players though flashes of what they could become. I did see his intercept marking was a draft profile note but sometimes it just does not translate to senior level. Cannot wait for him to debut in round 1 could be 80,000 plus at the MCG.

There is an opinion out there he isn't ready probably right but I'm an advocate of playing him straight away. Learn on the job if he is what they thought at the draft he will prosper at afl level especially playing behind the ball. You can get help it's harder to isolate and he spent time on fantasia in the jlt I thought he was alright.

Atkins and constable as well I would play all 3 although 2 seems more likely.

Im not against playing him..just lets not pump the jam too much ..not yet. No good to put too higher expectation. He sounds like he has a healthy degree of confidence.. great...it will help him when the pick hammer knocks a few of the edges off him..

 

[Turbocat]

The only important thing to remember is that there is no one true path. I would say GWS' list build was basically a success, even if the team itself does not end up being one. Certainly they had a strong enough team with plenty of assets.

If you go draft heavy then it can work, it's just not a magic bullet. But nothing is.

Agree with this ... ones chance of having success going draft heavy is different for side that is at the bottom of the ladder. For a side middle of the road.. its at bit more difficult to determine the correct path.

 

[Drunkcat]

I look at Fogarty and think if Dahlhaus can make it so can Fogarty because he has a big heart and a hard nut..if you got that you have a shot at making it

 

[Ray Donovan]

Im not against playing him..just lets not pump the jam too much ..not yet. No good to put too higher expectation. He sounds like he has a healthy degree of confidence.. great...it will help him when the pick hammer knocks a few of the edges off him..

No it's big footy I'm dropping the hammer he should be in the best 22 and be pushed through exactly like Henry, Parfitt I have expectations he should play a lot of AFL footy. True he won't be at the same level as some or ready but the upside is too great to pass up. Thats what gets lost with all these mature players coming in the stop gap effect. Yes dalhaus and Rohan are better than the kids but that's a position that a fogarty or a parfitt has to wait for and then they get thrown in later on and you need to go through the evaluation process again.

 

[CatRiot]

I look at Fogarty and think if Dahlhaus can make it so can Fogarty because he has a big heart and a hard nut..if you got that you have a shot at making it

Fogarty will make it, I have no concerns on that one.

 

[Turbocat]

No it's big footy I'm dropping the hammer he should be in the best 22 and be pushed through exactly like Henry, Parfitt I have expectations he should play a lot of AFL footy. True he won't be at the same level as some or ready but the upside is too great to pass up. Thats what gets lost with all these mature players coming in the stop gap effect. Yes dalhaus and Rohan are better than the kids but that's a position that a fogarty or a parfitt has to wait for and then they get thrown in later on and you need to go through the evaluation process again.

We will see how much he plays in 2019 ..but there is some serious pump going in here and not just on bigfooty .. I think I heard Danger going on about this kid on radio... so who can blame you for ....

 

[Ray Donovan]

We will see how much he plays in 2019 ..but there is some serious pump going in here and not just on bigfooty .. I think I heard Danger going on about this kid on radio... so who can blame you for ....

 

[Turbocat]

Thats a lot Cruise... has he ever done a film where dies ?


Back to the Operation Future ... I wonder if OB can become another ray of sunshine this year... it would seem we would have at least 5 players that could debut this year.

The whole reason for my demand for higher end talent from kids (single figure picks) is not that we are not getting an debutants that then go on and embed themselves as our best players. Our best players still seem to be closer to 30 than 20. Can Parfitt become that player... in a way if we keeping having debutants does that mean we are not really getting any long term results from the kids we have drafted?

Clarke looks the good but we have only seen such a small amount of play... and as we know its not just talent that makes a player. At least with him he looks to have that covered.

 

[Ray Donovan]

Thats a lot Cruise... has he ever done a film where dies ?


Back to the Operation Future ... I wonder if OB can become another ray of sunshine this year... it would seem we would have at least 5 players that could debut this year.

The whole reason for my demand for higher end talent from kids (single figure picks) is not that we are not getting an debutants that then go on and embed themselves as our best players. Our best players still seem to be closer to 30 than 20. Can Parfitt become that player... in a way if we keeping having debutants does that mean we are not really getting any long term results from the kids we have drafted?

Clarke looks the good but we have only seen such a small amount of play... and as we know its not just talent that makes a player. At least with him he looks to have that covered.

Yeah edge of tomorrow he dies 40 or 50 times mainly because he can't die though outside of that he always wins lol Top Gun 2 is coming haha.

Listen generally the top 10 stretched to 15 is where all the star players are picked. If you get them outside that range it's like a money tree. It happens I know fyfe went late just very rare the recruiters generally with the top end evaluate it very well.

I always like to go back about 4 or 5 years from memory 2013 was a super draft

J.kelly, Bontempelli, Cripps, Sheed all picked in the first 15.

Crouch, merrett in the 20's Ben Brown, Sicily, Allir, Barrass, Langdon, Fantasia all got picked later.

2014 petracca, brayshaw, da goey, Darcy Moore & isaac heeney would of gone top 3 in an open draft.

2015 Oliver, Mills, weideman, curnow, hipwood, Milera, Rioli.

And the fact is clubs need players to build around to win flags and go deep you need superstars. Or guys ready to pass the torch to.

Geelongs midrange picks recently have been brilliant I honestly couldn't fault it recently. To pull Henry, Fogarty, Parfitt, Kelly, Stewart, clark, Narkle, Sav, Menegola, miers, atkins recently that's a top drafting effort.

But is the next star to take over from a Hawkins or a selwood in that group I wouldn't think so. And the mature guys have a much shorter career Stewart, Kelly, menegola 26, 24, 27. So that's the question mark are they going to be just very solid AFL players or will we have a superstar that can lead a club. Henry is where I would have most of my eggs from a development standpoint although half back utilities need to be able to go on and play midfield similar to an elliot yeo.

That's the next generation, in our lifetimes we will not see another golden era like geelong just had with that calibre of players all together. Glad to have lived through it's just better at work when your team is winning everything is better lol