Prediction The Next Five (The Next Four Pt. 2)

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Big fortnight upcoming.

Win both and we’re in up to our necks in this.

We’ve had our slump, time to get the mojo back.
We really should win this we are home, they are just as wounded as us, they just need to get that self belief back
 
We really should win this we are home, they are just as wounded as us, they just need to get that self belief back
They will kill us in the middle. Whilst they too have a few key forwards out their midfielders have the capacity to kick goals whereas ours are impotent.
 

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If we can beat GWS, Dogs, Dockers, Dees and Lions (and lose to Pies, Port and North) then we could/should finish 5th/6th. We would need pies or port to drop a couple of unexpected games to be top 4.

Our games against Port and Collingwood are crucial to the top 4 chances.

Did the ladder predictor and if results go on current form, and we lose to Pies, Port and North, I still have us finishing in the top 4 by a game.
That said, I'm confident against Port and North. I also think Adelaide will win a few more games than I penciled in as they start to get a lot of players back/match fit, which helps us as they play against a lot of the contenders (Geelong, Dees, Port, GWS, Nth).
 
Did the ladder predictor and if results go on current form, and we lose to Pies, Port and North, I still have us finishing in the top 4 by a game.
That said, I'm confident against Port and North. I also think Adelaide will win a few more games than I penciled in as they start to get a lot of players back/match fit, which helps us as they play against a lot of the contenders (Geelong, Dees, Port, GWS, Nth).

Yeah i'd say we are maybe a 60% chance of top 4.

We need to:
  • go 5-2
  • or go 4-3 and hope swans lose 3 or one of port/pies lose 4
that's assuming our percentage is worse.

squiggle is predicting the following percentages:
  • pies 118.5
  • port 117.3
  • eagles 115.8
  • swans 114.2
 
Did the ladder predictor and if results go on current form, and we lose to Pies, Port and North, I still have us finishing in the top 4 by a game.
That said, I'm confident against Port and North. I also think Adelaide will win a few more games than I penciled in as they start to get a lot of players back/match fit, which helps us as they play against a lot of the contenders (Geelong, Dees, Port, GWS, Nth).
The crucial one is the Port game. Drop that and we could be facing an away elim against Hawthorn or the Kangas...
 
The battle for the three top 4 spots:

View attachment 524864
That shows that the games against North and Port are key. Win one and we're pretty confident of top 4. Win both and top 2 is every chance. Winning this week against Collingwood also gives us breathing space to drop one of those games. I think we'll lose against Collingwood but win against Port and North, finishing 2nd or 3rd.
 

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