The next Media rights deal (2023-?)

[The_Wookie]

Time to get this one rolling

 

[Messenger]

So the question I liked answered is:

How badly will Channel 7 and Foxtel need the rights in 2023? What will be their primary revenue streams in six years?

Will those two have enough sets of eyes to attract advertising revenue?

How does Twitter monetise AFL football?

My guess is that the price of the rights won't surge like the last deal. The AFL's worst nightmare would be a number of media players splitting the rights up between them.

 

[Gigantor]

The focus on new entrants misses one crucial point, by 2023, there won't be a difference between STV/FTA and all the other online providers. They'll all be online providers, and just like today, they'll all want the big sports league. In fact, given how fractured the online world will be (more than it is today), there's an argument that there is even more incentive to sign up big sport (and I ain't just talking any sport).

 

[Our Game]

The focus on new entrants misses one crucial point, by 2023, there won't be a difference between STV/FTA and all the other online providers. They'll all be online providers, and just like today, they'll all want the big sports league. In fact, given how fractured the online world will be (more than it is today), there's an argument that there is even more incentive to sign up big sport (and I ain't just talking any sport).

Looks like Amazon might be a big player in the sports market in the future
Kerry Stokes at Seven is already hinting the this last TV deal wont be matched in the future due to falling ratings and advertising revenue.Its said that google and facebook have already taken 4 = 5 billion of the Aussie ads market.
The Age
SEPTEMBER 13 2017 - 5:47PM

Could AFL broadcast rights be next for tech giants?

• Jon Pierik
  

Twitter has reaffirmed its interest in the AFL, as league bosses begin to cast an eye towards the next round of broadcast rights that could involve media behemoth Amazon.

At a content conference in Singapore on Wednesday, Twitter revealed it would continue to embrace posting highlights of the AFL, including in partnership with the league's free-to-air broadcaster, Channel Seven.

• 

Tech giants such as Amazon could enter the fray with broadcasting AFL. Photo: Pat Scala
Twitter also announced new deals with the International Cricket Council and with Seven when it came to tennis' 2017 opening grand slam event, the Australian Open, reinforcing how important sport is to digital media.

Matthew Derella, Twitter's global vice-president of revenue and operations, said "live is at the core of Twitter".

"Asia Pacific is the growth engine of Twitter and we could not be prouder to extend our success with both live streaming and in-stream premium video content in the region," he said.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

So the question I liked answered is:

How badly will Channel 7 and Foxtel need the rights in 2023? What will be their primary revenue streams in six years?

Will those two have enough sets of eyes to attract advertising revenue?

How does Twitter monetise AFL football?

My guess is that the price of the rights won't surge like the last deal. The AFL's worst nightmare would be a number of media players splitting the rights up between them.

When is Australian going to go into recession next? 26 years straight without a recession means each quarter we are closer to one. If it does when they are negotiating that has an significant impact. No one knows whats going to happen in 2021 so its all a bit of navel gazing speculation at the moment.

 

[Our Game]

When is Australian going to go into recession next? 26 years straight without a recession means each quarter we are closer to one. If it does when they are negotiating that has an significant impact. No one knows whats going to happen in 2021 so its all a bit of navel gazing speculation at the moment.

The Turnbull govts new media laws favouring News Corp will also have an impact!

 

[djpaulydemon]

It's hard to see FB, Twitter or Amazon entering the production side of the AFL but then again some senior producers from Fox Footy could easily splinter off and another team of commentators, cameramen etc could be created.

I think a new production team with commentators who are more freeelance with little regard for cross promotion would be well recieved. More competition could be good.

However, you wouldn't want these tech companies siphoning all of the advertising revenue and not putting anything back into the product, which is what is effectively happening for print media currently.

If the market does fracture and more outlets require exclusive rights to 1 or 2 games each then I would hope the AFL would mandate a percentage of games accessible for free, at least the same amount as now, and that these games are shared equitably so everyone can watch their team for free at some stage. It will probably be fairer in the future then the current Fox Footy dominated model we have now.

I don't know about other sports but i feel as though the NBA is already kind of like this. You can get league pass if your a ball fan or a team pass if you only care about your team and watch otner games as they appear on national TV or whatever pay tv you have.

 

[The_Wookie]

 

[Gigantor]

This prediction has been doing the rounds for 20 years now. Perhaps it has finally come to fruition (well, by 2023). There is no denying FTA ratings are on the decline, but will that mean they finally let go of sport, or go after it more vigorously? Or will their share of the action decline, only to be taken up by other players (perhaps hitherto unknown).

If the total money available from third parties does truly diminish, even if just in real terms, isn't it likely that the AFL will look to make up the shortfall by retaining online rights itself (i.e. by not selling them exclusively).

Related to a point raised above, it would be foolish for the industry to run on the basis that revenue is doubling every five years ad infinitum (or whatever it is trending at the moment).

 

[Our Game]

There is always the pay to view option direct from AFL media.

 

[Demonic Ascent]

FTA TV has nothing worth watching anymore except live sport. With the rise of streaming services I can't see how FTA TV stations will survive without live sport. Given that you'd assume the rights will keep increasing at a comparable rate unless these networks find other ways to supplement their revenue (I don't think Stan or Presto will cut it).

 

[RUNVS]

One day when everyone has internet television and a very fast internet connection we will have google buy the rights to the AFL. Google will be able to track how many people are watching every match at every second of the broadcast, and they will know exactly what any sporting event is worth based on those numbers. They will also be able to highly tailor advertising based on the people who are watching.

 

[Our Game]

One day when everyone has internet television and a very fast internet connection we will have google buy the rights to the AFL. Google will be able to track how many people are watching every match at every second of the broadcast, and they will know exactly what any sporting event is worth based on those numbers. They will also be able to highly tailor advertising based on the people who are watching.

Scary!

 

[Frank Gallagher]

The rights will keep increasing in value but the FTA component will fall from here on in.

 

[The Speaker]

When is Australian going to go into recession next? 26 years straight without a recession means each quarter we are closer to one. If it does when they are negotiating that has an significant impact. No one knows whats going to happen in 2021 so its all a bit of navel gazing speculation at the moment.

Soon. There's alarm bells going off pretty much weekly at this point.

Having said that, the idea that sport is recession-proof isn't just a cliche.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Soon. There's alarm bells going off pretty much weekly at this point.

Having said that, the idea that sport is recession-proof isn't just a cliche.

Sport might be recession proof but are TV and media rights? We don't know in Oz as we have never tried to renegotiate big sports TV rights in the middle of a recession.

 

[The Speaker]

Sport might be recession proof but are TV and media rights? We don't know in Oz as we have never tried to renegotiate big sports TV rights in the middle of a recession.

This is true.

There are two ways to think about this, I think. Either a) the size of the recession (which will probably be quite large) and the small market for Australian sport will together have such a severe impact on the country that media rights will be vastly reduced or b) the small size of the market and recession-proof nature of attention to sports and people willing to pay for it will make them of even more relative value.

 

[NoobPie]

Sport might be recession proof but are TV and media rights? We don't know in Oz as we have never tried to renegotiate big sports TV rights in the middle of a recession.

Hmmm, I suspect they largely are. Tv rights deals are 5/6 year contracts for a start.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

On top of the usual discussions surrounding online companies and how they might influence TV rights, the possibility of "bare bones" production companies have to be opened up. Companies that take a blank, raw feed, have commentators who are based in an office building, not at the ground, and don't worry about pre-game shows, in-changing-room interviews and all that - making it a cheaper subscription service for people who just want to watch the games.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DAZN

 

[Gigantor]

On top of the usual discussions surrounding online companies and how they might influence TV rights, the possibility of "bare bones" production companies have to be opened up. Companies that take a blank, raw feed, have commentators who are based in an office building, not at the ground, and don't worry about pre-game shows, in-changing-room interviews and all that - making it a cheaper subscription service for people who just want to watch the games.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DAZN

Although cheap subscriptions probably doesn't correspond with a mega bucks broadcast deal.

 

[Supercoach Bargain]

Lots of variables, ie will 10 want to get back into sports now it has been sold?
It could come down to a decision at 9 or 7 as to whether they will pay for cricket, footy or rugby anymore.
The cold truth is that pay TV is a wasteland for sports that want to go that way exclusively. It is part of the reason rugby union has declined.
Both soccer and rugby are making a thing of the FTA aspects of their deals.
Be it google or amazon or Channel 7, being only on one leads to the game being "content" and nothing more.

 

[JohnZ]

I hope the next Media Rights deal sees the return of 2.10pm footy on a saturday afternoon. A couple of marquee matches each week (Thursday/Friday Nights, Maybe Saturday or Sunday twilight) with 4 or 5 2.10pm matches played around the country. Might need E-gate or Princess Park in Melbourne to make it work, but I see no reason why the EPL can do it and we can't.

 

[Hellgood]

I hope the next Media Rights deal sees the return of 2.10pm footy on a saturday afternoon. A couple of marquee matches each week (Thursday/Friday Nights, Maybe Saturday or Sunday twilight) with 4 or 5 2.10pm matches played around the country. Might need E-gate or Princess Park in Melbourne to make it work, but I see no reason why the EPL can do it and we can't.

Downright stupidity.

Why should half the games for the round all be scheduled to be played simultaneously so we cannibalise our own audience? Just 'cause nostalgia?

 

[JohnZ]

Downright stupidity.

Why should half the games for the round all be scheduled to be played simultaneously so we cannibalise our own audience? Just 'cause nostalgia?

The game is best played in sunshine, how does it cannibalise the game? You can't possibly go to all 9 matches in a week....

 

[NoobPie]

The game is best played in sunshine, how does it cannibalise the game? You can't possibly go to all 9 matches in a week....

In a standard round, currently 3 games are played at night time, 2 twilight (unless one is in perth) and 4 day games. Point is they are staggered across Saturday and Sunday to maximise the TV content.